There’s a remarkable lack of nerves ahead of tonight’s game against Inter Milan in the San Siro. Perhaps, for many of us, all we expected from this tie was a sign that the progress we believe has taken place in recent months, would stand up to the scrutiny of European examination. Last week, it did.
So with a Key Performance Indicator delivered, thoughts turn to knocking Inter out of Europe. My expectations are wide open, literally, anything could happen tonight, from an historic win to a painful lesson, but we know enough about Ronny Deila to know that this afternoon he will explain to the players the plan to win the game. We will not pack our 18 yard box, nor bring catenaccio home.
Celtic will play with the freedom enjoyed by a team with nothing to lose. Inter have home advantage and three away goals on the board, but they also have the weight of expectation. No one in Italy expects Celtic to progress.
The key Inter expectation is that they will score enough against a weak Celtic back line. Based on last week’s 90 minutes, this is not unreasonable. What Inter don’t know, is if Celtic’s back four and Craig Gordon had a one-off exceptionally bad day.
The greatest football stories are made when triumph is grasped from failure. Celtic can score tonight, but if they win, it will be because Craig Gordon and his defenders have decided: None shall pass.
Our good friends at Magners have offered a pair of premium tickets in the Jock Stein Stand for Sunday’s SPFL game. To win the tickets, answer this question:
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Put your answer IN THS SUBJECT LINE of an email to me at celticquicknews@gmail.com. Competition closes at 5pm tonight. Winner will be notified tomorrow, so check your inbox.
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Geordie Munro,
I got your wherever/whenever joke…even if no one else did! ;-)
2-1 tae the bhoys tonight
These articles do make me laugh ronnie has a plan,well that will be a first,only hope for tonight no injuries no extra time get home quick and prepare for a much more important game,if we continue to struggle in league Lawwell and the daft manager should chuck it
What time is kick off
from the Guardian:
It was enough to make those football pundits who revel in the old days and old ways collectively choke on their beans and sausages. Brentford would, a club statement announced, be parting company with their respected manager Mark Warburton, switching to a continental structure with a head coach and sporting director, and using mathematical modelling to help recruit players. The response of one former professional, Micky Quinn, was not untypical. “They want a head coach and mathematical modelling … Ha, ha, good luck with that.”
What Quinn may not realise is that the blueprint for Brentford’s future is already being stress-tested 800 miles away at FC Midtjylland, who lead Denmark’s Superliga by six points and are on course for the first trophy in their history. And who is the majority shareholder in Midtjylland? Matthew Benham, the former hedge fund manager and professional gambler who also owns Brentford.
When Benham invested £6.2m in Midtjylland last July he appointed Rasmus Ankersen – a 31-year-old former player, Uefa A-licence coach, entrepreneur and author – as the chairman. Ankersen promised to challenge the conventional ways of running a football club and to put Midtjylland on the map. He is doing just that. “When I am being provocative I tell people that our coach, Glen Riddersholm, will never be sacked based on our league position,” Ankersen says. Instead Ankersen tells him he will be judged on whether he achieves certain key performance indicators (KPIs) which, over the long term, the club believes are more indicative of success.
Ankersen won’t reveal everything about the club’s use of data, but does say that Midtjylland pay particular attention to what he calls “dangerous situations” in games. Interestingly, they are a client of E4talent, which tracks shots in the “danger zone” – an area that stretches from the start of the six-yard box to the edge of the penalty area – from which 77% of Premier League goals are scored.
Set pieces are another focus. Midtjylland have scored 15 goals from set pieces from 17 games, an average of 0.88 per game, the second highest in Europe. Only Atlético Madrid, with an average of 1.04 a game, are more prolific. The highest in the Premier League are Arsenal with 15 in 26 games, an average of 0.57.
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Data also informs what Midtjylland’s coaches say to the players and the press. As Ankersen explains, at half-time the coaches are sent texts before they speak to players outlining how the team are measuring up to certain key metrics. “These effective KPIs give a more accurate message to the players and the press,” he insists.
