I read one highly unlikely article yesterday suggesting we were going to sign Alfred Finnbogason AND were still bidding big money for Kevin Doyle ahead of an 11pm tonight signing deadline. It’s hard to be so wrong in so few words, but this one hit the mark.
Alfred is a target but, and this is the key point the newspapers have not picked up on, he is one of four strikers Celtic are seriously considering at the moment. He looks the part, as do the others, I am assured, but the deal has to be right for Celtic to move.
Our strategic plan is to buy players at a comparatively low price, develop them on the Champions League stage, and sell high, in order to be able to build a team capable of competing further in the Champions League.
To do this we need to buy from the right markets, at the correct age and on the right wage. There will be exceptions to this rule. A few weeks shy of his 27th birthday, Dirk Boerrigter is unlikely to appreciate greatly, but teams need experience to tackle the Champions League, as well as some specific skills, so Dirk is here for what he can give today, not to be the next £12m exit.
We will see more business like Wanyama and Hooper. Before Celtic agree a deal for Finnbogason there would need to be a gap between the buy price and the projected valuation IF the player is a success. If this gap doesn’t exist we will do business elsewhere. Sticking to strategy is more important than pursuing a target like some latter-day David “this time we’re really going for it” Murray.
You can also forget about the 11pm deadline tonight. That is only relevant if we need two or more new players to overcome Shakhter Karagandy. If we want to add Finnbogason, or any ONE other player, the deadline for a Wildcard signing is a day before the game, or pretty much when the team leaves Glasgow Airport, so there is no effective deadline tonight. As such, I would be surprised if a deal was concluded today.
Right now, at Lennoxtown and Celtic Park, people are deciding how to invest our money. We have the kind of choices consistent with a well-run club, but while we are a well-run club, we can’t get caught up in the hubris.
We are living through some big changes in our financial model. Revenue from domestic football (season ticket sales-now discounted, Rangers game £42-per-head ticket sales, hospitality sales, commercial income) has fallen, or disappeared completely (I reckon we’re in the region of £9m p.a. down in these areas, we’ll have a better indication when accounts are released later this month). On top of this, the club was running at a loss without Champions League football or significant player sale (£7m for season 2011-12, the last we have accounts for), and as well as some income streams falling, costs have risen.
I heard that one ‘St Mirren’ supporting journo on Radio Scotland on Saturday said with last season’s Champions League income and money from player sales, Celtic have a £40m transfer kitty.
In the name of all that is sacred, nine years after ‘What the Celtic fans want to know is where is all the Seville money?’, the same nonsense is being peddled. As far as some are concerned, we are back where we started on CQN. The first thing you do with your money is pay your bills, including tax… there is no creditor left behind at Celtic. After they are taken care off you can look to invest in footballers.
This year, the underlying loss has been flipped because of player sales and that Champions League income, although not by nearly as much as journos who regard researching accounts before commenting on finance as an unnecessary indulgence, will tell you. Without Champions League income (this season potentially £14m plus any prize money earned), the money from Wanyama alone would not make this a profitable season, even before the spend on our new signings.
The road ahead is clear. Get into the Champions League as often as possible without allowing any individual failure to cause a collapse, sign players who will flourish at that level, sell them for a profit, repeat and reinforce all aspects of strategy with an improved budget.
Over any business period, every penny which comes into the club, has been, and will continue to be, spent. Our money will be invested in footballers who will appreciate in value, and who will give Celtic their best chance of pushing further in the Champions League on a persistent basis. It will not rest in a bank account earning a pittance in interest. The strategy is ambitious and sustainable but not reckless.
A year ago some wondered if Celtic could survive, never mind flourish, without a Rangers-branded club in the league. If successful, this strategy will not only allow the club to flourish, it may even result in higher long-term income than Celtic achieved while locked in an arms race with a former rival, with a corresponding improvement in Champions League achievement.
