What grates with me is that the issue on how to end the Scottish league season is portrayed as an ethical question. If so, ethics are remarkably subjective.
How would I feel if Newco had not imploded (more on that if/when the time comes) so magnificently in the weeks? Pretty upset that they because of the slimmest of leads, they were able to ‘Stop the Nine’ without Celtic having a chance to turn things around. A cherished piece of our narrative over these last nine years would have vanished into thin air.
Conversely, what would Douglas Park have to say on the matter, if Steve Gerrard was able to cope with the likes of Hamilton Accies at home, would he be campaigning for the season to become null and void? Don’t be ridiculous. They would rename one side of the ground the 2020 Stand.
Anyone who claims they would not advocate the exact opposite view, if their team was due to win/lose a league instead of lose/win is a liar or a self-deceiving fool. This is not an ethical question and anyone who suggests it is, is being unethical. It is a pragmatic question:
Will this make you a winner or a loser?
Does this make sense for Scottish football as a whole?
The winners and those without any skin in the game voted Yes. Only losers voted No. If Celtic were behind Newco I would want the league null and void to allow us to win nine-in-a-row next season, for purely selfish reasons, not because a moral authority understood it to be right.
Talking about ethics, respect to Roma players, who have agreed to take no pay for four months, while making up shortfalls in non-player wages from their own pockets. Off the scale ethical standards. More on this, and Celtic player and executive pay cuts, later. Many clubs will fall during the crisis, Roma won’t be one of them.
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‘GG on 21ST APRIL 2020 2:01 AM
Discussion with my daughter on the herd immunity theory has left me with a number of questions for the resident epidemiologists.
If we continue to practice social distancing and continue the confinement, are we merely slowing down the full extent of the crisis?
Will the number of casualties be similar but just take longer to reach?
Is there an alternative?
Are the number of cases much higher but unreported because many of those infected had mild symptoms and didn’t identify as ill with the virus?
Have these folks developed immunity and if so can their antibodies be harvested to treat seriously ill patients and or the vulnerable like myself?
Can they be the ones who can first return to work and help create the fabled or perhaps mythical herd immunity?
————-
Good morning. Disclaimer! I’m not a medic but I work with medics in this field.
Your first point is essentially correct. Flattening the curve’ was/is about making sure the nhs didn’t get flooded to breaking point with emergency cases. As someone smartly observed, just because we hide indoors cos there’s something scary and dangerous outside, doesn’t mean it’ll go away by the time we go out again.
There’s a lot of discussion as to whether the many who had ‘terrible colds’ over the winter had a variant or precursor.
As for immunity for survivors, there was quite a worrying report a few days ago that stated that there was no firm evidence as yet, that survivors wouldn’t catch it a second time.
In truth, we know so little about the virus. A lack of systematic testing in most major nations (UK and USA being prime egs) means we don’t really know accurate figures. Let alone be in a position to use them to extrapolate to conclusions.
The race is on to discover a vaccine. HIV drugs offer a good starting point as Covid leaches into system in a similar fashion to HIV. Whether that will lead to true international collaboration to save the masses or mass profits for individual companies, time will tell. It could also see vaccines becoming the new global economic arms race?
Those presently being viewed as likely candidates in Germany for eg are the ones associated with high value production. Tech, cars,etc. In order to get the economy moving (though why producing more cars at this time of lockdown to get the economy moving rather escapes me!)
And of course footballers! (I wonder how we’d feel if we lost a Bhoy…..or any player we watched …..to Covid if we reopened too swiftly?)
Looking back to look forward, might Covid be (until mass vaccination) the 21st century tuberculosis? The old ’no hawking, no spitting’ signs of the old trams and buses taking on new relevance. With off site, infections disease hospitals for those affected. And the poor and old largely succumbing?
In the meantime, stay in and stay safe.
HH jg
That was a great read back!
HARRY POTTER, 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 etc
Field of Dreams. (Greet every time!)
Looks like the good weather will continue until the end of the week.
Small blessings.
Stay safe!
First day out of the house since 20th March
A wee walk around the Calder for just short of an hour , logging onto work now
I’ll try it tomorrow if I can manage upstairs to bed tonight never mind out tomorrow
BT
Take care!
