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You are at:»»State of the Club Report, summer 2015

State of the Club Report, summer 2015

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By on CQN BLOG & Comments

Celtic are about to embark on their fourth season as the last remaining Superpower in Scottish football. The old wars were won, while current challenges on the domestic front are accomplished with ease, but many questions remain about the club’s place in the world, what it’s objectives should be and how best to deliver them.

My expectation is that Celtic’s annual accounts, which will be released next month, will show they club washed its face, largely aided by the sale of Fraser Forster, but turnover is likely to be around 35% below the peak figure from season 2012-13, where we progressed to the knock-out stages of the Champions League, selling tickets and merchandise by the ton.

Season ticket sales are down around 10,000 from their peak a decade ago, reflecting the lack of domestic competition, an overhang of the economic climate, and – I expect – a tail off from what was an unsustainable high during the years of regrowth after the long, dark, 90s. The good news is the distress rate appears to have bottomed out. New blood has replaced old in many parts of the stands, as many learn to appreciate The Game for its sporting merit, not simply a means to three points.

We had a terrible start to the Ronny Deila era. We huffed and puffed in Iceland, were torn apart in Poland, but the performance against Legia at Murrayfield was nothing short of a capitulation. From the opening minute of the game we were worse, much worse, than we were in Warsaw.

Results and performances remained disappointing for months as Aberdeen regularly led the league into the new year, but signs of recovery appeared in the Europa League, where we qualified for the knock out stages and put on two credible performances against Inter.

Last autumn Ronny was under pressure. In another era, this could have been overbearing pressure. The change in managers brought a change in tactics, training and personal objectives, which disoriented the club. It also meant that we didn’t have a recruitment strategy in place for the new requirements.

There are many long term strategic threats, but if Celtic ever lose a league again, it’s likely to be when they embark on such an overwhelming technical change. If we do this again, we need to anticipate the shock and compensate accordingly.

Sporting objectives remain clear: win the league every season “forever and ever” and qualify for the Champions League group stages. Having given this some thought, I cannot see the scenario when we will lose the Scottish league title.

A horizon exists in Scottish football, no one can see beyond 10-in-a-row. This season WILL be five-in-a-row, most bookies are offering 1/33, a 3% return on your money, on this outcome. After that the countdown to 10 will grow louder, but 10 is not a real horizon, it just exists because Jock Stein’s ways were eventually copied. He had no mystical touch, only good strategy.

Rangers should never had stopped at 9. The money they had gave them an enormous advantage. Wim Jansen arrived from nowhere (Japan) with half a team signed by Jock Brown. It defied logic how we won that title, but it’s also clear than many at Ibrox had put their tools away before the start of that season. There is a warning here for Celtic. The latter parts of the Martin O’Neill, Gordon Strachan and Neil Lennon eras were all characterised by less innovative signings. More scouting trips to Edinburgh, fewer to Cracow, and the like. When the players, manager or scouts get weary, teams fail.

Achieving Champions League group stage qualification is the most difficult challenge Celtic face. We are clearly a better team than Qarabag, and have considerably more resources, but much of Wednesday night was spent worrying if the goal would come, and about what we would face in Baku. Even if we’re successful, strong unseeded teams will await in our section of the next round draw.

We are more than good enough to win league after league, but we’re not more than good enough to qualify for Champions League after Champions League. This should be Celtic’s objective for the next year – arrive in next summers’ qualifiers with a much better team.

The success of this will depend on Ronny’s ability to turn potential into actual European class players. He can do this, but he’ll need a tail wind. In particular, we have to hope that an earlier, ‘recruit from Edinburgh’ strategy, has not been redeployed in the form of a ‘recruit from Dundee’ one.

There are objective measurements we can point to. We are sound financially, pay our bills when due, have seen off all domestic competitors, will report more than 40,000 season ticket holders, a buoyant retail business and strong commercial partnerships. The stadium looks incredible, whoever conceived of the Celtic Way deserves some credit – but please – finish the job.

Copy what we saw at Murrayfield, put turnstiles at the perimeter of the footprint, build fan zones, build a café outside the ground. 30 years from now people will not sit in stadiums like Celtic Park, they will have better facilities, start planning for them now.

As anyone will tell you, football is a results business, and results over the next four weeks will have an enormous bearing on what state we feel the club is in. Defeat will not mean we are on the wrong path any more than victories mean we are on the right path, but it’s the game we play, so ‘play on’.

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  1. BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS on

    NEGANON

     

     

    If it’s any consolation to you,I largely agree with your points.

