When one club needs to buy and the other doesn’t need to sell, “market value” becomes meaningless. The only price that matters is what the needy party will pay.
Here’s why Paderborn can demand well above valuation for their player, why Celtic will probably pay it, and why the “overpaying” argument misses the point entirely.
The Asymmetry
Paderborn can afford to do no deal. Celtic, less so.
Paderborn keep their player, continue their season, maybe sell in January or let him leave next summer. They have time, alternatives, and no urgent crisis.
Celtic have a Champions League qualifier. Preparation starts now. The manager needs bodies in training. The squad needs bedding in. Every day without the player is a day less of preparation for the most financially important two games of the season.
The BATNA Gap
In negotiation theory, BATNA means “Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement.” It’s your walk-away point.
Paderborn’s BATNA: Keep a decent player, try again next window.
Celtic’s BATNA: Go into Champions League qualifiers with a depleted squad, risk £40 million in revenue, and potentially watch the season unravel before August ends.
When one party’s BATNA is “carry on as normal” and the other’s is “catastrophic financial and sporting risk,” the price isn’t determined by fair value. It’s determined by what the desperate party will pay to avoid disaster.
The Time Premium
The premium isn’t for the player. It’s for timing.
Paderborn aren’t charging above market because their player became significantly better overnight. They’re charging it because they know Celtic are against a clock that doesn’t apply to them.
This is why clubs with Champions League qualifiers pay premiums. It’s not stupidity. It’s the cost of having your season’s economics determined by what happens across two legs in August.
The Walk-Away Fantasy
You might think “Celtic should walk away, find someone else.” As if there’s a queue of equivalent players waiting for the phone to ring. As if scoping, approaching, negotiating, and completing another deal happens in days, not weeks.
There may not be another player. Or if there is, their club sees the same Champions League clock ticking and applies the same premium.
The Real Calculation
Celtic aren’t comparing the asking price to the valuation. They’re comparing it to the opportunity cost of not having the player: disrupted preparation, weaker squad, higher chance of £40 million slipping away.
When you frame it that way, the premium becomes the rational choice. Not because it’s fair. Because it’s the price of avoiding a much bigger problem.
What This Means for the Rest of the Window
Every club in Europe knows Celtic’s situation now. The Champions League qualifier is public knowledge. The squad needs are documented. The clock is visible to everyone.
This is the market when you’re a buying club with hard deadlines and selling clubs with none. The price isn’t what someone is worth. It’s what you’ll pay when you have no choice.
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It’s what you call bad planning
So this lad – maybe a Bundes 2 version of Odin Holm – is the key to our Champs League progression ?
Bitch, please ! (as the kids say); this aint a Deutschland Dilemma.
It’s a systemic #failtoplan phenomenon that sees us held to pay over the odds for the Idahs, Tounektis of the game, season after season.
Aside; I only lasted 60 of todays O60 league tie; my achilles is my current achilles heel.
Fee agreed for Hogh
An Tearmann on 25th July 2026 12:19 pm
One night in Lisbon
Off to see Celtic.
Still awaiting your reply as to when you walked away from Celtic? Ie how long since you gave up your season ticket?
What gives you the right to question anyones credentials on here?
Hogh for £11 million
Dearie Me Paul, you really are trying hard but no cigar, now had you blamed Brendan then you would have hit the nail on the head.
https://x.com/jgceltic/status/2080781384616956338?s=20
Arigato Daizen – somewhere only we know
Who’s got a tear not me lol
We need a renewal of the squad, a fresh impetus of new quality players to go again, its the end of the Ange/Brendan success that is upon us now
Won the SPFL title in the last 5 mins
Outside CQN the fanbase know the size of the job required for the football dept to progress
Inside Celtic Park a billionaire is imposing his strict financial control of the club, something has to give soon
I don’t want to be going to a Celtic Park this season with the quality not on the park due to a Billionaires ego
When an irresistible force such as you
Meets an old immovable object like me
You can bet just as sure as you live
Somethin’s gotta give, somethin’s gotta give, somethin’s gotta give
LIONROARS67 on 25TH JULY 2026 1:04 PM
UPDATE: Celtic have agreed a club record fee of £11m, plus add-ons, for Bodo/Glimt striker Kasper Hogh.
The 25yo is keen to join the Scottish champions and is pencilled in for a medical in the coming days.
https://x.com/AnthonyRJoseph/status/2080978517659914542?s=20
The other side of the Baur coin is in the longer term benefit of paying Paderborn what they want .
Even leaving aside the financial benefits of CL qualification , his profile suggests that we may be able to sell him on after a few seasons for a sum substantially greater than the £5m we pay for him . Isn’t that what our development strategy is meant to be all about?
This is the type of player we should be softening our ‘hard bargaining’ for . Compared to a Tounetki or Balakwisha who we’ll be lucky to get our money back on .
onenightinlisbon on 25th July 2026 12:36 pm
An Tearmann on 25th July 2026 12:19 pm
Stop being a dick
You suggest that by attending a Celtic game i am “part of a problem” on a Celtic site and I am a dick.You get a hold of yourself you girning cunt.
Now I ask again when did you walk away.When did you give up your ticket?
Hopefully this Hogh news can persuade MON to come back 😂😂
There’s much in there I don’t agree with, Paul, number one would be don’t enter a negotiation with no leverage.
