For you and me, it was a dead rubber, an opportunity to watch Celtic without the pressure of winning or losing. For the players and coaches, not so much. The entirely-changed 11 who took the field played like they wanted to make an impact, as did an almost-as-changed Real Betis side.
The game was competitive, the nine added minutes at the end of the second half passed excruciatingly slowly; by that stage of the evening, no one’s head was in dead rubber territory.
When Albian Ajeti pulled up lame in the first half, Ange Postecoglou had plenty to ponder. At that moment, he was left with only one fit striker, Kyogo Furuhashi, the most valuable asset in Scottish football, who was resting on the bench.
Of course Kyogo came on. Ange did not set his team out to pull their punches, he wanted and got a performance. He gave fringe players their opportunity. Would it have been right for him to pull his own punches, 30 minutes into the game, by leaving his only striker on the bench? If he expects the players to commit, he has to commit and play the game competitively.
Management is so subtle. Selecting the right players and tactics is not nearly enough. If you want players to follow you, you have to live the role. Ange knew this when he told Kyogo to get stripped.
So what did we learn? James McCarthy looks more than comfortable in a Celtic shirt every time I see him. The player he was is slowly emerging. Liam Scales can feel aggrieved he has not had a sniff of proper action before this week. Stephen Welsh continues to grow into the role of Celtic central defender, a year after breaking into the team.
We finished third in a group against the third placed teams in Germany and Spain. Collecting six points from Ferencvaros was an objective delivered, although so much more could have been achieved as we allowed comfortable positions slip in Spain and Germany.
If you are old enough, you will remember being told Celtic win trophies when they first emerge. Perhaps the Europa Conference League will have its compensations.
Motherwell on Sunday afternoon is anything but a dead rubber. The Celtic FC Foundation Bucket Collection returns for the first time in two years, those in need remain numerous. The work of the Foundation does is remarkable and literally life changing at this time of year. It is our greatest boast.
483 Comments- Pages:
- «
- 1
- ...
- 5
- 6
- 7
- 8
- 9
- 10
- 11
- 12
- 13
- »
RIP Mike Nesmith
I have this vinyl somewhere in my attic – must get them down before long
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6NYFkzv71E
I thought Albian played a good game on Thursday. He husnae caught fire wae the Celtic Support. He was working his nuts aff for the Team. Respect.
I huv been a critic. Gutted he is injured, as he will run through a Brick wall for our Leader. That it is mightily Important.
Strongmen….. even StromGodset? is it Jane or Jan.
Ronny D
Legend – Murrayfield was NAF.
A better setup?
Who cares any more?
Last Season so hopefully ALL is GOOD.
Ronny Deila done a lot of GOOD WORK @ Celtic.
Good morning fholks, grand weekend to be a Celt…
SFtBs @ 11:09 PM,
I get the statistical analysis and its always going to be the case in football that you are going to get beat at some point, even by lesser teams.
It is the actually odds as well the implementation of strategies around them that I have an issue with.
Brendan Rodgers played nine qualifiers and won eight. That seems a much more reasonable statistical norm than 50/50.
Two points on the defeat.
We fell out of the UCL but qualified for the UEL that season.
Also we got defeated by arguably the best team we played in qualifying during BR’s era, under the poorest preparation.
So “real” factors obviously have a baring on the statistics.
The reason I used the Monty Hall problem was because the causal link between the early part of the game is obvious, yet the change in odds aren’t immediately obvious.
You have shown no dependent link between each qualifying round and have not properly expounded your conclusions. In fact I stick with my view that the odds are more akin to the Monte Carlo fallacy you point to.
Now I get there is a certain interdependence between each round insofar as if we fail in one round we don’t advance, (at least in that seasons competition, even though we may fall into a “lesser” competition, more on that later) .
Yet by the very fact we are playing in the next qualifying round means we have advanced so we are no longer dependent or directly influenced by the “last” result. The “current” round having a quality of independence from the previous one in that regard.
In fact there are many mitigating circumstances where the odds could improve as you advance through the qualifying stages.
If there is a major International tournament that year, we may have lost our top players in earlier rounds but have them back for the final qualifier.
