van Dijk and the 50-80 game value opportunity

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Likely summer signing number two, Virgil van Dijk, arrived in Glasgow this morning for a medical after terms were agreed with the player and his club, Groningen.  The 6’4” player, who will be 22 next month, is a Dutch under-21 international.

Virgil is two weeks younger than Victor Wanyama and emerged into the Groningen team around the same time Victor pitched up in Glasgow, they have made almost exactly the same number of appearances for their respective clubs, 62 top flight games in total, in the case of Virgil.

62 games is an interesting figure.  Enough to bed in, catch local scouts’ eyes and have well-travelled men from Glasgow watch several times before making a recommendation.  Not enough to catch the eyes of less well-organised, but no less resourceful, scouts in the bottom half of the English Premier League, who Celtic now seem to compete for talent with.

If Virgil is the real deal, another couple of dozen games might have changed the competition for his signature.

Is there a 50-80 game window which can deliver sufficient evidence of a player’s talent, but not too much evidence, which evaporates the value gap?  This hypothesis would be easy to test and if it holds would provide an interesting filter on the hundreds of names pushed to the club each year.

Have you booked for the Lions Roar event at Celtic Park tomorrow night?  Last and precious opportunity to watch how the European Cup was won with the men who did the work.  In short, priceless.  Tickets available here.

Speaking of the men who won it, buy Heart of a Lion here:


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961 Comments

  1. 16 roads – Neil Lennon walks on water.

     

     

    The model since Neil Lennon became manager is to win trophies. That is what he has done.

     

    We haven’t sold many and I don’t think we have sold one first team regular since he became manager. Celtic have kept their players happy. Nobody appears to want to leave.

     

    The press are playing games as usual but nobody has actually came out and said they want to leave as yet.

     

    The signings we have made so far appear to be similar to the last couple of years. These guys should be eager and hungry for success. That is the model that most team go with. Look at how many established players Alex Ferguson or Arsene Wenger have signed to use examples of the EPL. They rarely sign established stars. They have much more cash and occasionally buy a player like van Persie but in the main they go for young hungry players who want to improve and require some coaching to polish them up.

     

    These guys obviously operated a few rungs up the ladder from Celtic but their philosophy was the same buy them young if they don’t work out you haven’t spent much. Buy them while their egos, temperament and attitude is still good.

     

    Mould them into the type of player you need to fit the team.

     

    Get them before they settle down and have kids. This usually sees some players lose their edge slightly. Some don’t and if their kids are settled in Scotland and most usually like the Scottish way of life they don’t want to leave (See Henke, Chris Sutton).

     

    What Celtic are doing is nothing new. We are using a model that even Jock Stein probably used as Celtic boss. get them in young while they are still learning and eager to learn. Coach them and hone their skills. If they wannt to go or the club feel they have to cash in they go.

     

    What we have done in recent seasons which we have failed to do in the past is have the next batch of players we want to acquire in our sights early in the window and either get them early or make sure they are signed before anyone may leave.

     

    The model is working. The team are winning!

     

    When the team stop winning that is the time to ask questions.

     

     

    LB

  2. Steinreignedsupreme on

    Dontbrattbakkinanger 15:07 on 20 June, 2013

     

     

    “Danny Mcgrain didn’t have to be good in the air as Packy Bonner cut out all the crosses.”

     

     

    And then big Packy usually dropped the ball…

  3. livibhoy

     

     

    15:22 on 20 June, 2013

     

    proudbhoy

     

     

    Efe will be fine. I think the Bhoy has something to offer.

     

    Can’t turn on the Bhoy after a few bad games. He will come good again.

     

     

    LB

     

     

     

     

    I havent, very impressed With him before he went to play in africa in january. played in winning team and also got in team of the tournament but since them hes been shocking.

     

     

    Hopefully he gets good rest and some good man management will have him playing again.

     

     

    Cant keep shuffing him around park .

  4. Re the new home top.

     

    Mmmmmm….not for me.

     

    I was hoping that they would have kept the hard K ‘Celtic’ design around the badge.

     

    Then again, as my wife and daughter will testify, I know he haw about what is fashionable.

     

     

    ~SPF~

  5. The new strip does it for me too…….. but I’m not sure whether the hoops within hoops will compliment Cha Mul Grew’s body artwork.

     

     

    I think Anto’s ‘swirly design’ tattoo work and Skoosh’s ‘wee wean’s hand’ should go quite well with it though.

  6. A stor

     

    canamalar1:

     

     

    And only a fool would ever forgert the immortal words of Mr. Jock Stein…

     

     

    Football is nothing without Fans.

     

     

    Unfortunately with the advent of SKY fans are a poor second place to TV.

