I read one highly unlikely article yesterday suggesting we were going to sign Alfred Finnbogason AND were still bidding big money for Kevin Doyle ahead of an 11pm tonight signing deadline. It’s hard to be so wrong in so few words, but this one hit the mark.
Alfred is a target but, and this is the key point the newspapers have not picked up on, he is one of four strikers Celtic are seriously considering at the moment. He looks the part, as do the others, I am assured, but the deal has to be right for Celtic to move.
Our strategic plan is to buy players at a comparatively low price, develop them on the Champions League stage, and sell high, in order to be able to build a team capable of competing further in the Champions League.
To do this we need to buy from the right markets, at the correct age and on the right wage. There will be exceptions to this rule. A few weeks shy of his 27th birthday, Dirk Boerrigter is unlikely to appreciate greatly, but teams need experience to tackle the Champions League, as well as some specific skills, so Dirk is here for what he can give today, not to be the next £12m exit.
We will see more business like Wanyama and Hooper. Before Celtic agree a deal for Finnbogason there would need to be a gap between the buy price and the projected valuation IF the player is a success. If this gap doesn’t exist we will do business elsewhere. Sticking to strategy is more important than pursuing a target like some latter-day David “this time we’re really going for it” Murray.
You can also forget about the 11pm deadline tonight. That is only relevant if we need two or more new players to overcome Shakhter Karagandy. If we want to add Finnbogason, or any ONE other player, the deadline for a Wildcard signing is a day before the game, or pretty much when the team leaves Glasgow Airport, so there is no effective deadline tonight. As such, I would be surprised if a deal was concluded today.
Right now, at Lennoxtown and Celtic Park, people are deciding how to invest our money. We have the kind of choices consistent with a well-run club, but while we are a well-run club, we can’t get caught up in the hubris.
We are living through some big changes in our financial model. Revenue from domestic football (season ticket sales-now discounted, Rangers game £42-per-head ticket sales, hospitality sales, commercial income) has fallen, or disappeared completely (I reckon we’re in the region of £9m p.a. down in these areas, we’ll have a better indication when accounts are released later this month). On top of this, the club was running at a loss without Champions League football or significant player sale (£7m for season 2011-12, the last we have accounts for), and as well as some income streams falling, costs have risen.
I heard that one ‘St Mirren’ supporting journo on Radio Scotland on Saturday said with last season’s Champions League income and money from player sales, Celtic have a £40m transfer kitty.
In the name of all that is sacred, nine years after ‘What the Celtic fans want to know is where is all the Seville money?’, the same nonsense is being peddled. As far as some are concerned, we are back where we started on CQN. The first thing you do with your money is pay your bills, including tax… there is no creditor left behind at Celtic. After they are taken care off you can look to invest in footballers.
This year, the underlying loss has been flipped because of player sales and that Champions League income, although not by nearly as much as journos who regard researching accounts before commenting on finance as an unnecessary indulgence, will tell you. Without Champions League income (this season potentially £14m plus any prize money earned), the money from Wanyama alone would not make this a profitable season, even before the spend on our new signings.
The road ahead is clear. Get into the Champions League as often as possible without allowing any individual failure to cause a collapse, sign players who will flourish at that level, sell them for a profit, repeat and reinforce all aspects of strategy with an improved budget.
Over any business period, every penny which comes into the club, has been, and will continue to be, spent. Our money will be invested in footballers who will appreciate in value, and who will give Celtic their best chance of pushing further in the Champions League on a persistent basis. It will not rest in a bank account earning a pittance in interest. The strategy is ambitious and sustainable but not reckless.
A year ago some wondered if Celtic could survive, never mind flourish, without a Rangers-branded club in the league. If successful, this strategy will not only allow the club to flourish, it may even result in higher long-term income than Celtic achieved while locked in an arms race with a former rival, with a corresponding improvement in Champions League achievement.
Is Alfred Finnbogason the man, is he better than the others we’re looking at, good enough to excel in the Champions League? I’ve no idea, but he is just one detail in the wider Celtic strategy.
Stick to plan, Celtic.
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BOBBY MURDOCH’S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS
Ha ha! That made me guffaw there BMCUW!!
Marti
I generally agree with Pauls strategic analyses.. but I think he’s going a bit overboard here.