Is Alfred Finnbogason the man, is he better than the others we’re looking at, good enough to excel in the Champions League? I’ve no idea, but he is just one detail in the wider Celtic strategy.
Stick to plan, Celtic.
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Two Million Sevco shares dumped like a big, steaming…
So by some peoples reckoning, if we buy a like for like replacement for Gary Hooper we’ll endanger our future?
Are people actually believing that nonsense?
clashcitybhoy
17:21 on 12 August, 2013
Paul 67,
Interesting article today, and I agree with your fundamental premise that we need to live within our means, but ultimately, it is about results on the park, and in terms of QL qualification, I think we rode our luck against Elfsborg,and leaving CL qualification to luck, isn’t particularly strategic.
It’s been common knowledge that Hooper and Wanyama would go for well over 8 months, so to be still struggling to recruit replacements suggests a lack of planning, which is likely to lead to last minute MIku, Lassad, Browczek type signings ….in all cases there were reasons why these guys were still available at the end of transfer windows.
Where are you getting ‘ we’re struggling to recruit replacements’ from mate, we always do our business on the quiet so just because things aren’t plastered all over the papers and Internet doesn’t mean we’re not doing anything. We have signed 4 players so far and there’s still 3 weeks to go in the transfer window I think we are doing fine so far. Have a bit of faith in the manager he’s not done to badly up to now HH
RalphWaldo- theMartinist team were unlucky to not qualify for the groups with the same number of points as WGS achieved.
And you need to compare the state of the Club when MON took over[ not the state of the squad, which was pretty strong].
Good afternoon Paul.
Your synopsis will be put to the test in our final Champs League qualifier. Google “BATE Borisov Shakhter Karagandy” to have a wee look at just how technically accomplished this team from humble origins are.
If we are indeed beaten by Karagandy, our strategy will have failed and the blame will rest fully with the clubs custodians.
Blog name simplification test
also, we did not loss 4 million from season tickets unless, paul is saying every season ticket holder is a adult from 2012/13, they were not. there has been an increase in season tickets that will off set the 100 pound discount on adult SB,s but why let the truth get in the way of a good theory (worst we have lost out on is 4 million from games against thems in the south side and corporate.
euro outing would have increased performance related sponsor, but lets not talk about that.
starting to think we have a could of spive of our own
HH
I don’t know what the CQN equivalent of Fraping is but Ive just been fraped while making their dinner. Apologies
The Spirit of Arthur Lee
16:47 on 12 August, 2013
#asknaismith
Is mental :)))
if you haven’t seen the new breaking bad yet – you just aren’t trying
It’s a well known fact that teams wi’ funny names are rubbish.
Karagandy,…………Artmedia…,..Oh, wait a minute……..
2001: CELTIC have confirmed that they will launch a shares issue worth £25 million mainly designed to restore the club as a force on the playing field.
Emmm
oglach
17:17 on
12 August, 2013
Turkeybhoy
16:14 on 12 August, 2013
===
Bloody well said sir. A question perhaps we should ask – how would todays squad measure up against Tommy’s teams that contained the likes of Andy Thom, Pierre Van Hooijdonk, Phil O’Donnell Jackie McNamara, Morten Wieghorst, Paolo di Canio, Alan Stubbs, and Jorge Cadete. Oh and we spent quite large sums of money on some of these players but yet never went bankrupt, strange that.
===========================
Only strange if you ignore hyperinflation in players wages not matched by income.
Here is a link to the cost of the 97/98 team that stopped 10iar.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B62m3ggkEX2RUnFMLWFBUkY1VzQ/edit?usp=sharing
It cost £2,600,000 in wages annually and £8,100,000in transfer fees for a total of £10,700,000
That same group of players would cost £30,000,000 to buy and £9,256,000 to pay each year.
If your income does not rise to meet those costs (plus the rest of the cost of the football operation and the other costs of running a club then you will go bust. Ask any Rangers supporter.
living_in_the_love_of_the_commons_people
17:41 on 12 August, 2013
Good afternoon Paul.