     

    I’m sure SKY would prefer an empty stadium with fans watching in their homes and pubs and they can have games starting at 9 in the morning through to 10 at night…

  7. The Battered Bunnet on

    Uncle Fester

     

     

    Yip, Thistle have had a dreadful time of late, and were close to going out of business earlier in the year. I’m not sure what the future holds for them, but good luck to them in any event.

     

     

    The Showpark project is still on the table as far as I understand it, although the club doesn’t own the ground and therefore isn’t directly involved. It would be a good move imo in terms of transforming the facility.

  8. Dontbrattbakkinanger on

    I have no tattoos.

     

     

    I don’t even have any body piercings.

     

     

    In the future the strip will be directly painted onto the body.

     

     

    I feel so left behind by the rubbishness of the modern game.

  9. 16 roads - Neil Lennon walks on water. on

    LiviBhoy

     

    15:31 on

     

    20 June, 2013

     

     

    I agree with almost all of that mate,also it kills me to be critical of the club in any way,shape or form.

     

     

    Maybe i am just being greedy and selfish here – i always believed that we could be kings of Europe once again.

     

     

    Not with this policy,i don’t think it is ever going to happen.You just can’t sell your best footballer.

     

     

    And this scatter gun tactic – buying three or four players at between £1million and £2million – hoping they will be excellent footballers,mainly so they can be sold on.All that this is,is gambling mate.For every Victor,there are five Banguras.

     

     

    If you are serious about competing – Go and spend the money on one or two proven footballers – go and buy Aiden McGeady.

  10. A Stor Mo Chroi on

    Does anybody remember the days when Celtic used to farm out their promising players to the juniors, I think that would be the making of a prospect as skilful as Filip Twardzik. As for Dylan McGeoch, no need, he already has the stare of Scott Brown and the bottle to back himself up. He has the skill and the ability, he just needs a settled squad and the managers faith to prove that he is worthy.

  11. For me the biggest surprise is that the new strip doesn’t come complete with a set of headphones for the modren non communicative RnB lovin’ footballer.

  12. The new strip…. The short sleeved top looks better than the long sleeved one. Might be better to see it in the flesh.. Didn’t like the black away top in photos but really liked it when I saw it in the Celtic shop…

  13. The Battered Bunnet on

    DBBIA

     

     

    Given Anto Stokes’ proficiency in dealing with recovering prize stock from canals and such like, perhaps Bournesouprecipe might enlist his help next time he’s down the Clyde looking for the gazebo and wing mirrors?

  14. 16 roads – Neil Lennon walks on water.

     

     

     

    15:21 on 20 June, 2013

     

     

    Don’t like the sound of it either, but you only have to look southward to see why it is a finance based set up, being so close to the world’s best league does not leave us with many options. Now if we were outside of the SPFL with more marketing opportunities we may be able to hold on to players and have players who want to stay and not be the proverbial “stepping stone”, and let the marketing side offset our payroll.

     

     

    gsu

  15. A Stor…,

     

    Just had a wee retread at your suggested resolution fear being the response to the first part is “aye” next

  16. Neustadt-Braw on

    Efe will come good ….cannot wait till his next goal….flicky flicky flacky …braw!

  17. Dontbrattbakkinanger on

    Yorkbhoy – Sky are horrified at the prospect of empty stadia, even though the huge sums generated by tv doesn’t prevent Arsenal charging £132 to get into the emirates .

     

     

    Sky want to project the games they show as big events, but the gaps in the stands tell a different story.

     

     

    You can only fool the people for so long before the nakedness of emperor Rupert will be revealed.

  18. A Stor Mo Chroi on

    yorkbhoy:

     

     

    Without fans there would be no Sky coverage of football without fans. The fans are the ubiquitous carnival, the teams are just passing floats.

     

     

    I hate what Sky has done to the game I love, but I don’t blame them. I do however believe that spreading the wealth and the exposure would enhance the game across the glove and nowhere more than in England. How crap has the English team been since Sky reared its greed.

  19. Dontbrattbakkinanger on

    TBB – Anto’s altruism knows no bounds.

     

     

    Ideally a major new signing would be admiring himself in the wing mirrors when the gazebo catastrophe strikes.

  20. A Stor Mo Chroi on

    canamalar1:

     

     

    If they answer yes then in the eyes of some they would be not only be complicit but endorsing.

     

     

    Trust would be blowing in the wind.

  21. 16 roads – Neil Lennon walks on water.

     

    15:44 on

     

    20 June, 2013

     

     

    The list of Lenny’s signings (excluding loans as they are generally just squad fillers for a limited period of time) would suggest that we are a lot better in the transfer market than ‘for every Victor there’s 5 Banguras’. More successes than failures IMO. Our worst signings have been those we paid most for (Hooper being the exception).

