I want to take a look at what Uefa might do this week that could have an impact on others, as well as our finances. Expect lots of news from Uefa, who have a videoconference on Wednesday and Thursday. We should learn how last season’s Champions and Europa Leagues will conclude, what next season’s qualification competition will look like and the calendar of dates for next season, with guidance on transfer windows.
A relatively minor point with more bearing in Scotland will be discussed on Thursday, how Financial Fair Play (FFP) will be enforced with respect to the crisis. You will remember we discussed Newco’s position with respect to FFP in a lengthy article in February. Without revisiting detail, the scenario required them to sell significantly before the 30 June financial year end to prevent them breaching FFP regulations.
FFP breaches do not instantly or automatically lead to disqualification from Uefa competition, but it would require the club to take “rehabilitative action” or else face consequences, including the ultimate Uefa sanction. Rehabilitative action means cutting costs, significantly so, in the case of Newco.
Current FFP rules allows for exemptions due to exceptional circumstances, which the current crisis certainly is. The process effectively adds-in revenue or subtracts costs you would otherwise see were it not for the exceptional circumstances, so in theory, Newco could claim allowance for a few lost revenue (although unlike Celtic, this will be very limited as they did not offer refunds).
We have to hope that no substantive changes are made to FFP rules.
Scottish football was a different place when we looked at Newco’s finances in February. Celtic’s interim accounts to 31 December showed £32m in the bank, we were on our way to nine-in-a-row and finances were very stable. 10 of the 12 others in the Premiership were living within their means and we had a new TV deal to look forward to. Since then, red ink has bled everywhere.
Our operating expenses for the first 6 months of the financial year were £7.6m per month. The manager, coaches and execs have taken pay cuts, while furloughed staff costs are met by the taxpayer, but I expect the deferrals players took will all have to be paid by the time this financial year closes on 30 June. Cash burn since 1 January will not be as high as £7.6m per month, but it will be close to this until lockdown started on 23 March and no lower than £4m per month since. There has been very little income since the new year (Copenhagen, some Scottish Cup and league receipts, retail), with money going out for refunds.
So what does this mean for our finances? The £32m balance at 1 Jan is likely to get us through to the financial year-end, plus or minus a couple of million either way. By 30 June, season ticket money will be in, but there is no way of knowing how well tickets will sell compared to previous seasons (we’ll not sell more, clearly).
Until lockdown is over, there will be close to nothing from stadium operations (£7.6m last season) and retail (£12.9m last season). The SPFL hopes to have fans attend games by October (the Championship business plan is counting on it), but we are looking at July, August and September with little income from many revenue streams. Next season’s finances are down to season ticket sales, Uefa qualification and a late bump from 10-in-a-row merchandise during what is likely to be a recession.
Champions League qualification brought media rights income to £33.9m in season 2017-18, the following season this dropped to (a still impressive) £15.7m for the Europa League campaign (other Euro revenues, like ticket sales, are not included in these figures).
If we qualify for the Champions League next season, I expect we will break-even. Progress through the Europa group stage and we will make a sizeable loss and a return to debt. Failure to reach the Europa League group stage would see us return a larger loss than at any time in our history by a huge margin.
Having spent this week looking at our finances and those of others in the Premiership, there are lots of unknowns ahead and just one certainty. Uefa are expected to confirm qualification competitions will be a single game each round, drawn randomly, home or away. Celtic should be seeds all the way through, but that advantage is lessened by an expectation of some away legs. Luck of the draw will never be more important.
We are going to win the league; I could not be more sure of this. I have not touched on Newco’s finances here but if you are interested, you can read back what we discussed in February. We might have problems to manage but they are a busted flush. It will all play out in the months ahead.
The season ahead could return the largest loss in the next 50 years of Celtic history. If so, we will need to work our way back, which will not be done overnight. Even the ‘sell to England’ strategy is not likely to be effective, as transfer fees are likely to suffer due to the crisis. Oh, and I think we need players for several positions, at least as cover.
When you look at Partick Thistle and others throughout the world, these are First World Problems. We have 10 to focus on, but just as winning nine-in-a-row did not happen as we wanted, the journey between here and next May is likely to be a rocky road.
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for what its worth, i hope hearts lose and go under.
fight fight fight fight fight fight
i think the HeartsThistle case is about money & nothing else.
They have gone to pains to say, they are not seeking to challenge Celtic or Dundee United as Champions and at the moment are not seeking to delay the start of next season.
If they get a ruling that it was illegal to relegate them, they will be seeking financial recompense.
BBC Scotland and STV ,only use social media video of the huns at George Square, shameful.
David17 – one of 5he outcomes could null and void the league – have you wondered where Thistle’s mystery money to pay fir the legal challenge is coming from – ABC in full swing
Saint Stivs, I’m with you both Hearts and Thistle must realise if they win then football in Scotland will be finished if the figures that they are looking for are correct.
