I want to take a look at what Uefa might do this week that could have an impact on others, as well as our finances. Expect lots of news from Uefa, who have a videoconference on Wednesday and Thursday. We should learn how last season’s Champions and Europa Leagues will conclude, what next season’s qualification competition will look like and the calendar of dates for next season, with guidance on transfer windows.
A relatively minor point with more bearing in Scotland will be discussed on Thursday, how Financial Fair Play (FFP) will be enforced with respect to the crisis. You will remember we discussed Newco’s position with respect to FFP in a lengthy article in February. Without revisiting detail, the scenario required them to sell significantly before the 30 June financial year end to prevent them breaching FFP regulations.
FFP breaches do not instantly or automatically lead to disqualification from Uefa competition, but it would require the club to take “rehabilitative action” or else face consequences, including the ultimate Uefa sanction. Rehabilitative action means cutting costs, significantly so, in the case of Newco.
Current FFP rules allows for exemptions due to exceptional circumstances, which the current crisis certainly is. The process effectively adds-in revenue or subtracts costs you would otherwise see were it not for the exceptional circumstances, so in theory, Newco could claim allowance for a few lost revenue (although unlike Celtic, this will be very limited as they did not offer refunds).
We have to hope that no substantive changes are made to FFP rules.
Scottish football was a different place when we looked at Newco’s finances in February. Celtic’s interim accounts to 31 December showed £32m in the bank, we were on our way to nine-in-a-row and finances were very stable. 10 of the 12 others in the Premiership were living within their means and we had a new TV deal to look forward to. Since then, red ink has bled everywhere.
Our operating expenses for the first 6 months of the financial year were £7.6m per month. The manager, coaches and execs have taken pay cuts, while furloughed staff costs are met by the taxpayer, but I expect the deferrals players took will all have to be paid by the time this financial year closes on 30 June. Cash burn since 1 January will not be as high as £7.6m per month, but it will be close to this until lockdown started on 23 March and no lower than £4m per month since. There has been very little income since the new year (Copenhagen, some Scottish Cup and league receipts, retail), with money going out for refunds.
So what does this mean for our finances? The £32m balance at 1 Jan is likely to get us through to the financial year-end, plus or minus a couple of million either way. By 30 June, season ticket money will be in, but there is no way of knowing how well tickets will sell compared to previous seasons (we’ll not sell more, clearly).
Until lockdown is over, there will be close to nothing from stadium operations (£7.6m last season) and retail (£12.9m last season). The SPFL hopes to have fans attend games by October (the Championship business plan is counting on it), but we are looking at July, August and September with little income from many revenue streams. Next season’s finances are down to season ticket sales, Uefa qualification and a late bump from 10-in-a-row merchandise during what is likely to be a recession.
Champions League qualification brought media rights income to £33.9m in season 2017-18, the following season this dropped to (a still impressive) £15.7m for the Europa League campaign (other Euro revenues, like ticket sales, are not included in these figures).
If we qualify for the Champions League next season, I expect we will break-even. Progress through the Europa group stage and we will make a sizeable loss and a return to debt. Failure to reach the Europa League group stage would see us return a larger loss than at any time in our history by a huge margin.
Having spent this week looking at our finances and those of others in the Premiership, there are lots of unknowns ahead and just one certainty. Uefa are expected to confirm qualification competitions will be a single game each round, drawn randomly, home or away. Celtic should be seeds all the way through, but that advantage is lessened by an expectation of some away legs. Luck of the draw will never be more important.
We are going to win the league; I could not be more sure of this. I have not touched on Newco’s finances here but if you are interested, you can read back what we discussed in February. We might have problems to manage but they are a busted flush. It will all play out in the months ahead.
The season ahead could return the largest loss in the next 50 years of Celtic history. If so, we will need to work our way back, which will not be done overnight. Even the ‘sell to England’ strategy is not likely to be effective, as transfer fees are likely to suffer due to the crisis. Oh, and I think we need players for several positions, at least as cover.
When you look at Partick Thistle and others throughout the world, these are First World Problems. We have 10 to focus on, but just as winning nine-in-a-row did not happen as we wanted, the journey between here and next May is likely to be a rocky road.
285 Comments- Pages:
- «
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4
- 5
- 6
- 7
- 8
Big W- IMO, these gangs and ‘protests’ are tolerated at a much higher level than a superintendent, they let the faux oppressed their days out,terrorizing priests,and families in city centres, with minimal arrests,which are token gestures. A bit like prisoners being allowed drugs,to keep them calm,while the warders turn a blind eye.
As far as I can see there is only one way Hearts & Thistle can win their case, that is to resurrect the Hun Dossier & persuade a Judge that the initial vote was flawed, The Clubs again in a second vote rejected this scenario so it’s a big ask for a Judge to rule against SPFL.
However the Law is an Ass so you can never be absolutely certain.
