The gambler’s manager

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The reaction of Hearts fans to Neil Critchley’s appointment as Hearts manager reminded me of the summer of 2005, when Gordon Strachan arrived at Celtic.  Gordon had been out of work for over a year and had been seen by some supporters as a regressive step.

He had an impossible task: follow Martin O’Neill, a club legend, win the league and do so without the financial overspend which characterised every season under Martin (including the fabled Seville season).

By any objective measure, Gordon was an outstanding success.  He picked up a squad which, without Henrik Larsson,  died on its feet the previous season, and just like Ange Postecoglou in 2021, had a disastrous Champions League qualifying campaign, but built a squad which won the league and twice took us to the last 16 of Europe’s top table.

Hearts fans do not like Critchley because he was sacked by Blackpool after a year in the post and lasted less than three months at Queens Park Rangers (where he was asked to pick up the pieces after Michael Beale left for Newco).

I know little about Critchley but there is one reason to believe he will be a success – his appointment was recommended by Brighton owner and potential Hearts investor, Tony Bloom.  Bloom is a professional gambler and one of the sharpest minds in analytics.

There are two things Bloom wants from his managers: excel in his valuable and confidential Key Performance Indicators, and just as importantly, be onboard with the plan.  KPIs in football, including management, are notoriously difficult to assess, as an individual’s performance is overwhelmingly dependent on the performance of external factors.

Bloom’s method of assessing: Critchley or Naismith, O’Riley or Hatate, has made him enormously effective.  Just as importantly, even amateur gamblers like me would bet that Critchley will do what he is told to do in building and developing the squad.

There is no room for managerial egos, gurus do not exist in football, and for clubs to reach their potential, development plans need to be followed ruthlessly.

It is unlikely Brighton or Hearts will ever win their leagues, but with ruthless devotion to analytics so seldom followed at other clubs, they have a punter’s chance.  Keep your eye on Bloom; everyone else is playing catch up.

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  1. glendalystonsils on

    Unlike MO’N /Strachan , no appointment Hearts could make to replace Naismith would be a retrograde step . A thoroughly rotten manager and a thoroughly rotten individual .

  2. Bloom took St Gilloise from the depths in Belgium to the top in a handful of years.Not an easy task.They actually won the league last year,but lost it in the crazy play off system they have there.He is doing something right.Brighton have a mountain to climb,challenging for a top 4 place,but small steps every season until they manage it,is on the cards.

     

    Big Tony coming on a ton.Scotland games been great for him.

  3. Agree Paul; WGS was brilliant and undervalued in almost equal measure in his work with us; a smashing guy!

     

     

    Disagree with the claim, Paul, that Bloom must be a wealthy genius for bringing in a manager like Critchley. While Dermot is somehow an eejit (yet an even wealthier guy than Bloom) for bringing back Brendan !

     

     

    For if fitba was solely about analytics, then anyone with a computer or anyone of oor pals on the huddle breakdown could have every team they consulted to sitting at the top of any league they chose.

     

     

    R.E.S.P.E.C.T CSC

  4. lets all do the huddle on

    has Paul67 went all tabloid on us?

     

     

    he has put up a story with the following headline –

     

     

    “WHY CELTIC CELEBRATED THEIR LAST DONS DEFEAT IN PARADISE”

     

     

    we didnt celebrate the defeat, thats not what the celebrations were for as he knows perfectly well as he described the truth in the story itself.

     

     

    so putting up a headline which completely mis-represents the story? now where else do we see those tactics employed? 🤔

     

     

    had a rag tabloid put up a similar headline the day after that game Paul67 would have been all over it like a rash so a bit sad to see him use that tactic.

  5. Paul writes that Gordon was “seen as a retrograde step by some” – yes indeed.

     

     

    I was a great admirer of WGS- still am. He was initially sniffed at and picked upon by more than a few, however hindsight is wonderful thing – so was Gordon in his tenure – no airs, & graces, just value for money with a big dollop of success on top. HH

  6. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    I loved Gordon Strachan’s outcomes.

     

     

    But I have to be honest. A slice of that love was after the fact.