Phil there is a hill called the ‘peck brae’ because of the gradient , I’ll walk the reverse direction so it’s at start of walk and not end next time
Take care big man
1 Way out West
2 The man who came to dinner
3 Its a mad mad mad mad world
4 Planes trains and automobiles
5 The Blues Brothers
6 . The third man
7. The Maltese Falcon
8. Apocalypse Now
9. Phsyco
10 The birds
BT
You too!
KING LUBO..
Here is my second TEN in a Row..
Casablanca.
The Searchers.
Each Dawn I Die. ….Cagney …superb.
The Producers ( Original). ….Zero Mostel and Gene Wilder.
Laurel and Hardy…Sons of the Desert ?..Foreign Legion .
The Apartment.
High Anxiety..Mel Brooks..superb.
The Informer…IRA…Victor McLaglan.
How the West was Won.
The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly. ( Big Clint and Eli Wallach, Lee Van Cleef…all superb.
HH
Good morning CQN from another beautiful sunny day in the Garngad
This is the start of my 5th week of lockdown and every day has been sunny, to try and keep our spirits up is the big man upstairs trying to help us?
Some great posts reading back.
Some great films as well.
D. :)
Hoi Jimmy there will only be 1 10IAR
Hail Hail
D. :)
Good Morning CQN
That was interesting on the news there
So Robert Jenryck ( yes the Tory who travelled 150 mile to his 2nd home, then another 40 miles to visit his parents) – gave the goverment briefing on Saturday
Stating the PPE from Turkey would arrive on Sunday ?
Now it’s being pointed out the order for this PPE was not placed until Sunday
It’s now Tues, is the order in the U.K. Yet ???
How many lies will this goverment get away with
DAVID66…
your right mate…what was I thinking ?
LOL.
Other favourites of mine are…
High Anxiety ( I have mentioned it already )… and The History of the World…Both with Mel Brooks.
A Fistful of Dollars.
For a Few Dollars More… ( The Huns EBT’s)
The Great Escape…. ( Featuring Hearts Ann Budge…IF she saves her mob from being Relegated ?)
LOL.
HH
The Quiet man
Once upon a time in America
Shawshank redemption
Pulp Fiction
The Godfather trilogy
The Big Red One
The Deer Hunter
Good Morning Vietnam
The wind that shakes the Barley
Angels with dirty Faces
It’ll change by lunchtime no doubt
NORRIEM
How many lies will this government get away with?
——————————————
As many as it takes to hide their incompetence, and protect their greed and positions.
I was going to add shame to the list.but they have no shame.
I am a LORD OF THE RINGS fan but was a wee bit disappointed with the films.
Too much missed out and too many changes from the book.
GG,
Thanks.
I also remember my dad bringing in the ole Fry’s Five Bhoys chocolate. I have always had this image of him coming into the bedroom in the evening and delivering a bar of Five Bhoys to me and my sister and also a bar of Caramac. These are the two that I remember from my childhood.
So many great films in these posts.
D. :)
Just had this sent to me from Oktoberfest.de website, hardly surprising when you consider the numbers visiting and there is absolutely no chance of social distancing.
I’ll just have to put an asterisk next to next year’s visit which would be 34 IAR 😉
Cancelled: Oktoberfest 2020 cannot take place
Due to the novel coronavirus, there will be no Wiesn 2020
Tue 04/21/20 • 08:46 am
Unfortunately, the largest beer festival in the world cannot take place in 2020 due to the spread of Covid-19. Bavaria’s Minister President Markus Söder and Munich’s Lord Mayor Dieter Reiter cancelled the Wiesn on April 21, 2020 in a joint press conference.
The risks are too high: why Oktoberfest 2020 had to be cancelled
In a joint declaration, Bavaria’s Minister-President Markus Söder and Munich’s Lord Mayor Dieter Reiter decided: The risk for the people is too high to let the Wiesn 2020 take place. “It is about the biggest and most beautiful festival in the world”, said Söder at the press conference in the Bavarian State Chancellery, but: “We are living in different times. And living with Corona means living carefully. The greatest sensitivity applies to celebrations.”
The Oktoberfest lives from the atmosphere in the full tents, from many people celebrating together – but one has to take care of the Bavarian population and of course of the visitors from all over the world. In all likelihood, 2021 will see a particularly beautiful and intensive celebration together again: at the Oktoberfest from 18 September 2021.
Lord Mayor Reiter: “It’s a sad day for me!”