Likewise the procurement and bedding in of a top (for us) quality striker may change the odds from the first qualifier and the final qualifier.
Lots of mitigating circumstances that are not weighed into your odds calculations.
It’s not as if I’m not au fait with risk in business, as I’ve stated before, in a previous life I was a Technology Consultant.
If you had gone into the offices of a Bank in those days you could be forgiven for feeling you were in a regressive time warp, technology wise.
They would be using an old version of Windows and there was no WiFi.
The reason for no WiFi was it couldn’t be secured and each version of Windows wasn’t robust enough on it’s launch, it took years in some cases before Banks would roll it out.
If you went in with your shiny new laptop with the latest version of Windows and asked to hook up to their wireless network you would be showing yourself up to be an amateur and probably shown the door.
So yes, risk has to be understood and analysed indifferent context for various areas of the business but you can’t mitigate out the risk of defeat in footballing terms and if you don’t invest in a squad of players to do your best in competitions because you may not win them you are setting yourself up for failure.
Therefore your statistics become a self fulfilling prophesy as I stated before.
Looking at say a 50/50 chance of success in the UCL qualifying competition and saying it’s too risky to invest in a squad capable of reasonably qualifying as the odds aren’t in our favour, you increase your chances of failure and then quite simply you’ll be looking at similar odds the next season.
However as I argued at the time, we should have looked at investment over a number of seasons. At that time being domestic champions was a given. Under the “champions route” we should reasonably have qualified two out of four seasons, dropped into the UEL for one season and maybe failed completely in one season.
That’s what I proposed at the time, that scenario could be costed and managed. In all likely hood, with the proper attitude and ambition we could do better than forecast.
Elite sport is about excellence and the policies the Board put forward should support a positive, ambitious and winning attitude.
The 50/50 risk analysis in my opinion wasn’t only wrong as it didn’t take into account the many factors in Celtic’s favour and the factors that Celtic could directly influence.
It was also wrong in principle, a risk averse strategy to an organisation in the business of competing for Trophies and Competition qualification is a self defeating strategy.
That was the reason I thought the 50/50 argument was incorrect at the time and that point has been firmed up and I would suggest proven with hindsight.
Hail Hail
Brendan Rodgers played nine qualifiers and won eight. That seems a much more reasonable statistical norm than 50/50.
For clarity I get that the actuality was a 2 in 3 rather that a 1 in 2 the 50/50 gives us.
The fact remains the 50/50 that was the basis of the risk averse approach is wrong.
Hail Hail
The beautiful peoples game ruined by money well illustrated in this clip
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/59527230
It’s the Daily Mail so take it as you will…https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-10298443/Celtic-complain-SFA-referee-chiefs-comments-Furuhashi-Parkhead-officials.html
7 folk still to get their Superbru predictions in- Gscbhoy, Gutenberg, Raplochbus, Angel Gabriel, Bhoy form the Village, Knoxy and The Lurkin Tim. Plus Tirconnel who has left out the St. Johnstone game from his.
Everything Celtic
@aboutceltic
·
12h
Liel Abada played seven matches as a striker last season for Maccabi Petah Tikva.
In those matches he scored four goals.
Get it done Ange. Mikey & James out wide…
HH
Put Mikey way out wide , so as he’s sitting in the south stand
Re the mythical £40 million ,for league winners automatically qualifying , full thread available on etims twitter
Moravcik67
@Moravcik67_
·
Bert Kassies’ site is where all the hard work gets done. I just filter it down to the Scottish part. Always the best place to go for UEFA stuff.
———————
12. Speaking of 11th, that’s where we finished last season. Despite reports to the contrary, it didn’t (and still doesn’t) guarantee this seaons league winner an automatic place in next year’s CL.
We still need to wait and see who wins the CL this season before we’ll know.
13. Of the teams still in the CL, the following are on course to qualify for next seasons CL via thier league – Ajax, Bayern, Liverpool, Man City, Real Madrid, Atlético, Salzburg, Sporting, PSG, Inter, Chelsea
The following are not – Juventus, Villarreal, Benfica, Lille, Man Utd
14. If this seaon’s CL winner also qualifies for next season’s CL via thier league then Scotland’s champion will get the last automatic CL group place next year.
