I read one highly unlikely article yesterday suggesting we were going to sign Alfred Finnbogason AND were still bidding big money for Kevin Doyle ahead of an 11pm tonight signing deadline. It’s hard to be so wrong in so few words, but this one hit the mark.
Alfred is a target but, and this is the key point the newspapers have not picked up on, he is one of four strikers Celtic are seriously considering at the moment. He looks the part, as do the others, I am assured, but the deal has to be right for Celtic to move.
Our strategic plan is to buy players at a comparatively low price, develop them on the Champions League stage, and sell high, in order to be able to build a team capable of competing further in the Champions League.
To do this we need to buy from the right markets, at the correct age and on the right wage. There will be exceptions to this rule. A few weeks shy of his 27th birthday, Dirk Boerrigter is unlikely to appreciate greatly, but teams need experience to tackle the Champions League, as well as some specific skills, so Dirk is here for what he can give today, not to be the next £12m exit.
We will see more business like Wanyama and Hooper. Before Celtic agree a deal for Finnbogason there would need to be a gap between the buy price and the projected valuation IF the player is a success. If this gap doesn’t exist we will do business elsewhere. Sticking to strategy is more important than pursuing a target like some latter-day David “this time we’re really going for it” Murray.
You can also forget about the 11pm deadline tonight. That is only relevant if we need two or more new players to overcome Shakhter Karagandy. If we want to add Finnbogason, or any ONE other player, the deadline for a Wildcard signing is a day before the game, or pretty much when the team leaves Glasgow Airport, so there is no effective deadline tonight. As such, I would be surprised if a deal was concluded today.
Right now, at Lennoxtown and Celtic Park, people are deciding how to invest our money. We have the kind of choices consistent with a well-run club, but while we are a well-run club, we can’t get caught up in the hubris.
We are living through some big changes in our financial model. Revenue from domestic football (season ticket sales-now discounted, Rangers game £42-per-head ticket sales, hospitality sales, commercial income) has fallen, or disappeared completely (I reckon we’re in the region of £9m p.a. down in these areas, we’ll have a better indication when accounts are released later this month). On top of this, the club was running at a loss without Champions League football or significant player sale (£7m for season 2011-12, the last we have accounts for), and as well as some income streams falling, costs have risen.
I heard that one ‘St Mirren’ supporting journo on Radio Scotland on Saturday said with last season’s Champions League income and money from player sales, Celtic have a £40m transfer kitty.
In the name of all that is sacred, nine years after ‘What the Celtic fans want to know is where is all the Seville money?’, the same nonsense is being peddled. As far as some are concerned, we are back where we started on CQN. The first thing you do with your money is pay your bills, including tax… there is no creditor left behind at Celtic. After they are taken care off you can look to invest in footballers.
This year, the underlying loss has been flipped because of player sales and that Champions League income, although not by nearly as much as journos who regard researching accounts before commenting on finance as an unnecessary indulgence, will tell you. Without Champions League income (this season potentially £14m plus any prize money earned), the money from Wanyama alone would not make this a profitable season, even before the spend on our new signings.
The road ahead is clear. Get into the Champions League as often as possible without allowing any individual failure to cause a collapse, sign players who will flourish at that level, sell them for a profit, repeat and reinforce all aspects of strategy with an improved budget.
Over any business period, every penny which comes into the club, has been, and will continue to be, spent. Our money will be invested in footballers who will appreciate in value, and who will give Celtic their best chance of pushing further in the Champions League on a persistent basis. It will not rest in a bank account earning a pittance in interest. The strategy is ambitious and sustainable but not reckless.
A year ago some wondered if Celtic could survive, never mind flourish, without a Rangers-branded club in the league. If successful, this strategy will not only allow the club to flourish, it may even result in higher long-term income than Celtic achieved while locked in an arms race with a former rival, with a corresponding improvement in Champions League achievement.
Is Alfred Finnbogason the man, is he better than the others we’re looking at, good enough to excel in the Champions League? I’ve no idea, but he is just one detail in the wider Celtic strategy.