“It’s a quite sad day for me today,” said Lord Mayor Dieter Reiter, “several hearts are beating in my chest.” The fact that the Wiesn 2020 cannot take place is “a bitter pill to swallow”, not only because of the many Munich residents and Bavarians who love their Oktoberfest so much, but of course also because of its economic significance for the city of Munich. The decision had not been taken lightly, but they no longer wanted to give the population hope. “We hope that next year we can make it up together!”
Shawshank redemption but when he plays a Celtic or Irish song on the record player.
😂😂😂
D. :)
Thog
I remember going to my local wee shop and buying the current issue of Nme and a bar of Milk Tray every week.
HH
Phil
from Once Upon a Time in America
Friendship and Love
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqTX3obKd8U
Aw Naw No Ennio Morricone Oan Anaw Noooo CSC
JAMESGANG on 21ST APRIL 2020 7:50 AM
There seems to be some doubt about whether people who have recovered from Covid 19 acquire long term immunity, and if it turns out that they don’t then herd immunity can’t happen.
Until that question can be answered with certainty (which will necessarily take a long time) then on a precautionary basis policy should be assume that there is no way to reach herd immunity.
So that then leaves the possibility of developing a vaccine or more effective ways of treating the condition as understanding of its effects improve. There are reports that some of the initial assumptions about how the disease operates may have been wrong and that eg ventilating patients might not always be the best course of action.
The upshot is that the best way forward is to reduce the rate of spread to give the doctors and the scientists time to get on top of things. That means social distancing is here to stay for the foreseeable future probably varying in severity to mirror the relative rate of spread of the virus.
The consequences for football, and other activities involving mass gatherings, are probably going to be drastic and long lasting.
And I’m not sure that £40 m in the bank is going to shield Celtic from the new reality for very long.
Havent seen anything from SOT………..
Hope he’s okay?
I bet he has an interesting take on the favourite film thing…..
‘GG @ 2:01 AM,
Discussion with my daughter on the herd immunity theory has left me with a number of questions for the resident epidemiologists.
If we continue to practice social distancing and continue the confinement, are we merely slowing down the full extent of the crisis?
Will the number of casualties be similar but just take longer to reach?
Is there an alternative?
Are the number of cases much higher but unreported because many of those infected had mild symptoms and didn’t identify as ill with the virus?
Have these folks developed immunity and if so can their antibodies be harvested to treat seriously ill patients and or the vulnerable like myself?
Can they be the ones who can first return to work and help create the fabled or perhaps mythical herd immunity?
You raise a number of excellent questions, as you are aware I’m no epidemiologists, resident or otherwise but in my current role I’m very much focussed with assisting to support what we regard as our “dementia family” (I was assisting with autism support until very recently, though assisting people living with dementia is not new to me.)
So working in an environment where our key role is to protect a very vulnerable group it has obviously made me very curious about Covid-19.
Of course you are right, the current practices and lockdown is basic infection control and has little impact on the virus save slowing the spread.
Why is that important? Well to my mind it’s interesting we are talking about this on a blog discussing ethics in football. My take is, we are now having to question our society’s ethics.
Let’s take the “fabled or perhaps mythical” herd immunity you raise…
The experts tell us that 60% of the populace have to have immunity to “thwart” the virus. Now that can be through the populace being “naturally” infected, being vaccinated or more likely a combination of both. What of a new virus, it will take years to develop an efficent vaccine. So what if a country were to go down the route of trying to achieve “natural” herd immunity as the quickest and least disruptive way economically of dealing with the pandemic.
Apart from, in my opinion, being morally abhorent, this approach does NOT mean, no preperation and very little cost.
You may remember the history of the great plague of London 1666. The population of London was very much smaller than it is today, yet it is said some of those burials went from Blackheath to Gravesend – 56 miles.
What type of preparedness would you have to make for that scenario today. Doesn’t bare thinking about does it!?
A couple of countries who have coped reasonable well are South Korea and New Zealand, they had different approaches…
South Korea very quickly took an established response, one that they were already prepared for, it is what the WHO’s advice is based on – countries should – detect, test, treat, isolate, trace, and mobilize their people in the response.
The Koreans are continuing this policy and have no lockdown to come out of. If you are not an effected individual or group it is business as usual, of course stringent infection control measures have been in place from day one and due to previous SARs outbreaks the populace are well educated on what this entails. The Koreans should be able to continue these policies until the virus is “beat” and a vaccine is available.