If this season’s CL winner doesn’t qualify via their league then the Scottish champion will have to qualify.
15. It’s more likely than not that we get the spot. It’s just not guaranteed – as much as people keep saying that it is.
Finally, I’m a bit surprised that more isn’t being made in Scotland of whoever takes our cup winner place being guaranteed group stage football next season.
Been saying that about Abada for ages..Looks a better striker than winger.
Hate to curse the boy,but could be a similar striker,to the Reptile,Novo.
StTams
Can you explain the last part from Finally?
I’ve been away from the blog for a few days and decided to start reading this thread as a catch up. I got to the 10th post and couldn’t believe the nasty, vicious comment by WISHAW TIM.
I don’t even know who he was getting at and I don’t want to know, but to come on to CQN and call a fellow poster and Celtic supporter ‘a bag of shite’ is just horrible.
Needless to say I gave up at that point. Awful.
Celtic finally taking on the media and the head of refereeing. I am always suspicious of the scots whose first names are surnames; Crawford, Wallace, Finlay, Murray, Ross etc etc
Scotland is a second world country.
TOM MCLAUGHLIN on 11TH DECEMBER 2021 10:17 AM
I hope you don`t mean you are giving up contributing? Your posts are very often informative and always worthy of a read.
I accept that , statistically,there will be some `unpleasant` posters. They mean very little to me. Posters like yourself, on the other hand, are always worthy of a read.
Keep on keeping on and hope that the poor souls recover from whatever mental illness affects them.
SFTB @ the Board’s disposal
The amount of effort you put in to do us down / keep us at the back of the CL bus / provide excuses for the hopeless performance of the board is incredible — angels on pinheads is to much like reality as you dig ever deeper to support the board’s inaction / lack of a plan / bumbling along / amateur hour strategy in the face of mounting evidence that the more you put in the luckier you get.
We have recent evidence that supporting a good manager with a good squad and active player recruitment means CL qualification.
We have recent evidence that not supporting a good manager even with a good squad through a shambolic player recruitment effort will bring forward CL qualification failure.
Your cod stats analysis would suggest that you are an English teacher mugging up on numbers.
Your St Als debating club writing style would suggest that you are a Maths teacher mugging up on how to win arguments.
Confused — totally.
Taking the debate forward — not a chance.
Just a lot of pro-board ramblings.
The CL results so far this season show that a plan / improving squad / desire will take you a long way.
When we have all three in place we will see us take a huge step forward.
AP is currently a one man army trying to get things moving.
He needs support.
Sorry not StTams Bognorbhoy.
TOM MCLAUGHLIN on 11TH DECEMBER 2021 10:17 AM
Surely your curiosity must have been piqued by such a remark and got you wondering how things had reached such a pass?
Perhaps if you were to trouble yourself to read back through the last few threads you might understand the context in which such language has been used.
Things are not always as they first appear.
Dessybhoy
================
Hope this doesn’t copy like a dogs dinner , but I think number 9 is relevant , but using no expert 😜😜
Thread
See new Tweets
Conversation
Moravcik67
@Moravcik67_
·
13h
6. Further back, and having a great season, is Serbia. They’re now only 2.225pts behind Scotland – that’s the equivalent of 4 wins and a draw.
They finished last season 6.625pts behind Scotland, so they’re closing in. They have 1 of the Belgrade clubs in both the EL and ECL.
Moravcik67
@Moravcik67_
·
13h
7. And that’s your battle for the 9th-11th places.
Further back, Ukraine, Belgium and Switzerland can no longer catch Scotland. There aren’t enough points available to them.
Even further back Turkey, Greece, Denmark and the
Czech Republic could theoretically catch Scotland.
Moravcik67
@Moravcik67_
·
13h
8. But it would require all remaining teams from those countries to go so deep into tournaments, that it’s not really worth considering.
Turkey, for example, could only catch Scotland if Galatasaray wins the EL and Fenerbahce the ECL – with both winning every game along the way.
Moravcik67
@Moravcik67_
·
13h
9. So barring something completely bonkers happening, Scotland will finish top 11.
Ideally, though, we want to grab 9th. Why? Because that’s the point that we should be guaranteed 3 group stage places.