He is fond of noting that Celtic will spend what they earn – a bit more some years, a bit less others. To my mind then if you sell a striker for ~£5m and get another for similar fee and wages then that makes no net difference. We aren’t paying corporation tax presently due to accrued losses (I think)?
I totally agree with the strategy of buying younger, value appreciating players. To my mind Finnbogason fits that mold – he’s just a couple of million above our usual price ceiling. But I think that the market price for this position is inflated for all teams – so we just have to invest a bit more there…
The alternative extreme is to do a Wenger – say that prices are out of control, refuse to play and miss out every year. NB I’m not saying Celtic are like that.. generally I think they have it about right the last couple of years.
Having watched highlights of quite a few matches now (not just his youtube goal compilations) I reckon he is a decent bet. If they have other aces up their sleeve.. great…if not I’d be happy to spend that cash.
oldtim
new one for me
enjoy …remember drink sensibly :¬))
dbbia
she maybe wants to run sevco 2.once sevco 1 hit the iceberg thats been following them since last june haaa hh
Dbbia
You spoke too soon
Celtic Tom,
I have to disagree. The fundamental reason the product is inferior is because we play in a league where the finances are poor, especially compared to that next door. Until Celtic play in a league where they have the same riches guaranteed, we can never but be careful.
Imo, the Board are doing all they can to support the efforts of our manager and the backroom staff to put as good a Celtic team on the pitch as is possible, given our playing environment.
Again imo, John Park has done an amazing job.
I think we have too to appreciate that the world, including and maybe particularly the football following one, has changed utterly. By that I mean, we only need to look at Saturday’s attendance. A lot of people are surprised that there were 3 times as many Liverpool supporters there than Celtic ones. Generations have grown up in Ireland who have no direct experience of seeing Celtic and who every day virtually during the season can see the EPL. It’s no contest. There seems to be a residual interest in us but they follow the likes of Liverpool and, particularly Man Und.
For me, that’s the real world in which our Board has to try and build a strong Celtic.
If we have to stay here, the one hope I have is that the other teams try and put the emphasis on skill. It’s a very, very faint hope.
long haired yins man
Correct. It is the spine of outr team. Our 2 best players have left. Plus Wilson – our first choice CB (Neil’s words). failure to replace those guys is negligent. Seriously – we are on the brink of a very tricky CL qualifier. Neil said we would hope to have 2 or 3 players in before Elfsborg, we got Derk. After Elfsborg, he said we desperately needed bodies as the squad is stretched and running on empty. He said we would be ‘working hard to get players in’…. before Monday (today). After today, we can only add 1 name (wildcard) in order to secure Champions League riches, hold the fans attention for the season, and ensure Neil has the tools that he clearly stated he needs.
Are we backing our manager? According to his comments, we clearly are not.
8 players out, 4 in. Squad is clearly too small at the moment. Yes, we can add bodies after today, but why not maximise our chances in the playoff round – given the rewards at stake.
Holding midfielder – to replace Wanyama.
Scoring striker – to replace Hooper.
Starting Centre Back – to replace Wilson.
All badly needed.
Cover at left back – to back up Izaguirre
would also be useful.
Malone Bhoy (15:57): “As others have stated, he’d cost what we got for Hooper and be on similar money. It would be like a like for like replacement who ISN’T on the last year of a contract.”
I reckon he would score (and create) more goals than Hooper.
There was some debate a few years ago about possibly joiing up with the Dutch (amongst others) in a “Jupiter League”. We now seem to be adopting the inverse strategy of getting all the Dutch (and Dutch based) players to join us instead.
Parkheadcumsalford
16:33 on
12 August, 2013
Celtic Tom,
I have to disagree. The fundamental reason the product is inferior is because we play in a league where the finances are poor, especially compared to that next door. Until Celtic play in a league where they have the same riches guaranteed, we can never but be careful.
Imo, the Board are doing all they can to support the efforts of our manager and the backroom staff to put as good a Celtic team on the pitch as is possible, given our playing environment.
Again imo, John Park has done an amazing job.
I think we have too to appreciate that the world, including and maybe particularly the football following one, has changed utterly. By that I mean, we only need to look at Saturday’s attendance. A lot of people are surprised that there were 3 times as many Liverpool supporters there than Celtic ones. Generations have grown up in Ireland who have no direct experience of seeing Celtic and who every day virtually during the season can see the EPL. It’s no contest. There seems to be a residual interest in us but they follow the likes of Liverpool and, particularly Man Und.
