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State of the Club Report, summer 2024

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By on CQN BLOG & Comments

My friends in Celtic, on Sunday we will gather to watch the league flag fly high above Celtic Park, the Scottish Cup is on display in the boardroom and in six weeks we will be among the first fans to watch the new Champions League format get underway.

Financially, things have literally never been better.  A year ago, our net cash position was £72m, aided by the ridiculously inflated price achieved for Jota (love him lots but never a £25m player).  Since then, we have banked Champions League money and the bounty from the best commercial deals in the land.  We have known worse.

Despite the welcome permanent signing of Paulo Bernardo yesterday, at this stage of the transfer window, we are weaker than we were at the end of the season.  There is a substitute striker shaped hole in the squad, which Adam Idah is doing his best to fill. For the (very) hard of thinking, let’s remind ourselves:

You can sign any old rubbish early in the window (with a few exceptions), but clubs who own players in demand do not sell until late August.  If you are in doubt, think of Matt O’Riley, who is clearly wanted by clubs in England and Italy, but there is no amount of money Celtic would be prepared to accept until late in the window AND they have backfill.  This is how transfer windows work, the whole world knows it, so let’s not pretend we are new to the game.

One year ago, Celtic were hot favourites to win the league.  They had just successfully retained their title, had money in the bank with no Champions League qualification worries.  After three years which saw a league title, a Europa League final and Champions League participation, our only challengers, Newco, were back in crisis mode.

Michael Beale was sacked in October as their season fell apart.  What should have been a procession to Celtic’s third successive title, turned into a mishandled campaign.  Our disintegration on the park was so evident, by February I was convinced we would lose the league (don’t think I mentioned that here at the time).

History is the tale of fine margins.  Philippe Clement steadied Newco and overturned Celtic’s lead in the table, but the steam escaped from his engine on a field in Dingwall in April.  It was a stupid result the like of which Celtic endured earlier in the campaign, but Clement’s ability to push his squad had expired.  For Celtic, this was an enormous break.

That campaign is a lesson for anyone who believes we are a shoo-in for four-in-a-row.  A few injuries (you can bet we will get them) and a failure to successfully develop supporting players (you can bet……), and we could be plunged into trouble again.

It is popular to poke fun at Clement, but he is a far better manager than Beale, Gerrard or McCoist (who was hopeless).  If he stays in Glasgow, he will build his own team and put proper pressure on Brendan, even with a budget which is likely to be significantly below ours.

Our budget and development strategy was easy to ascertain for a long time; not so much now.  That £72m net cash position we reported a year ago is likely to be dwarfed when the figures for the year to June 2024 are released; I expect at least £10m on top of that.

When our old pal Peter Lawwell was in charge, he lived to the motto, “Every penny that comes in will be spent over any business cycle you care to mention” – and they still complained!  Peter lived at the sharp end of football and once told me, “When people give you money, there is an expectation you will spend it.”

Let’s be clear, having lots of money in the bank is a great thing for a football club; if the tables were turned, you and I would be distraught at the comparison across the city.  But that expectation Peter Lawwell talked about remains.  Celtic are a football club who have a duty to invest appropriately in football stock.

How we invest is also important.  The model which found and developed Matt O’Riley and which works for so many aspiring clubs in Europe, is without question the way forward.  Alternative models, where clubs buy players at their peak, earning big wages and without scope to appreciate in value, is full of short-term gain but has zero strategic benefit.

We should also acknowledge a harsh fact.  Great managers, though Ange Postecoglou and Brendan Rogers were for us, the last Celtic boss who achieved anything in Europe was Neil Lennon.  Celtic are in the Champions League again this season because our coefficient monkeys across the city did very well in Europe for three successive seasons.

I expect we are now at the end of that cycle and Scotland’s coefficient will drop for a period.  This will make Champions League income less likely, irrespective of what money we spend or signing strategy we follow.

Our board can expect a peak cash position next summer.  Their challenge is to take what is unquestionably an embarrassment of riches, and develop the team and facilities in a manner which grows the top line.

If you think that’s easy, I suggest there is a peak on the Dunning Kruger chart for you.  Players competitively valued in the £10m bracket (i.e. by others in the market, not just by Norwich City), tend to have lots of options, usually a few better than the Scottish Premiership.  They also have pay offers which would blow apart Celtic’s wage structure.  Having all that cash guarantees you nothing.

There are other calls on our resources.  Celtic Park is a 20th century stadium and we are already a quarter of the way through the 21st century.  Football fans tolerance has changed over the generations.  Consumer expectations in the middle of this century will be miles ahead of what we currently call home.

I would like to see a 20-year plan to redevelop Celtic Park. Turnstiles should be at the edge of the footprint, not at the stadium.  Fans arrive at the ground early as it is, even without anything to do, but we should get them through the gates and into restaurants, cafes, shops and bars.  Not just merchandise shops either.

The South and North stands are poor.  Hundreds of office staff work in the South Stand, all office business should be relocated to Barrowfield or another area of the footprint.  We are a football club which is short of premium seating area.  There is a huge space which can be used for premium seating area right beside where the fans sit.  Make it happen, or at the very least, tell us why such a move does not offer a return on investment.

I am more familiar with the North Stand.  The top deck has fewer facilities than anywhere else in the stadium.  It is also the highest part of the ground and on a warm day like Sunday, the wind will cut you in two.  The premium seating area is too small to walk around, never mind properly dispense food.

This stand overhangs the Eastern Necropolis and Janefield St.  Before Celtic Park was redeveloped in 1994, Janefield St was a mixed residential and commercial road.  Celtic were required to keep it open for traffic.  Now Celtic Park is the only property on the street and the road is a local rat-run outside of match days.  The whole area should be redeveloped.

