It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Craig Whyte would not have expected Champions League football when he worked on the deal to buy Rangers last spring, but, by his own admission, income from the Europa League group stage was in the budget.
Winning the league came as a surprise late in the process and may have fuelled some summer transfer bids but income was about to fall well below expectations. Ally McCoist won only one game in four cup competitions, against Arbroath, season ticket sales didn’t bounce and with no serious income streams open, Rangers were set for a seriously low income season.
In addition, the injury to Steven Naismith robbed Rangers of what I understand would have been a £5m sale in January.
People have tried to assert that Whyte’s plan for Rangers was to liquidate the company all along, this is clearly not the case. Rangers were moribund while the First Tier Tribunal (FTT) was yet to report but Whyte planned to run the company, without reverting to administration until and perhaps beyond then.
As well as having to deal with the income shocks resulting from multiple on-field failures, Rangers were hit with an expenditure shock. The FTT was delayed from November to January. If it had proceeded as planned in November it would have reported in January. The delay was crucial, Rangers were going to spend a lot more money before the verdict was announced.
If the verdict arrived as expected in January, and Rangers won, it was game on. They would have been in a position to borrow like any other club and could have raised fresh share capital. There would have been no administration. This was the preferred outcome, Whyte would have emerged with his reputation intact and with a valuable football franchise for the outlay of exactly £1.
If they lost, Whyte could have presented a fait-accompli to the world.
He could have explained to the Rangers support that the total tax liability was “likely to be around £75m” and that there was no point putting fresh investment into a black hole, which was inevitably going to lead to liquidation – all for misdemeanours that occurred before his time. The support would have been distressed at the death of their history, but, crucially, they would not have blamed Whyte, whose reputation would still be intact.
He would immediately have applied for the 10 day grace period to consider appointing an administrator and used that time to tell the SPL and SFA that he could re-emerge with Newco FC within days and allow the league programme to complete as normal. He had security over the stadium, would be in a position to re-employ the players and would be able to honour financial commitments to other clubs, while securing the television and sponsorship contracts.
Public sympathy would have been behind him, Sir David Murray would have carried the blame (perhaps correctly) and I believe only Celtic would have voted against him. Newco would have been back in the SPL and, if the Daily Record’s reporting of Whyte’s thoughts on penalties are anything to go by, he expected to be docked a comfortable 25 points.
HMRC forcing Rangers into administration this month created enormous problems. Administrators Duff and Phelps are now in control and opened the club’s finances up to scrutiny.
As soon as it became evident that he securitised season ticket money from future years, three days after buying the club, placing the money into his own bank account, not that of the football club, Craig Whyte’s methods were subject to derision and outright disgust from many angles, most importantly from the Rangers support.
As things stand, Whyte cannot slip away. He has to stand with Ticketus, who will hold a security on Ibrox through one of Whyte’s companies, and he stands to gain an enormous amount of money for a year’s hard work. Ticketus are also in for the long haul, they have coughed up over £20m and will need a sizeable commercial return.
Many observers have noted that this has not progressed as a normal administration. It’s not a normal administration. The secured creditors (Craig Whyte and Ticketus) need to sell a lot of tickets beyond administration, either as Rangers, if they are successful in the FTT, or as Newco, if they lose the FTT. Selling a lot of tickets is a really tough challenge right now and will be made considerably more difficult if there are swingeing cuts made to the club staff and infrastructure now. Their interests are considerably best served by keeping Rangers as buoyant as possible.
Even if they manage to feed enough cash to the administrators to keep Rangers playing football until the verdict is delivered, the opportunity to present the league with a fait-accompli has gone. Everyone expects Rangers to fold and will have been busy working on a contingency plan.
Any goodwill that Whyte hoped to harvest has also gone, he is seen as a pariah, without friends within the game, in the political world, the media or the Rangers support. When he looks to build a consensus, there will be no advocates for his position. Quite the opposite, people want rid of him.