For me, that’s the real world in which our Board has to try and build a strong Celtic.
If we have to stay here, the one hope I have is that the other teams try and put the emphasis on skill. It’s a very, very faint hope.
Well said, & I totally agree with your post.
Instead of putting giant banners across all the empty seats,a good idea would to gey one of those gigantic cheques they have on charity events,showing all the “Accountants”we seem to have as fans,just how much we have in the bank.Imagine the fun we could all have waiting every week to see how much the total stands at.We could also put prices on star players jerseys,instead of numbers.Whenever they score,or play a blinder,can you imagine the excitement among the fans to see how much their value has risen the following week.
The results would not matter in this frenzied euphoria.
As Brynn would say”Well,I for one cant wait”.
Now 115/1.
Hexed.
Gggrrrrrrrr.
A wee change of subject to SFA Skullduggery.
More about this will hopefully appear in the next CQB mag.Orginal on TSFM.
—————————–
SFA and Rangers(IL) have previous on this. One particular piece of evidence is a letter concerning Regan that contains this interesting excerpt:
“2. That is despite the fact that following the BBC’s transmission of a television programme,that we understand prompted your investigation, you and Mr Campbell Ogilvie attendeda private dinner with our client and Ali Russell during which matters relating to RangersFC were discussed including the financial difficulties being experienced by the Club. Weare instructed that during the dinner you told Mr Whyte he had been open with the SFAand you expressed your appreciation of that openness telling our client that the SFAwas there to help. In respect of Mr Whyte’s director disqualification, you indicated to Mr Whyte that the issue would not prevent our client from remaining involved with RangersFC. Our client specifically recalls that you indicated to him that he should not worryabout his previous disqualification as a director.”
http://www.scribd.com/doc/142823209/Regan-Letter
____________________
I’m pretty sure that the dinner referred to happened around Xmas 2011 and it was prompted by the draft Regan submitted to Rangers for approval on the matter of granting the 2011 UEFA licence .
This draft caused consternation in the Rangers camp by focussing on an issue they wanted to keep buried-the unwarranted delay in paying the £2.8m wee tax bill. It also drew the comment that any questions then raised would put the SFA in a difficult position! The solution was to invite Regan and Ogilvie to dinner to discuss the tax bill and other issues. I see now that one of these other issues was Whyte’s fit and proper status which at that point before administration was not an issue for Ogilvie or Regan.
An interesting side point to emerge from reading that letter to the SFA is that, in response, the SFA could have supplied a letter with Craig Whyte’s name on it from Sep 2011 stating that Rangers were in ongoing discussions with HMRC which, whilst true, was no reason to delay payment or remove the bill from being an overdue payable, but significantly in relation to the unfit person charge, contained a claim to have paid HMRC £500k on account. There is no indication in any subsequent correspondence that HMRC were paid anything and the SFA could claim with justification that CW lied to them in that letter.
However CW could claim in turn that the tone of the SFA letter instructiing him what was required to negotiate the final licensing checkpoint under Article 67 in Sept 2011 suggested anything he said was unlikely to be picked up by the UEFA Club Financial Control Body!
Oh what a tangled web we weave eh?
What is emerging is that far from doing the job of protecting Scottish football that I for one thought was their remit, Ogilvie and Regan actively participated in a plan that has done the opposite, including their positioning as appeal point on the LNS enquiry and then participating in it and conflating the illegal wee tax case with the disputed big tax case to give appearance both were under dispute.
If The Rangers once again enter administration the anger of the Bears,once they realise how the SFA failed to protect them from Whyte and Green will see both Ogilvie and Regan removed from position. They more than anyone will be hoping administration will be avoided.
Finally HMRC should also be questioning said gentlemen’s role in aiding and abetting tax evasion as the legitimacy of the wee tax bill was never in question.
Dbbia
COYBIG baggies
Was it not the ‘Jupiler League’, after the ole Belgian beer?
I’m more of a Kestrel man myself.
LuxCelt
Are we backing our manager?
Absolutely not. Get us into the riches of the CL Neil, but do it on the cheap please. We’ll weaken last season’s squad to navigate one extra qualification round.
