If anyone tells you we are about to bid €7m on a guy who scored fewer league goals than Billy McKay last season, and who was signed for €500k last summer, don’t listen to them. Nonsense like this is 180 degrees away from strategy. Where would such a player’s sell-on value increase to? It’s just not going to happen, nor should it, it would be a vanity purchase, the likes of which old Zsa Zsa himself would consider.
The last season we have figures for (season 2011-12), when we had Europa League football, Celtic lost £7m. Since then three significant things have changed:
We’ve sold Wanyama and Hooper for over £17m (before deductions).
We got back into the Champions League and earned an additional £20m.
Season book sales dropped and this season cost £100 less than before.
Cutting £100 off the ticket price will bring in £4m less than last season. All other things being equal (which they will not be), this would give us an £11m deficit before Champions League income and any trading surplus. In short, to retain equilibrium, we need to reach the Champions League group stage more often than not. Money from Uefa is not so much a bonus, it is necessary to push us into the black.
I know we covered this last week, but £17m for Victor and Gary will not, on its own, equate to £17m for new players. Gary and Victor were both on their first Celtic contracts when they left, neither of which was near the top earning position (although both were offered top earning contracts).
We’re not going to spend £17m on transfers and be able to pay the new players from the money saved by not paying Victor and Gary. Instead, the boost to the football budget from these sales will almost certainly disproportionately increase wages, leaving a lesser amount for transfers (if we sign four players for £2.5m each, we’ll probably have to pay each more than the average of Victor and Gary’s wage).
Knowing where they came from, I reckon Victor and Gary cost approximately a combined total of £1m p.a. in wages, the bulk of which would have gone to Gary. If we bring in four players, each costing multiple millions, they could easily cost us an extra £2m per annum in wages, or £8m over their four year contracts.
In short, there is enough money available to buy several good players, for decent money, on high wages (for Celtic). This is a good, sustainable, place to be, but it is not transfer window nirvana. We have moved from a position of carrying a perpetual loss to being able to afford an increase in football budget without splurging into debt to fund it.
This isn’t a detailed budget analysis, there are lots of other variables (McCourt, Rogne etc off the wages, not Murphy, whose wages were off the books already), non-football budget cost inflation, considerable drop in one-off ticket sales (20k seats for £42 each at Rangers games twice a season) and commercial income from 2011-12, variations in season book sales (I hear they are marginally up on same time last year but still down on 2011-12).
The big challenge for the club is to ensure the playing squad is good enough to qualify for the Champions League group stage, and to compete when there, more often than not, without indulging in casino football every year.
We stick to plan, scout and recruit players within budget and with high potential sell-on values. €7m on a striker from Heerenveen? Better stick it on black.
The Kano Foundation have around 40 bucketeers for their annual drive at Celtic Park on Sunday. They could do with a few more. If you can do your bit, get in touch: contactus@thekanofoundation.com.
Check out the 1254125 Great Scottish Run page. I plan to keep this page updated with progress on the event and other resources. When you sign up, let me know and I’ll promote your donations page.
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You know the ole season has started in earnest when the dots come back.
DBBIA.
Of course im a hun..
But you figured me out straight away. .
79 caps,
As we will Hooper and hopefully not Wilson.
SPC
Yep.
Have we signed anyone yet ?
Its monsoon season in Belfast !!!!!!!!!!!
Gonna need a boat to get home
Where’s this guy doin his medical….? The Vicky…?
My Team:
Forster
Matthews
Lustig
Wilson
Izzy
Forrest
Brown
Ledley
Samaras
Commons
Stokes or
Forster
Matthews
Lustig
Wilson
Izzy
Forrest
Brown
Kayal
Ledley
Rogic
Samaras
Aidy the Tim
No problem.
up_over_goal
13:51 on 30 July, 2013
No Paddy?? :-P
Agree re formation, don’t think Ledley & Mulgrew will both play. Ledley’s only had 30 minutes this season.
Commons will play off Samaras up front, Mulgrew ahead of Ledley on left with Brown/Kayal in the centre. One personnel change from Cliftonville.
up_over_goal
back in the real world it will almost certainly be – something like – this:
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: Forster ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Lustig :::::::::::::: Ambrose ::::::::::::::: Wilson ::::::::::::::: Izaguirre
Forrest ::::::::::::::: Brown ::::::::::::: Kayal :::::::::::::: Samaras
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: Commons ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: Stokes ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
http://www.tictactic.co.uk/
To summarise. Stop the 37 year old Anders Svensson dictating play and job done.
NFL ” A bid came in for Kelvin Wilson and it was way below our value, and we don’t want to sell him, anyway ”
NFL ” Joe Ledley is one for the long term, he’s not for sale “
Best article in a while. Said exactly what I thought but probably didn’t want to hear. It galls me that we have let our best goalscorer go and we aren’t going to replace him with a player of similar quality (in the short term at least). Especially when we have sold arguably our best player alongside him in a megabucks move. However we are where we are & it will greatly enhance our signing prospects if we can get back to the CL land of milk and honey. Let’s hope we are ready for Elfsborg. Keep it tight at the back and hopefully take a lead over to Sweden. HH
Modren Marquee Signings Is RUBBISH..