     

     

    While the outcomes were being delivered, I sometimes only, found Gordon’s team quite a tough watch.

  7. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    As for the wider headline Paul – I suspect you are more of an evangelist of metrics and kpis than I am.

     

     

    Clearly they are necessary. Check.

     

     

    Clearly managers need to sign up to the framework. Check.

     

     

    For me though they take you from x% to, say, 90% of the overall equation.

     

     

    IMHO, there MUST be room for up to 10% on top of this … (the accommodation of which is clearly dependent on a manager’s ability) …

     

     

    …. for a manager’s “gut”, “instincts”, “experience”, or his interpretation of a player’s character.

  8. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    As for the comparator clubs occasionally pitched on here?

     

     

    No offence intended to the scientists …

     

     

    I wish Brighton, Brentford, Union SG, Brest and the others good luck.

     

     

    But they ain’t Celtic.

     

     

    And we ain’t Newcastle United.

     

     

    We win stuff.

     

     

    Our challenge is a different one.

  9. One of my unfashionably favourite wee Gordon signings was Paul Telfer; a couple of stuttering performances I liked him as a sleeves rolled up FB who was positionally pretty reliable. As an average size bloke who’s played sweeper and RB myself, I liked his no-frills approach to his tasks.

     

     

    There; that’s my eye-for-a-player credibility shot to pieces!

  10. Bit of a bizarre lead I must say.

     

     

    Can’t make head nor tail – did Ange get us to the last sixteen in Europe two years running?

     

     

    Seem to remember going from the UCL to the Europa to the Conference and getting panned out by Norwegian minnows!?

     

     

    Still, nice to see Martin being acknowledged Club legend status.

     

     

    Is that a first in a CQN lead.!?

     

     

    Hail Hail

  11. Bloom would not have been welcome at Celtic when Strachan was manager. Gordon was of his own man. I remember being at the club Christmas Cocktail party and Strachan stormed out after a guest criticism of his team. None of the Directors nor his wife could persuade him to return.

     

     

    I don’t think our current manager would accept Bloom either, he might accept his stats but Rodgers is his own man and wants his own way.

  12. Enjoyed the article Paul. After a morning sailing and swimming off the west coast of Corfu. The joys of international breaks.

     

     

    MON will be a legend because he overcame a financially doped Advocaat team at ibrox instantly with inferior spend to our rivals but with a spend vastly greater than we could afford at the time.

     

     

    Hence your point about factors outside of managers control being important considerations, in making comparison, makes sense.

     

     

    MON also had HL for 4 years and sadly it showed when he didn’t and when he and the big earners didn’t fancy the job when we had to right size. Huge respect and credit for what he did for us. ESP the run to Seville and the year after.

     

     

    WGS should be but never will be seen by many Celtic fans as a legend. His results certainly warrant it. 2 last 16s and beating Man U / Milan / Benfica / Spartak and more in the big cup. Incredible given the necessary downsizing. As many have said the football was never the most inspiring but how many amazing nights did he give us. The above 4 plus Tommy Burns Thursday at Tannidice / massively over spending Rangers twice at CP in the run in that season spring to mind.

     

     

    His trophy haul was even better than MON in both leagues and overall percentage terms. Maybe the fans lack of interest or appreciation of the financial situation back then. Maybe all of our ignorance of the overheating at ibrox ? Either way given the obstacles he will always be a legend to me. He never once moaned about the task.

     

     

    As for Bloom v DD I have no idea if that is even mentioned by Paul. We are different clubs at different stages and in different leagues. The challenge for Celtic is to have someone properly running a football department in a modern and accountable way and a management structure reflecting that but still leveraging our significant financial strength. It has to be the next step post the BR era. As and when.

     

     

    Back for another swim in the Ionian Sea and then home for the top of the table clash.

  13. Atalanta

     

     

    Huge credit to the Italians charging us just £25 a ticket for next weeks game.

     

     

    They could have charged 3 x that easily.

  14. GLENDALY @ 12.22

     

     

    GLEN, re. Naeclass/Naybalance I totally agree. A nasty, bigotted wee scroat of a man, very poor coach with a very partial way of playing at two different grounds in Glasgow.