     

     

     

    18 Tom Rogic, £400,000 from Central Coast Mariners, Jan 2013

     

    ———————

     

    11 LassadNouioui, free fromDeportivo La Coruña, Sep 2012

     

    ?? Luboš Kamenár, loan from Nantes Aug 2012??

     

    ?? Efe Ambrose, Undisclosed fee from Ashdod Aug 2012 [BBC]

     

    ———————

     

    40 Rabiu Ibrahim free Jan 2012

     

    23 Mikael Lustig free from Rosenborg Jan 2012

     

    39 Andre Blackman free from AFC Wimbledon Nov 2011

     

    ———————

     

    14 Mohamed Bangura £2.2M from AIK Fotboll [STV]

     

    67 Victor Wanyama, £900,000 from Germinal Beerschot [BBC]

     

    02 Adam Matthews, Bosman from Cardiff City June 2011 [BBC]

     

    06 Kelvin Wilson, Bosman from Nottingham Forest June 2011 [BBC]

     

    46 Dylan McGeogh, Bosman from Rangers June 2011

     

    ———————

     

    15 Kris Commons, £300k form Derby County January 2011 [BBC]

     

    32 Tony Watt, £100k from Airdire United January 2011 07

     

    07 Freddie Ljungberg, Free December 2010 [BBC] 77

     

    ———————

     

    26 Fraser Forster, on loan from Newcastle United August 2010 [BBC]

     

     

    03 Emilio Izaguirre £580k from Motagua August 2010 [BBC]

     

    05 Daniel Majstorović from AEK Athens August 2010 [BBC]

     

    ———————

     

    33 Beram Kayal, undisclosed from Maccabi Haifa July 2010 [BBC]

     

    88 Gary Hooper, £2.4M from Scunthorpe July 2010 [BBC]

     

    04 Efrain Juarez undisclosed from UNAM Pumas July 2010 [BBC]

     

    27 Daryl Murphy £1.5M from Sunderland July 2010 [BBC]

     

    16 Joe Ledley, free/out of contract from Cardiff City July 2010 [BBC]

     

    11 Cha Du-Ri, free from SC Freiburg July 2010 [BBC]

     

    21 Charlie Mulgrew, free from Aberdeen July 2010 [BBC]

  22. a stor mo chroi

     

     

    15:46 on 20 June, 2013

     

    Does anybody remember the days when Celtic used to farm out their promising players to the juniors, I think that would be the making of a prospect as skilful as Filip Twardzik. As for Dylan McGeoch, no need, he already has the stare of Scott Brown and the bottle to back himself up. He has the skill and the ability, he just needs a settled squad and the managers faith to prove that he is worthy.

     

     

     

     

    I agree, i want to see 2/3 players out on loan even until christmas

  23. valentinesday on

    A royal winner….as my pick wis a nr fell onto the fav

     

    will put a wee bit extra in the plate on Sunday…..happy

     

    for Lizzie…….won’t make up fur whit happened tae

     

    her team……they died ya know.

  24. 16 roads - Neil Lennon walks on water. on

    Greensideup is also Neil Lennon

     

    15:48 on

     

    20 June, 2013

     

     

    I suppose you are right mate,guess we just have to bide our time.

     

     

    CQN – The voice of reason,as always.

     

     

    Over & out.

  25. Uncle Fester on

    The Battered Bunnet,

     

     

    Yeah, I know the Club don’t own the land and that’s obviously been a huge hindrance to them moving forward.

     

     

    It’s owned by the farming community and they have a cattle show on it every year! Not so fond memories of reporting for training to find coo dung all over the place.

     

     

    Never knew plans were still afoot to redevelop the place so hopefully they can be pushed thru.

     

     

    UF

  26. 16 roads - Neil Lennon walks on water. on

    Kayal33

     

    15:56 on

     

    20 June, 2013

     

     

    I was perhaps being over-critical of the club there chara – Appreciate the points that you have made,and have to agree.

     

     

    Our manager must be given credit,as you have stated – in real terms,he has spent the square root of nothing.

     

     

    Thanks.

  27. *THE KING VIC 67* on

    Can anyone tell me if you can still buy the CQN magazine in Cathedral house hotel?

     

     

    Don’t have the time to wait for it to be posted.

     

     

    HH

  28. Stoksey was at training today anyway. Not sure about the likes of Lassad , Gershon or Paddy. I’m surprised there has been no official Club announcement re the future of these players.

  29. NatKnow - "We welcome the paper-chase..." on

    A Dutch international can mean only one thing…an orange away strip will be a money-spinner!!

  30. As much as I love the Celtic, that is one kit I will not be buying. I wish they would stop messing with the hoops. Experiment with the away top every year if necessary but leave the hoops alone.