It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Craig Whyte would not have expected Champions League football when he worked on the deal to buy Rangers last spring, but, by his own admission, income from the Europa League group stage was in the budget.
Winning the league came as a surprise late in the process and may have fuelled some summer transfer bids but income was about to fall well below expectations. Ally McCoist won only one game in four cup competitions, against Arbroath, season ticket sales didn’t bounce and with no serious income streams open, Rangers were set for a seriously low income season.
In addition, the injury to Steven Naismith robbed Rangers of what I understand would have been a £5m sale in January.
People have tried to assert that Whyte’s plan for Rangers was to liquidate the company all along, this is clearly not the case. Rangers were moribund while the First Tier Tribunal (FTT) was yet to report but Whyte planned to run the company, without reverting to administration until and perhaps beyond then.
As well as having to deal with the income shocks resulting from multiple on-field failures, Rangers were hit with an expenditure shock. The FTT was delayed from November to January. If it had proceeded as planned in November it would have reported in January. The delay was crucial, Rangers were going to spend a lot more money before the verdict was announced.
If the verdict arrived as expected in January, and Rangers won, it was game on. They would have been in a position to borrow like any other club and could have raised fresh share capital. There would have been no administration. This was the preferred outcome, Whyte would have emerged with his reputation intact and with a valuable football franchise for the outlay of exactly £1.
If they lost, Whyte could have presented a fait-accompli to the world.
He could have explained to the Rangers support that the total tax liability was “likely to be around £75m” and that there was no point putting fresh investment into a black hole, which was inevitably going to lead to liquidation – all for misdemeanours that occurred before his time. The support would have been distressed at the death of their history, but, crucially, they would not have blamed Whyte, whose reputation would still be intact.
He would immediately have applied for the 10 day grace period to consider appointing an administrator and used that time to tell the SPL and SFA that he could re-emerge with Newco FC within days and allow the league programme to complete as normal. He had security over the stadium, would be in a position to re-employ the players and would be able to honour financial commitments to other clubs, while securing the television and sponsorship contracts.
Public sympathy would have been behind him, Sir David Murray would have carried the blame (perhaps correctly) and I believe only Celtic would have voted against him. Newco would have been back in the SPL and, if the Daily Record’s reporting of Whyte’s thoughts on penalties are anything to go by, he expected to be docked a comfortable 25 points.
HMRC forcing Rangers into administration this month created enormous problems. Administrators Duff and Phelps are now in control and opened the club’s finances up to scrutiny.
As soon as it became evident that he securitised season ticket money from future years, three days after buying the club, placing the money into his own bank account, not that of the football club, Craig Whyte’s methods were subject to derision and outright disgust from many angles, most importantly from the Rangers support.
As things stand, Whyte cannot slip away. He has to stand with Ticketus, who will hold a security on Ibrox through one of Whyte’s companies, and he stands to gain an enormous amount of money for a year’s hard work. Ticketus are also in for the long haul, they have coughed up over £20m and will need a sizeable commercial return.
Many observers have noted that this has not progressed as a normal administration. It’s not a normal administration. The secured creditors (Craig Whyte and Ticketus) need to sell a lot of tickets beyond administration, either as Rangers, if they are successful in the FTT, or as Newco, if they lose the FTT. Selling a lot of tickets is a really tough challenge right now and will be made considerably more difficult if there are swingeing cuts made to the club staff and infrastructure now. Their interests are considerably best served by keeping Rangers as buoyant as possible.
Even if they manage to feed enough cash to the administrators to keep Rangers playing football until the verdict is delivered, the opportunity to present the league with a fait-accompli has gone. Everyone expects Rangers to fold and will have been busy working on a contingency plan.
Any goodwill that Whyte hoped to harvest has also gone, he is seen as a pariah, without friends within the game, in the political world, the media or the Rangers support. When he looks to build a consensus, there will be no advocates for his position. Quite the opposite, people want rid of him.
The on-going police enquiry and his interesting relationships with the Insolvency Service and HMRC will only cloud matters further. For all the bluster on these subjects, no one has been able to explain to me any illegal activities, in fact, most of the illegal activity he has been accused of are either perfectly legal or simply did not take place as described, but there is enough potential in this mix for many years of civil legal challenge, if not more serious issues.
Whyte and Ticketus now have decisions to make on how much extra skin to invest. Ticketus are in the game for a lot of money already and will be keen to protect their cash. It remains to be seen how much cash Whyte has in the client account at Collyer Bristow, but it’s clear that between them, Ticketus and Whyte were prepared to guarantee the administrators full wages and costs for the club for February.
The fact that the tap has been turned on 100% for the last two weeks suggests they have enough cash to run at a lower percentage for a while yet. Duff and Phelps will know how much money is available and will have an expected date for the verdict. It would be enormously bad judgement if they exhausted cash reserves before the verdict arrived.
As long as Ticketus investors hold their nerve, and the police don’t spike the process, Rangers will survive until the verdict. If they lose the verdict, and all expectations are that they will, what are we looking at?
