If anyone tells you we are about to bid €7m on a guy who scored fewer league goals than Billy McKay last season, and who was signed for €500k last summer, don’t listen to them. Nonsense like this is 180 degrees away from strategy. Where would such a player’s sell-on value increase to? It’s just not going to happen, nor should it, it would be a vanity purchase, the likes of which old Zsa Zsa himself would consider.
The last season we have figures for (season 2011-12), when we had Europa League football, Celtic lost £7m. Since then three significant things have changed:
We’ve sold Wanyama and Hooper for over £17m (before deductions).
We got back into the Champions League and earned an additional £20m.
Season book sales dropped and this season cost £100 less than before.
Cutting £100 off the ticket price will bring in £4m less than last season. All other things being equal (which they will not be), this would give us an £11m deficit before Champions League income and any trading surplus. In short, to retain equilibrium, we need to reach the Champions League group stage more often than not. Money from Uefa is not so much a bonus, it is necessary to push us into the black.
I know we covered this last week, but £17m for Victor and Gary will not, on its own, equate to £17m for new players. Gary and Victor were both on their first Celtic contracts when they left, neither of which was near the top earning position (although both were offered top earning contracts).
We’re not going to spend £17m on transfers and be able to pay the new players from the money saved by not paying Victor and Gary. Instead, the boost to the football budget from these sales will almost certainly disproportionately increase wages, leaving a lesser amount for transfers (if we sign four players for £2.5m each, we’ll probably have to pay each more than the average of Victor and Gary’s wage).
Knowing where they came from, I reckon Victor and Gary cost approximately a combined total of £1m p.a. in wages, the bulk of which would have gone to Gary. If we bring in four players, each costing multiple millions, they could easily cost us an extra £2m per annum in wages, or £8m over their four year contracts.
In short, there is enough money available to buy several good players, for decent money, on high wages (for Celtic). This is a good, sustainable, place to be, but it is not transfer window nirvana. We have moved from a position of carrying a perpetual loss to being able to afford an increase in football budget without splurging into debt to fund it.
This isn’t a detailed budget analysis, there are lots of other variables (McCourt, Rogne etc off the wages, not Murphy, whose wages were off the books already), non-football budget cost inflation, considerable drop in one-off ticket sales (20k seats for £42 each at Rangers games twice a season) and commercial income from 2011-12, variations in season book sales (I hear they are marginally up on same time last year but still down on 2011-12).
The big challenge for the club is to ensure the playing squad is good enough to qualify for the Champions League group stage, and to compete when there, more often than not, without indulging in casino football every year.
We stick to plan, scout and recruit players within budget and with high potential sell-on values. €7m on a striker from Heerenveen? Better stick it on black.
The Kano Foundation have around 40 bucketeers for their annual drive at Celtic Park on Sunday. They could do with a few more. If you can do your bit, get in touch: contactus@thekanofoundation.com.
Check out the 1254125 Great Scottish Run page. I plan to keep this page updated with progress on the event and other resources. When you sign up, let me know and I’ll promote your donations page.
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Samaras in goal? Ffs
Tomorrow Night:
Forster
Lustig Izzy
Mulgrew Wilson
Forrest Brown Efe Commons Sammi
Watt.
………
Sammi, Must NOT play Up Front Alone.
He Is a wonderful Left Winger.. Against Continental Fare,
But as a Single Up Front Attacker.. He is Footless and Ineffectual.
Ah wid Nevah Play Stokes against Continental Opposition
Tony Watt, Can Play Against Continental Opposition…
Tony is oor Best Bet for the role of the Lonely Linwood Striker.
Don’t expect Neil ,wid agree.. With Ma Line-up..
But..
If Ah wur King…
Kojo
Still, Laughin’
scottishleaf
Yes, but I think we had lots of defensive midfielders in the team that night – Ledley and Brown and Kayal (first half), with Mulgrew in defence. I think the key to our success last season was having defensive midfielders who gave the defence good protection, and Victor was the best of them. We’ll see.