     

     

    How he was ever appointed manager is baffling, how he remained in situ after umpteen performances like those he served up (as player and manager) against each Glasgow team reflects very poorly on the Hearts hierarchy.

     

     

    We never forget that he walked away asap from original Rangers just to cash in on his new ‘free’ status. No doubt the fuds in the Govan Stadium now see him as some kind of wee hero.

     

     

    Our dream would be him getting the job when Baldemort is a goner.

     

     

    Ave Ave

  15. CHAIRBHOY on 16TH OCTOBER 2024 12:59 PM

     

     

    “Is that a first in a CQN lead.!?”

     

     

    Are you kidding? Thats really poor. From when it first started CQN has talked about what an inportant place Martin O’Neil has in Celtics history.

     

     

    This was 4 years ago:

     

     

    “If there is a hierarchy of Celtic royalty – those most of us would feel nervous in front of, Martin O’Neill is sitting on the throne. For those of us who are old enough, his impact on our lives is significant.”

  16. CHAIRBHOY

     

     

    MON was, is, a hero to anyone with a passing interest in Celtic

     

     

    It’s pretty disrespectful what your suggesting, especially if it’s just take score some points in your vendetta

  17. .BURNLEY78 on 16TH OCTOBER 2024 1:31 PM

     

    ———-/

     

    Great post – enjoyed it and agree with all.HH

  18. Regards data and analytics and making good choices, Tony Bloom and John Benham at Brebtfird who worked for Bloom both understand what’s needed for success at a football club. Their track records both prove that. And the most important position to get right is the head coach.

     

     

    Success is relative of course, and Hearts will have a more limited choice than other clubs Bloom has worked with, but using analytics will get you nearer to the best decision than not using them. The final decision always needs to come from the person who’s neck is on the line though,

     

     

    I’d expect his lack of success, when it comes, will be seen as proof that the boffins don’t know everything about the game, but while we argue about the use of technology the smart clubs are getting on with gaining whatever advantage they can

  19. For me, MoN was about more than just trophies. I grew up at a time when we played second fiddle to Rangers. Even the trophies we won felt short-lived. They truly were the “yardstick”.

     

     

    From the moment he came in, the mindset changed. We became the biggest and best. We lose games and even lose leagues but I look at us as favourites every pre-season. We truly are the yardstick now and that is in large part MoN’s legacy.

  20. so who does brendan reoprt to ?

     

     

    who actualy is the boss ?

     

     

    who decides who we sign ?

     

     

    is it a committe approach with the upper structure having a vote each ?

     

     

     

    what if the new man says, you know what, kennedy and strachan and all the academy coaches are actually best in class ?

     

     

    in all my previous industry roles, the biggest thing i can say about an operational director is it give the specialisms the ability to say “well i told you so”.

     

     

    if he was involved already, does he get credit for engels and upping the fee/wage structure ?

     

     

    or does he get the blame for engels last twon performances not matching the celtic torn-faces as looking worth an 11mill investment.

     

     

    i watched scotland again this morning, love it or loathe it, that is the way we should set up and defend in european ties against the bigger teams.

     

     

    i do wish celtic plc would be open to publishing the organisation charts, if you dont want to name the people fine, but at least show the job structures.

     

     

    1,000 people employed by celtic plc now.

     

     

    over 400 in organisational, full time, job roles.

     

     

    anyways i dont trust guys who wear pork pie hats in a jauny manner.

  21. as a ps.

     

     

    did anyone see the job role advertised anywhere ?

     

     

    i know several people i would have recommended.

  22. You can think or say all you want about Steven Naismith as a footballer or coach/ manager, but he is a thoroughly decent individual. Check out the work he has done for years with the Loaves and Fishes charity before passing judgement

  23. Brendan appoints his own man as Director of Football, great news and the way it should have been….

  24. Burnley78 1.31

     

     

    “MON will be a legend because he overcame a financially doped Advocaat team at ibrox instantly with inferior spend to our rivals but with a spend vastly greater than we could afford at the time.”

     

     

    MON did overcome a financially doped 11 on the park,correct.