Defending themselves is going to cost the SPFL money, No Guarantee they will win costs even if they win case, so I reckon an out of Court Financial settlement is their target.
`Garment worn by one above French city.`(5)
– i – o –
On football:
Should we really be lumping Hearts and Thistle together? Is it not the case that Thistle have a higher points per game than do the team currently above them ?
Cork Celt
And it will cost Hearts, PT and everyone else either way. Where do they think the suggested £10m will come from? Heads they lose, tails they lose. An act of complete self-immolation to rail against the solution decided upon by the Clubs themselves. Hearts had the opportunity to create a solution acceptable to the other Clubs, not once but twice. That they did not is telling. And let’s conveniently forget their dismal performances on the field of play – aye caramba
HH
I would suggest that the date of ST deadline is deliberate ie payday. That’s how I can afford it, needed another payday😱
BURNLEY78
Plus ca change.
Cold pies, cold bovril, no hot water, no towels, Douglas Park’s buses , blah, blah, blah.
Bit different Next season though despite the 10, Celtic have a more difficult season ticket to sell than ever, it’s a season ticket to not get in, and see Celtic.
Maintining 52,000 with a big price increase is a tough ask even with a virtual ST lobbed in, and there are those that are rightfully moaning because they won’t be able to afford it due to Corona Virus.
But it’s Celtic. 👍
No answer to my 11:00 am crossword clue?
HOT SMOKED on 18TH JUNE 2020 11:00 AM
Answers are normally posted before I’ve read. Is garment worn, DJ on (dinner jacket)? Add i to give Dijon.
—————————————————————-
Equally off topic, well done all involved with Sky at Night during lockdown. I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the blagging it from the back garden approach.
Forego flights to faraway universities and CGI gizmos, simply to turn a camera up to the sky and talking about what we can see works for me.
And let’s conveniently forget their dismal performances on the field of play
—-
Yeah that will work against them too. Hearts were not arbitrarily singled out and voted out of the league.
The league was finished on points per games played and sporting merit is central to the placings regardless of what the huns or mini huns contest.
It might not always be easy to know which actions and choices in life satisfy us most but , if possible, make those choices. Renewing was the right choice for me.
Ally Sally in the record talking about title stripping. I don’t read the record so I don’t know what he is saying. At the time when mcoist stated publicly that rangers would not accept title stripping lawwell should have immediately responded by stating that celtic would not accept not stripping the titles. He should have demanded that justice be done and the titles be awarded to celtic. For celtic to say and do nothing is scandalous.
GUYFAWKESAFOREVERHERO
Good man !
I did put Dijon in ( I wanted the Crossword to look complete !!) but didn`t think of DJ for `garment` !!
Thanks again.
I can feel as content now as I did when I renewed :-))
Westcraigs
I often feel I have insufficient evidence to extrapolate enough to form a worthwhile opinion but my gut reaction is the same as your on this matter.
I’ve no issue with McCoist spouting his nonsense. He is what he is, I’d expect nothing else.
My anger is directed at the journalists who give EBT recipients a platform to pontificate from without questioning why the side letters existed, without highlighting the court testimonies that state rangers used EBTs to attract players they could not ordinarily afford etc
In other words, McCoist should be challenged and it wouldn’t be that difficult.
Instead we get zero journalistic scrutiny with the McCoists and Ales Raes of the world given free reign to obfuscate and lie.
An Dun
So true.
Cheerio for now.
The current blog is a neat introduction to mine on Sentinel Celts
https://sentinelcelts.com/2020/06/17/losing-the-sense-of-community/
as it examines an alternative business model based on club membership for all Celtic supporters in different circumstances.
Apart from the Virtual ST for closed door games being the initial reason for thinking ahead, the other was loss of profitability which is where Paul ends.
Dont rule out DD wanting to sell up rather than stay in and cover some of the loss so I hope some will have a look and check comments.
In brief if we want to keep Celtic alive for what it is (a large community club) rather than what it is not (a profit centre) we as a support need to revisit our attitudes and find ways of sharing the load more equitably across the support as well as getting a say for our money.
new article posted.
Turkeybhoy, An Dun, Blantyre Tim
I really hope you are all correct. Info I am picking up is that the lowest common denominator approach taken by Sevco is paying off handsomely and they are outselling us for the season ahead by 50% !
The risk is even greater as our product is out of the shop window for so long due to early end of season !
The bigger risk is we now will he playing qualifiers for Europe Vs teams all far less ‘ring rusty’ than we will be.
Our custodians need to earn their corn and our fan base needs to engage or we risk throwing away 20 years of dominance in 1 close season.
Latest faulty recollection from Super Sally:-
“I was at a meeting as Rangers manager involving the SFA and some other characters and the subject of title-stripping came up. I stood up and slammed my papers together.
How the F55K can you slam paper together.