I read one highly unlikely article yesterday suggesting we were going to sign Alfred Finnbogason AND were still bidding big money for Kevin Doyle ahead of an 11pm tonight signing deadline. It’s hard to be so wrong in so few words, but this one hit the mark.
Alfred is a target but, and this is the key point the newspapers have not picked up on, he is one of four strikers Celtic are seriously considering at the moment. He looks the part, as do the others, I am assured, but the deal has to be right for Celtic to move.
Our strategic plan is to buy players at a comparatively low price, develop them on the Champions League stage, and sell high, in order to be able to build a team capable of competing further in the Champions League.
To do this we need to buy from the right markets, at the correct age and on the right wage. There will be exceptions to this rule. A few weeks shy of his 27th birthday, Dirk Boerrigter is unlikely to appreciate greatly, but teams need experience to tackle the Champions League, as well as some specific skills, so Dirk is here for what he can give today, not to be the next £12m exit.
We will see more business like Wanyama and Hooper. Before Celtic agree a deal for Finnbogason there would need to be a gap between the buy price and the projected valuation IF the player is a success. If this gap doesn’t exist we will do business elsewhere. Sticking to strategy is more important than pursuing a target like some latter-day David “this time we’re really going for it” Murray.
You can also forget about the 11pm deadline tonight. That is only relevant if we need two or more new players to overcome Shakhter Karagandy. If we want to add Finnbogason, or any ONE other player, the deadline for a Wildcard signing is a day before the game, or pretty much when the team leaves Glasgow Airport, so there is no effective deadline tonight. As such, I would be surprised if a deal was concluded today.
Right now, at Lennoxtown and Celtic Park, people are deciding how to invest our money. We have the kind of choices consistent with a well-run club, but while we are a well-run club, we can’t get caught up in the hubris.
We are living through some big changes in our financial model. Revenue from domestic football (season ticket sales-now discounted, Rangers game £42-per-head ticket sales, hospitality sales, commercial income) has fallen, or disappeared completely (I reckon we’re in the region of £9m p.a. down in these areas, we’ll have a better indication when accounts are released later this month). On top of this, the club was running at a loss without Champions League football or significant player sale (£7m for season 2011-12, the last we have accounts for), and as well as some income streams falling, costs have risen.
I heard that one ‘St Mirren’ supporting journo on Radio Scotland on Saturday said with last season’s Champions League income and money from player sales, Celtic have a £40m transfer kitty.
In the name of all that is sacred, nine years after ‘What the Celtic fans want to know is where is all the Seville money?’, the same nonsense is being peddled. As far as some are concerned, we are back where we started on CQN. The first thing you do with your money is pay your bills, including tax… there is no creditor left behind at Celtic. After they are taken care off you can look to invest in footballers.
This year, the underlying loss has been flipped because of player sales and that Champions League income, although not by nearly as much as journos who regard researching accounts before commenting on finance as an unnecessary indulgence, will tell you. Without Champions League income (this season potentially £14m plus any prize money earned), the money from Wanyama alone would not make this a profitable season, even before the spend on our new signings.
The road ahead is clear. Get into the Champions League as often as possible without allowing any individual failure to cause a collapse, sign players who will flourish at that level, sell them for a profit, repeat and reinforce all aspects of strategy with an improved budget.
Over any business period, every penny which comes into the club, has been, and will continue to be, spent. Our money will be invested in footballers who will appreciate in value, and who will give Celtic their best chance of pushing further in the Champions League on a persistent basis. It will not rest in a bank account earning a pittance in interest. The strategy is ambitious and sustainable but not reckless.
A year ago some wondered if Celtic could survive, never mind flourish, without a Rangers-branded club in the league. If successful, this strategy will not only allow the club to flourish, it may even result in higher long-term income than Celtic achieved while locked in an arms race with a former rival, with a corresponding improvement in Champions League achievement.
Is Alfred Finnbogason the man, is he better than the others we’re looking at, good enough to excel in the Champions League? I’ve no idea, but he is just one detail in the wider Celtic strategy.
Stick to plan, Celtic.