Too often in football, the result determines the narrative – for managers, reporters and fans. Ankersen dismisses this as facile. “For instance, when we played at home against the bottom team, we won 2-1,” he says. “But our model massively downgraded us because we were super lucky. A lot of people said well done but it was a terrible performance – that is the message we should convey. No one wants to say they were lucky when they win. But in football success turns luck into genius.”
Midtjylland’s success is also partly down to their excellent youth academy, which Ankersen helped get off the ground a decade ago: usually five or six starters in their games are home-grown. The emergence of the Danish under-21 international Pione Sisto, who has been linked with many top sides in Europe, is another factor. But using mathematical modelling as well as traditional scouting has helped the club acquire players they believe are undervalued, including Kris Olsson from Arsenal, Marco Ureña from Kuban Krasnodar and Jim Larsen from Club Brugge.
This is fascinating, radical stuff, and it is driven by Benham. Ankersen remembers that when he met him, he asked him whether Brentford would get promoted from League One. “From a football guy you would expect a yes or no, or an answer with emotion,” he says. “But he just looked at me and said: ‘There is a 42.3% chance that we will go up.’ I knew then he thought very differently about football.”
Of course he does. Benham has made fortunes betting on football, but he has not done it by following the sheep who place long-odds accumulators and trust in blind luck. Instead he has developed a deeper understanding about why teams win matches, constructed statistical models and used them to exploit inefficiencies and errors in bookmaker prices.
Can such a data-driven approach really be applied to running a football club? We are about to find out. But it seems perfectly reasonable to expect that by taking advantage of inefficiencies in the transfer market and elsewhere, adopting the best practice of clubs such as Southampton and employing super-smart data analysts, Brentford and Midtjylland can punch further above their weight. Ankersen certainly has no doubts. “In the past year I have learned that the brightest guys in football work in the betting industry, because they are much more rational and less biased,” he says.
None of us know what will happen next. But we can say this. Brentford and Midtjylland are clearly going the right way and their stories over the next few years will make fascinating viewing. And while Benham has taken some flak in recent days, history teaches us that in the long run it is unwise to bet against him.
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INTER V CELTIC STAT PACK Ahead of tonight’s Europa League clash at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, let’s get the inside track on the match with statistics from Football Data Inter unbeaten in ten Europa League matches Inter haven’t lost in the Europa League since 7 March 2013, when they were beaten 3-0 by Tottenham Hotspur at White Hart Lane. Since then, the Nerazzurri have amassed an impressive record of six wins and four draws. 26 Feb a good date for Nerazzurri in Europe Inter are unbeaten in their last three European matches played on 26 February. The Nerazzurri have won one (a 0-2 victory over Partizan in the 1963/64 European Cup) and drawn two (0-0 against Barcelona in the 2002/03 Champions League and 2-2 against Sochaux in the 2003/04 Europa League). Celtic in the goals in their last seven European matches Celtic have scored in each of their last seven European matches, finding the net no less than 13 times in total. The last time the Scots failed to score in Europe came on 26 August 2014, when they were turned over 0-1 by Maribor at Celtic Park. One win in 11 European away days for Celtic Celtic have only managed one win in their last 11 away fixtures in European competition. The sole victory was a 0-1 win against KR Reykjavik on 15 July 2015, in the Champions League qualifying rounds. Aside from that, the Hoops have drawn four and lost six. Slovakia’s Kruzliak to take charge Ivan Kruzliak, the Slovakian referee who’s been on the international circuit since 2011, is the man tasked with officiating Inter v Celtic tonight. The 30-year-old referee has never taken charge of a European match involving Italian or Scottish teams. Second bite at the cherry Tonight will see the second meeting of Roberto Mancini and Ronny Deila as managers. The first came just seven days ago in Glasgow, of course, with the match finishing in a thrilling 3-3 draw. Unbeatable Inter Inter have never lost at home to Scottish opposition. In the five previous encounters between the Nerazzurri and a team from Scotland, Inter have won four and drawn one, against Celtic in the 1971/72 season. In total Inter have played Scottish teams 12 times, amassing an overall record of five wins, four draws and three defeats. Celtic winless in Italy Tonight will see Celtic take on Italian opposition for the 25th time. In total, the Hoops have managed five wins, eight draws and 11 defeats. Celtic have never won against Italian opposition in Italy in 11 attempts, drawing three and losing eight.
