My friends in Celtic, on Sunday we will gather to watch the league flag fly high above Celtic Park, the Scottish Cup is on display in the boardroom and in six weeks we will be among the first fans to watch the new Champions League format get underway.
Financially, things have literally never been better. A year ago, our net cash position was £72m, aided by the ridiculously inflated price achieved for Jota (love him lots but never a £25m player). Since then, we have banked Champions League money and the bounty from the best commercial deals in the land. We have known worse.
Despite the welcome permanent signing of Paulo Bernardo yesterday, at this stage of the transfer window, we are weaker than we were at the end of the season. There is a substitute striker shaped hole in the squad, which Adam Idah is doing his best to fill. For the (very) hard of thinking, let’s remind ourselves:
You can sign any old rubbish early in the window (with a few exceptions), but clubs who own players in demand do not sell until late August. If you are in doubt, think of Matt O’Riley, who is clearly wanted by clubs in England and Italy, but there is no amount of money Celtic would be prepared to accept until late in the window AND they have backfill. This is how transfer windows work, the whole world knows it, so let’s not pretend we are new to the game.
One year ago, Celtic were hot favourites to win the league. They had just successfully retained their title, had money in the bank with no Champions League qualification worries. After three years which saw a league title, a Europa League final and Champions League participation, our only challengers, Newco, were back in crisis mode.
Michael Beale was sacked in October as their season fell apart. What should have been a procession to Celtic’s third successive title, turned into a mishandled campaign. Our disintegration on the park was so evident, by February I was convinced we would lose the league (don’t think I mentioned that here at the time).
History is the tale of fine margins. Philippe Clement steadied Newco and overturned Celtic’s lead in the table, but the steam escaped from his engine on a field in Dingwall in April. It was a stupid result the like of which Celtic endured earlier in the campaign, but Clement’s ability to push his squad had expired. For Celtic, this was an enormous break.
That campaign is a lesson for anyone who believes we are a shoo-in for four-in-a-row. A few injuries (you can bet we will get them) and a failure to successfully develop supporting players (you can bet……), and we could be plunged into trouble again.
It is popular to poke fun at Clement, but he is a far better manager than Beale, Gerrard or McCoist (who was hopeless). If he stays in Glasgow, he will build his own team and put proper pressure on Brendan, even with a budget which is likely to be significantly below ours.
Our budget and development strategy was easy to ascertain for a long time; not so much now. That £72m net cash position we reported a year ago is likely to be dwarfed when the figures for the year to June 2024 are released; I expect at least £10m on top of that.
When our old pal Peter Lawwell was in charge, he lived to the motto, “Every penny that comes in will be spent over any business cycle you care to mention” – and they still complained! Peter lived at the sharp end of football and once told me, “When people give you money, there is an expectation you will spend it.”
Let’s be clear, having lots of money in the bank is a great thing for a football club; if the tables were turned, you and I would be distraught at the comparison across the city. But that expectation Peter Lawwell talked about remains. Celtic are a football club who have a duty to invest appropriately in football stock.
How we invest is also important. The model which found and developed Matt O’Riley and which works for so many aspiring clubs in Europe, is without question the way forward. Alternative models, where clubs buy players at their peak, earning big wages and without scope to appreciate in value, is full of short-term gain but has zero strategic benefit.
We should also acknowledge a harsh fact. Great managers, though Ange Postecoglou and Brendan Rogers were for us, the last Celtic boss who achieved anything in Europe was Neil Lennon. Celtic are in the Champions League again this season because our coefficient monkeys across the city did very well in Europe for three successive seasons.
I expect we are now at the end of that cycle and Scotland’s coefficient will drop for a period. This will make Champions League income less likely, irrespective of what money we spend or signing strategy we follow.
Our board can expect a peak cash position next summer. Their challenge is to take what is unquestionably an embarrassment of riches, and develop the team and facilities in a manner which grows the top line.
If you think that’s easy, I suggest there is a peak on the Dunning Kruger chart for you. Players competitively valued in the £10m bracket (i.e. by others in the market, not just by Norwich City), tend to have lots of options, usually a few better than the Scottish Premiership. They also have pay offers which would blow apart Celtic’s wage structure. Having all that cash guarantees you nothing.
There are other calls on our resources. Celtic Park is a 20th century stadium and we are already a quarter of the way through the 21st century. Football fans tolerance has changed over the generations. Consumer expectations in the middle of this century will be miles ahead of what we currently call home.
I would like to see a 20-year plan to redevelop Celtic Park. Turnstiles should be at the edge of the footprint, not at the stadium. Fans arrive at the ground early as it is, even without anything to do, but we should get them through the gates and into restaurants, cafes, shops and bars. Not just merchandise shops either.
The South and North stands are poor. Hundreds of office staff work in the South Stand, all office business should be relocated to Barrowfield or another area of the footprint. We are a football club which is short of premium seating area. There is a huge space which can be used for premium seating area right beside where the fans sit. Make it happen, or at the very least, tell us why such a move does not offer a return on investment.
