Reconstruction in the time of near-universal insolvency

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It fell to Elgin City chairman Graham Tatters to call out Hearts chairwoman, Ann Budge:

“We go and put the two teams who are bottom of the league in charge of the reconstruction talks.

“I just feel all of this is being done just to find a way to stop teams going down.

“We’ve lost out on the chance of promotion but when the resolution was put out to end
 the season it was a no-brainer for us.

“I’ve got no problem with Neil Doncaster and the SPFL. They are
 doing what they can and have been fantastic at getting
 information to all the clubs. Someone had to make the decision – there was no point fannying about.”

Tatters moved on from not fannying about to the crux of football’s problem:

“People are scared to say it but we might not be playing until Christmas, or even until they have a vaccine.

“Forget about playing behind closed doors. We have a real problem here. Reconstruction talk is a bit of a joke – it’s a total red herring.”

It is impossible to decide how many teams should occupy each league on a temporary two-year basis (which Budge hopes will give her enough time to avoid relegation) if you do not know how many games it will be possible to play next season, what cash flow there will be in the game or how many professional clubs will remain in business.

If Motherwell and Kilmarnock cannot sell a match ticket until January, and then only for around a dozen home games, will they want the league’s commercial income distributed 14 ways instead of 12?

With so many clubs sitting precariously on the edge of insolvency, do you expect them to vote to reduce their share of the pie?  I think Ann Budge will meet resistance in her plans to reconstruct Scottish football on a temporary basis to allow Hearts to avoid relegation.

Reconstruction is in the wind, but will look different to what many imagine.  Pretty much all of the community clubs, occupying the bottom two leagues in the SPFL can cut their cash burn to near zero and survive, the same is true for some in the Championship, with Alloa  and Arbroath.

The vast majority of the rest will have to go into administration, make relatively high-earners redundant, in order to survive.  How else can Aberdeen get through a £1m per month cash burn?  There will be a Bonfire of the Vanities, from Edinburgh, to Aberdeen, Dundee and, of course, Govan.   The same is true across Europe, most particularly, in the English Championship.

There is an almighty reconstruction ahead, but I don’t think anyone can imagine what it will look like yet.  Dare we hope for the biggest change of all?  I’m not sure.

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283 Comments

  1. FAIRHILL BHOY on 21ST APRIL 2020 10:31 PM

     

    MARSPAPA-look forward to it mate

     

     

     

     

    Bring a flipping brush wi you this time 😉

     

     

     

    AYE….and beer that isnae oota date lol !!!

     

    what did B say when you told him about the photo .

  2. Perry como is my dads favourite and he can still sing like him.

     

    MARSPAPA-remember when you told wee Benny his bhoy was a midget 🕺

  3. Canamalar it looks like OCD obsession on

    TET,

     

    I’ll pick up on one point only, your criticism of the Prof Neil Ferguson from The Imperial College in London produced model, I’ve noticed quite a few deniers home in on this, you need to go back and actually look at it again, the model and resulting number of 500,000 of the 67% of 67M population for herd immunity, was based on no precautions taken 1.1%, that was the cull strategy bojo and yourself favor.

     

    The original lock down figure of 250,000 or 0.55%, this is why the lock down eventually happened but not why it took so long. And in turn why those numbers have not yet materialised. But like the rest of the deniers, you refuse to acknowledge that very important detail and hold up the original number 500,000,as proof he got it wrong, while completely ignoring the modeled conditions that would cause those numbers.

     

     

    Two days after the lock down was implemented, they reassessed lock down figures down from the 250,000 or 0.55% originally published to 20,000 or 0.04% which we are now fast approaching. I suggest when the original numbers were made public there was a lot of panic in the halls of power as they’d been caught rotten and had the original 250,000 with precautions not been advised, we’d likely be following the Swedish strategy, so I for one thank the Prof for making that prediction because I believe he has saved many lives.

