Transfers: supply and demand

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I know we’ve touched on this before, but I continue to see, “Why do Celtic always leave it until the last minute?’ question asked about the transfer window.  This is not a difficult question, in fact, it is the easiest question you will ever get about how football works.

Why do Brighton always leave it to the last minute?  Why do Manchester City always leave it to the last minute? [Brighton, Man City and Celtic have, of course, already signed players].  Brighton are apparently very keen to sign Matt O’Riley, but here we are, on the 22 August, their season is already underway and Matt is knocking about Lennoxtown this morning.

We all know why this is.  Matt is under contract and Celtic want to keep him, so will leave it until they are sure it is right to sell, that they have extracted the highest possible bid, and that they have backfill.  How is it possible to know how sellers act when you are connected to the seller, but not when you are connected to a buyer?

Transfer windows skew activity towards the end of the period.  Exceptions to this rule exist, but they always come with a story.  Celtic, Brighton or Manchester City are not responsible for how humans react to supply and demand.  Complaining about it is like shouting at the wind.

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270 Comments

  1. Brendan blackened his own name.

     

     

    A desperation to get to Leicester, instead of waiting till the summer and closing out the treble.

     

     

    Our desire was to win 10 in a row, there is an argument, that although NFL came in won trophies and got us to nine, that Brendan was the first Domino piece to topple.

     

     

    All ifs buts and maybes, but I always felt we would have got to ten if he had stayed,

     

     

    i dont believe either than now he is back there are board members out to get him, or indeed that he is not being supported with player spends.

     

     

    It is a lot of nonsense.

     

     

    and a wee ps ………… trimming the squad for quality, hmmmm, at one point last year we had 6 first teamers out.

  2. The elephant in the room hasn’t left. The biggest outgoing signing we are looking at is the entire club being sold. A pittance spent on “big” infrastructure improvements. Even after which, what at least £100M in the bank after player trading this window? If we were to fork out £10M each on 3-4 players? Let’s say 5X on Desmonds investment. He’s a business man, not a Celtic fan 🤷🏼‍♂️

  3. CELTIC40ME @ 6:49 PM,

     

     

    I’ve been posting on here for close to Twenty years, feel free to drag up anything I’ve posted.

     

     

    But agreed in principle, there is no need to “name, names” just taunted to do so, in that regard I’ll apologise

     

     

    Hail Hail

  4. Swiss Tony on 22nd August 2024 6:59 pm

     

     

    i dont believe that at all.

     

     

    why would the triple billionaire be bothered about £50m return for his investment in Celtic plc,

     

     

    Do you not believe he wants to hand his shareholding down to his son ? like John Keane did for his ?

  5. SAINT STIVS @ 6:57 PM,

     

     

    Total nonsense and what’s more it’s been proven to be total nonsense

     

     

    The Board were negotiating a compensation package with Leicester City, probably for months, that agreement had to be in place before Leicester could speak to our manager and staff…

     

     

    The midnight flit was a rouse to allow BR&Co to take all the flack while the Board pocketed the money and replaced the whole shebang with Lenny

     

     

    With the resultant disaster

     

     

    Every major manager in Europe was targeted by China at that time, BR was no exception he kept DD on the loop the whole time…

     

     

    It was something and nothing…

     

     

    The folk who deal with these “dark arts” are still at our Club remember.

     

     

    Hail Hail

  6. Would love Hearts to make it to Europa League. Another unforeseen impact on the P&L for our financially challenged domestic rivals.

     

     

    Also really hoping the govan franchise have their europa games at hampden and not ibrox. Although it would be good for our coefficient if the do perform their coefficient money routine I still struggle to want them to win any games. Half empty hampden would be sweet.

  7. DD IS LISTED AS iRELANDS 10TH RICHEST PERSON WITH A FORTUNE OF 2.2 BILLION EUROS.

     

     

    that is 2,200 millions of the currency.

     

     

    a 5x return on his investment in celtic would make him richer by 4.5%.

     

     

    then asgain Low saiys, lots of things are not for sale, until they are.

     

     

    personally i just dont believe it, the relaticely new family dynasys will be there for a longtime yet.

  8. Chairbhoy on 22nd August 2024 7:08 pm

     

     

    show me factual recorded proof that celtic were in discussion for his exit for months before he “flitted”

  9. CHAIRBHOY on 22ND AUGUST 2024 7:00 PM

     

     

    “I’ve been posting on here for close to Twenty years, feel free to drag up anything I’ve posted.”