We will sign a striker before next week but will he be signed in time to play at the weekend to get some game time with his new teammates?
We go to Kazakhstan with an unproven central defence, no matter who we pick.
theguywithebunnet@stumac593h
#asknaismith Did you make Team GB diving team this year?
John@saabbhoy2h
#asknaismith where were you when you knew your career as a professional footballer was over?
Luxcelt, agreed. When I talk in work or to my children’s teacher at school, I always keep in my head that if I hear progress from last time then that’s all that matters. Without these three guys we go very much backward. Always wince when I hear Peter L mentioning “strengthening the squad” but never the first 11. He is not speculating to accumulate at this very important time before the final CL round. Could this be another Steven Fletcher moment? Hopefully I am proved wrong and we sign some first team players but I think the board that the Kazak game will not be as challenging as say a Legia Warsaw game and therefore not exceptional talent required from our side.
PS I thought wee Izzy was brilliant against some £20 million winger called Downing on Saturday.
Forza Celtic!
Smiling_Assassin ♓@Ruth_Less_Lady5h
#AskNaismith Is your favourite clothing brand “Bench”
Auldhied @ 16:15,
You are certainly right, there is no need to panic, after all we’renot the ones who will hearing the – so long and thanks for all the fish.
The thing is The Plan one of my hats is project management, being PRINCE qualified i have like most never implemented a stringent PRINCE project.
Any good plan has the to be flexible enough to ensure you achieve your deliverables and manage risks.
I would say we’re late in delivering a striker that put us at risk in Sweden and now possibly Kazakhstan.
Still as long as Lenny gets results we’re okay, which I’m sure he will.
We shall indeed see.
Hail Hail
Follow #asknaismith
Brilliant laugh
Surely our investment in the youth system should be geared at bringing at least 1 thru to the first team each year. This is the thing that concerns me -the lack of progress in this area.
Team rebuilding is a cyclical thing too. If we can rebuild this August and still qualify for the CL group it will be a marvellous achievement, but it ought not to have to be replicated next August, or not to the same extent. If the new guys are good, we ought to be able to keep them at Celtic for this season and next, at least.
One or two might really get Celtic and want to stay, as Sami, Emilio, Kris C and others have done. One or two will go the way of Victor and Hoops. C’est la vie. But a good new crop this August should make next August less of a headache.
Something worth thinking about, in that context, is this. Do we want guys who are likely to be at the World Cup in Brazil next close-season? If we do get World Cup players, we will face Champions’ League qualification for 2014-2015 without them. It’s a tricky business to get every box ticked: good, affordable, resellable, willing to come, able to work with the rest of the group, able to settle.
Scott stewart@scodadoda25s
#asknaismith how does it feel to know Ur LESS WELCOME in IBROX THAN neil lennon singing ira songs,new job 4 u? Barrister? GD on the bench??
Paul67 great read today, thanks.
HH!
steven calder@superteds1m
#asknaismith, in a recent poll everton fans were asked where would you like naisy to play, popular answer was the motorway , they hate you
Chairbhoy
16:49 on
12 August, 2013
Are you indeed? Well you will be happy to know Celtic are interested in the virtues of PRINCE planning and more, but its early stages and even now the capacity being diverted elsewhere is delaying progress.
So when do we spend the Dublin Decider Dough, anyway?
Chairbhoy
Running Celtic cannot be considered a “controlled environment” -sfa, mib’s to name just 2
Kayal33
16:45 on
12 August, 2013
LuxCelt
Are we backing our manager?
Absolutely not. Get us into the riches of the CL Neil, but do it on the cheap please. We’ll weaken last season’s squad to navigate one extra qualification round.
We will sign a striker before next week but will he be signed in time to play at the weekend to get some game time with his new teammates?
We go to Kazakhstan with an unproven central defence, no matter who we pick.
I’m backing NL & Co to succeed
& The team from Kazakhstan are no world beaters
So why should we be afraid?
Hooper left because he wants to have a better chance of playing for
his national team. Vic left because of a bigger wage packet and a
new challenge
Kelvin left because he wants to be with his Family in England.
Keep the faith, everything will work out fine.
Instead of doom and gloom.
Kayal33
16:45 on
12 August, 2013
LuxCelt
Are we backing our manager?