Just read that excellent summary of tomorrows match by tictactic. To summarise:
Elfsborg have won one of their last six domestic games
They are fifth in the league;
They like a tackle;
They have 2 guys named Larsson in their team;
And ole Bang Bang plays up front…
Whit are you worried about?
What worries me is they like to launch long balls… we can’t cope with simple balls over the top.
Who was it that interviewed Charles Green on this occasion?
http://t.co/KQXnN9NGSp
Steinreignedsupreme 14:11
My point was that a player’s value has got nothing to do with his previous transfer fee.
Look at Andy Carroll – West Ham picked him up for £15m. Is he that much worse than two years ago? I’d actaually say he’s improved. But the £35m Liverpool paid was WAY over the odds.
79caps 14:05 on 30 July, 2013
“Hope you’re right. Thanks for boosting my confidence. But …. Celtic 2 Helsingborgs 0 (goalscorers: Hooper, Wanyama).”
I see your Celtic 2 Helsingborgs 0 (goalscorers: Hooper, Wanyama) and raise it to … Helsingborgs 0 Celtic 2 (goalscorers: Commons, Samaras) – first-leg…
Mark Wilson Came To Us From Dundee Utd….
As A Superbly Fit Athlete….
With No Significant History Of Injury…
And Had The Makings Of Another Roy Keane
He Had A Metatarsal Broken In A Shameful Off-The-Ball Incident…..
In Virtually His First Competitive Match For Us,Against Man Utd…..
He Most Likely Compounded His Injury..
By Trying To Play On For Some Time…
His Later Injuries Were Down To Bad Luck
Or The Resulted Directly From Assaults By Huns..
Derk Boerrigter will be added to Celtic’s squad for the first leg of their Champions League third qualifying round tie against Swedish side Elfsborg at Parkhead tomorrow night if his move to the Scottish champions is confirmed today.
Derk Boerrigter
Neil Lennon is hoping the 26-year-old Ajax forward will complete his medical this afternoon but fellow Dutchman Virgil van Dijk is still out with a foot injury.
Defenders Adam Matthews and Charlie Mulgrew and midfielder Joe Ledley have recovered from their respective injuries and are in contention.
Provisional squad: Forster, Matthews, Lustig, Mouyokolo, Wilson, Ambrose, Mulgrew, Izaguirre, Rogic, Brown, Ledley, Kayal, Forrest, Balde, Commons, Samaras, Stokes, McGeouch, Zaluska, Watt, Irvine.
79caps
I suspect Efe may take Victors place in midfield this year, I could be wrong but I think we will see this more and more especially if Wilson stays.
it’s going to be an interesting couple of months. I think as we are we have enough to get past Elsfbsorg, the worry though is we have a potentially very tricky tie to negotiate in the next round but at least if we lose that we drop into the Europa League.
After all the moaners on here questioning Hooper’s attitude, where’s the concern about Wilson potentially playing in a vital game for us tomorrow night?!
Assuming he really is going back to Nottingham…!
T4
The Singing Detective Demands The Resignation Of Campbell Ogilvie
I liked Mark Wilson but he was no Roy Keane. The Bhoy gave his all in a Celtic jersey though.
LB
Steinreignedsupreme
Fair enough. We’ll certainly need Commons and Samaras to play well.
scottishleaf
Strangely enough, I would feel more confident about the next round if we get past the Elves. By then the team will played more games and some new additions will be available. I think this round is very tricky. Pity we couldn’t have had an easier draw.
Theoriginalsadiesbhoy @ 13.45
Wexford people are known as the Yellow Bellies and don’t let that term fool you.
It came about in the 17th century in Ireland when King William – yes that guy – arranged a hurling match between his fancied caman players from Wexford and a champion team of Cornish hurlers. The Wexfordmen wore yellow waistbands and played brilliantly on the day with spectators shouting c’mon the Yellow Bellies.
Twisty – unlucky in the first, but the Hannon horse won it well. EW?!
T4
Lets just sign Billy McKay. Job Done !
Excited for tomorrow night..
79caps 14:22 on 30 July, 2013
Both usually do perform in European matches – along with Brown, Wilson, Foster, and a couple of others.
We will Not Miss Wanyama.
Efe ,is a Natural Middy..