     

    It could have been made a lot easier if the club hierarchy had complained to our governing bodies over implementation of rules esp when der cheat published their use of ebts not a mumble and not 1 post liquidation to the likes of LNS/court rulings consultancy sham(starting with answer-no title stripping and working back).we knew then,their accounts were the flag for questions to be asked.

     

     

    My second reason is when Sir Hunner of Pences final share issue failed 2004,the underwriters stepped in(minty saying he had to step in) was the source of much laughter in the city,they knew then the quagmire minty was wading in and what it would lead to in 2012 or so…..and it did.

     

    It’s hard to believe with Celtics city contacts they did not hear the laughter

     

     

    Much water under the bridge,I am content on how it,turned out,you see a keech on the road you don’t stand on it,

     

     

     

    Happy sailing

     

     

    HH

  25. St Stivs

     

     

    Desmond is the Boss. He makes all the big decisions, Manager, Chairman, Chief Executive. He calls all the shots. Of Course he does delegate and he does take advice from both inside the club and outside. He is a big hitter and can get you into any room in sport.

     

     

    Brendan was appointed by the Board and I suppose he is answerable to the Board, however, in practical terms the Board are bypassed and Brendan has a direct line to Desmond. I understand he talks with Desmond most days.

     

     

    Todays announcement makes it clear that the new guy answers to the Board. I suspect practically he will answer to Brendan within the structure

     

     

    Time will tell

  26. glendalystonsils on @12:22pm

     

    Unlike MO’N /Strachan , no appointment Hearts could make to replace Naismith would be a retrograde step . A thoroughly rotten manager and a thoroughly rotten individual .

     

    ………………

     

     

    And yet when Naismith came to Parkhead last season and [ parked the bus ] and won the game 0-2, super BR had no answers.

     

     

    Naismith made the league look competitive for at least 2 weeks and even made the best fans in the world boo their team off of the pitch at half time and also at full time.

     

     

    If SPFL teams don’t [ park the bus ] against Celtic then there is no opposition.

     

     

    If Celtic play in the Champions League and don’t [ park the bus ] and play on the break utilising the unmatchable pace of Kyogo and Maeda then Celtic present no opposition unless its Bratislava level teams.

     

     

    PS, If Celtic [ park the bus ] and play on the break then Kyogo and Maeda immediately become £40 million + type of players. Why can’t we practice this domestically?

     

     

    Is it because the manager hasn’t got the know how?

     

     

    And if that is the case, what will players learn from a manager with limited know how?

     

     

    Carlton Cole said he thought of Celtic as this big mysterious legendary club and yet when he got here what he found was a “Mickey Mouse” type of football club.

     

     

    Its on Celtic News Now last week go and look for it.

  27. CELTIC40ME @ 1:40 PM,

     

     

    You can begin by getting off your high horse…

     

     

    I welcomed what Paul67 said of Martin O’Neil ’cause there wasn’t a “BUT”

     

     

    This was from the piece you quoted….

     

     

    “His tactics were beautifully simple: be hard in the middle of the park, get the ball down the wing, have players there who can cross the ball, and have the best headers of the ball in the business there to attack those crosses.

     

     

    It worked and then it stopped working.  Alex McLeish won a treble with lesser players, because he figured out that playing three up against our back three was practically kryptonite to Celtic.  Tactically, Martin had been rumbled, but his magical quality was never tactics….

     

     

    ….You and I know Martin’s tactical weaknesses at Celtic, so does he. He knows more about the management game than any of us, so he evolved; eventually, but this was not his natural territory. He was always playing catch up. The game has moved on and Martin’s principle strength, that significant force of personality, was never going to be enough.

     

     

    https://www.celticquicknews.co.uk/martin-oneill-what-went-right/

     

     

    So if you take a partial quote from an article it’s worth putting in the link so people don’t have to take the skewed viewpoint…

     

     

    Aff oot

     

     

    Hail Hail

  28. glendalystonsils on

    BOB LOBLAW

     

     

    The same Naismith who hacked down Jonny Hayes and leaned over screaming in his face while jonny lay in obvious pain? I don’t recall ever seeing another opponent of ours behave like that .

     

    A supporter of charity he may be , but to me that suggests double standards at the very least .

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