Absolutely not. Get us into the riches of the CL Neil, but do it on the cheap please. We’ll weaken last season’s squad to navigate one extra qualification round.
We will sign a striker before next week but will he be signed in time to play at the weekend to get some game time with his new teammates?
We go to Kazakhstan with an unproven central defence, no matter who we pick.
I’m backing NL & Co to succeed
& The team from Kazakhstan are no world beaters
So why should we be afraid?
Hooper left because he wants to have a better chance of playing for
his national team.Vic left because of a bigger wage packet and a
new challenge
Kelvin left because he wants to be with his Family in England.
Keep the faith, everything will work out fine.
Instead of doom and gloom.
I have just spoken to someone who knows one of the cleaners at Ross Hall, and there is not any medicals booked in for today.
That will be that then.
Kayal33
Correct on all counts. We don’t need to ‘splash the cash’ but we need to make an effort to improve the squad year on year.
A wanyama replacement for example, will be able to be sold on for profit assuming we buy wisely. I have suggested several players who could do the job – Mbodj, Rabiu, Sow, Malanga, etc – a couple have now been snapped up (no surprise there – other clubs are moving faster than us), but players are available, who fit the profile: Young, athletic, versatile, physically strong, internationals with lesser nations, etc. Clubs everywhere love that type of player, so we will be able to attract a lot of interest in him very easily.
The rumour is that we have an israeli guy lkined up for the wanyama role… if so, where the ‘ell is he?
traditionalist88
Yes a good article by Paul Larkin indeed. Most of the Liverpool support at the match were people with young families and all of them had the latest Liverpool mechandise on their kids and themselves. I doubt if even a majority had ever been to Anfield by the way. They are conditioned by TV and the way soccer is reported over here. Celtic are usually a byline in most Southern Irish papers sports coverage in comparision to the reams of newsprint given to EPL Teams.
The Celtic support in Ireland are a real support and I would say that nearly all the Celtic support at the Aviva on Saturday have been to Celtic Park and further afield many many times supporting their team and most of them have SBs. As you say, there is a residual interest in Celtic and many people over here will say they are their “second team”. A concept I don’t really get myself. I even get people in Dublin who will say to me, “Ok Celtic are your first team, but who do you support in England ? “. Many of them clearly don’t get it.
Celtic need to help us though and in that Paul is so right. Abrupt changes in kick off times and dates to suit Sky throw our travel plans into chaos regularly. We get screwed by the exchange rate on merchandise if we live South of the border. The PR department at Celtic could do much more to promote the club over here.
Anyways, wins like Saturday are priceless to us in terms of raising the Celtic profile over here. I think more than a few kids who were at the game on Saturday supporting Liverpool could be asking for Celtic shirts this Christmas as opposed to Liverpool jerseys. They were mightily impressed by our obvious passion and singing in support of our club and a club with true Irish roots.
Marti
Parkheadcumsalford,
I respect your opinion and can see your point. I, however, do not compare us with what happens elsewhere, I do not expect us to match, on or off the park, what Liverpool or any other prem team do, I expect us to live within our means and produce a team that will excite the Celtic fans.
Last season should be the most financially successful in our history, yet the team is worse than at this point 12 months ago. The support is dwindling, partly due to what you have highlighted but also due to the lack of quality going straight into the first team.
We have the money to provide a decent striker, do we have the will?.
I am on record as being supportive of how the business is being run, that does not mean there should be no criticism or failures should not be highlighted.
The 3 players that left Lenny wanted to keep, contracts were offered to two of them at vastly increased terms (I would assume), Celtic have done what they can to keep them, no criticism there. All I am looking for is that money to be reinvested. For all I know Celtic could be well down the road in replacing these players (history does not back this).
We are inferior to last season, not because of the league or finances, but because of our lack of forward planning, imo of course.
HailHail
Allan@AllanMacaaa1m
Seeing as the #asknaismith trend has been such a success, when is there going to be a #askwhittaker so we can rip him to shreds too?
AKBW1888
16:56 on 12 August, 2013
Players leave. When you know the likelihood that a player wants to leave, like Hooper & Wanyama, then you put plans in place to replace them.
No idea how good Karagandy are, no many of us will know how good they are but we have lessened our chance of CL football by weakening our team ahead of the CL qualifiers.
Test