Curtail confidence, there remains a lot to do


I have no intention of encouraging anyone to place a bet, but if you think Celtic will be crowned champions in five weeks’ time, you can make a 40% return on your money.  Bookies do not give a 40% return on capital within five weeks often, so what’s going on?

The confidence you feel after Sunday is based on some cognitive biases.  We have bossed Newco for 2.5 out of 3 games this season and there is an expectation that this trend will continue.

Also, five of Newco’s remaining seven games are away from home, whereas we have only two away games left.  On average, more points are dropped away than at home, so there’s encouragement there too.

Add in your knowledge that the Celtic squad are getting fitter and better; Callum McGregor and Reo Hatate are back, Cameron Carter-Vickers is playing, and we look as good as we have all season, and you can see the plan coming together.  So what gives with the bookies?

Bookies love trends.  They know two facts about them: punters back them to continue and they always end.  Lots happened on Sunday, but we should focus on the fact that at halftime, Newco ended a 2.5 game trend and started to cause Celtic problems.

Clement’s joy at a home draw was based on his belief that he – like you and me – knows what to expect from Celtic, and he will travel to Celtic Park with a plan he has confidence in.

Celtic are not the only side with players coming back from injury.  Sima will be fully fit the next time these teams meet; Yilmaz will return to the left back slot and Matondo will be asked to continue how he ended on Sunday.

This will allow Newco to play to their strengths as a counter-attacking side, as they did successfully away to Betis and Benfica.  If you can take a win and a draw from those games, you are entitled to be confident at Celtic Park.

Brendan Rodgers needs a plan, for that plan.  He will be preparing for it already, but you cannot just decide how a game will progress; chance, form and (of course) rogue decisions can derail the best of us.  We have a lot to do to win that game.

This leaves us looking at the away fixtures.  Celtic will visit Kilmarnock, where we have lost twice this season, compounded by a home draw.  Difficult though this game will be, I expect a win.  We are also likely to go to Paisley, scene of two comfortable wins this season.

Newco lost at Celtic Park in December, drew at Pittodrie a month earlier and lost the opening game of the season at Kilmarnock.  As well as their best European performances being away from home, they have a better domestic record away than at home.

These sentiments are why the bookies don’t particularly fancy our chances.  There remains a lot to do.

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  1. Happy Wednesday all.



    Great to see all the snippets on here about Ron Bacardi. One of the originals and admired by many. Nice words by Big Jimmy and others.



    What’s the weather like in Dundee? Raining bottles and lighters like Ibrox at the weekend?

  2. bigrailroadblues on

    Bhoyjoebelfast from last blog.


    Cheers old chap! The 4 intrepid Tims shall enjoy a last day of revelry in good old Donegal.

  3. KT on Talksport, said Arteta hasn’t spoke to him since he went to Spain, really bad management

  4. Sevco are odds on and best Celtic price to win the league is 29/20, have i misread this article?

  5. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    All fair points Paul.



    This will come down to who drops points first plus the outcome of the match against Sevco at Celtic Park.



    In that regard – if Sevco don’t drop points and don’t lose at Celtic Park …. they will win the league.



    Our margin of error is narrower.




    One factor informing some of the recent more bullish attitudes among Celtic fans – which, IMHO, always merits a mention ….



    …… this bullishness is a response to the endless “Sevco are just wonderful” messaging we get constantly from all angles.



    We’ve got problems – some of which will not be fixed this season – but we are improving.



    I get the impression many Celtic fans recognise this reality.



    Accurately evaluating Sevco’s capabilities and deficiencies is trickier …. and involves wading through the interminable nonsense mentioned above.



    Bring it on

  6. Morning all from a Bram Stoker like night in TX.




    Lucky we’re not in Dundee or the game would definitely be off.

  7. TEXASTIM on 10TH APRIL 2024 12:24 PM


    Morning all from a Bram Stoker like night in TX.










    Lucky we’re not in Dundee or the game would definitely be off.



    We would have played it last midweek, when it should have been played…..

  8. !!BADA BING!! on 10TH APRIL 2024 12:26 PM


    We would have played it last midweek, when it should have been played…..




    Exactly Bada.


    They will moan and shout if the game os off again today with fewer windows to play it, but they supported it not being played on the first available midweek, so they could be fresh to play us.



    Feck them! Reckon Dundee will give them a game too!



    However, I’m also confident that the officials will assist them to victory as they have done all season.



    We’re up against it to win this title. Still think Brendan has what it takes to get us over the line though.

  9. In the remaining games we (Celt8c /Rangers) have to play, how many points have we (Celtic/Rangers )dropped already to these teams ?

  10. If only we could predict which “trends” will continue and which will “end”.



    But football matches are not coin-tosses and they do not revert to the mean.



    These odds reflect some well worn industry judgements but mostly it reflects the number of huns who have bet the Big Hoose on thems winning.



    Sensible folk should still see this as a wide open race to be won by the braver more skilful outfit, able to rise above any ref fixes.

  11. MCPHAIL BHOY on 10TH APRIL 2024 11:26 AM


    HOT SMOKED on 10TH APRIL 2024 11:18 AM



    Any news on the 11 am pitch inspection yet?






    Bhoyjoebelfast 11.01



    Eh? 😂



    I was the same :-))




    Apparently Dundee and the SPFL are happy with the state of the Dens Park pitch but Rangers* are concerned that because of how wet the pitch is already, not including any further rain, that Silva could drown when he is shot by that same sniper who was in Ibrox on Sunday.




    Silva asked if game is on👇








    Hail Hail

  12. GlassTwoThirdsFull on

    “you can see the plan coming together”




    Only if the “plan” was to weaken the team, produce a lower points total and create a “title race” with our old firm partners!