Champion – CL
Runner-up – CL or EL
Cup Winner – EL or ECL
That’s huge.
Moravcik67
@Moravcik67_
·
13h
10. At 10th in the rankings we’re guaranteed 2 group places (Champion in the CL, Cup Winner in the EL/ECL). Our runner-up would start in QR2 of the CL – 1 win = group stage of some sort.
Still good odds of having 3 teams in the group stages, but 3 guaranteed would be better.
Moravcik67
@Moravcik67_
·
13h
Thread
See new Tweets
Conversation
Moravcik67
@Moravcik67_
·
13h
11. At 11th, we only get 1 guaranteed group place – our cup-winner in the EL/ECL.
Our champion would need to wait on who wins the CL. Our runner-up would again start in QR2 of the CL, and need just one win to play in one of the group.
Still far better than it’s been, though.
Moravcik67
@Moravcik67_
·
13h
12. Speaking of 11th, that’s where we finished last season. Despite reports to the contrary, it didn’t (and still doesn’t) guarantee this seaons league winner an automatic place in next year’s CL.
We still need to wait and see who wins the CL this season before we’ll know.
Moravcik67
@Moravcik67_
·
13h
13. Of the teams still in the CL, the following are on course to qualify for next seasons CL via thier league – Ajax, Bayern, Liverpool, Man City, Real Madrid, Atlético, Salzburg, Sporting, PSG, Inter, Chelsea
The following are not – Juventus, Villarreal, Benfica, Lille, Man Utd
Moravcik67
@Moravcik67_
·
13h
14. If this seaon’s CL winner also qualifies for next season’s CL via thier league then Scotland’s champion will get the last automatic CL group place next year.
If this season’s CL winner doesn’t qualify via their league then the Scottish champion will have to qualify.
Moravcik67
@Moravcik67_
·
13h
15. It’s more likely than not that we get the spot. It’s just not guaranteed – as much as people keep saying that it is.
Finally, I’m a bit surprised that more isn’t being made in Scotland of whoever takes our cup winner place being guaranteed group stage football next season.
Moravcik67
@Moravcik67_
·
13h
16. Regardless of who wins the league or cup, it’s a huge chance for another Scottish club to play group stage football, and to generate some much need money. But it seems to have gone unnoticed.
And that’s enough UEFA gibberish, I think.
/END
but using no expert = but saying that I’m no expert 😜😁
Interesting stats coming out RE the new variant, vaccinations and death rates
https://dailyexpose.uk/2021/11/27/only-the-fully-vaccinated-should-fear-the-new-variant
TOM McLaughlin
Would not wish to see you leave – we don’t often see eye to eye, nevertheless I always read & respect your input.
There are two-sides to every story – the context in the case you highlight is important.
There is persistent vitriolic abuser involved in addition to the poster you have mentioned. I never like to see foul and abusive language on here, I condemn it, but we must be even-handed in any condemnation.
HOT SMOKED and JHB
Thanks for your responses. I did not mean I was giving up on CQN or ceasing to contribute. I was in good spirits as I started reading but when I saw that comment I just gave up in disgust.
MADMITCH @ 10:33 AM,
Agreed, you have to wonder why some go to such convoluted ends to argue the Board were right to sit on their hands while other Clubs our size across Europe were putting investment, strategies and working hard on processes that would get them competing in the UCL.
I get why Big Pedro done it, he didn’t have the wherewithal to develop and implement such processes and had no intention of hiring people who could.
He could let Celtic trundle along with the old firm business model and get his kicks from dilettante moneyball.
The renumeration committee and his KPI’s were loaded to ensure he had a massive salary and bonus whatever happened.
The last ten seasons are as much about how Celtic shouldn’t be run as they are about missed opportunities.
Hail Hail
A wee respectful note to suggest you get yourself sorted with whatever vaccine dose you’re due/overdue. Things are expected to deteriorate quite quickly in the coming fortnight. Now’s the time to act.
In that light, it might seem facile, dare I say glib, to note that there might be certain directors of a certain recently formed football club who, looking at the league table, might be content with the prospect of a suspension of league football.
talk of ‘B’ team striker Dawson stepping up into 1st team squad for tomorrow.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-10298443/Celtic-complain-SFA-referee-chiefs-comments-Furuhashi-Parkhead-officials.html?ito=native_share_article-bottom
At last …..