     

    We still have the uncertain future that could see that original 250,000 materialise yet, or more. Your figure of 0.37% would result in 0.17M fatalities, while my figure of 3.4% would result in 1.5M.

     

    The reassessed 0.04% would result in 18,000 fatalities but latest figures now show 17,000.

     

     

    So, this we number crunching game tells me first, I need to reassess and check my own figure of 3.4% and remind myself where it came from, as it appears too high, I’m thinking it might be I’ve mixed up the transmission ratio 3.4:1 maybe, I’ll check but it looks wrong and I’ve been wrong before once :), and secondly even at your lower number that you consider is not pandemic proportions includes a lot of avoidable fatalities.

     

     

    A worthwhile exercise and glad I done it.

  4. Canamalar it looks like OCD obsession on

    Oh and TET,

     

    For comparison, the Spanish flu resulted in 228,000 fatalities in the UK.

  5. FAIRHILL BHOY on 21ST APRIL 2020 10:44 PM

     

    Perry como is my dads favourite and he can still sing like him.

     

     

     

     

    MARSPAPA-remember when you told wee Benny his bhoy was a midget 🕺

     

     

     

    hahaha……wee Benny went through me for the exact opposite , Big yin :))))))

  6. Sid @ 7.27

     

     

    “Bearing in mind our figures are hospital deaths only and we are behind the likes of Spain, Belgium Italy etc.

     

     

    Which country per capita are we better than?”

     

    —————————————————————-

     

     

    Iran, for a start, but since we are not yet comparing like with like we can’t get a very accurate picture of where we are at.

     

     

     

     

     

    “Please don’t tell me you’re falling for the British propaganda bulldog spirit, are you?”

     

    ———————————————–

     

     

    No!. I was talking about the resilience shown in many countries. There is nothing unique about the Brits, the Scots or the Irish. We share all human traits- the good and the bad.

     

     

    So far, in Britain, the general population has been very disciplined in observing safer practices. The fact that the toll is so high just serves to show how high it could have been without it. We will get a more accurate picture of our general Mental health in due course but early signs are positive. I fear we will find it more difficult to cope with a taged relaxation of lockdown as people are used to thinking in dualist terms- it is either a threat or its not a threat. This will remain a threat for sometime – and we often only get to estimate the level of threat after it has occurred, especially with the incubation period this has and the Asymptomatic carriers. It’s all difficult to get straight inside your own head but it is better to be respectful of the level of this threat until we reach, if we do, an all clear situation.

  7. Bearing in mind the reason we are all here (Celtic, a team unique in nature in world football) it’s important to remember who this nasty virus affects most. It isn’t just our grandparents, elderly friends but many more of societies most vulnerable.

     

     

     

    An unequal society means covid-19 is hitting ethnic minorities harder

     

     

    During the coronavirus epidemic, people from black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) backgrounds are being hit particularly hard, according to emerging data.

     

    The most recent figures compiled by the UK’s Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centresuggests that of nearly 5000 people critically ill with covid-19 in England, Wales and Northern Ireland whose ethnicity was known, 34 per cent were from BAME backgrounds. But people from such groups make up only 14 per cent of the population of England and Wales, for instance.

     

     

    In the US, figures released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on 18 April showed that of about 120,000 confirmed covid-19 cases where race has been specified, 36 per cent were among non-white people, who account for 23 per cent of the US population. Most were in black or African-American people, who comprise 13 per cent of the population, but 30 per cent of all cases.

     

     

    The UK government has launched an inquiry into this over-representation, and Public Health England is the first UK health body to say it will begin recording covid-19 cases and deaths by ethnicity.

     

     

    “Communities of colour are disproportionately impacted because of racism,” she says. “It’s not about people’s biological make-up. It’s about the conditions that are created due to racialised policies, and how that’s impacted communities over time.” For example, poorer, more disadvantaged people – who are disproportionately from ethnic minorities – are more likely to have underlying health problems such as heart disease, diabetes and obesity that put them at increased risk of covid-19, says Sprague Martinez.