New Zealand took “urgent and aggressive” action by going quickly into a hard (level 4) lockdown. It seems to have worked well for them. Of course they still have to come out of the lockdown and I believe have announced a level 3 easing and will monitor whether another wave happens.
Still – detect, test, treat, isolate, trace, is a must and no country is safely going to come out of lockdown without it.
You may remember the Scottish nurse who returned from Sierra Leone – Pauline Cafferkey she was an aid worker who contracted Ebola virus disease in 2014.
Remember what happened.!? Ebola was detected and she was isolated and treated, all the folk she had come into contact with were traced and tested.
In an ideal world that is how all High Consequence Infectious Diseases (HCID) are dealt with. You may have noticed the discussion on CQN regarding the down grading of Covid-19 from a HCID.
This is my, and only my take when I read that was happening last month…
The UK Government did not have sufficient resources; the facilities, expertise, equipment, accesories, tests, PPE etc to deal with Covid-19 as a HCID. So they down graded it, I believe what has occurred since has proven my point, it has to me at least.
Can you imagine the law suits the authorities, NHS, and the Government etc would be facing by allowing healthcare professionals and clinicians to “tackle” an HCID, as under resourced and under equiped as they have been?
Another discussion on CQN was the mortality rate (CFR) of Covid-19. You may have read with interest and intrigue TBB’s take on the data, no doubt a fhella that enjoys crunching the numbers and it offered us some great insights, however one factor came out time and time again, we don’t have anything like enough reliable data to make firm conclusions.
Yet, your question – Are the number of cases much higher but unreported because many of those infected had mild symptoms and didn’t identify as ill with the virus? – is worth addressing
For that reason I’m going with the flu’s 1% CFR, let me say here and now I’m not in any way, shape or form comparing these diseases, it is only to get a ball park figure in the absence of qualified data, and Covid-19 and the flu both have an airborne transmission virus.
Now with over 15,000 Hospital deaths and over 5,000 (maybe a lot more) in Care Homes and the community, we can say at least 20,000 Covid-19 related fatalities in the UK.
Now if we take a CFR of 1%, that means 2 million people have already caught the virus in the UK. That is from asymptomatic to fatalities. It is a guess but gives you a ballpark.
If we takes 60% of a population to be infected in order to obtain herd immunity, if the population of the UK is 67 million, then 40 million will have to be infected or vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.
The usual caveats apply… this is just some random thoughts and better informed wiser folk than I correcting any of the above will be welcome.
Stay safe
Hail Hail
BANKIEBHOY1 on 21ST APRIL 2020 9:28 AM
Havent seen anything from SOT………..
Hope he’s okay?
###
I was going to post something similar.
Chairbhoy. 9.28.
In my opinion, that’s an excellent post.
It was also a good read.
Thank you.
Cooooooooooooooooooooooood morning
C………………………………..
Q……………………………..
N……………………………..
AnothergloriousdayontheDon
Chairbhoy
An excellent post with much to absorb , you are obviously a deep thinker ,
I wish you well in your profession .
In no particular order………………
Jaws
The green mile
Shawshank redemption
Armageddon
Dune
Bladerunner
Highlander
Castaway
The Return of the King
Kingdom of heaven
I see our friend Ewan at the guardian has a somewhat hysterical article up today about the passed resolution and his calls for an independent investigation.
Almost all of his points were answered in a very straight forward manner by Les Gray on Saturday’s sport sound.
I would suggest Ewan listen to that podcast but alas the comments section below the article is deactivated.
I call for an independent investigation into why readers are being censored…
Like a few guys have posted, I hope all is well with SoT.
JIMMYNOTPAUL @ 9:41 AM, SPIRITOF67 @ 10:01 AM,
Thank you. Hope you and yours are coping.
Yes, overthinking is something I do, getting things clear in my own mind helps – when things are out of my control it makes me feel vulnerable this is one way I deal with anxieties. I’ve been going back and forth with my eldest on this one…
Your good wishes are much appreciated and reciprocated.