Stick to plan, Celtic.
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I also think, if we’re following this buy cheap, develop and sell on for a profit strategy, we should limit it to selling no more than one key player at a time. It’s too disruptive at a crucial stage of the season.
Paul67,
I think it’s back to the ole amortisation, and explanation there of, for some……
Stephane Bonnes; now there was a player or is that the ole suspended animation talking? Hmmm………..
Yorkbhoy, if you are about, this is the type of article I was talking about. Eyes are on the ball in Celtic-ville. Others were happy to believe what a pliant media told them. Look where it got them….
We are in Moneyball territory these days it would seem.
I am very comfortable with Celtic’s transfer strategy.
In an ideal world we’d keep the likes of WAnyama and hooper a few years longer but we operate in a difficult market and when the offers come in those guys are playing their part for Celtic by giving us money for Boerigter, or to pay Sammi or to make sure the training facility is kept in grass seed. They might even pay for a few youngsters to make the break through – although I think we need to be doing more work there……
I seethe negatonian lunch-break is over…..hehe
Paul67
Not arguing against the logic of the sell on value…but the wages bit needs also to be looked at.
Getting a player from Ingerlund on high wages (£40k per week Doyle) would also pose problems. No way we would pay it though.So he would need a big pay off from Wolves which Wolves would want us to help pay.
We need to go for the one that Neil thinks is best….we have probably recoupled well over the odds on Wanyama and Wilson so it may be worth pushing the transfer budget out to get the right man. Whose wages may not be as challening.
If only we knew whether he (Alfred) has a buy out clause in his contract…a la Henrik Larsson…who threatened to go on strike if he didn’t get the transfer to Celtic and eventually settled in court in the Netherlands.
I don’t want Celtic to end up with burnt cakes on this. We do need another striker in and one eligible to play in the next round, and one who comes with a guarantee of goals.
Paul I get your article but spending a bit more up front on a transfer fee would not endanger us financially.
To explain – If Derk is a success he’s still young enough to recoup the fee paid and probably even turn a profit.
As for Finnbogason at £5-6 mil, he also if a success would not be a risk in terms of sell on. Just the initial outlay would be more than we are used to paying.
Yes any transfer is a risk but I’d much rather spend a little bit extra on one proven goal scorer than fritter away millions on a number of gambles like Bangura.
Glendalystonsils likes a mr whippy with his lime green jelly
14:01 on
12 August, 2013
I also think, if we’re following this buy cheap, develop and sell on for a profit strategy, we should limit it to selling no more than one key player at a time. It’s too disruptive at a crucial stage of the season.
Good suggestion Glendaly, although unfortunately one can’t keep a player nowadays
against their wishes all you have to do is look @ other Club’s problems as well
Liverpool/Spurs/Man Utd
Also, the greedy Agent’s are always looking for their cut, from said Market
that is the problem. Hooper left because he wants a chance to play for England
& He only had a year left on his contract. As for Vic, well obviously he’ll be on
a higher wage packet & Kelvin, well he left for Family Reasons & Missing living
in England.
Robert tressell
bang on.
Parkheadcumsalford,
I know.
Can’t believe pistol sanctioned the purchase of him…..;)
AULDHEID
I didn’t mention the economy as a whole.
I took the worst case scenario from PAUL67’s leader,which stated a £9m shortfall,and pointed out that,at WORST,there was only £5m missing.
I based it on last years SB sales of 42,000,at a time when the huns were deid,and since when,by all accounts,the economy has picked up.
Apart from commercial/hospitality income,you tell me where the other £4m shortfall arises.
I do not want Celtic to self-combust financially or otherwise. But I am fed up,and so are many of us,of feeding a machine which is rapidly losing its vision.
And its soul.
awe naw
i don`t get it either
our team is not progressing …we are not better ..we are worse…
you can`t build a team when you continually sell your best players ….the very antithesis of team buliding
Where are the Nakamuras of yesteryear?