The on-going police enquiry and his interesting relationships with the Insolvency Service and HMRC will only cloud matters further. For all the bluster on these subjects, no one has been able to explain to me any illegal activities, in fact, most of the illegal activity he has been accused of are either perfectly legal or simply did not take place as described, but there is enough potential in this mix for many years of civil legal challenge, if not more serious issues.
Whyte and Ticketus now have decisions to make on how much extra skin to invest. Ticketus are in the game for a lot of money already and will be keen to protect their cash. It remains to be seen how much cash Whyte has in the client account at Collyer Bristow, but it’s clear that between them, Ticketus and Whyte were prepared to guarantee the administrators full wages and costs for the club for February.
The fact that the tap has been turned on 100% for the last two weeks suggests they have enough cash to run at a lower percentage for a while yet. Duff and Phelps will know how much money is available and will have an expected date for the verdict. It would be enormously bad judgement if they exhausted cash reserves before the verdict arrived.
As long as Ticketus investors hold their nerve, and the police don’t spike the process, Rangers will survive until the verdict. If they lose the verdict, and all expectations are that they will, what are we looking at?
As I said above, Whyte’s chance of presenting a fait-accompli has gone. He would need to go for a prepack liquidation but there are likely to be legal challenges to him making off with the assets of Rangers. At best, this would delay him for anything between weeks and years. Any police involvement would make matters even more difficult. If a negative verdict is delivered anytime soon, Rangers will cease.
Even if this happens, Whyte will still owe Ticketus a lot of money and will try to phoenix as a Newco. He will have the stadium and will be in pole position to apply for membership to the SPL or Scottish Football League.
A route back into the SPL in these circumstances would be difficult to achieve. The SPL board have the authority to accept a club into the league but I hear it is likely that, due to the importance of the matter, they would refer the decision to a vote of the entire league. Back in October I thought the fait-accompli was certain to be voted into the SPL, now I can’t see a Newco being voted in.
You would expect an application into the Scottish Football League to be accepted but there may be a rival bid. The ‘Blue Knights’ bid would not include Ibrox but have a number of options. They could ask to rent Hampden or Firhill, or could adopt a struggling lower league club, like Clyde. These notions are likely to be progressed but establishing a new club, without players or a stadium, would be an enormous challenge.
All of this would play out against a great deal of uncertainty. Whyte’s ability to sell tickets to Rangers fans must be in doubt. If a rival club wanted back into Ibrox in the future they would need to give the ultimate floating charge holder – Ticketus – the same kind of return Whyte has committed to. There is also the possibility of a lot more to come out about the old regime at Rangers, some of whom are behind the Blue Knights bid.
Even if someone gets a phoenix off the ground at Ibrox, keeping it alive will be difficult. The cost of running football games there every second week is considerable. Doing so, while repaying Ticketus, and competing against lower league (or SPL) opposition, will cut any football budget to levels not known in 30 years.
For now, everyone connected with Rangers needs to make confident noises but even if they die, their ghost is already in enormous peril.
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the agenda is set, no matter the media outlet, we must save ranger/ or let newco walk back into the spl with a nuckle slap, or scottish football is dead! if a newco is allowed into the spl scottish football is dead.
not one person in the media is even thinking about a future free of rangers at least for a while. my opinions is simple, if you go bust the games up, if you want your club to enter the league they need to start from the bottom and work through the leagues
scottish football is in the gutter at an all time low because ranger overspending over the last 30 years encouraged other clubs to follow suit and fall on their bottoms.