  13. Rain getting a wee bit heavier here in Arbroath so, unless Sevco would like it otherwise, I would expect the game to be postponed.

  14. Another inspection at 3.30….and it’s raining, covers are on the worst areas of the pitch

  15. !!BADA BING!! on 10TH APRIL 2024 12:15 PM


    Dens Park passed the first pitch inspection the penalty spot seems to be holding up




    Another inspection at 3:30. I wonder if they’ve covered up the pitch after the inspection this morning. I think it’s better if it goes ahead tonight. Dundee need the points but might not need them as much by the time the new date occurs. Would they play tomorrow or would it be next midweek?

  16. !!BADA BING!! on 10TH APRIL 2024 12:53 PM


    Another inspection at 3.30….and it’s raining, covers are on the worst areas of the pitch





  17. Prestonpans bhoys on




    The rain will probably run off the covers and flood the rest of the pitch!

  18. What is the Starz on

    Bookies odds are currently


    Celtic 6/5.


    £100 gets a return of £220


    That’s a profit of 120 %



    Rangers are 4/6


    £100 gets a return of £166.66


    That’s a profit of 66%



    Where is the 40%…


    I hope you aren’t calculating big Petes bonus

  19. Our Board must be truly remarkable if they have the ability make our players miss chances in games we have dominated but still dropped points. They must also have the Officials in their collective pocket to ensure we don`t win points that would have us comfortably ahead in the League,

  20. R.I.P. Brian (Ron Bacardi).


    Sadly another top contributor on here has sadly passed. Deepest condolances to all friends and family.



    Although a long long time member here from the early days, I havnt posted much in recent times.


    The chat yesterday re Ron and Blood tests have prompted me to tell my story.



    5 years ago, I was meeting my son at Dublin Airport to travel over to a Celtic match. He was travelling from Galway where he was a student and I from Dundalk. I arrived around 1 hour earlier than Niall so was killing time walking around. It was around 430amso too early for a pint! Anyway I fell and hurt my rips. Thought nothing of it although it was sore but not too bad. Fast foward a couple of days after a two day session and arriving home, my pain seemed to get worse. After a coule of weeks I went to doc who told me that my ribs were badly brusied. While I was there I asked for a blood test. He asked me had I particular reason for asking and I just replied that as I was turning 50 later that year I always said Id start regular bloods (every 6 months). He asked any other reason and I said that maybe as I felt I was getting tired early in evenings but put that down to rising earlier in mornings and going into work much earlier than before (Im self employed).



    Anyway, roll on a few days and he sent me for colonoscopy where many polops were discovered. All were removed except one big bugger on the wall of my gut. After biopsy results the decision was made to remove by surgery a couple of weeks later. The tiredness was caused bythe cancer eating into my blood cells. I had a Bowel resection and remained in hospital for a couple of weeks.


    After 6 months I got the all clear but with regular check ups for 5 years. Im currently in my last year and all is perfect thankfully. My Blood test saved my life. I had NO symptoms apart from the tiredness which wasnt worth talking about.



    Not long after my all clear,Covid attacked the world. As I said earlier Im self employed and in the retail sector. Before my diagnosis and closure of business due to Covid restrictions, I hardly ever left my business let alone take a day off. Since then Iv really started to appreciate everything in life and hop on a plane whenever I get a chance. Ive also travelled over to Celtic Park 9 times already this season with my youngest son (12).



    Sorry for the long boring post but this is so important to me to spread the word.



    Once again Ill stress the importance of regular blood tests. It really saved my life and could on day save yours.



    God bless you all and ofn course HH

  21. Excellent piece Paul, factual and balanced. Probably any poster offering this view would be labelled defeatist.



    A realistic presentation of the facts, form and trends – it happens in horse racing to appraise the contenders and usually a clear favourite is nominated.



    But of course we all know favourites don’t always win, and odds change ‘in running’



    That’s exactly what will happen in this tight race to the title. Probably the biggest odds-change will come after the Celtic Park encounter, as I expect us & them to win the run-up matches.



    No margin for error now in this acid-test.

  22. These end of season encounters can be fraught. Remember the season which culminated with Black Sunday? We had beaten them at Ibrox. The score was 0-2 but it could just as easily have been 4 or 5.


    From that game on we were in trouble. MÒN was part-time through no fault of his own. The players were in holiday mode after the Ibrox result. They even went on a jaunt to Dublin. That should not have happened.


    Contrast that with Helicopter Thursday when wee narky Strachan kept the players’ feet on the ground and delivered the title.

  23. Prestonpans bhoys on




    Those odds from the bookies are probably reflective of the state of officials in this country. If I was a bookie I wouldn’t offer odds on the hun getting a penalty tbh!

  24. I wouldn’t put too much on europa results or performances. It is fundamentally a secondary competition and teams from the top leagues treat it as such. Dortmund in the CL is a different beast to Dortmund in the Europa.



    And as for the Huns coming to CP and sitting in to counter…what else is new ? They’ve done this for ten years.

  25. GREENGRAY1967 on 10TH APRIL 2024 12:59 PM



    R.I.P. Brian (Ron Bacardi).




    Fine essay GG1967 on spreading the word


    We must keep doing that



    Hail Hail

  26. Greengray1967



    Good share and worthy of note for our fellow aging Tims (don’t shoot the messenger).


    They have lowered the age for colonoscopy to 45 in the US and one of our neighbours sons had stage 4 when only 39.



    Take every preventative step you can bhoys (PSA bloods too).

  27. I’ve defended BR on here for most of the season because I didn’t rate the players he was finding himself having to turn to.



    It’s very different now. We won’t see Ralston, Bernabie, Welsh & MJ playing together again.



    With a fully fit squad, I’d expect BR to win the next 6 games.

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