RobertTressell
14:04 on
12 August, 2013
Yorkbhoy, if you are about, this is the type of article I was talking about. Eyes are on the ball in Celtic-ville. Others were happy to believe what a pliant media told them. Look where it got them….
We are in Moneyball territory these days it would seem.
I am very comfortable with Celtic’s transfer strategy.
In an ideal world we’d keep the likes of WAnyama and hooper a few years longer but we operate in a difficult market and when the offers come in those guys are playing their part for Celtic by giving us money for Boerigter, or to pay Sammi or to make sure the training facility is kept in grass seed. They might even pay for a few youngsters to make the break through – although I think we need to be doing more work there……
Yeah Robert, Thorough Research would be very useful indeed.
What is the point in an improved budget when you still only buy players in the £2m or so bracket? Finnbogason may cost a bit more but he would still be within the wage structure.
It’s all about the money though with us isn’t it? If we are not going to be a little speculative now when will we ever be? We can afford the financial risk on a quality striker.
As far as I am concerned a football club must strive to always be the very best it can be every season, and that means buying the best players you can afford not shopping in Lidl for cheap bargains. Mind you is Iceland any better ;-)
http://www.philmacgiollabhain.ie/follow-follow-the-money/
Is that the sound of a toilet being flushed…
It must be an age thing.
In my lifetime Celtic have always sold good players, bought some duds, bought some crackers
I envy you jammy sods who lived through the Times when we didn’t.
I can agree with some of the points that Paul brings up,but not all.The buy and sell strategy,like everything else in this world is a gamble.Other clubs,EPL included are looking at the way Celtic have been scouring the world and uncovering the occasional diamond.Our market in this field will become much tighter to profit from.I think we are going to have to be much more flexible in the transfer market in years to come.If anyone thinks that Finnbogason is a gamble,proven scorer in a very good league,and International,then what sort of a gamble would you class Balde as?.There are certain players that dont come cheap.A proven striker at a top level is one.
Its not just for the CL that we need to bring in some quality.Every second week the fans who pay their money turn up wanting to be entertained.An endless procession of maybes and wannabees,who have to be given one or two seasons to hopefully hit their potential,then as soon as the fans start to see some quality from them they are sold,is a bit heartbreaking.The overall strategy is sound,but some flexibility is needed.The occasional oven ready guy is required,especially in the most important area of all,striker.
We do have the money for this signing without any of the more hysterical among us reminding us all of what happened to the huns.The scenarios could not be further apart.
But Paul, what about the McGeady money???
;)
HH
…..…………………………………………
That time of year again – fantasy football!
fantasy.premierleague.com
If you played last year, just redo your team for this year and you are able to renew yourself in the CQN league
If you are new, 5 minute registration, set up your team and then use this code to join the league
Code to join this league: 383718-99007
Classic league, at the end of the season, person with the most number of points wins!
Ill try to keep you all updated on CQN, was rubbish at it last year but will improve his year :)
Got around 60 already so far so should be an exciting season
HH
RobertTressell
14:04 on
12 August, 2013
Yorkbhoy, if you are about, this is the type of article I was talking about. Eyes are on the ball in Celtic-ville. Others were happy to believe what a pliant media told them. Look where it got them….
We are in Moneyball territory these days it would seem.
I am very comfortable with Celtic’s transfer strategy.
In an ideal world we’d keep the likes of WAnyama and hooper a few years longer but we operate in a difficult market and when the offers come in those guys are playing their part for Celtic by giving us money for Boerigter, or to pay Sammi or to make sure the training facility is kept in grass seed. They might even pay for a few youngsters to make the break through – although I think we need to be doing more work there……
One should not go out and spend like there is no tomorrow
Money and fools are esly parted
Auldheid
13:53 on
12 August, 2013
Oglach
Define a bums on seat player.
What makes them so?
Do they grow on trees or have they a rarity value that pushes up their price.