Remember When The Babbity Sewing Bee Would Salivate Over Such Illustrious Targets….
As David James…..Sol Campbell..
And Jamie (Smiler) Bullard..!
Celtic Are In Far Too Much Of A Hurry…
To Sign Dangerous Derk…….
In A Vain Attempt To Appease Sydney Tim….
He Needs To Have A Strenuous Medical
With No Corners Cut…..
Because ‘Back Injuries’ Are Tricky Things
To Assess ,And Liable To Recur…..
This Undue Haste To Try To Get Him Signed Today….
So He Can Be Registered In Time To Play Agin The Elfs….
Smacks Of ‘Amateurism’….
That Used To Be The Chronic Failing Of The Deidhuns…..
Who Brought In A Whole Succession Of Expensive ‘Crocks’…..
Such As Rozenthal,Kutznetzov…..
And Prodan….
It Will Not Be So Funny….
If The Joke Is On Us….
Can’t see how Ledley or Matthews will start tomorrow night. 30 minutes pre season is too bog a gamble. Mulgrew at least had a couple of games before injury so he will come back.
Zombie Zombie in meltdown – because Dunfermline have a CVA.
DBBIA
Having had the twins La La Ralston’s has not been the same since she came back…..now Lucy Verasammy knows a thing or two about precipitation and significant accumulations of snow!
Steinreignedsupreme – had to look that one up ha ha!
The Exiled Tim – think its a trip to the bar with free wifi then.
Kayal33
That was a low blow!
Malarkey
I’m only going on what Lenny has said. Obviously, I don’t know how fit Mulgrew & ledley are, but it would be silly to put unfit players in the squad, wouldn’t it?
79caps 13:51 on 30 July, 2013
I was sorry to see them both go. I understand your points as well.
But I think we have a team capable of going through these ties.
On Kayal – he’s struggled to recover his form since he was injured playing our former rivals a couple of years back.
But I’m pretty sure when Kayal was available he was keeping Wanyama out of the team before that.
WGS. 1239
Shane Long made his name at Reading,25 in 51 in 2010/11.
However his goals/games ratio at WBA is interesting
19/67
Sign this talisman now!
How about Jürgen Locadia – don’t know how much PSV would want for him but an up and coming target man with an eye for goal.
Up over goal…..than feck your no a coach, Dearieeeeeee meeeeeeee not my team sorry
I see some trolls have been at it again.
Must be a big game coming up.
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: Samaras ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Lustig :::::::::::::: Ambrose ::::::::::::::: Wilson ::::::::::::::: Izaguirre
Forrest ::::::::::::::: Brown ::::::::::::: Kayal :::::::::::::: Boerigtter
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: Commons ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: Stokes ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
BT
@1353
Well, that’s your eggs cancelled. :))
Weefra HH
Would it have been crazy for Southampton to have spent 7m on Victor Wanyama last year; a year after he moved for under 1m?
The Singing Detective Demands The Resignation Of Campbell Ogilvie
I certainly hope we do our due diligence as reoccurring injuries are dangerous things. Look at Mark Wilson, his career for us would have been so much better and he’d have been a far better player has it not been for chronic injuries.
Wee fra.
I thought they where cancelled after the first May bank holiday… ;-)
Provisional squad: Forster, Matthews, Lustig, Mouyokolo, Wilson, Ambrose, Mulgrew, Izaguirre, Rogic, Brown, Ledley, Kayal, Forrest, Balde, Commons, Samaras, Stokes, McGeouch, Zaluska, Watt, Irvine.
Plus any wee surprise that turns up before 11pm!!
Aidy the Tim 14:00 on 30 July, 2013
When ordering grub – best to avoid the ole Callos.
Top Food Tip CSC
Steinreignedsupreme
Hope you’re right. Thanks for boosting my confidence. But …. Celtic 2 Helsingborgs 0 (goalscorers: Hooper, Wanyama).
Offf oot mrs bt coming home from work..
Later bhoys..
79caps
Vic missed the first leg away to Helsinborgs as he was suspended for 2 x yellows picked up in Helsinki away leg.
dontbrattbakkinanger
12:49 on 30 July, 2013
BMCUWP- remind ole Morrissey to take the ‘chute with him when he jumps, or heaven knows he’ll be miserable.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Belter,bud-but I reckon his vertigo might do the ole miserable trick for him.
Brave fella,deserves to meet his target.
Hopefully not at speed,mind….
Steinreignedsupreme – will bear that in mind thanks. Bit of a magical mystery tour when reading menus but managed not to order anything totally horrible :)
BarryBhoy
I think we need at least a 2 goal lead to take to Sweden or I will be concerned but as I have said on here many times before. I am a panicker!!!!
LB
GlassTwoThirdsFull 14:03 on 30 July, 2013
“Would it have been crazy for Southampton to have spent 7m on Victor Wanyama last year; a year after he moved for under 1m”
Aye. It would have been. I don’t remember anyone offering £7m for him last year – clearly the crystal balls were sold out.
Victor wouldn’t have been playing in the CL last season had he gone to say QPR – and it was those performances that raised his value rather than a relegation fight in an over-hyped league.