     

     

    I don’t want to. Certainly not twice,

     

     

    You seem totally unable to live with a situation where Brendan isn’t 100% perfect. Why won’t you accept that if he does get what he wants then he should be at least be held accountable?

     

     

    That’ doesn’t strike me as attacking him, maybe you can explain how it is

  10. St S. with an annual turnover of £100M plus, what would you currently value Celtic at? Of course, what’s willing to be paid, but that aside. What would your market valuation look like? Mine would be 5X plus £100M.

  11. swiss tony –

     

     

    i dont have time to go find how much his investment was over the 5 share inputs, but it is covered by David Low.

     

     

    What i can say, today share price was £2.05.

     

     

    Desmond has 34% of 123 million shares.

     

     

    at current share price that is worth £85m.

     

     

    off the top of my head but happy to be disproves, he underwrite celtic share issues to around £30m (i might be wrong)

     

     

    ergo, current value would see him net £50m.

     

     

    now is someone wants to do a hostile bid and offer to the whole shareholding, then they could be buying shares now, and make DD, Traynor, Keane and Allison an offer they cant refuse.

  12. !!BADA BING!! on 22ND AUGUST 2024 7:08 PM

     

     

    You’d need to be pretty perverse to celebrate Brendan failing if it meant Celtic did as well.

     

     

    It’s really not all about Brendan and Peter Lawwell for a lot of us.

  13. Market Value of Celtic is 123 million x £2.05

     

     

    so £252m, valuation.

     

     

    even with £100m in the bank WHICH CANNOT BE PAID OUT IN DIVIDENS, it would be a really stupid investment to pay 5x that valuation.

  14. CELTIC40ME @ 7:12 PM,

     

     

    Brendan “Fraudgers”, has been treated despicably by the haters…

     

     

    I’ve made it quite clear I’m going to accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative…

     

     

    When it comes to our manager, if that’s an agenda, so be it, he’s the right man for the job and if his face doesn’t fit for some, we’ll too bad

     

     

    He’s proven himself over and over…

     

     

    Hail Hail

  15. Unfortunately, today’s share price is only an indicator. Times that, I’ll take your £50M, by 5. At least. That’s what he’d get. £250M now, tell me that a billionaire didn’t get where he is by turning down that kind of money. And that’s on the conservative side. 🤷🏼‍♂️

  16. bigrailroadblues on

    Team for Sunday;

     

    Ghost, Canadian Bruiser, CCV, Liam, Greg, Reo, Matt, Captain, Shogun Warrior, Kyogo, Jamesie.

  17. Chairbhoy on 22nd August 2024 7:19 pm

     

     

     

    I know what compensation Celtic plc got to let him go.

     

     

    But you said –

     

     

    The Board were negotiating a compensation package with Leicester City, probably for months,

     

     

    can you show the proof of that ?

     

     

    and you followed by the board pocketed the money, they didnt personally gain anything, it goes into Cletic plc accounts.

     

     

    the midnight flit was engineered by leicester forcing his hand come now or not at all, now that is on record.

  18. Too much heat & very little light on here at the moment re: transfer window “issues”.

     

    What is rquired is …………………. PATIENCE.

     

    Let them get on with it, as I’m sure they will. ;)

     

     

    HH

     

     

    Gerry

  19. CHAIRBHOY on 22ND AUGUST 2024 7:24 PM

     

     

    “I’ve made it quite clear I’m going to accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative…”

     

     

    So no criticism is permitted then? I don’t think that’s quite the boast you think it is or a particularly healthy starting point. We are talking about what’s in the best interests of Celtic here not Brendan Rodgers aren’t we?

     

     

    Can you tell me where the attack is, or where I haven’t suggested what’s perfectly reasonable – that at Celtic the people who make the big decisions need to be held accountable?

     

     

    I think everyone at Celtic needs a fair amount of praise and criticism for the job they do. Don’t you?

  20. Swiss Tony on 22nd August 2024 7:27 pm

     

     

     

    St S, that’s not how takeovers work. They’re based on future earnings.

     

     

    you asked for market vauation, that is exactly how it works.

     

     

    Personally I was invloved in several m&a activities , never seen a 5x on future earnings as being the final price modifier.

     

     

    if you can predict what celtic earnings will be for the next 5 years WITH NO DIVIDENS being paid out that would be fanciable,

  21. KINGLUBO on @11:30am

     

    Pause for thought.

     

     When we signed MOR he was nothing near the finished article, and now BR has done his magic, MOR is a polished diamond, so I’m sure Bernardo or whoever else we sign could follow the same road. Certainly hope so

     

     KINGLuBO

     

    ………………

     

     

    MOR has been kind of “unpolished” since the SCSF vs Aberdeen when Dons manager tactically marked both MOR and REO out of the game, this was copied by Dundee up at Dens Park shortly after the SCSF were we were made to look ordinary and our only 2 shots at goal went into the net for 0-2 win thanks to James Forrest.