I am more familiar with the North Stand. The top deck has fewer facilities than anywhere else in the stadium. It is also the highest part of the ground and on a warm day like Sunday, the wind will cut you in two. The premium seating area is too small to walk around, never mind properly dispense food.
This stand overhangs the Eastern Necropolis and Janefield St. Before Celtic Park was redeveloped in 1994, Janefield St was a mixed residential and commercial road. Celtic were required to keep it open for traffic. Now Celtic Park is the only property on the street and the road is a local rat-run outside of match days. The whole area should be redeveloped.
I have no idea what it is possible to do in or over the cemetery, but if there is nothing more can be done, we have to acknowledge that the North Stand Upper is under-provided for and price it accordingly. We need more premium seats (South Stand) but we will always need cheap seats. Celtic have to cater for those who cannot afford expensive days out.
If we struggle to attract players to Scotland, I am sure the support would get behind a plan to upgrade our facilities and prepare Celtic Park for the next generation. The next two years could be our last opportunity to consider this action for a very long time.
Right now, I give Celtic a 70% chance of winning the league this season (3% higher than a year ago). There is work to do, even if Matt O’Riley stays, I am not convinced with midfield, defence or attack options. Clement has his hands full but expect him to make the most of what is available to him.
There is no reason to expect anything substantial from the Champions League; the successful Gordon Strachan era is now a distant memory. What we do have, is abundant options, hard earned over decades.
Celtic Quick News started 20-years ago last week. A few months in, when we were losing on the park and letting the league slip away, I noted we were in the early years of a Generation of Domination. It was totally obvious. One large club in Scotland had a plan to pay its bills, the other was playing casino football and would inevitably crash and burn.
20 years on and nothing has changed. Celtic continue to act strategically, Newco act without a thought for tomorrow, despite John Bennett’s words. Until Newco tell their fans they need to spend less on wages and transfers, and live with coming second to Celtic for a period of years in the hope of an improvement in the medium term, nothing will change. We will lose the odd league and cup, but goodness, this Generation thing is outlasting anything we dared dream of.
Celtic is a great gift to us, enjoy every minute of the season, win, lose or draw.
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Ten Men- agree
Good article Paul67. Congrats on 20 years – that’s remarkable considering what you put up with. Scary to think about how quickly those 20 years have passed.
Celtic should send some representatives over to the US to look at some of the modern stadia over here. Just in MN we have NFL, Baseball, Basketball and ice hockey played in amazing facilities. We don’t however need the $13 beers and $25 cheeseburgers! I’m not sure how the remote turnstiles would work in Scotland – people over here are much more patient, and dare I say less likely to abuse the lower security that surrounds it. Nevertheless, Celtic Park has huge potential with the amount of land around there, but it probably needs over $100m spent to make it 21st Century.
stebhoy on 2nd August 2024 3:43 pm
Spot on but such opinions are frowned upon by some on here.
Doff your cap to the board and move on Timmy….
Do like Brendan – “don’t get bogged down with the negative toxic energy that comes around transfers”
https://images.gc.celticfc.com/fit-in/1400×1400/7f8df0a0-5002-11ef-a106-0187fc30bb4a.jpg
https://images.gc.celticfc.com/fit-in/1400×1400/431991a0-50d5-11ef-a672-8d54c0e2d6a2.jpg
Do like Brendan – “don’t get bogged down with the negative toxic energy that comes around transfers”
Do like Brendan – “don’t get bogged down with the negative toxic energy that comes around transfers. I just sit down with Michael and Chris for a long chat and tell them what I expect by 1 September.”
mncelt on 2nd August 2024 4:07 pm
May I ask. What sort of security measures are in place in US venues ?
Cheers and HH.
celtic40me on 2nd August 2024 4:08 pm
Do like Brendan – “don’t get bogged down with the negative toxic energy that comes around transfers”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I am very much looking forward to Sunday. Before that on Saturday I will have the privilege to meet BRRB, and then later on STBF in the Bavaria Brauhaus. A great time to be Celt.
Ten Men- the naysayers will be along soon….
Brendan Rodgers has hailed Celtic’s pre-season as the best he has had in his management career as the Hoops prepare to begin the defence of their Premiership title.
The Scottish champions recorded three wins out of three on their tour of the US while scoring 12 goals in wins over DC United, Chelsea and Manchester City.
And as they prepare to open the new season against Kilmarnock when the Premiership flag is raised at Celtic Park, the manager believes they are in a good place.
Greenpinata – Everything seems very open. No turnstiles as such, just some temporary metal gates with a metal detector at the end, then a couple of stadium personnel scanning tickets. Everyone lines up and walks through in an orderly fashion. Once you’re passed this check, you’re into the concourse and then free to enter the stadium wherever you want. If a few guys decided to push their way in, I don’t know how they would stop them.
mncelt on 2nd August 2024 4:33 pm
Thank you.