     

     

    “When we have environmental conditions that leave communities vulnerable, that’s when we see an increase in chronic disease,” she says. “That’s the result of policies that have left those communities marginalised.”

     

     

    In the US, where healthcare isn’t universally accessible, studies have found that black people miss out on treatment because of racially biased algorithms. They are also less likely to have health insuranceand more likely to live in areas with fewer primary care doctors than their white counterparts.

     

     

    BAME individuals may also be less able to do social distancing at home. “It’s disproportionately certain groups that still have to go to work,” says Latifa Jackson at Howard University’s college of medicine in Washington DC. In the UK, 18 per cent of black people work in caring, leisure and other services that are either essential or jobs that can’t easily be done from home. In the US, less than 20 per cent of black or African-American people can work from home.

     

     

    These factors may be compounded by racial bias and discrimination in healthcare. Studies have found that people from BAME groups may be treated differently because of healthcare professionals’ unconscious bias, says Jackson.

     

     

    This creates a system of advantage based on race, says Sprague Martinez. “We have to take that into account when thinking about why we’re seeing differential impacts of covid-19.”

     

     

    Ps Bamboo – Off you trot with your 5G. It’s as dangerous as pickles or aloe vera. Cancer publications also state there has been no increase in brain tumors since cell phones became ubiquitous. Alex Jones has a website better suited to your views and also sells cures.

  8. Tobago Street on

    Taken from Snopes.com

     

     

    “Bill Gates is not interested in using vaccines to reduce the population by using them as an agent of death or a tool to sterilize unsuspecting masses. Rather, Gates is interested in keeping more children alive in order to reduce the need for parents to have more children, thus limiting the overall population growth rate.“

     

     

    T

  9. Tobago Street

     

     

    It’s actually an interesting read. Plenty of other ways we can knock Bill Gates.

     

     

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/bill-gates-vaccinations-depopulation/

     

     

    “But Gates’ view on childhood mortality contribution to population growth is increasingly discussed in the scientific literature and is still subject to debate. What is not up to debate are the intentions of the Bill and Melinda Gate’s Foundation with regard to vaccines and population growth.”

  10. Tobago Street on

    Yes AIPPLE, the point is Bill Gates is NOT wanting or trying to kill people. To the best of my knowledge he’s using his money and influence trying to make life better for millions of people. And yet some folk think he’s advocating genocide!

     

    If someone believes the moon landing was faked, nothing you say or do will change their mind.

     

     

    T

  11. Clinical trials of a coronavirus vaccine will begin on people from Thursday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has said.

     

     

    The Oxford vaccine, called ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, is made from a harmless chimpanzee virus that has been genetically engineered to carry part of the coronavirus.

     

     

    “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” comes to mind. 🤔

  12. Football is beginning to exit its Uefa bullying and TV money induced delusional world.

     

    The Dutch league season now looks like finishing early as reality bites and their government spells out what the Dutch fa must have known.

     

     

    Next football will need to face the reality of the folly and danger of, and therefore the improbability of, behind closed doors games. This notion is desperation for TV money with no regard for anyone’s safety or health. For a start, social distancing won’t allow it never mind all the other possibilities for transmission of the virus, as well as signals it gives to the general public that there’s one rule for them and their non essential livelihood and another for football.

  13. Canamalar it looks like OCD obsession on

    Aipple,

     

    Will check out that vid later but one quick question.

     

    Does the vid address the question about travel time to the moon and back?

     

     

    Apollo 11 took 10 days for the total mission take off from earth, land on the moon , one small step, take off from the moon, and splash down on earth all in ten days.

     

     

    Today’s estimate is 3 month for the journey time alone, how does that work ?

  14. Canamalar it looks like OCD obsession on

    The other related question is their published data regarding the journey.