As I said above, Whyte’s chance of presenting a fait-accompli has gone. He would need to go for a prepack liquidation but there are likely to be legal challenges to him making off with the assets of Rangers. At best, this would delay him for anything between weeks and years. Any police involvement would make matters even more difficult. If a negative verdict is delivered anytime soon, Rangers will cease.
Even if this happens, Whyte will still owe Ticketus a lot of money and will try to phoenix as a Newco. He will have the stadium and will be in pole position to apply for membership to the SPL or Scottish Football League.
A route back into the SPL in these circumstances would be difficult to achieve. The SPL board have the authority to accept a club into the league but I hear it is likely that, due to the importance of the matter, they would refer the decision to a vote of the entire league. Back in October I thought the fait-accompli was certain to be voted into the SPL, now I can’t see a Newco being voted in.
You would expect an application into the Scottish Football League to be accepted but there may be a rival bid. The ‘Blue Knights’ bid would not include Ibrox but have a number of options. They could ask to rent Hampden or Firhill, or could adopt a struggling lower league club, like Clyde. These notions are likely to be progressed but establishing a new club, without players or a stadium, would be an enormous challenge.
All of this would play out against a great deal of uncertainty. Whyte’s ability to sell tickets to Rangers fans must be in doubt. If a rival club wanted back into Ibrox in the future they would need to give the ultimate floating charge holder – Ticketus – the same kind of return Whyte has committed to. There is also the possibility of a lot more to come out about the old regime at Rangers, some of whom are behind the Blue Knights bid.
Even if someone gets a phoenix off the ground at Ibrox, keeping it alive will be difficult. The cost of running football games there every second week is considerable. Doing so, while repaying Ticketus, and competing against lower league (or SPL) opposition, will cut any football budget to levels not known in 30 years.
For now, everyone connected with Rangers needs to make confident noises but even if they die, their ghost is already in enormous peril.
945 Comments- Pages:
- «
- 1
- ...
- 16
- 17
- 18
- 19
- 20
- 21
- 22
- 23
- 24
- 25
- »
Lennybhoy…Supporting Neil Lennon and CFC until I die on 1 March, 2012 at 22:51 said:
Is bjmac going up to Aberdeen with you and hamiltontim?
Someone needs to give Ali Dick some happy pills lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol.
Great Blog, one of the best and certainly one of the most historical.
Thanks for the only blog worth reading when it comes to this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fydEr00KRg&feature=endscreen&NR=1
Wheres the link thing?CSC
Larsson and McStay on 1 March, 2012 at 22:46:
She will indeed not have a case my friend. The day they went into administration I was beside myself but the day and mark my words because it will happen, liquidation, you will need to order me a new liver…
Sitting on the fence, I could not split how I will feel the day they are liquidated and how I felt the day I got married, the day my Bhoy was born and the day we stopped ten in a row.
Keep the Faith!
Hail Hail!
a bum………did you order a bum?
HH
Lennybhoy
Of course….the day we stopped the 10 was, like for you, up there with the births of my kids ….probably a wee bit ahead of the wedding day (but don’t tell that to my missus if we all ever meet up for a massive CQN ice cream and jelly party when they die)
Hi Celts, i’m wondering what the Aussietims et al are thinking of the redundancies.
Dead and buried CSC
emusanorphan, yes, really enjoyed penning this one, thanks.
ThisIsTheOne, thanks.
bmcd48, yes, our day has come.
Eyes Wide Open, cheers.
excathedra44, thanks.
Tommy Joad, thanks, Tommy.
Kevtic, cheers :-)
Celtinental, thanks.
TootingTim, thanks.
Larsson and McStay, cheers.
Celtic_First, HMRC wouldn’t scupper that plan in January. They would be a creditor on the old company. He was waiting on the verdict first.
tooheys new, Whyte stood to gain nothing from losing the tax case.
Mullet and Co, aye.
Eurochamps67, thanks.
garygillespieshamstring, there is no guarantee Murray would have liquidated Rangers if they lost the FTT, I don’t reckon he would have.
ItaliaBhoy, it sure is.
Night all….I’m getting too hyper…!!!
Mail back
James Forrest 20:47
Another excellent contribution to CQN. I totally agree that the downfall of RFC has been a team effort, with their own fans leading the way. Over the decades they have developed a bombastic arrogance and a superiority complex laced with hatred and bigotry. When I read thousands of posts (including some from other club forums) its so obvious that their false perception of themselves in Scottish society, has created such a negative and critical reaction against their club. In saying this, I think even the huns are getting blown away with the ill-feeling shown to them in their own country. Hell slap it intae them.
hh
Lets hope we have greeeaaaaaaattttttt news tomorrow bhoys.
Goodnight and God Bless.
Paul67
Excellent lead, good to see it all put into perspective, so much water under the bridge since valentines day, so many cenarios, you laid it out today, Brill.
James Forrest,
A fine post, yet again, perfect follow on from Paul67, respect.