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Paul67
Good article
Dirk is Derk just in case ole Peter phones you this morning with the Finnbogason latest
blantyretim
12:27 on 12 August, 2013
Absolutely …..and sensible dreams always come true ……. onwards and upwards …
Proud hoy
If you catch this, I am in Perth’ around until Fri 23rd.
Was in Sadie’s all Sunday, very busy.
HH
The obvious Norwegian name is soooooooooo last Tirsdag.
bournesouprecipe
Big Shuggie?
67
We always disagree with policy because my heads in the clouds… O)
England a/o for 330, a lead of 302.
Tough but not impossible ask for the ole Baggy Greens.
Teddy Bjarnason
DBBIA
Everyone likes a piece of ass,but no-one likes a smartass!
BSR -did we not have 2 Icelandic brothers in the ole development squad?
Morning bhoys and ghirls ,
name dropping time – bumped into Paul Lambert – said HH to him and Steve Bruce – ignored him as i was getting off and they were getting on the train in Birmingham this morning – both London bound .
Lot of time for PL – good lad .
Sanna
Paul67, thanks for providing this find site to air all views Celtic. The tired MSM could only dream about producing a piece of writing like your opening article.
The 4 strikers, Finbogsson, Doyle, Sharp, Guidetti……with Alfie 1, Guidetti 2, Sharp 3, Doyle 4.
Thoughts?
Kikinthenakas
no amition from pirate pete except for his bonus
blantyretim
12:33 on 12 August, 2013
Not a bad place to be……..good that you are a Celtic fanatic, since you wouldn’t want to be living UNDER a cloud, like some…..hehe ……. zombie2 just around the corner now….!!!!!!!!
starry
Ole Shuggie the only Icelander that ever settled into a brick built igloo in Rutherglen.
BSR
Big Johannes Edvaldson?
Good article Paul,
The only issue I would take is the rangers at £42. The vast majority of these tickets were already included in the season book, which was not discounted last year. So in reality the only money lost for these games would be money from the visiting support and corporate hospitality.
I would be surprised if there was a massive decline due to the loss of these two games. I think I am right in saying we also released a new home strip last year for 125 and doubled the cost of the paradise windfall (it all counts!), so all things considered last season should have been the most profitable in our history.
There is a long way to go in the transfer window, but I do think we have taken unnecessary risks with qualification, which you rightly point out is the difference between us making a profit and a loss, by not having players bedded in for the qualifiers, as these, in many ways, are far more important than the group stages themselves.
So far the gamble has paid off, I hope it continues too….
HailHail.
Big Hoose under the Hammer, now Sash in the Attic this day will get better.
bournesouprecipe
The image of that somehow doesn’t even make me think it would be out of place in side street cosmopolitan R’glen….
Paul i have to take u too task You are saying that despite 6 home gates in CL winning league winning SC we would have lost over £12.5m? Sounds like PL spin too me Our business model would not be comprimised by re investing Southampton Norwich and Forests money BACK into team
As i said earlier keep the CL money to re invest in other areas but we have once in a 3/4/5 year cycle to progress the team forward
If we dont, regardless of your doomy analsyis, i fear the support might wonder are we a progressive football club or one who uses business model for the boards benefit
Ps PL always says every penny brought in from player sales will be for the team and we always try to come out of each transfer window stronger
In both of those statements he is at moment a million miles away!!
Paul67
‘Get into the CL as often as possible’.
The problem is, we are making it as difficult as possible for ourselves to do so.
Any ‘wildcard’ signing will almost certainly not feature at Aberdeen and at best will be on the bench in Kazakhstan.
That doesn’t look like very good forward planning to me.
If we go with what we have and don’t get to the CL,i wonder if some on here will change their tune.We have boxed ourselves in to a corner,creating our own Panic Transfer Window.Other Clubs and agents will know what is at stake for us right now.Not wanting to go over old ground again but we should have signed a replacement for Hooper weeks ago.He was always leaving IMO.
DBBIA
Weather wasn’t cold enough for the brothers but which
former Celtic player played for the Indian International team?
p.s. Cricket will be done in time for tea *always is*
Once had the pleasure of Big Shuggie’s company during a holiday in Gran Canaria. The big man’s drink of choice was Mateus Rose but saying that he was doing a bottle per round…….dear round but he was great fun.