     

    We are told they travelled at 24,000mph

     

    The distance is 250000 miles

     

    That would be roughly just over 10 hours

     

     

    Did they stop for a kip?

  15. Good morning CQN from another beautiful sunny day in the Garngad

     

     

    Ffs turned on TV and they are asking Tony Blair for advice on Covid19…. They wid be better asking feckin Lionel Blair and he is probably Deed like RFC.

     

     

    D. :)

  16. Ah, an old CQN fav makes an appearance. The ” Moonlandings ”

     

     

    HH to all and stay safe.

  17. Canamalar it looks like OCD obsession on

    Oh the journey time they told us was 2.5 days or 60 hours.

  18. Canamalar it looks like OCD obsession on

    Greenpinata,

     

    I’m interested to know why you think Dominic Cummings would agree with me and why you thought it was relevant?

  19. CANAMALAR

     

     

    The Apollo 11 craft only traveled at top speed for a very short period. After an initial acceleration there was a very long deceleration as it got towards the moon.

     

     

    The craft also orbited the Earth after take off and the moon several times before landing.

     

     

    Interested to know where the 3 months journey to the moon comes from I have not come across that anywhere, are you possibly thinking Mars?

  20. Canamalar it looks like OCD obsession on

    Yorkbhoy,

     

    It was a previous estimate by NASA a few years ago, someone linked it on here in one of our previous debates.

     

    I’m sure mars is three years

  21. Top ten films.

     

    Midnight Express

     

    Blues Brothers

     

    Local Hero

     

    My Cousin Vinny

     

    Shawshank Redemption

     

    The Green Mile

     

    Silence of the Lambs

     

    Red Dragon

     

    Some Mother’s Son

     

    66 Days

     

    Keep the Faith!

     

    Hail Hail!

  22. FAVOURITE UNCLE on

    DAVID66 on 22ND APRIL 2020 7:35 AM

     

     

     

    Probably deed.get some more coffee in you before posting again.

     

     

    PS And on a more important issue whats your take on moon landings.

  23. Never seen that time for the moon.. except in the “How long would it take you to walk, run, drive fly etc to the moon”?

     

     

    Mars is “only” between 150 – 350 days and Elon Musk is trying to shorten that with more efficient engines.

     

     

    Curiosity took about 250 days to get to Mars but if you add on the visit to the planet and the return trip you could be talking years.

  24. AIPPLE

     

     

    We’ll see about 5g .

     

    .It was first developed in Israel as a weapon and its much more powerful than 3&4g.

     

    Suggest you do a bit of research.

  25. Fav Uncle – I do like my coffee☕️ Sorry if that last post was in bad taste. I just think Mr Blair should have stood on some sort of charge for invading countries and killing innocent people, but I am no politician.

     

     

    No thoughts whatsoever on moon landings as it will not help me in my life if someone landed on a moon or not, couldn’t give a flying feck.

     

     

    More interested in people staying safe in this very sad and trying time.

     

     

    Posters can talk about moon landings or moon howling’s or whatever they like as far as I’m concerned.

     

     

    D. :)

  26. Canamalar

     

     

    you are aware Dominic Cummings has very, very strong links to Russia and the Conservative Friends of Russia, having involvement in many ventures while he was living there. In fact so much so his security clearance was questioned by MP’s.

     

     

    As Russia Today , or RT is over 99.5 % state owned and subsequently a state tool the correlation between Dominic Cummings and RT would seem self explanatory.

     

     

    I wonder how long BJ will refuse to publish the report into Russian involvement into British politics?

     

     

    Cheers and HH.

  27. Canamalar it looks like OCD obsession on

    Greenpinata,

     

    And on that type of pythonesque ‘a duck must be made of wood’ logic, I must also be a Russian asset, is that it?

  28. macjay1 for Neil Lennon on

    GREENPINATA on 22ND APRIL 2020 8:20 AM

     

     

    R.T.

     

    Putin`s Pravda.

     

     

    The Cummings comments are interesting .