=
So you advocate continuing to sign ‘unknowns’ in the hope we are lucky to unearth another Vic. (As far as Hooper goes – we robbed Norwich and PL laughed all the way to the bank – IMO). However If we do find a ‘star’ they are oofski before we know it. Meanwhile our attendances continue to decline. What the boards solution? Continue with the fiscal prudence and watch the attendances continue to decline, knock 100 quid off prices and make out they are doing us a favour!! Or perhaps we sign the occasional ‘name’. I for one do not believe that every single player we sign has to have a resale value. For example If Pirlo (bums on seats type player aged 34) is a free agent having done it all is approached by NL and shows interest in signing at 40k a week on a 2 year deal the board would refuse to sign him as he has no resale value? However they would go out and sign 3 unknowns for 4 million combined on 10 -12k a week on a 3 year deals on a gamble that they can sell 1 at a profit. I know who I would pay my money to see.
Doctor whatfor
Do I fancy a wee pint? Is the Pope etc? I’ll give you a call.
AULDHEID 1353
Sorry to disagree with you again-as you know it rarely happens!
If we shell out £16m-and I think you are playing fast and loose here-on a player who does the business for us,what is our return?
Is it…..
Prize money for SPL?
Prize money for three years CL qualification and a subsequent increase in the hallowed coefficient?
Bums on seats to see a player who excites the fans?
Money back and a wee bit more-even without the above-when we move him on?
Every one of those possibilities is a potential winner.
And virtually all of the ” strikers” we’ve bought from the bargain basement in the last few years weren’t.
Your call.
Easley parted, but this does not mean we should not look into
said transfer market
By not panic buying and doing thorough research I’m sure we
will be able to find good players out there who can bring goals
to our side and be a good acquisition to our beloved Team.
I have some german friends visiting the weekend of the 19th Oct, we are playing Hibs away 3pm kickoff if Sky don’t change it. what are the chances of approx 6 tickets for the game?
HH
BBhoy
“I know who I would pay my money to see.”
Yup.
Celtic
Robert Tressel
I have been on CQN for a few years, but my eyes glaze over when the detailed financial posts are written. I know it’s very important and it does seem that we are in good health money wise. I’m happy there are Celtic fans out there keeping an eye in things to make sure it stays like that..
67
So you are happy that the business model works we get £20m in from £3m outlay but then fail to strengthen team but just keep profits in house
Listen if we hadnt recieved £22m from CL i would be the first to say be careful But we now have opportunity that might not occur for foreseable future
We cant afford to spend £18m every year but we have NOW and if we fail to take it then the board should be seen as neglecting the very thing that made us the £40m this summer The Team!!
Anyway i will repeat we aint spending clubs money we are spending Southampton Norwich and Forest money Simple
Once upon a time there lived a vain Emperor whose only worry in life was to dress up in elegant strategic plans. He changed strategic plans almost every hour and loved to show them off to his people.
Word of the Emperor’s refined habits spread over his kingdom and beyond. Two scoundrels who had heard of the Emperor’s vanity decided to take advantage of it. They introduced themselves at the gates of the palace with a scheme in mind.
“We are two very good strategists and after many years of research we have invented an extraordinary method to weave a fly by night made up on the hoof plan so light and fine that it looks invisible. As a matter of fact it is invisible to anyone who is too stupid and incompetent to appreciate its quality.”
The chief of the guards heard the scoundrel’s strange story and sent for the court chamberlain. The chamberlain notified the prime minister, who ran to the Emperor and disclosed the incredible news. The Emperor’s curiosity got the better of him and he decided to see the two scoundrels.
“Besides being invisible, your Highness, this fly by night made up on the hoof plan will be woven in colors and patterns created especially for you.” The emperor gave the two men a bag of gold coins in exchange for their promise to begin working on the fabric immediately.
“Just tell us what you need to get started and we’ll give it to you.” The two scoundrels asked for a loom, silk, gold thread and then pretended to begin working. The Emperor thought he had spent his money quite well: in addition to getting a new extraordinary suit, he would discover which of his subjects were ignorant and incompetent. A few days later, he called the old and wise prime minister, who was considered by everyone as a man with common sense.