Hail Hail
Mesut Ozil has refused a 12.5% pay cut at Arsenal, hes on 350k a week, it would be refunded if they made CL next season, Arsenal have probably leaked it to try and chase the wee rat
Loving film suggestions gave me a few to rediscover
No particular order and sure it would change tomorrow
Wonderful Life
Shawshank
Schindlers list
One flew over the cuckoos nest
Unglorious bastards
In Bruges
Usual suspects
To kill a mockingbird
Godfather
Silence of the lambs
I don’t know and don’t care about who to blame for the ‘release’ of this virus. All I know is that it is easily spread and I am in the vulnerable at risk category due to age and underlying health conditions. So I am staying at home and in garden while my wife does the essential shopping.
The landlord of a nearby pub died from it last week. He had been to the Cheltenham festival.
!!BADA BING!! on 21ST APRIL 2020 10:52 AM
Mesut Ozil has refused a 12.5% pay cut at Arsenal, hes on 350k a week, it would be refunded if they made CL next season, Arsenal have probably leaked it to try and chase the wee rat
###
Maybe the player realises that the days of mega wages for players are over and he’s taking everything he can while he can.
The calls for players to take wage cuts all assume the current situation is a short lived aberration and things will soon get back to the way they were. I’m not so sure.
Enjoyed the films topic. I found it, personally, really wide ranging, so to help myself I picked ten that I actually wet to ‘the pictures’ to see:
The searchers
West Side Story
Lion in Winter
Ben Hur
The Birds
Some Like it Hot
Spartacus
In the Heat of the Night
The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance (Print the Legend)
Pink Panther
Bit of age giveaway!!
Some good contributions this morning on Covid etc, thanks guys. Thought I’d lob in my tuppence-worth of ill-informed guff in reply.
As is becoming increasingly apparent, we know so little about this virus that drawing any conclusions is fraught, and at best – even those of the experts – are informed guesses. It also means the topic is fertile ground for those of a disingenuous disposition, seeking to use misinformation to influence attitudes and inevitably profit from it, one way or another.
A couple of things worth bearing in mind though. First up, the topic of immunity. As many have noted, there is doubt as to what extent immunity is acquired, whether short term, medium term or at all. It’s considered highly likely that infection provides immunity at least in the short term – months – or medium term – >12 months – but we won’t know until we can look back at see. Come back in a year, but the smart money is on at least some level of protecting immune response.
Second, whatever level of immunity is acquired through infection is most likely to be similar to any immunity acquired through vaccination. Vaccination trains the immune system to recognise and respond to the protein ‘signature’ of the virus. If infection provides 12 months protection, then vaccination will likely provide a similar level.
Third, there’s a world of difference between a treatment and a vaccine. A treatment – for example antiretroviral drugs used for HIV currently being trialled for Covid-19 – is provided only to those who are infected. It is not preventative. It (hopefully) reduces the severity of illness and the number of fatalities, but does not impact on the number of those infected. Treatment helps the herd acquire immunity – if immunity can be acquired – without the intolerable death rate.
A vaccine on the other hand serves to protect from infection in the first place. See earlier point above.
Finally, taken together, the prize for the organisation that develops a vaccine is off the scale. Virtually the entire world needs to be vaccinated, maybe 7 Billion doses. At $X per dose. Provided every 12 months. Generic vaccines are $10-20 per dose. Licensed vaccines are in the range $60-150 per dose.
Believe me, the simple arithmetic was done months ago by folk we’ll never hear of, and all available hands have been on the research pumps since. Perhaps the commercial incentive is so profound that we’ll break all records in the time it takes to develop a vaccine.
Equally, the commercial prize also serves as an incentive to cut corners in terms of safety and efficacy of candidate vaccines, and indeed, to manipulate investment decisions. Folk will make huge sums of money by riding investor optimism on the back of snake oil PR. It is very difficult at the moment to distinguish between good science and good PR.
In all of it, I can’t get away from the approach taken in South Korea, using all available means (some difficult from a privacy perspective) to surveil the population, test the community, then trace and isolate contacts of suspected cases. So-called T-T-I.
We’re told the UK will transition to just such a T-T-I approach in the coming weeks, but I see little if any evidence that the considerable human resources for testing and tracing are being recruited and trained, or that the testing capacity is in place, or that the ICT infrastructure that supports it all is being procured and commissioned.
Seems to me that just about the worst thing we could do right now is lift lockdown, open the doors again and have a lip service T-T-I program comprising limited testing, inadequate tracing and voluntary isolation. That’s how we got into this position in the first place, and it serves only to make repeat the experience of the past six weeks highly probable.
Apols for the rambling guff.
TBB