Kojo
Saw you were getting some undeserved pelters earlier in the evening, Keep on smiling pal, your posts on here always bring a smile to the forum and your one of the guys I enjoy to read when I am in lurker mode.
keep it coming and be not deflected from your views. HH
Judgement Friday is upon us
HH
Mike
prestonpans bhoys on 1 March, 2012 at 22:53:
They are going mate but not travelling with me, I’m going on the fast Train as bjmac would say. If you want to contact them e-mail me your moby number and I will send you their moby numbers back: lennybhoycfc@gmail.com
Keep the Faith!
Hail Hail!
67Heaven
Excellent juxtaposition of K Jackson’s inane dribble….
Cultsbhoy
Simple minds.
:-)))))
MWD
Larsson and McStay on 1 March, 2012 at 23:01:
Mum’s the word…lol…:)
Keep the Faith!
Hail Hail!
Paul67 on 1 March, 2012 at 23:03:
Any particular article(s) planned for tomorrow, although all of your articles are interesting…:)
Keep the Faith!
Hail Hail!
Lennybhoy…Supporting Neil Lennon and CFC until I die on 1 March, 2012 at 23:07 said:
I was wondering if he was going up , like me, the day before but obviously not.Will did out his email address from my folder and give him my seat number for a HT chat
MWD
All this unity is…. weird!!
About an hour ago I got a phone call from my mate who works at Central Station. He had just witnessed a train driver colleague talking to Walter in the station. This guy, he said, was one of the huns who were still in denial about everything. Anyway after he spoke to ‘Walt’, my mate asked him what was said. He looked chalk-white and ready to burst into tears, as he said…….. ‘I wish I’d never asked him. He told me that everything I’d read in the papers was true, and that there was worse to come. He also blamed Murray and Whyte for destroying his beloved Rangers’.
….hmmmmm.
European Cup won at the first attempt .
Watched the Scotland Tonight discussion on Rangers. Absolute tosh. Scottish Television did a staged PR exercise on how to save their team. Nothing more nothing less. We need to save the huns to save Dunfermline seemed to be the main theme. As complete waste of viewing time.
Gripping account of the unravelling of the fabric Paul. One of your best ever write ups. There has been a twist in the tail of this snake with cash flow problems after the euro exits but at the same time we should never forget the years and years of failure by Murray and their board to ship off the club to anyone. A white knight from the Urals never came to their rescue and Craig Whyte came onto the scene. He never had the bull by the horns and was covered up by the hype and pomp. The fact that he had been vetoed as a director of any company before becoming their chairman should have beggared belief………………..if you can say that?
Thanks Gordon for the explanation of the six cups in Matt McGinn´s song, Reserve cup champions as well in 1967!! your knowledge is boundless!
Keith Jackson “never believed a word CW ever said” and yet printed every word that CW said even though he never believed it himself.
Who is this guy’s employer and is there no point at which they will decide such stunning lack of honesty and consistency means its time to put him out to pasture.
prestonpans bhoys on 1 March, 2012 at 23:13:
Don’t quote me but think hamiltontim going up tomorrow night. He is going to text me to meet out back at H/T, smoke break, might get a chance to meet you.
Keep the Faith!
Hail Hail!
Cults
You still meeting up with the young fella ?
I haven’t spoken to him for a couple of days.
Ken Wood in a spin yet?
Bully boy Jabba, his bad faith reporting has upset every Celtic supporter in the country and beyond and led to the downfall of the club he’s made a career out of trying to protect for umpteen years. Exactly why does the national public broadcaster employ this man. Has there never been a petition to remove this odious specimen from the airwaves? It’s really depressing that public money lines his pockets. What happened to the rumour he was getting the bullet after that (even by his standards) obnoxious performance with Chico over Nodgate?
Cultsbhoy
Not as weird as me actually knowing you are a Tim ya Hun yae.
:-)))))
MWD
Titles from cheat fc (financial doping fc)
From season. 1995 / 1996 When first of the dodgy contracts started (plural)
Upto 9 subsequent titles could be stripped from financial doping fc
1995/1996
1996/1997
1998/1999
1999/2000
2002/2003
2004/2005
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011 (apparently Ebt still about when MBB came in ?)
16 in a row ?
Davenelli on 1 March, 2012 at 22:37 said:
I’ve been reading this site for a long time now and never before have I felt the need to leave a comment but James Forrest has changed that.
****
Geeza a wee shout where it is so we can read it too please.
Lennybhoy…Supporting Neil Lennon and CFC until I die on 1 March, 2012 at 23:20 said
emailed you via personal address
Rashers
Page 11 top 20.47
@ Rashers Tierney
At the top of page 11. It’s a work of art particularly the paragraphs relating to the Fans.
prestonpans bhoys on 1 March, 2012 at 23:26:
Got it mate and sent you a text.
Keep the Faith!
Hail Hail!
Mouldy67
Who let you oot your cage.
Soon be 17 in a row.
MWD
Celtic Park is a football rave these days.
That Celebration of Celtic was evident at the end of the season when we celebrated just being Celtic, a wonderfull wonderfull thing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25tFG3p474Q
Folk your age, folk older than you, kids younger than you, everybody all of them celebrating Celtic and having a party.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5FBUNCC37g