“Go and see how the work is proceeding,” the Emperor told him, “and come back to let me know.”
The prime minister was welcomed by the two scoundrels.
“We’re almost finished, but we need a lot more gold thread. Here, Excellency! Admire the colors, feel the softness!” The old man bent over the loom and tried to see the fabric that was not there. He felt cold sweat on his forehead.
“I can’t see anything,” he thought. “If I see nothing, that means I’m stupid! Or, worse, incompetent!” If the prime minister admitted that he didn’t see anything, he would be discharged from his office.
“What a marvelous fabric, he said then. “I’ll certainly tell the Emperor.” The two scoundrels rubbed their hands gleefully. They had almost made it. More thread was requested to finish the work.
Finally, the Emperor received the announcement that the two strategists had come to take all the measurements needed to sew his new suit.
“Come in,” the Emperor ordered. Even as they bowed, the two scoundrels pretended to be holding large roll of fabric.
“Here it is your Highness, the result of our labour,” the scoundrels said. “We have worked night and day but, at last, the most beautiful fabric in the world is ready for you. Look at the colors and feel how fine it is.” Of course the Emperor did not see any colors and could not feel any fly by night made up on the hoof plan between his fingers. He panicked and felt like fainting. But luckily the throne was right behind him and he sat down. But when he realized that no one could know that he did not see the fabric, he felt better. Nobody could find out he was stupid and incompetent. And the Emperor didn’t know that everybody else around him thought and did the very same thing.
The farce continued as the two scoundrels had foreseen it. Once they had taken the measurements, the two began cutting the air with scissors while sewing with their needles an invisible fly by night made up on the hoof plan.
“Your Highness, you’ll have to take off your strategic plans to try on your new ones.” The two scoundrels draped the new strategic plans on him and then held up a mirror. The Emperor was embarrassed but since none of his bystanders were, he felt relieved.
“Yes, this is a beautiful suit and it looks very good on me,” the Emperor said trying to look comfortable. “You’ve done a fine job.”
“Your Majesty,” the prime minister said, “we have a request for you. The people have found out about this extraordinary fabric and they are anxious to see you in your new suit.” The Emperor was doubtful showing himself naked to the people, but then he abandoned his fears. After all, no one would know about it except the ignorant and the incompetent.
“All right,” he said. “I will grant the people this privilege.” He summoned his carriage and the ceremonial parade was formed. A group of dignitaries walked at the very front of the procession and anxiously scrutinized the faces of the people in the street. All the people had gathered in the main square, pushing and shoving to get a better look. An applause welcomed the regal procession. Everyone wanted to know how stupid or incompetent his or her neighbor was but, as the Emperor passed, a strange murmur rose from the crowd.
Everyone said, loud enough for the others to hear: “Look at the Emperor’s new strategic plans. They’re beautiful!”
“What a marvellous train!”
“And the colors! The colors of that beautiful fabric! I have never seen anything like it in my life!” They all tried to conceal their disappointment at not being able to see the strategic plans, and since nobody was willing to admit his own stupidity and incompetence, they all behaved as the two scoundrels had predicted.
A child, however, who had no important job and could only see things as his eyes showed them to him, went up to the carriage.
“The Emperor is naked,” he said.
“Fool!” his father reprimanded, running after him. “Don’t talk nonsense!” He grabbed his child and took him away. But the boy’s remark, which had been heard by the bystanders, was repeated over and over again until everyone cried:
“The boy is right! The Emperor is naked! It’s true!”
The Emperor realized that the people were right but could not admit to that. He though it better to continue the procession under the illusion that anyone who couldn’t see his strategic plans was either stupid or incompetent. And he stood stiffly on his carriage, while behind him a page held his imaginary mantle.
gherrybhoy57
13:11 on
12 August, 2013
Thanks Paul for a great article. I wish that everyone could see the point you are making. Even if we signed Lionel Messi, there is no guarantee that we would qualify or the CL group stage. All it needs is one bad decision or a bad tackle for that to happen. Look at Bate Borisov!