Chairbhoy- I only have time for a quick and possibly final response. So many people cannot get by “common sense” thinking when it comes to probability.
I get the statistical analysis and its always going to be the case in football that you are going to get beat at some point, even by lesser teams. Brendan Rodgers played nine qualifiers and won eight. That seems a much more reasonable statistical norm than 50/50.
I am glad that you later acknowledged that Brendan’s recor is not 9 out of 10 but 2 out of 3. That suggests that some part of the concept has been grasped. My last attempt to explain this would be to invoke the concept of Expected defeats (similar to the concept of expected goals as used by Celtic by Numbers). My figures allow for Celtic to be rated as favourites in perhaps 3 or 4 out of the 4 ties but that does not change the odds against a successful 4 round qualifying tie. We may be heavy favourites in round 1, just as we are when we play Ross county or Livingston in the SPFL but defeat by them is far from unheard of. We are further favoured however by the fact it is usually a 2 leg tie so you can repair “off day” damage, such as Lincoln Red Imps and (almost) Artmedia. Nevertheless if we had been drawn against Livi in Europe, based on this season’s results, we would have lost 1:0 on aggregate. Against favourite status, which Celtic have, you have to factor against and weight travel distance effects (Kazakhstan, Tel Aviv), dodgy pitches (Livi), extreme heat (israel, SE Europe) and stage of season ( we meet some clubs who are already well into their season).
Also we got defeated by arguably the best team we played in qualifying during BR’s era, under the poorest preparation.
AEK may have been the best team BR had faced in qualifying in his short time with us, but it was just a 3rd round qualifier and we still would ahve had to beat another opponent if we had beat them. Previously BR (and other managers had only 3 rounds to face to get to Group Stage but he failed in his first attempt to negotiate 4. And AEK were no great shakes. First of all, they had Barkas in goal, who never impressed in either tie and they lost all 6 CL Group Ties, when they got there, with a minius 11 goal difference. Brendan go out without facing another 4 match qualifying programme.
You have shown no dependent link between each qualifying round and have not properly expounded your conclusions.
I have obviously failed to convince though your adjustment of 9/10 to 2/3 sugests something is getting home. The interdependence, I think, you have already accepted, in that you acknowlwdge that, if you don’t win Q1 you don’t get a shot at Q2 and if you don’t win Q2 etc;
It does not matter, in terms of CL qualification (as opposed to Europa consolation prize), which round you go out in, the effect is the same- you are denied CL Group Stage. So the odds on a successful qualifying campaign are the odds you face when embarking on those 4 matches and they remain the same odds for a suucessful campaign as you go through each stage. It is counter intuitive but true. The fact that you successfully negotiate Hurdle 1 has not altered the odds on you successfully negotiating all 4 hurdles. This is what people fail to grasp.
The odds on qulifying in a single tie may be odds on in your favour but the cumulative odds on triumphing in 2 and in 3 and in 4 will be longer with each round you must face. You know a string of 8 victories is unusually good form, so in 8 matches, at least one defeat and possibly one defeat and a draw may be expected , particularly if you acknwledge you are facing teams of the calibre of Hearts, Hibs amd Sevco, or better, when you get by round 1.
The bookies will, of course, give uou short odds on the final qualifying match, if we get there, but they are acepting bets on that tie only. If asked to take a bet on Celtic triumphing in rounds1,2, 3 and 4 they will offer longer odds than they would give you for this final tie, even though it may be the hardest the team will face. That is why I am involving the concept of Expected defeats rate, to help in the understanding of this. If I have failed, I acknowledge the weakness of my words and examples to drive home this accepted statistical fact.
I am no great Statistician. I had it as a subject to First year university level only but I was , in that time, given a mark of 11 out of 10 by the Australian Professor, for coming up with a unique answer to a question he had posed. There will be a couple of dozen on htis site more able to eplain this than me, but I appreciate how hard it is for people to overcome common sense statistical fallacies (see my next ansswer to Clunks)
Madmitch
Your cod stats analysis would suggest that you are an English teacher mugging up on numbers.