I wrote yesterday a put-all- your-eggs-in-one-basket ain’t going to work.
These articles could be much shorter.
Celtic don’t have a football department including scouting and recruitment.
Celtic don’t have proper negotiators.
Celtic have not had any proper planning for years.
The Celtic board don’t listen to any one.
There, and repeat.
Kyogo’s replacement will have been worth the wait -)))
Hogh aye the noo..
One old Kasper out and a new young Kasper in.
If he stays prolific at the ECL level, we have to give credit to our negotiators and closers.
RevolvingDoors CSC
LIONROARS67 on 25TH JULY 2026 1:03 PM
Yesterdays presser cancelled
I think is fair and reasonable to speculate that MO’N wanted action on incoming transfer activity
The after match presser today will give him much to talk about in terms of quality to the club
Now that the financial mountain has been moved lets hope that before Monday 4th of August it doesn’t stop and more additions arrive
The Daizen money seems to have solved our cash flow problem .
Anthony Joseph@AnthonyRJoseph
UPDATE: Bodo/Glimt striker Kasper Hogh is due to arrive in the UK tonight ahead of a medical with Celtic.
It’s understood the Denmark international has agreed terms on a four-year contract, with Celtic having the option to extend by a further year.
(w/@LucaBendoni)
Good signing lots still to do
Michael’s next job is to net the rebound after hitting the crossBaur
GLENDALYSTONSILS on 25TH JULY 2026 1:23 PM
Michael’s next job is to net the rebound after hitting the crossBaur
——————
Michael’s next job will be as a lawyer
We’ll get Baur. Hogh was holing up the deal/ I hope! por cierto
Marsille now sniffing about the Egytpian winger, :( por cierto
Forecast indicates a reasonable day in Glasgow today so it will be interesting to see if the prediction of a 20,000 crowd today will be accurate.
PS The prediction was made on here a few days ago.
Maeda leaving, might have been welcomed after the start to the season he had, but, when it mattered, bhoy did he deliver, por cierto.
If we sign Kasper
Does that mean TET is gona be a priest??
pure random fact from our history just to ponder on.
jimmy mcgrory last goal for celtic in 1937 was scored against queens park past a young goalkeeper ….
desmond white.
Whoa, get a load of this:
https://x.com/celticfc/status/2080997808916639768?s=46&t=sv-Pdy_Omy4gHWjIzzeiwA
McGregor’s in the team.
I thought he walked out yesterday along with MON 😂😂
Ham hoping Hogh will be our next souperstar. 🍀
Not sure who mentioned it but how can Celtic avoid the non leverage trap?
The prospecting team do their job to find candidates during the season.
The football team give approval and rank.
Its all set to go – until the transfer window opens.
How do Celtic avoid the CL trap?
By not being in a position to be eligible to qualify for CL? Unthinkable.
The player market is then open with clubs that do not need to sell and clubs that want to sell.
The better players are in the first group so do Celtic stay away from that group because of leverage factor and sign players clubs might be happy to unload?
Its ok saying its lazy planning withoit looking for a better alternative that does not risk the quality of player purchased.
That’s my thinking on the matter.
The real world marches to the beat of its own drum.
Could things be looking up?
All very true. Value is more complicated than just market rates for transfer fees and wages.
No set formula for any transfer, but as much as possible the club will have their valuation for every player based on many things. Dont just pay what the selling club want, though, or the value thats so important decreases. Negociations are critical for a business with longer term ambitions than just winning this seasons league.
Its maybe a little more complicated for Paderborn – according to reports the player and his agent want to come to Celtic, terms have been agreed. Celtic are still a big pull for a player and an agent with a plan. They will be mindful of standing in the way of the development of an ambitious player. We already pay a premium for development players that others wont.
But our need for a quick sale trumps all that.
It looks like we’re prepared to pay over market value to Bodo for Høgh, who have a qualifier even sooner than ours. We’ve long heard about ow well run they are – I wonder how their fans feel about selling their main striker a week and a half before a game agaisnt USG with no replacement in the door.
10 champions league goals from last season added to our strikeforce over three weeks before the qualifiers suggests we’re doing something right this Summer. Certainly looks like ambition to me
AULDHEID on 25TH JULY 2026 1:51 PM
Not sure who mentioned it but how can Celtic avoid the non leverage trap?
A fully functional development model would go a long way.
A bit of better understanding from some of the more impatient fans about the importance of longer term planning would also help. Dont expect immediate returns from every signing, sign players a season or a half a season before you expect to see them become really important parts of a CL team.
Commit fully
https://x.com/MichaelcShearer/status/2080951395931271404?s=20
Auston Trusty has been enjoying his post-World Cup break back home in Pennsylvania, including throwing out the first pitch at a Phillies game last night.
With Liam Scales suspended for the first two games, Celtic desperately need him back training at Lennoxtown ahead of the league opener vs. Dundee in nine days.
Aipple
They’re making a meal of it 🤣
Our leverage is exactly what has attracted Baur and Kuhn before him to Celtic.
BABASONICOS71@1.50
I don’t see why not … he’s a broth of a bhoy !
If we sign Hogh, he will be our main striker
I think Duran will be Daizens replacement on the left….