     

     

    The Huns then copied these new mitigation tactics in the SCF were we were made to look horrible this time by the horrible Huns, it took a 97th minute super strike from the adorable handsome Irish fella – Adam Idah.

     

     

    In the SCSF and SCF we played 2 wingers who were also blocked by this new mitigation system which is being deployed against us, and they were guff, so were their 2 replacements.

     

     

    Wingers are imho past their sell by date. Look at Meada’s goal on Saturday, a chip over the top and DM is unplayable. Kyogo has been diminished by Brendan’s insistence on wingers who 9/10 don’t get their crosses in on time.

     

     

    Thank God wee Martindale stopped parking his bus and got relegated and took his banana skins away to another league.

     

     

    Solution to fix SPL..

     

     

    All opposition to Celtic MUST park the bus…or there is no opposition.

     

     

    Or.…

     

     

    Split the gate receipts like it was before David Murray and Fergus McCann turned every football fan into pretendy Chartered Accountants.

  22. lots of the forecast for celtic revenues are easy,

     

     

    contracted revenues, european participation at the lowest rung, season books etc etc.

     

     

    what you cant put in the accounts or forecast is every year we will trade players assets by spending 10m and bringing in 30m.

     

     

    that unpredictabilty is why we gave profit updates to the market,

     

     

    you cant prdict the player sale in the future earnings.

  23. SAINT STIVS @ 7:27 PM,

     

     

    Leicester City came in for Brendan Rogers in January 2018, by the end of February 2018 Brendan Rogers and staff had left Celtic for Leicester.

     

     

    In the agreement hammered out between Celtic PLC and Leicester City a document was produced

     

     

    Each member of staff that was leaving Celtic for Leicester was named, the compensation amount for each individual was detailed.

     

     

    You think Brendan got up and left one Monday morning having secretly told a handful of staff he was going and he was going to take them but keep it quiet because he didn’t want the Celtic Executive to know.

     

     

    Then shot down the Motorway:)))

     

     

    You still believe that fairy tale do you!?

     

     

    Well, I certainly do have a bridge to sell you…

     

     

    Hail Hail

  24. St S, that’s exactly how it works. And if you take over the company, the £100M in the bank is yours! Celtic PLC as an investment is as ripe for a Glazers style leveraged buyout as any club in history. Or worse. These are dangerous times for CFC, make no mistake.

  25. boring subject, but just to share an example

     

     

    ——————

     

     

    A good starting point is to establish how much the target and its assets are worth by examining the cash it generates and is likely to churn out in the future—both under the current regime and in the event that it is acquired. This valuation can then be cross-referenced with the target’s market value: the price that investors are presently willing to pay for it.

     

     

    With this information at hand, the prospective acquirer will then want to work out how much it will likely need to offer to get a deal over the line. The goal here is to pay as little as possible while also satisfying the demands of shareholders in the target company and making the acquisition worth their while.

     

     

    The takeout value is used by financial analysts to determine a range of possible price levels for takeover bids and by shareholders to estimate the return they might receive if their shares are acquired. Acquirers typically pay an acquisition premium to close a deal and ward off competition, although, depending on the circumstances, it is also possible in some cases to get a discount, acquiring the target for less than its fair market value (FMV).

  26. Swiss Tony on 22nd August 2024 7:40 pm

     

     

    if you dont mind me asking , what do you actually do / what expertiese do you have in that arena ?

     

     

    a leverage buy out, in my humble opinion, only makes money by assett stripping. sell every asset, sure take the money out over tiime to pay off the loans that you used to buy it out.

     

     

    people buying things in the english pl can make money,

     

     

    i dont believe, and it is just an opinion, that celtic are that much of an investment proposition say compared to anyone in Portugal, or Turkey, or even Switzerland.

     

     

    Unless these takeover chappies have got access to the EPL or an invite to another league set up.

  27. St S. I’ve just been watching from afar. If any of those clubs in those countries have £100M in the bank, a single major shareholder, and nowhere obvious to spend it? I’d say that they’d be in the same boat. But there aren’t any other clubs like that. Are there?

  28. bournesouprecipe on

    !!BADA BING!! on 22ND AUGUST 2024 7:09 PM

     

     

    The Board will be logging all the Transfer Window excuses from here…..

     

     

    ———————————————

     

     

    Any signing updates ?