     

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    Keep telling it like you see it. Few are as negative as you. But many can see an absence of raiment on the emperor.

  2. Syd Negakev on

    WEEMINGER on 31ST JULY 2015 2:25 PM

     

    Why do people have such a downer on the catering? Under the Celtic End Block 140 we have a chippy that seems to do a decent fish supper, a Southern Fried Chicken place, some kind of upmarket pie stall.

     

     

    What is it people are looking for?

     

     

    ===============================================================

     

     

    Well perhaps some would fancy:

     

     

    Isle of Gigha halibut with Atlantic King crab, cauliflower couscous, finger lime and ras el hanout infused broth’, ‘Fillet of sea bass with shellfish and sea vegetable minestrone, coco de paimpol, fennel and lovage’, and ‘Ravioli of lobster, langoustine and salmon poached in a light bisque with oscietra caviar and sorrel velouté’.

  3. weeminger on

    NegAnon2 on 31st July 2015 2:17 pm

     

     

    I think without that sense of weekly pressure we struggle to lift our game unless it’s against either a major team or an English one.

     

     

    I think there’s a very fine line with the budget we have between good enough for SPL and good enough for Europe. It’s also worth remembering that lots of the ‘small’ teams we play against are from bigger countries and when you’ve got a bigger population the chances of their being local players that are top quality are better – ie if 0.1% of 19yr olds are world class players there’ll be more to choose from in a more populated country. I think that’s something that’s quite often overlooked.

  5. starry plough on

    weeron

     

     

    Wasn’t my intention, I thought who’s in pot three and thought ole Bert will know:))

     

     

    We need a good run like Basel had in Europe to push us into pot three, my question is though when you look at 1 and 2, is there any chance of us ever being in there again? I have to admit to being bored by the CL since a long time, I only ever watch Celtic games and the occasionally Basel game or biggie that catches my eye…

  7. weeminger on

    Syd Negakev on 31st July 2015 2:30 pm

     

     

    I get kilos of Gigha Halibut for free most summers. Local knowledge *taps nose*

  9. wycombebhoy on

    The new blog looks excellent Paul67 but pity no type of ‘like’ or ‘dislike’ button for posts :-(

  11. NegAnon2 on

    Weeron. Wailing at the 5 way agreement? I am surprised that a lot more of us are not wailing and gnashing our teeth at what was done by our club. If you are sort of suggesting it will be boring without the Hun, well that’s your choice. As I have repeatedly (and undoubtedly boringly) pointed out when they return and the honest mistakes are flying fast and we are once again told we are mentally ill, we can repent in leisure at the thought that we had a chance to deal with it once and for all but the board felt bigotry was good for business.

     

     

    Hotellthespartim. We have been paying out dividends since Fergus gave us the share issue. They are contractually bound based on the preference shares sold.

     

     

    Battered it’s a pity I couldn’t attend cqn11 due to work and family commitments. Perhaps next time. Mainstream opinion requires a bogeyman and I am happy to oblige. We know Celtic were engaged with the 5 way agreement and celtics silence for me equates to being complicit. At the very least we should have made our position very clear.

  15. NegAnon2 on

    Incidentally I apologise for some of the grammer etc. bloody ipad spellchecker thing.

  16. weeminger on

    petec on 31st July 2015 2:40 pm

     

     

    I come and go from Battlefield 4 on the Xbox One, but I’m not in any clans or anything like that. I don’t have the time to commit to such activities. I generally only game late at night.

  18. Go tell the Spartim on

    hotelthespartim far better moniker.

     

    Neganon, id ask you for the actual figures but itd waste a vast amount of time with others decrying the figure you supplied, life is too short

  19. oneofthe70percent on

    The idea of developing all these scottish players falls down,most are technically rubbish,and are just not good enough for Champions league,the biggest example is the close to 5 million wasted on our captain,just think what we could have got from europe for that fee,maybe a player who could pass,who would not get sent off for being a daft wee thug in europe. Since the late 90,s all our best signings have been non scots,we are now a very average team who even struggled last season to win a one horse league.We no longer play the Celtic way of attacking football even against some of the pub side in the rubbish SPFL.

  22. weeron on

    Starry Plough….

     

    Totally agree re the UCL. Lots of meaningless, boring games. There is the occasional gem. And Celtic, of course. Hopefully, someone in power will eventually see the need to change.

     

     

    Neganon2…….

     

    I should know better than get into this, but…..

     

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    My point was that we are the inevitable champions for ever. In the medium to long term, that cannot be good for us.

     

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    So if deidco really die, then fair enough.