The club’s nightmare scenario is for us to be burdened with a massive wage bill and no planned income to pay for it, a la oldco.
What massive wage bill?.People come on here trotting out the same old scare stories.We sold Hooper for over £5 million,even if we pay the same for the Iceman,we are not out of pocket.He falls in our wage bracket.Where is this doomsday scenario.We have got plenty of the wage bill this season.By your logic,we can never buy any player in case we do not make the CL.
Then just how ARE we supposed to get there?.
BBhoy
14:24 on
12 August, 2013
I have some german friends visiting the weekend of the 19th Oct, we are playing Hibs away 3pm kickoff if Sky don’t change it. what are the chances of approx 6 tickets for the game?
HH
BBhoy
This will be hard BBhoy, Why? Because Hibs have a database of Hoops
Visa Cards which they charge automatically & Send out to said database
If said match is on Sly, then it’s best to find some watering hole for a few
Jars and save oneself around £28 per ticket
se7en-nail on head.Some posters think if we spend a bit more (when we can now), we will end up like Sevco,scaremongering nonsense.This type of brinkmanship transfer activity could backfire big time.
bada bing
debt fear …its the new amortisation
don’t get how spending money on lots of £1 million rated chris killens and banguras is seen as being financially prudent. 5 x £1 million strikers and 1 x £5 million striker is the same amount of money.
bogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbog
Paul – I don’t disagree with the strategy, especially where we trouser £12M two years after buying a player for less than £1M. If anyone thinks that’s a sign of failure, then they are a bloody idiot!
Unfortunately, this strategy only works where you have decent replacements with the same or better potential than the players you sell on. We knew our best striker and best midfielder were leaving this summer, they had refused to sign the contracts put in front of them many months before. John Park and the rest of the scouting team should have already identified suitable replacements.
In other words, the next Wanyama and Hooper!
We’ve now sold arguably our main CB, with our new signing, Van Dijk out of action with a broken bone in his foot. Right before 180 minutes of football, that is so vital to the board’s operating model. Talk about flying by the seat of your pants?!
I’ve no doubt that if we qualify for the CL group stages, the team we put on the park will be stronger than what is currently available to Lenny. If we don’t qualify, then it will be down to unnecessary gambling by the board and too much disruption to the playing squad.
Perhaps you could spell out the consequences for the club if we don’t qualifying for this year’s CL group stages?
T4
Cast your mind back a few short years, there was no talk of conserving money, it was all about challenging the huns, and to get the league back,and a shot at the CL.
How times have changed, the bored message is getting over to a section of the support, with the help of CQN.
Can’t end up like the huns etc.
We will never end up like the huns, there was never a hope in hell that we would end up like the huns.
Seems to me that quite a few on here would be happy to see us not playing CL football, as long as the balance sheet shows we have a few bob in reserve.
Aye, the balance sheet, sure fire winner so it is.
As an aside, how many of the posters who are saying we should have enough to get past the kazacks, have actually seen them play ???
This mob knocked out Bate Borisov.
BBbhoy@14:24
Hibs are in the habit of selling Hospitality tickets to Celtic Fans and they are reasonably priced at approximately £80 give them a try
matchdayhospitality@hibernianfc.co.uk
For those in the speculate to accumulate camp who believe the champions league is where we belong, can I point out that we weren’t very successful in the CL with a team that had Larsson, Lubo, Sutton, Hartson, Petrov, Lennon, Lambert, etc.
Only Stan would be covered under the “current financial strategy”.
And in clamouring for replacements for Hooper and Wanyama, can I ask, who did they replace? And did they meet with your approval when we signed them or were you underwhelmed.
My opinion is that we are going about our business in the right way. Not every signing has to be a success. One Wanyama for every 5 N’Guemos is worthwhile.