Your St Als debating club writing style would suggest that you are a Maths teacher mugging up on how to win arguments.
Absolutely wonderful hedging of bets there. Two more goes, to add to your previous and still you remain hopelesly wrong.
I will state again you cannot win an argument or deate by traducing the occupation of the counter argument proponent. You do not refute an argument by merely calling it names. If you wan’t to demonstrate how “cod” my statistics are, I’ll have my listening ears on. But facts and logic are not your strong point are they. Assertion takes the place of reasoning and name calling takes the place of exposition.
The St. Al’s jibes are pitiful. Believe me, with your adnissions of having a Rugby playing background, I doubt you would win a “I’m more proletarian than you” contest, not even with 4 Yorkshireman tactics.
You and chairbhoy are happy to characterise my view as talking down, restricting ambition and generally, being a stone in the road to the Promised Land we;d otherwise be on if we listened to your unpractised advice.
I don’t accept the characterisation and, at the risk of protesting too much, I would define myself as generally an optimist who wants Celtic to be as good as they can be. I was an early advocate of buying Toney but I did so because I thought he would be a good buy, even at that rich price, and I beleived he would help is even in a CL qualifying campaign. But I never believed that a Toney or a Dembele or an Edouard guarantees us qualification or evn that two of them would.
Your beliefs that ambition and growth brings inevitable gains is and will remain an untested hypothesis because nobody is going to invest hard cash in testing that view out on a biggish club in a peripheral league. Everon , Newcastle and even Spurs have had huge ambitious spends to try to become CL teams and gain the monies that can secure their debts raised in trying to get there. There was no shortage of funded “ambition” but still, despite marginal gains, their succes is that they have noot yet been relegated. That is the real world. Successes are hard to come by. No matter how big or ambitious historical you imagine yourself to be, there are other hungry clubs out there who do not fear you and will take you on and sometines, beat you.
Competitive sport humbles you. No matter how good you are, and I flukily earned a Scottish Cup medal in my sport, you cannot imagine yourself to be better than your scores. There is no hiding place for false inflated status or hubris. You are as good as your scores and performance show you to be. There is no such thing as too big to be relegated.
That opinion, I am calling Realism. I love Cltic but have no green tinted specs about where we are or where we can be.
I have said hundreds of times we can be better and we can improve our lot. But teling you that we’ll never do this by monetary investment or Harry Redknapp buying approaches is Realism nt Pessimism.
I am not pro-Board nor related to them or any other jibe you advance in lieu of an arfument.
I am not pessimist, defeatist or back of the bus; I want Celtic to be as good and as competitive as they can be.
I do not lack ambition but I realise that I am not the one to operationalise that ambition in a senior football context as I lack the skills, knowledge and face validity to convince anyone of this I suspect that not everyone gere is free of such delusions.
So, enter the debate and make your points and show your evidence. It may not be as emotionally satisfying and ego-pampering as your current approach but you stand a higher chance of convincing people, which is what debate should be about, even at St. Al’s.
I see that the pernicious anti-women and anti-children lobby group Stonewall are trying to insert themselves into the Celtic family – get lost says I. Callum should really know better !!!
https://twitter.com/WeeScotUnicorn/status/1469617294816989188?s=20
Clunks at 11.02
I only had a cursory look through the article you listed as it was just infuraiating me by its lack of objectivity and rigour.
If you are going to calculate the risk of Covid or the newest variant, Omicron, on vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups you need to provide a context and just the numbers of each,
As a starting point, you have to acknowledge that the vaccinated account for almost 80% (2 dses) of the UK population or almost 88% (1 dose). If vaccination offers no protections, they should be appearing in the at-risk group of atching or actually caught the Omicron virus in these percentages. The unvaccinated should be appearing at less than 20% or 12% as a consequence.
You then have to build in the fact that the age of the vaccinated population is significantly higher than the unvaxxed group, which includes children not yet needing to be vaccinated or suitable to be vaccinated as wel as the scared of the vaccine group and the opposed to the vaccie group. Being younger this groups hould see fewer serious outcomes of a contraction.