the t.v companies only wanted old firm games and we set our league up to accommodate their wish, so forth came the 7 old firm games a season
but ranger newco starting from the bottom could be a good thing for scottish football because we could set everything up for the betterment of scottish football;
no team allowed to have more than 22 established first team players
PL of 18, last european place up for grabs in play off + relegation play offs x1 place, automtic relegation x 2
1st division of 12, promotion + play offs + relegation playoffs
2nd division of 12, promotion +play offs + relegation playoffs
regional leagues thereafter, promotion +play offs + relegation playoffs
no cup replays in either cup
t.v. money equally split between teams in PL
reduced price at gates for fans
standing areas
summer football
thomas lamb @yossarian67 · Open
@Pmacgiollabhain u being sarcastic phil :P , this crest stuff cant be true the perma rage will be mindboggling ……
Phil MacGiollaBhain @Pmacgiollabhain Close
@yossarian67 No sarcasm. Easy to deny. I’m running down the story. I KNOW that one sports desk wanted to run it in January. Maybe legal..
prestonpans bhoys,
Thats what the DR are going with tomorrow. Bye Bye MR Traynor thereafter.
Auldheid,
its all part of the due process you champion :o)
rc wonder what colur his little duck is.
THE EXILED TIM on 1 March, 2012 at 21:23 said:
Celtic are having to sit on their hands until the FTT rules but it will be impossible to keep the lid on this after that. And its not just Celtic supporters asking questions.
seventyxseven
It’s not really a problem.
Started with me asking why many gave up the drink for Lent.
That was all :>)
James Forrest at 20.47
Don’t think I have reponded to you so far, but I do regularly read what you have to say and enjoy reading your point of view. This was a particularly fine post, so well done to you. Does what it says on the tin.
Also feel inclined to note that I have not seen anything from Ed U of late. If you happen to be lurking Ed, I can understand why you might not feel like commenting on things at the moment. I always liked to discuss things with you and I think you contribute a lot to the debates here. Hope all is well with you away from the football and look forward to seeing you posting before too long.
hail hail,
ggh
So jabba’s got proof?? Spit it fatso!!
Auldheid,
Unless HMRC or the police do their duty then I see the focus moving onto Murray and not Teddy Bear FC . That is our only hope that they maintain an interest no footballing body will do us any favours.
HH
Fantastic article and posts this week.
However what would the thoughts be of ex director who now owns team at top of 2nd division (Cowdenbeath) beingin on deal to aid quick return to SPL say in one year.
This would supply three year audited accounts for European football license at the expense of one season out of top flight?
Could this be a possibility for more rules and legal minded posters and Celts?
garygillespieshamstring:
First mate, thank you for your kind words. Secondly, I wholeheartedly agree with you on EdwardUrsus. He was a credit to his club, his supporters and himself. He was articulate, passionate and intelligent and definitely an asset to this site.
If you’re around fella, we’d all love to hear from you.
i must confess i do not read the daily record or listen to phone ins, but his apparent attack on Celtic FC is hardly surprising
Celtic hold the moral high ground,and will play a huge part in the developing story after the FTT, and the laptop loyal don’t like it at all , they are desperate to drag us into the mix
f__k them!
PL and Celtic are correct to maintain a ‘dignified’ silence
HH
I can’t agree with the sympathetic view to those losing their jobs. I have wanted to see this mob dead and buried for as long as I was old enough to think for myself, so, by default, I have always wanted to see the day they close forever, and EVERYONE loses their job. They are vile and nobody should be working in such an organisation anyway.
Sorry, but that’s the way it is.
THE EXILED TIM on 1 March, 2012 at 21:42 said
I gave up drink for Lent once, then went on a three day bonanza after it. Never did it again but it does explain why the first game after Lent has so many bhoys drunk :)
Paul 67 and James Forrest.
Two excellent articles.
Neil canamalar Lennon hunskelper extrordinaire on 1 March, 2012 at 21:39 said:
Had I known back then that karma was going to do the job I would not have gone to St Mary’s :)
Remember this? We might need another one!
Dear Peter,
1 We the undersigned welcome the approach Celtic have made to the SFA re disciplinary matters as we believe it reflects the mood of Celtic supporters everywhere and as expressed at the latest Open Meeting of supporter groups.