     

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    What then?

  23. NegAnon2 on

    Go tell the spartim. I can’t remeber the figures but they are in the accounts and unarguable. As I said Celtic are contractually obliged to pay them as they were part of the share issue. However you may remember the proposal of a share div reinvestment scheme a few years back. Whereby the suggestion was that diva be reinvested into the club to bolster the transfer budget etc?

     

     

    The board was against it.,for obvious reasons. I’m sure DD needs his pref div.

  25. NegAnon2 on

    Weeron do you know the really funny thing. All this guff about us being champions forever is guff. Celtics lack of ambition will see us spiral down to the level of the next best in Scotland (in this case currently Aberdeen). It’s already started to happen.

  27. IGC on

    CELTIC MINDED PUB – EDINBURGH

     

     

    Hi All

     

    I will be in Edinburgh for the Qarabag away leg next Wednesday. Is anyone clued up on any pubs to watch the game in where there is minimal risk when celebrating Celtic’s two goals?

     

     

    The nearer to Lothian Road/Haymarket the better.

     

     

    (T’internet mentions Malones but this is on an old forum)

  29. NegAnon2 on

    Starry my memory isn’t what it used to be :) however I do remember reading it so either it was leaked or it’s a fake one!

  30. Green Oak Tree on

    Big Nan………… Keep meaning to ask you if you new an old fella fae the klondyke called Mick Mcgroarty….

  31. petec on

    weeminger,

     

     

    Coolio, we are playing on the PC Counterstrike. I dinnae ken how you can play a fps on a console after going back and forth, well I do really. Back in the day we played 4 players on the best ever game on the Nintendo Superlative 64. Usually before we went out clubbing in Cheers, Dumbarton (if you can call that clubbing ;)).

     

     

    Maximum respect for giving me links to all the Essential mixes and much more over the time you have been on CQN.

     

     

    Hail Hail

  32. starry plough on

    NegAnon2

     

     

    I’m sure we would have seen it on here had it been leaked, it’s still dubbed up in Peter’s secret drawer in his office:)) Next to the plans for the underground tunnel to the Vatican:))

     

     

    HH fae the valley

  33. embramike says "the Huns are Deid" on

    IGC

     

    .

     

    Malones in Forrest Road is still your best bet for Celtic games

  34. Go tell the Spartim on

    Can anyone tell me, conservatively, how much have we paid out in dividends?

     

     

    For me there are two glaring issues, we’re run as a PLC and should be run as a not for profit organisation, secondly our scouting is pretty poor, we seem to deliberately avoid leagues and country’s were ability is first and foremost and chase athletes, our record in buying “cheap” strikers is alarming, if we’re going to be a feeder club then we need to do something to attract a better quality of attacker, we dont seem to pay out for more strikers than we do for anyone else in the team and thats one of the major problems.

  35. weeron on

    Starry Plough,

     

    Thanks a lot. Will be in Scotland next week for a 6 week stay. By far the longest visit since I emigrated. Might get some pictures. If the sun shines…….

  37. BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS on

    PAUL67

     

    .

     

    ‘We are more than good enough to win league after league, but we’re not more than good enough to qualify for Champions League after Champions League. This should be Celtic’s objective for the next year – arrive in next summers’ qualifiers with a much better team.’

     

     

    Do you agree that the reason that the above is true is because we continue to sell our best players?

     

    .

     

    At what point does a strategy to improve the team and the bank balance revert to simply the latter?

     

    .

     

    I have no problem with the plan of buying good young players,selling them on,signing replacements. But when it becomes the be all and end all,I most certainly do.

     

    .

     

    The strategy SHOULD be to ratchet up a gear every time,not back.

     

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    Buy in for £2m,sell for £8m. Next move should be a £4m player we hope to sell for £15m.

     

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    Not start again at the bottom.

     

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    I have no wish to support a team of bottom feeders. I was brought up to support a team of heroes.

  40. petec on

    weeminger,

     

     

    Coolio, we are playing on the PC Counterstrike. I dinnae ken how you can play a fps on a console after going back and forth, well I do really. Back in the day we played 4 players on the best ever game on the Nintendo(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOsvuv5xMhg) Superlative 64. Usually before we went out clubbing in Cheers, Dumbarton (if you can call that clubbing ;)).

     

     

    Maximum respect for giving me links to all the Essential mixes and much more over the time you have been on CQN.

     

     

    Hail Hail(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkH2TXvRCLs)

     

     

    The Last Post was awaiting moderation.

     

     

    Apologies if it all arrives at the same Time!!!!

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