Nowhere in this literature do I see an acknowledgement of those basic facts. What you are left with is the unsurprising conclusion that Big Dogs are more likely to hit their heads on a low bridge than small dogs are, unless they junp very high deliberately to risk this.
It is hard to believe that this pseudo-scientific approach is eo wrong other than on purpose because it is underestimating and insulting the intelligence of its readership
proffesor brian cox explains the mysteries of future european qualification and statistical probability of there never was “a rangers” it is collective delusionalism.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1469291742876905473
BognorBhoy
Thanks, nonsense that a Cup win is greater than a League placing and which Cup I would imagine it would be the Scottish rather than the League Cup?
DESSYBHOY on 11TH DECEMBER 2021 1:08 PM
BognorBhoy
Thanks, nonsense that a Cup win is greater than a League placing and which Cup I would imagine it would be the Scottish rather than the League Cup?
———–
if it goes to plan,
league winner goes directly into champions league cup
league runner up goes into play off round for champions league (dropping into Europa League group)
scottish cup winner goes directly into Europa league group (thats brilliant for scotland) a great incetive, what i assume will still be in place, if the cup winners are already higher qualified by being 1st or 2nf in the league, then the next placed in league will take their place in the Europa league.
4th placed in league – Europa League play off, dropping into cONFERENCE league group.
5TH PLACED – future EuropaConference play off.
Its complicated but good.
I dont mind us being in the Conference League after christmas, I do hope we progress, any win is desired.
We are along way from being a CL team, would be financially nice to be in it, but wathcing the indebted billionaires trample all over us really doesnt float my boat anymore.
we are at the level we are at.
FAC
@FACKilltheBill
·
Dec 10
Video 7 is yet another familiar tale that many will recognise. A fan arrested in a Friday dawn raid, held until the Tuesday, routinely harassed by the police and banned from the football, leading to poor mental health and eventually the person opting to move away from Scotland.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1469270139673759747
SFtBs @ 12:18 PM,
Yes, it would seem to me 11/10 is a statistical anomaly – they do happen, striving for success, a creative approach, out of the norm application.
It’s why successful Clubs like Ajax have Smart, engaged football men running their Club and not statisticans:)
When I started my “A” Level maths we went to Oxford to hear a lecture on standard deviation, I learned why three buses turn up at once when you have had a long wait at a bus stop and also that I had little time for that sort of maths (I did enjoy maths though)
I had been enjoying my “A” level physics a lot more so decided to leave school and go to College to study Electronics.
We studied many mathematical concepts; things like Boolean logic/algebra and Applied Mathematics to a reasonable level.
Of course most of that is gone now but I’m sure there is enough grey matter there to work out a basic statistical model, if it’s presented and explained properly.
Claudio Ranieri’s Leicester City were 1000/1 to win the EPL at the beginning of the 2015 season but the odds dropped dramatically in 2016.
Neither statistics nor bookies always get it right.
Now I get that when the Celtic Board look at the statistical analysis before a ball is kicked in the UCL qualifiers that the odds are what they are.
However that does not mean they don’t change through the competition, as Leicester City showed, they can change dramatically.
Let’s compare the Scottish Cup to UCL qualifiers.
The odds in each case was different, only one team can win the Scottish Cup but several teams can qualify from the UCL, so several winners in a competition that is “loaded” in favour of the seeded team.
Also the summer transfer window is open during this time, we can actively strengthen or sell as necessary to maximise our chances of qualifying. Again, this is not factored into your statistical analysis.
And you will remember season after season domestic trophy after domestic trophy Celtic went on an incredible run and didn’t lose a cup tie for four season – knocking the simplistic statistics out the park.
Also the Europa League safety net should be factored in.
Yes we saw Mr Whyte make a classic mistake at Rangers by assuming this safety net was there if Rangers failed to qualify for Europe in 2011.
It lead to Rangers administration. Though many factors would lead to liquidation.
Yet let’s face it, Celtic weren’t in that situation, they were neither living on borrowed time nor borrowed money.
We would have simply being reinvesting our gains back into the team – as the Board had promised us anyway.
So as we had funds available and as we’ve agreed those funds spent could change the odds, we have yet another reason not to set the statistics in stone.
Hail Hail