Re the Hearts and PT legal challenge, they must of course realise that regardless of the outcome, it will cost them money either way. Where do they think the £10m will come from? It is a senseless act of self-immolation. The Clubs are the SPFL, and it is difficult to envisage that a sufficient number will vote any other way, than that of self-preservation. So, heads you lose, tails you lose. It is far from perfect, but they had more than one opportunity to come up with a solution that was agreeable to the other Clubs, and signally failed to do so. Not to mention their performances, or lack of them, on the field of play.
There are too many clubs in Scotland, losing Hearts and Partick Thistle would be no great loss. Along with sevco, of course.
catamongthepigeonscsc
Speaking of Sideshow Bob, if these figures are true then it tells you everything that is wrong with football and society in general, immoral doesn’t come close…
https://wageindicator.co.uk/pay/vip-celebrity-salary/David-Luiz
David17 be careful what you wish for. H H Hebcelt
scunnered wi this jambo nonsense,
poor wee them
awrite they managed to avoid liquidation when they had their cheating owner.
like their more indebted cousins they don’t do insight into how they arrived at the brink.
hearts are were they are down to senior- aye you wee Anne making crap decisions.
1.craig Levin..management
2.stadium budget — overshot.rumoured double cost.
1.resulting in relegation 4 victories 1 against new club followed Defeats v relegation contenders
2.wee Anne look in for sold to cover stand budget overshoot
remember not a whine1or a gurn from them had Accies or St mirren been in their spot .
fed up with them
hh
and I had sympathy for Thistle.Thought they gained a lot….well until I heard bout this case
hh
St Stivs 7:52
I remember the Gypsies used to roll into the village late summer in those exact carts.
Mid to late 50s.
We were fascinated and used to watch them from the bing where they camped.
My granny used to warn us off and wouldn’t open the door to the women when they came round selling clothes pegs.
‘GG
They were still making appearances on the ash pitches behind our house
when I was at scool, am 48 now
Please keep safe and well
Good morning CQN from an overcast but dry at the moment Garngad
Feck Hearts and Thistle they had all season to make sure they were safe from relegation.
I don’t see how they can win this and sincerely hope they waste Hundreds of thousands of pounds of their own cash trying to win it. The way I see it is that the clubs are the SPFL and they voted for them to not stay in their respective leagues. So are they taking the rest of the Scottish clubs to court??
You can bet your house on every Hun and their orange walking Granny claiming Null and void must come into force as well ” cause it’s no fair” just as poor Gordon the Hun on radio Snyde last night did.
Regarding the BLack Life’s Matter campaign, I have just seen that a couple of business down south have apologised for their historic involvement in the slave trade and have promised cash donations.
Is it that the politicians who are not backing the call for some statues to come down had ancestors involved in the slave trade, owners of black slaves who built up massive wealth on the back of it and received places in the realm etc. feckin scum
HH
D. :)
If Hearts are to win their case, I think they’ll have to demonstrate that league rules were broken or not adhered to in their relegation.
I don’t believe the rules were broken despite the nonsense we’ve seen levelled at Doncaster and others in the last two months.
Everything the SPFL board did was within the rule book.
I’m looking forward to hearing Tom English after the case is dismissed.
Remember Celtic wanted to challenge decisions through member clubs supporting a challenge
Not ONE club backed us
Hearts find themselves where they are, through horrendous management, no one to blame but them
I personally hope Hearts dissapear, quickly followed by the 8 year old Sevco
Too many teams playing in Scotland, that should reduce it by 2, with a bit of luck
Mr Macron was exempt from the UK’s 14-day quarantine requirements, as a “representative of a foreign country on business”.
Rules ,we don’t need your stinking rules …
Celtic look to be working hard to have some support in the ground from the first home games next season whenever those might be scheduled. Good on them for demonstrating the desire but I don’t agree with whispering in Jackson’s ear.
My personal bet is that the first five hundred in will be the same five hundred who have attended each of the three uber-restricted match allocations at Ibrox. Same old, same old.
I thought if we went to a 14 team league, it would have stopped legal action, the clubs voted to end the league, how did Hearts vote? Were they promised reconstruction if they voted to end it? A rumour Budge has Doncaster lying at a meeting of the clubs,this could get messy.
Surely the SPFL could threaten Hearts and Thistle with expulsion from the leagues.If they had the bottle.Could be carnage ahead.Delayed start to the season,fixtures.None of this would help us,with the Qualifiers due to start in August.On the subject of the qualifiers,not beyond the realms of possibility,we could get 3 away ties.Looks like a bit of a minefield.So much money depending on chance.Of course,UEFA dont really give a toss.Wee diddy’s clubs only paid a bit of lip service now and again.
If we were in Hearts’ shoes people on CQN would want Celtic to push it all the way.
A 14 team league would have been an improvement..
My friends in Celtic,
Waaaayago some of us reckoned that Hearts and Thistle had a valid argument.
Obviously I look to protect all things Celtic, first and foremost, but legal action was inevitable.
Imo a 14 team league is preferable.to a 12 team league.
And as predicted on here waaayago , closed game football is now the reality.
Some CQN,ers are really quite astute.
HH to all.
6 arrests in George Sq yesterday,for”minor disturbances”according to Glasgows finest.4 police having to wrestle a nutter on the ground to try and handcuff him,does not seem minor to me.Openly challenging Police with threatening intent,ditto.Racist,foul language being directed at Police and the peaceful demonstration being attacked,in the present climate,would seem to be a good bit more serious,than”Minor offences”.