001
WC,
Just voted. I think the question should have been framed differently. If I were asked if Celtic CAN win, I would have voted Yes. As it is, I voted No.
Booker t,
Jg got it. So did loads others it’s just they probably thought it was pants lol.
Shame too. I had another volley of puns lined up :)
Interesting to see if Inter play Palacio and Icardi up front as they did at CP, where the played against Denayer and VvD keeping them pegged back. With our FBs pushing on , it left gaps wide which they exploited.
Also with Shaqiri playing at the top of a midfield diamond again we may need to play more of a 4321 (as we did away v Red Bull) with SA playing deeper at least for the first 30 minutes. Clean sheet till then essential.
If we keep it level, as the game wears on they will get tired (they played Monday) and anxious – that’s when mistakes are made.
No cheap mistakes at the back and must take chances that fall our way.
Isn’t it great to know that some time in the not to distant future Scotland will have the chance, which they’ll probably take, to vote on Indy gain.
The North Brit’s amongst us wont be pleased with that, Alfie, Ernie, PF and P67 but hey you know it’s comming just like christmas bhoys it’s comming.
F@ck yer brittish league.
Just read back and came across some drivel from Alfie about how the Labour party is going to be our saviour. Sorry Alfie we have been waiting for The Labour Party to grow a set of balls since the 1920’s. With a couple of notable exceptions LP has been full of careerist’s for over 60yrs and it wont change any time soon.
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaah, that’s better, I’m going for 2-1 to the mighty hoops tonight and I think we may see Gudetti on for Griff and Kriss on for GMS. Personally I’d stick with the team that did so well last week but feel Ronny may change things.
2 to 1 for the Celtic with the Inter scoring late only for Celtic to score in the 89th minute.
Our defence will be tested if the ball gets into our box. It will and we shall prevail.
Parkheadcumsalford
I thought about that but if you think about it, it is obvious that they CAN win – all they have to do is score one goal more than Inter. It is possible. Likely? A different matter. I voted yes incidentally.
Sevco 5088 striking off has been suspended. An objection has been received by the registrar . http://t.co/uvYxkbSOT1
Same starting line-up as last week will do me.
As or the game, a criticism I had last week, was after losing a goal, we were too keen to respond immediately. We tried the killer passes and lost possession a number of times because of this.
We need to learn to play our way into the game, show a bit of patience, keep the ball take a foul or two whatever, just ensure we don’t concede again shortly afterwards.
Hopefully there will be no need to learn the above lessons, and we’ll get a narrow victory.
Nervous as CSC.
Árd Macha
Parkheadcumsalford @ 12:50….
You WERE asked ‘do you think Celtic CAN win?’
Question is different from the title in the address bar
thehuddlehound
12:37 on 26 February, 2015
The Poll at http://www.cqnmagazine.com/poll-do-you-think-celtic-will-beat-inter-milan-tonight/
asks a different question in the address line from the actual question.
There’s a big difference between the questions: ‘Do you think Celtic WILL win in the San Siro tonight?’ and ‘Do you think Celtic CAN win in the San Siro tonight?’.
The answer to ‘CAN’ is obviously ‘yes’, but the answer to ‘WILL’ is not so certain.
Incidentally, I always thought the stadium was known as the San Siro when AC Milan were at home, and the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza when Inter Milan were at home.
…………………………………….
It’s the same situation as applies to us. San Siro is the district/area but Giuseppe Meazza is the name of the stadium.
Parkhead is the district/area but Celtic Park is the name of the stadium. Many football fans call both stadia after the areas they are sited in.
Tonight’s KO 6pm UK time.
I was in Milan in 1970 on that night when we lost to Feyenoord – right behind Evan William’s goal and he was constantly turning round telling us to make more noise and get behind the team.
We were supremely confident on the way to, and prior to, the game. The defeat of Leeds in the semi-final had turned out to in fact be our final – we had left the hunger at Hampden.