I notice that a highly critical analysis of transfers under Peter Lawwell has now been withdrawn from the The Celtic Blog. Anyone know anything about this?
CroftCelt- I think the transfer thread on The Huddleboard, has been pulled,due to it being a waste of time.
log in
Back up striker doubtful for Sunday…..
BOURNESOUPRECIPE on 2ND AUGUST 2024 4:04 PM
MELVIN UDALL on 2ND AUGUST 2024 2:02 PM
Yes, but just one supporters opinion in a sea of green and white. Adam Idah will cost £12M if you believe in some. It’s an open single thread platform to state your opinion, whether you’re a happy clapper, mineshafter, bedwetter, spoiled brat, or whatever 👍
—————
Cheers bud. 👍
Think I qualify for most of those terms. 😂👍
Celtic v Kilmarnock
4.30pm Celtic Park, Glasgow.
We are the only show in town and I’m looking forward to seeing the Green Machine. 👍
Off topic from the transfer hysteria, what’s with the Huns giving Cement a contract extension from 2027 to 2028?
I can easily see him emptied by October, same as Beale.
GM- With the shitshow over there,he had them over a barrel, new improved contract or I’m off….
I just listened to all of the Brendan interview on Sky that was linked earlier and I’m feeling pretty stupid.
I’d read the comments that said Brendan was increasingly frustrated by the progress Celtic Suits were making on getting him the quality he demanded and that it was obvious he was irked, pleading, and putting pressure on the Board. All in all, a dramatic Soap Opera Scenario of deep division and imminent resolution via resignation or sacking.
But having listened carefully to every word and sentence, I heard and detected none of that. I did hear him clarify the Sky guy’s framing of the policy as solely buy young:sell high otherwise we’d have to explain why Kaspar Schmeichel was in the building and Joe Hart before him and Mooy and Forrest and McGregor, Rogic etc;
So- is there a course I can go on to learn how to speak and understand Brendan?I have a thorough-ish knowledge of word meaning and grammatical structures in English but that has been clearly insufficient to detect the scathing criticism of the Celtic Board that other learned Celtic men found so easy to detect. Having studied English to first year level at Uni, I’m wondering if its modern Post-Structuralsim, Deconstructionism or hermeneutics, all of which became popular after I left Uni, that enables people to detect all of the hidden criticism that is not at all present in the simple declarative sentences that Brendan actually said.
Or is Brendan simply lying to cover the Board’s asses by pretending to understand all our restrictions and difficulties, and its not the words I should be listening to but his peculiar body language that needs interpreting and others were able to do this wheras I failed since my screen only showed Brendan from the neck up.
SO,
people dont like me posting business facts.
stadium attendances.
defending company policies i think are not broekn, but actually do what they say in the annual reports.
oh,
and asking question about actually supporting celtic.
he is obsessed with me, so he is, …………….. boo hoo.
Scott McKenna to Las Palmas
So- is there a course I can go on to learn how to speak and understand Brendan?I
it is not what he said …………… it was what he didnt say ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
lol,
this time tomorrow we will be bottom of the league,
SFTB – Great post, despite most of the words being outside my normal vocabulary. 😀
The obsession never ends… what a fud.
Bada – no, surely not. That’s an extra year of salary required to pay him off.
Their Board is more stupid than I thought.
Saint stivs
Surely anyone who loses will be below us with a worse goal difference
and again
Also Kilmarnock would be below us alphabetically
Gene on 2nd August 2024 6:13 pm
Saint stivs
Surely anyone who loses will be below us with a worse goal difference
———-
aye, i am jesting.
anyone getting beat will be below us, then again maybe all the games could end up a draw.
then again, last season when celtic went back to top of the league it took the BBC hours to update the as it stands league table.
Celtic’s Transfer Downsizing Is Obvious Looking At The Timeline. So Is Who Is To Blame.
This article has been removed.
Superbru Update
We are now up to 64 participants. Still time for someone to be number 67.
& punters have still to make their Saturday predictions:- BC Milan, Belmont Brian63, Bognorbhoy, Celtic Mac, Gas, McCaff and Tirconnell still to trap.
THE BLOGGER FORMERLY KNOWN AS GM on @6:11pm
“Their Board is more stupid than I thought.”
………………………..
Maybe they [ Hun board ] have all got Celtic season books so that they can sit among their x 60,000 empty head friends?
Gaz not Gas
setting free the bears for Res. 12 & Oscar Knox on 2nd August 2024 5:59 pm
…..Having studied English to first year level at Uni, I’m wondering if its modern Post-Structuralsim, Deconstructionism or hermeneutics, all of which became popular after I left Uni, that enables people to detect all of the hidden criticism that is not at all present in the simple declarative sentences that Brendan actually said.
……………………….
Like your posts.
Loved this one.
This bit – brilliant!!