He should be in oor Mid-Field…Never ,in the C.B. position or the Right Back.
A warning..
If Neil Plays Efe as a C.B… Then Neil,is Jist Looking fur Trouble.
Kojo
Still,Laughin’
Mulgrew & Ledley will start tomorrow night !
Just stick a goalie in and play the rest in alphabetical order. I reckon this team would beat the currants.
……………………………Forster………………………………….
Ambrose………….Balde…………Brown……………..Commons..
…..Forrest…………..Irvine……………….Izaguirre…………..Kayal..
……………………….Ledley………………….Lustig…..
Where is Challs these days?
SSN must have lost his phone number.
79caps
As always with these draws we always seem to get the highest or 2nd highest ranked non-seeded team so I fully expect to get Dinamo Zagreb or Partizan Belgrade in the next round – should we all get through!
No chance we will get the easy tie from the winner of the Shakter Karangdur v Skenderue tie! (Shakter currently 1-0 up at home in 1st leg)
Oldco always seemed to get the easiest draws possible (maybe my tim paranoia!!) not that it always helped of course!!
But I agree the next round would see us far better prepared as we would be further advanced with new additions but I still think we have more than enough quality to get past this tie.
Kojo
Can’t agree with that at all. Efe does not have the composure or speed of thought to play in centre mid. I get what you mean (that if, and he will, loses the ball there is less chance of a goal being conceded as a result) but I don’t think he’s the answer.
Emdy else reading Paul’s leader as dismissing the sum offered rather than the player?
TTTT
Nope! Nose! No good! No happy! No playin !
TBB
I’d be surprised if a club like Herenveen could demand 7m euros for a player. 3-4m with add-ons maybe.
Homesick is the new Sick of Home.
scottishleaf
Yes, but the Kazakh team (Karangdur) knocked out Bate Borisov, who last season won a group stage match against Bayern Munich!
TBB
That is one possible interpretation. Where did the figure of 7m come from anyway?
Never alone. Agreed ‘re Brown. Thought he was a pig in a poke at first. But now he’s
Our main man when it matters in any big game.
Paul67 et al
All this transfer talk reminds me of one of my favourite movies;
‘The Friends of Kevin Doyle’
Bob Mitchum was in it, as was er Peter Boyle
79caps
Aye but we won’t get them in the draw! as they are the lowest ranked team in the opposite side. Honestly if we get through it will be Zagreb or Belgrade :-)
But honestly we should not fear any of the potential opponents.
Aidy the Tim – Where exactly are you in “rural” Spain?
I like Efe.
But even I think Efes beer is rotten.
Oops, I think it should be Shakhter Karagandy. I wonder how many Celtic supporters would get there if we are drawn against them.
My Dear Kojo….
I Am In Complete Agreement With You..
That Oor MegaWattie Prodigy….
Should Lead The Attack….
We Simply Have No Other Forward….
Who Could Pose A Threat To The Dirty Dealing Elves….
When He Has Been Given The Opportunities…..
To Play Through The Middle…..
Rather Than Shunted Over To The Left Wing….
So That We Can Accommodate Lennon’s Golden Favourites…..
HE HAS NEVER LET US DOWN…..
Even From His First Game As A Triallist..
Playing The Linwood Striker Against Liverpool In The 4-4 Game…..
Then His Stunning Brace Against Motherwell….When The Team Was Struggling…..
Which Made The Clique …
Eat Craw Pie….
And His Outstanding Performances For The Development Team….
In The Tourney Against The Euro Giants..
Especially His Stunning 20 yard Strike Against The Barce In The Home Tie….
And,Of Course,His Cool-Haund Luke Goal Agin’ The Big Barce Team….
And The General Level Of His Performance Against Mascherano….
Who Should Have Conceded A Penalty And Been Sent Off….
After An Earlier Foul On OOR BHOY….
However, This Wull Cut NO ICE….
Wi’ Our Ginger Tinkerman….
Because Tony….Can NEVER Become One Of The Feted ‘Golden Bhoys’……
As His Birth Certificate Reveals That He Was Not Born …
On The Sainted Emerald Isle….
Pinkety..?