We came a cropper to an up and coming team, with no fear and the will to take the game to us.
Will we be that ‘no fear’ up and coming team tonight? – let’s hope so. HH
I was listening to Graham Taylor yesterday on the radio and he said all the possession stats were very often nonsense what is the use of having 85 % possession in a game and only 2 shots at goal.He said football is about scoring goals who wants to watch a 0-0 draw ? I though well said fella. H.H.
alfie noakes
If my memory serves me right, there was talk of a bust up between the club and the players about bonuses, before the game was played, not sure but?
These two screen grabs show Charles Greenas the sole director of Sevco 5088 Ltd . http://t.co/jZJKf00sia
These long posts play havoc wi’ ma ADHD.
Timgreen,
really interesting read – I wonder if Celtic should or are doing something similar?
Petethebeat – FFS!
Tonight the team might just do us justice … it’s important that our fans do the same for the reputation of the club.
http://thecelticblog.com/2015/02/blogs/a-deaf-ear
Craig gordon was shocking last week, absolutely sold the jerseys, Twice! Somehow that’s been turned in to ‘defence’s’ fault in the past week.
Lets hope his bottle holds this week.
I think virgil has come in for some unfair criticism since Thursday’s game particularly from Tenglish and the Nasal whine.
COYBIG
I thought our two centre backs displayed one common fault last week. They were almost level with the men they marked rather than a step back. Both, particularly Jason, were lucky we weren’t punished further than the 3 we lost. I hope the coaching staff will have worked on this basic defensive requirement with them.
maybe all these politico posts on here prove that celtic really is a club open to all
if these posters really do support celtic – and i have no real reason to believe they dont – then amongst our support we have scottish nationalists, irish nationalists, british nationalists amongst others and no doubt many more
though its not difficult to say who the most hun* like are – not necessarily in terms of what they say, but just how they say it and the arrogance and aggression they show to others via their posts
i think a seperate CQN Politico thread might be the way forward
*’hun’ being defined in how you act and not in what team you support or what god you do or dont follow which in my book is the correct definition of the word
Paul67 et al
I see the No voters are out in force today.
No?
.
l Believe in Lisbon we had 36 Shots on Goal..
Lets Do it Again Celtic..
But No more Goals of a Start..
001
james forrest
Good detail of what I posted this AM, well written.
I think we will loss a goal but confident we will score more than them!!!
B B
Whats that about???
Well well – new signing ???
Celtic News Now @CelticNewsNow 7 minutes ago
Boerrigter starts for Development Squad against Inverness CT http://bit.ly/17AXN5Y #Celtic @celticfc
embramike, thought he wuz on gardening leave ;-)
embramike
13:36 on
26 February, 2015
Well well – new signing ???
Celtic News Now @CelticNewsNow 7 minutes ago
Boerrigter starts for Development Squad against Inverness CT http://bit.ly/17AXN5Y #Celtic @celticfc
======
Waste of a jersey, better off promoting anyone at random from one of the lower age groups to see how they do. They may just surprise everyone but persist with Boeriggter and we’ll never know.
HH
BT gets a podium
BT is the luckiest Tim I know.
Cos he hangs out with Richie and Oldtim – at least that’s what they tell him.
Ergo – lucky Tim win tonight.
1-2
HH jamesgang
timgreen
Thanks for that link. Personally I find the stats culture creeping into football a bit dry but that’s what the coaches and professional players are paid for. There’s no doubt there is merit in it.
Hopefully the young coaches in Scotland are educated in this side of the game. We will be left even further behind the rest of the world if folk like Gordon Dalziel have a standing in the game here. A man who describes the notion that Celtic players are fitter this season as “nonsense”. (Despite the fact that Scott Brown has remarked on his improved fitness and Stuart Armstrong’s comments on Celtic training sessions).
When you read articles like that then hear Deila’s insistence on chips and fizzy drinks being cut out described as “controversial” by SMMS you do worry a little!
For GM the thinker….
A good Tim
TautologyCSC
HH jamesgang
Cant believe Boeriggter is still about??