2. As a result of evidence accumulated during this football season 2009/10, the Celtic support in all forms, who are major contributors to the financial* well being of the game in Scotland, have lost confidence in the ability of the Scottish Football Association (SFA) to administer professional football in Scotland in manner that reflects their duty of care to all aspects of the game and everyone who takes part in it.
3. That loss of confidence has increased significantly as a result of the SFA’s response to Celtic from Gordon Smith justifying the status quo on disciplinary matters relating to appeals and the use of the Review Panel, with an interpretation of FIFA rules that appears misleading, self serving and inaccurate.
4. Those represented at the meeting wanted changes in Disciplinary Procedures that made them more
• Transparent,
• Accountable and
• Independent of the referees.
We believe this feeling permeates throughout the Celtic support and we note that the English FA operate a system with a Regulatory Commission that meets the above criteria without breaking FIFA rules, real or imaginary, and urge and encourage Celtic to pursue the implementation of a system on similar or improved lines in Scotland.
5. The Celtic support, for the good of the game, are determined that procedures change and are prepared to use our position as major financial contributors to Scottish Football to bring about what are reasonable, fair and just changes. We also ask Celtic to convey our concerns to the appropriate authorities as they see fit viz:
•
o Football Authority in Scotland (The SFA)
•
o
o And Europe (UEFA)
•
o
o Civil authority (on the issue of proper governance of football.)
o
And ask if the Review of Scottish Football being conducted by Henry McLeish can look into the wider matter of transparency and accountability at the SFA as whole.
Signed by :
1/ Celtic Supporters Association
2/ Celtic Trust
3/ The Junglebhoys
4/North American Federation of Celtic Supporters Clubs
* Note: As a club, we are 1 member of the SFA (i.e. 2.5% share of voice), however as supporters with average gates of 55,000+ then we represent approx 33% of the 170,000 CUSTOMERS who pay to watch Scottish Football.
Having 2.5% customer dissatisfaction is a problem,33% is a disaster waiting to happen.
Always spine tingling to hear these, but somehow better tonight.
Glass of red, Paul Brennan’s article and James Forrests recent post, with these three belters in the background – the best 30 minutes of the year so far….
http://youtu.be/Ee52kItzfIw
http://youtu.be/qHVHJ8W3H30
http://youtu.be/NLZRWNdGCUc
Enjoy.
TJ
Rangers Media: The question asked was, “Where is all this talk about Liquidation coming from?”
How about this for a reply.
Its just a nasty rumour. Apparently we have no money and we owe about £15 million in tax, some c*** has sold our next three years season tickets as well as our catering contract, our sole income will be from the sale of Kirk Broadfoot and some macaroon bars. Nothing to worry about.
I added the asterisks.
if a newco work throught the ranks, then every team in every division in scottish football benefits from this and spl membership will never again be dictated to based on t.v money from 4 games a season, its not worth it
i would love to see a strong celtic, aberdeen, hibs, dundee united, even hearts and if needs be rangers making up a competitive league and i honestly think television viewing would increase because the league would be more interesting
i also think we in scotland should have 3 points for a win, 2 point for a score drew and 1 point for a no score drew
James Forrest is The Emperor of Ice Cream on 1 March, 2012 at 20:47 said:
James, you certainly do have a knack of capturing the mood of the time, of your fellow Celtic supporters.
I’ve felt some sympathy for friends who support Rangers, but as you have pointed out the condemnation of the rancid side of their support is absent.
They have indeed brought this on themselves.
As i said earlier, let the institution that is Rangers Football Club(in Administration)
BURN
Very well said.
Celt55 : I would anticpate more cash being forthcoming from the sale of the very last of the macaroon bars than will be raised from sale of Kirk Broadfoot.
In fact, a hauf chewed bit of the spearmint chewing gum might also raise more cash.
hail hail,
ggh
I was just thinking how quiet it has been the week the BANG!