Good morning from a very wet North Staffordshire.
Vera Lynn RIP
Just saw this headline over on “Celtic News Now”.
Neil McCann’s campaign to become Hearts manager is underway
Brilliant, absolutely brilliant. IF the Jambos are around next season (not guaranteed, the way they are conducting themselves) it would be enjoyable in the extreme to watch not one but two entities squirming and failing. Hearts, under the Budgie, have been getting worse and worse as a club over the last few years, and McCann found out during his stint at Dundee that it is much easier to sit in a studio and criticise football professionals than actually be out there doing the job. Luverly jubberly, nice wee distraction.
BTW if you haven’t already done so, dump the NewsNowCeltic site, which is 90% clickbait for mainly anti-Celtic sites these days, and go for Celtic News Now, a site which searches for Celtic-related news and articles.
Ave Ave
Isn’t it a funny world.
Sevco have won nothing and struggling to stay afloat. They give their supporters virtually nothing by way of a refund and yet they are playing the basic ‘no one likes us’ the SPFL and SFA all against us card and are well in way to selling out their stadium Again for next season.
Celtic has won 9 in a row and maybe even up for a 4th treble in a row, offers fans a refund which many do take up, and then struggles to sell season books for a potentially momentous season ahead. One which could be the most incredible in our history as fans don’t engage ?
Weird. When the basket case club supporters are more keen to see their team prevent Celtic win than our supporters seem to be to see us win a record breaking title. Complacency CFC ?
Timaloy,and Greenpinta,
I agree,that a 14 team league would have been better.In saying that,I thought the that if the majority of clubs voted against,then that was it.Is that not the way it works?Personally,I am confused about what their case will be.Both clubs signed up to the rules of the SPFL one of which was the rule that the league would finish on the last game played,as decided by the SPFL.The rule that gave us the Chamionship.They signed up to this.
Confused .Com.
Patsy Gallagher lived in Lennox ave Scotstoun…anyone know what number??
Burnley 78,
I think you will find that we will sell our ST out again .The views on this blog are thankfully,on occasions,not the thoughts of the vast majority of fans.
If everyone had taken up their rebates,the club would have been 6 million down.If 100 and odd quid is critical to your life,by all means take it,if not,I have no idea why any fan would take it.
Police Scotland happy to arrest GB guys at airports, and 6am raids at their homes,for singing songs,yet they will be well aware of who the organisers, and main suspects of the loyalist gangs,who regularly cause mayhem on our streets, 6 arrests? They know they can cause bother as a free hit.
One potential avenue for Hearts would be to argue that the SPFL board was too quick to call the season and that in doing so, they acted unreasonably which unfairly impacted them.
However, Hearts alongside all the Premiership clubs are on record as saying the league could not be played to a conclusion and voted to end it. I think they’ve undermined their own legal argument.
I’ll be amazed if this goes anywhere. My guess is that they’re hoping that threats of delaying the season will nudge the SPFL into a settlement outside of court.
Reconstruction is not happening.
As a week known mineshafter who has purchased ST and not taken refund I disagree with B78 take on Celtic fans
No change there the P 😉
Bada – Superintendent in charge of policing last night’s fash bash is a big Celtic fan. Played football with him briefly many many moons ago….
Big Wavy
Don’t forget Eddie Smith ex Holy cross and Celtic fab was Police chief who made 1st complaint re songs at Celtic Park during offensive behaviour at football shambles
TURKEYBHOY
I’m with you on this TurkeyBhoy.
With thousands on a waiting list, I suspect Celtic will sell season tickets at the same levels we’ve seen in previous years.
We’ll get an idea one way or another when the seats not sold go out to the waiting list.
I’m on the waiting list and will report back on here as to roughly how many free seats were on the interactive stadium map after I buy mine.
Latest faulty recollection from Super Sally:-
“I was at a meeting as Rangers manager involving the SFA and some other characters and the subject of title-stripping came up. I stood up and slammed my papers together.
“There were about 14, 15 people at the meeting and I said, ‘Gentlemen, you’ll have to excuse me because from this moment on I’m taking absolutely no part in this madness’ and I walked out of the room.
“Not only was it a non-starter for me, it was people trying to play to an audience that should never have existed.
“I look back and I tell people, Juventus actually got caught blatantly cheating and they were put down one division for a year. Now I’m not asking people to make comparisons, I’m making a statement of fact.”
Rangers’ use of the EBT scheme played a key role in their financial demise as it led to a tax dispute with HMRC.
But McCoist insists he does not think the club were guilty of cheating. He said: “No I don’t, absolutely not at all.
“A lot of people were making those (EBT) payments at that particular time. Now that doesn’t necessarily make it right but I don’t for one minute think that anybody involved at Rangers FC was carrying that out thinking they were cheating – absolutely no way.”
Of course Rangers didn’t think they were cheating.
If they thought they were cheating they would have sought to have concealed the evidence but they were very open about the side letters and …oh wait a minute.