Paul67
I understand the model are working to and largely am supportive of it.
I do, however, think that a player who may be in the £6m bracket should not be beyond us considering the income generated through the sales of Wanyama and Hooper.
CQN Saturday Naps Competition : Week 1 results & standings
16 roads sets the early running (Glenard @11/1).
What is the Stars (David Livingston @15/2) and Che (Breden @11/4) are tracking the leader, with the rest of the napsters off the pace.
+£11.00 16 roads (1)
+£7.50 What is the Stars (1)
+£2.75 Che (1)
-£ 1.00 Bada Bing
-£ 1.00 BMCUWP
-£ 1.00 bonbhoy
-£ 1.00 BULL67
-£ 1.00 Burgas Hoops
-£ 1.00 El Madrigal
-£ 1.00 fleagle1888
-£ 1.00 gordybhoy64
-£ 1.00 green T
-£ 1.00 Kilbowie Kelt
-£ 1.00 leftclicktic
-£ 1.00 Magnificentseven
-£ 1.00 MHARK67
-£ 1.00 petec
-£ 1.00 PF Ayr
-£ 1.00 tommytwiststommyturns
-£ 1.00 unionbearBhind
-£ 1.00 valentinesday
-£ 1.00 voguepunter
Cheers, fleagle1888
If Celtic qualify for the CL for the next few seasons,apart from winning it, is there a realistic chance that within a few years when we win the league we go straight into the league without qualifiers. Hope that makes sense
“Revenue from domestic football (season ticket sales-now discounted, Rangers game £42-per-head ticket sales, hospitality sales, commercial income) has fallen, or disappeared completely (I reckon we’re in the region of £9m p.a. down in these areas, we’ll have a better indication when accounts are released later this month)”
Emm perhaps another 1 or 2 ‘bums on seats’ type players may go some way to alleviate that. No one is asking the Board to lavish unsustainable amounts of money on players but the right signings will increase revenue via gate receipts, mechandise, shirt sales etc. For example I’d be interested to know how much nett profit Celtic made from selling Larsson related mechandise. After all a shirt with players name would have been 35 -40 pounds in Henkes time. (As we know shirts cost hee haw to manufacture and clubs make a large profit on sales -hence the reason they change the design nearly every season)
Make the product attractive CSC.
TENMENWONTHELEAGUE
I seriously doubt that anyone signed by us between now and the first-leg will be eligible for a visa,unless UEFA guarantee it.
Celtic will have forwarded,and been cleared,en-bloc.
Follow-ups would require additional input,and not necessarily rubber-stamped.
There you go,Pete. You can have that one as a freebie. How to explain the other fortnight of the transfer window is down to you.
Which was your favourite Rangers?
@TheTributeAct
Good article on the official Liverpool site regarding the match on Saturday:
http://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/latest-news/142364-blog-our-shared-bond-with-celtic
HH
bournesouprecipe
12:57 on
12 August, 2013
Which was your favourite Rangers?
@TheTributeAct
==
The Lone
A small observation.
Argument A: speculate to accumulate.
Argument B: spend only what you can afford to spend, and only when you are certain you have the money.
Repeat ad infinitum (or at least for the seven years I have been on CQN). People keep repeating these arguments, but no one seems to me to move from A to B or vice-versa. Views, therefore, appear entrenched and the debate can become slightly dull.
I’m not complaining. This also happens with a number of other subjects, some of which I like very much. Scrolling past, for those less-than-engrossed in the particular subject, is always the best option.
oglach
12:58 on
12 August, 2013
Shurely that should be The Loan(s) (unpaid).
oglach
Aye too right – what happened to the Henrik Larsson mask money?
bournesouprecipe .
Mo Salim .
Name the former Celtic player whose father was accused of being a war criminal
Good to see a lot of fans seeing through this PL tosh
The strategy up front has been a total failure. Money down the drain looking for bargains has left us with zero goalscorers
You have to pay premium to buy a goalscorer Just get on with it and less propaganda