This article appears. Fantastic stuff Mr 67.
We could even end up with two new Rangers’. That would be amazing. I mean two rangers, which would mean their biggest game would be against each other.
I want a ticket for that.
seventyxseven….,
That would be an ecumenical question
wee question..
was gordon smith whilst in his role as a licensed agent party to any underhand contracts with rankers and players of whom he was representing>
just askin like
HH
P67 – a really excellent summary & article. Kudos once again!
James Forrest – a fine follow-up to P67’s excellent lead article. Kudos also!
Shouldnt the SFA-SPL be insisting ranglers pay the other clubs that are owed?
Or does admin not allow that?
James Forrest is The Emperor of Ice Cream
“Like a lot of you, what concerns me now are the social repercussions. It’s a bad time to be walking about on your own, dressed in Hoops”
Without the blow off valve at Ibrox where they can group as one swamp thing they will turn on those they hate for no more reason than their religion or national/ancestral identity.
Its the nature of the beast
One thing i have noticed about this whole debacle is whenever i speak to somebody about football and they tell me they support rangers i just laugh, similarly in the pub talking to my mates about football we can no longer hold a serious conversation about rangers it just evolves into fits of laughter. They are a joke, an absolute joke. If i were an orc id be praying the club goes bust to put me out my misery. Celtic are a proper football club and business, they are a complete and utter disgrace to both.
Stephbhoy 21.38
Some excellent stuff in there, among all the jelly and ice cream or probably after, once all the dust and flatulence has settled we really do have a blank canvas and the potential to start again. Do we have the people in charge with enough vision?
prestonpans bhoys
Another reason I asked about giving up the drink, when I lived in scotland, I in the main lived where there wasn’t many Catholic people, I knew many due to supporting Celtic, and I lived in Ireland for 10 years, where many did give up the drink, many didn’t, they chose to give up other things.
I now live in Spain, a fiercly Catholic country, and I have yet to come across anyone giving up the drink.
I was just being inquisitive I suppose :>)
“Surely the suave billionaire did not sell off the famous club crest, design and copyright? No I refuse to believe that one
—
Should the new crest read
Ready Again
Ready Steddy Go
Ready Break
Ready and Out
Gary G
Dont you dare slag the magnificent macaroon bar from little Ireland. (Coatbridge)
Auldheid..,
Remember it well, like yesterday, it wa the begining of the new age, and we were there
Hail Hail
However I think we might have asked for a wee bit too much
4. Those represented at the meeting wanted changes in Disciplinary Procedures that made them more
• Transparent,
• Biasd towards Celtic for a change
• Accountable and
• Independent of the referees.
:oD))))
Istephbhoy on 1 March, 2012 at 21:48 said:
I agree that stronger teams will help improve the game and it’s prospects, but I’m not keen on the 2 points for a score draw. You’ll end up with teams who have score completely parking the bus wihe even more determination than before, in the knowledge that even if they concede the draw, it’s almost as good as a win.
I see where you’re coming from, but I don’t think it will encourage teams to be more attack minded, just more tactical.
Rico
Working in a large office which comprises of fans from Hertz, Hibs, Dundee Utd, St Johnstone, Dunfermline, Raith. Not one and I mean not one, has any sympathy for them and they think Newco should start from the bottom of the SFL.
Even the Stuttgart fan thinks they are a bunch of huns, irony……..
A big telly didnae work in Manchester and they wrecked the place and tried to murder a cop live on CCTV
What do you think is gonna happen when they are forced to watch and listen as 7000(?) Celtic supporters inside We’rebroke have a party as they die?
There will be trouble at the game on 25th.
We’ll get the blame.
bamboo
The clubs who are due money from the hun will get it via the spl at the end of the season, the hun will get their dues less what they owe, simple really :>)
Hartz are a different matter I believe, I think they will have to join the Q like the rest, I stand to be corrected on that.