I have no idea what it is possible to do in or over the cemetery, but if there is nothing more can be done, we have to acknowledge that the North Stand Upper is under-provided for and price it accordingly.  We need more premium seats (South Stand) but we will always need cheap seats.  Celtic have to cater for those who cannot afford expensive days out.

If we struggle to attract players to Scotland, I am sure the support would get behind a plan to upgrade our facilities and prepare Celtic Park for the next generation.  The next two years could be our last opportunity to consider this action for a very long time.

Right now, I give Celtic a 70% chance of winning the league this season (3% higher than a year ago).  There is work to do, even if Matt O’Riley stays, I am not convinced with midfield, defence or attack options.  Clement has his hands full but expect him to make the most of what is available to him.

There is no reason to expect anything substantial from the Champions League; the successful Gordon Strachan era is now a distant memory.  What we do have, is abundant options, hard earned over decades.

Celtic Quick News started 20-years ago last week.  A few months in, when we were losing on the park and letting the league slip away, I noted we were in the early years of a Generation of Domination.  It was totally obvious.  One large club in Scotland had a plan to pay its bills, the other was playing casino football and would inevitably crash and burn.

20 years on and nothing has changed.  Celtic continue to act strategically, Newco act without a thought for tomorrow, despite John Bennett’s words.  Until Newco tell their fans they need to spend less on wages and transfers, and live with coming second to Celtic for a period of years in the hope of an improvement in the medium term, nothing will change.  We will lose the odd league and cup, but goodness, this Generation thing is outlasting anything we dared dream of.

Celtic is a great gift to us, enjoy every minute of the season, win, lose or draw.

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  1. Greenpinata on

    The Celtic board may be many things, but they are not stupid.

     

     

    No ” Rangers” is bad for business. May require the top tier covers to be dusted down, and remove a major attraction for TV and sponsors

     

     

    In saying that we dont need to roll out the red caroet for them at our house. In fact our invitation should be withdrawn even at this late stage ststing they have broken the “deal” in that Greyskull is currently out of the equation.

     

     

    HH.

     

     

    HH.

  3. Parkheadcumsalford on

    Still can’t move forward unless I contribute.

     

     

    Can’t really understand why people come on here to simply vilify Paul67. Why don’t they simply avoid CQN if they can’t stand Paul67’s opinions? Beats me.

  4. Melvin Udall on

    Same old, same old…

     

     

    Hearts 0-0 Rangers

     

    Hearts break from the Rangers corner and Kenneth Vargas goes down under a James Tavernier challenge on halfway.

     

    The home support are fuming that hasn’t resulted in a foul, as is Vargas.

     

     

    Michael Stewart

     

    Former Hearts midfielder on BBC Sportsound

     

    I don’t think there’s any doubt that Vargas gets there first. It’s a free-kick.

  11. bognorbhoy on

    It’s really good that wee wullie has sorted out the controversial hand ball decisions , he said he had spoken to the hun manager , must have told him , nay bother Philippe , you’ll get all the calls .

     

    Andrew still doing his job as well …

  12. bournesouprecipe on

    Good to see we’re not getting penalties for handball this year, the same as last year.

  18. bournesouprecipe on

    The ‘ new interpretation’ of handball is the same as the old interpretation…….. for Sevco

  19. Turkeybhoy on

    I will reserve judgement on the penalty until I see similar. Collum did say he was changing the rule.No breath being held.Thinking back to the penalty gave against us last season there,that one should have been awarded,and Barron,3 months in jail.

  20. AuroraBorealis79 on

    Half-time in the loving hun opener. Mini’s seem to be giving sevco a hard time in the first 45. Both teams have an awful pass accuracy.

     

     

    For all the headlines witnessed for the team that supposedly won the most signings in July cup, I do not see any fresh names on the field of play.

     

     

    I think they have serious problems. Win, lose or draw today. I see them in serious title fight for the second place cup

  21. quadrophenian on

    The Hertz RB Taylor is bursting with raw energy and strength; shame he’s not a natural LB.

     

    Home side look tigerish; the only Jambo who looks a tad disinterested is Barrie McKay.

  25. The Blogger Formerly Known As GM on

    Did the huns miss penalty. Shortie says it’s goaless at half time.

  26. leftclicktic on

    Turkeybhoy

     

    I pop on to FF now and again.

     

    Jefte got slaughtered as worst left back they had seen,after a couple of friendlies.

  31. Maestro on

    Hearts can win this if they want to I feel here.

     

    Sevco getting desperate diving all over the park.

  32. Chairbhoy on

    AURORABOREALIS79 @ 1:26 PM,

     

     

    If you are interested…

     

     

    …“Trio make debuts for Hearts

     

     

    There are three debuts in the Hearts team for the opening game of the new season as full-backs Gerald Taylor and James Penrice, plus midfielder Yan Dhana, all start.

     

     

    Fellow new recruits Daniel Oyegoke, Blair Spittal and Malachi Boateng are on the bench, with the latter’s signing only announced this morning.”

     

     

    Hail Hail

  33. AuroraBorealis79 on

    Chairbhoy, I was making reference to all the players sevco had supposedly signed. The media headlines & the sevco moonbeams had suggested they had signed around 12 players

  34. Fassreifen on

    Sevco looking even worse than last season. I expect Nick Walsh to amend that shortly.

  40. AuroraBorealis79 on

    Full time 0-0 the minis had a great opportunity but gave their masters a reprieve

     

     

    TRFC are rotten

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