Your synopsis will be put to the test in our final Champs League qualifier. Google “BATE Borisov Shakhter Karagandy” to have a wee look at just how technically accomplished this team from humble origins are.
If we are indeed beaten by Karagandy, our strategy will have failed and the blame will rest fully with the clubs custodians.
————————————————————————————————————————
Nah, we’ll be told that due to no CL income, think how lucky we are that the board didn’t spend too much and risk our survival……and people will buy that nonsense.
Because we can
I don’t wanna be another wave in the ocean
I am a rock not just another grain of sand
I wanna be the one you run to when you need a shoulder
I ain’t a soldier but I’m here to take a stand
Because we can
We can sign expensive players, we can pay our bills , we can plan for a period longer than a week or two. We can do all of this because , after searching for a number of years for a business model that works, we have a plan.
Because we can, means having resource, flexibility, and structure.
Moving away from the plan will bring us to a position of “Because we can’t”
And Bon Jovi doesn’t do songs about failure
Another former club in Glasgow bought “wow” signings,
————
they still do mate , usually, they bought who ?
wow hes pish
I see from earlier in the thread the strikers we are supposedly interested in:
Alfred Finnbogason, Kevin Doyle, Billy Sharp and John Guidetti.
Doyle/Sharp – no thanks!!!!!
Alfie would be a great signing but I’m not sure we will splash out the £5,000,000 that Heerenveen are reportedly wanting. John Guidetti? Has done well whilst at Feyenoord on loan (20 goals in 23 appearances). Compares well with Alfie’s stats in the Eredivisie.
Other players not mentioned as being on the radar?
Surprised we’ve not sounded out Reading for Adam Le Fondre to be honest….he has all the attributes IMHO.
1999:
Former Celtic managing director Fergus McCann says the sale of his 51% stake in the club has been a resounding success.
The former Parkhead chief applauded fans for seizing their opportunity to buy into the club.
Mr McCann confirmed, as expected, that Irish businessman Dermot Desmond now has just under 20% of the holdings to become the club’s new main shareholder.
Of the 9,997,728 ordinary shares put up for sale last month, a total of 7,525,880 valid acceptances have been received – just over 75% – generating a sum of £21,072,464.
After saving the club from bankruptcy in 1994 it was always his intention to distribute his shares among supporters and on Friday Mr McCann said he was delighted with what he called an “overwhelming” response.
“I am pleased with the overall result of my share offer and placing, especially with the take-up by supporters who have invested more heavily than in the initial offer by the club in 1994-5,” he said.
“Shareholder supporters will now own approximately 63% of the share total’
“I would like to thank them and the supporters in general for responding and backing my plan over the last five years.”
gebhoy
17:34 on
12 August, 2013
PJBhoynyc @ 1703,
I am astounded that as many posters swallow the party line, PLC Pete throws scraps of info to compliant minions and they put it out as the party line.
The current blog scrapes the bottom of the barrel for me, the scare tactics and expectation management are out early this transfer window, it is pure PLC spin.
Nobody i know expects the board to splash out millions, all we ask for is for them to show some sort of ambition, to laud the current strategy is madness, okay the 3 players wanted to go but we could have kept hold of them until after the qualifiers, but the club decided to take the transfer fees other than gamble.
Dont get me started on the GB situation, i note that we have had no definitive blog from Paul on that situation yet, i would hope if and when he does balance is shown, the current health and safety smokescreen is absolute pish.
The cynic in me would say the timing by the board is very very fly, wait until the majority of season book cash is in, get a new supporters liason person in post (JP is a good guy buy the way) and then execute the strategy – smash the GB
The backlash is coming.
gebhoy
Gedbhoy.
The GB situation @ CP is being looked into as we speak
I reckon they will be given one more reprieve although
PL does have a point about the safety issue and throwing
oneself from side to side and up and down public liability
comes into question here if someone gets hurt
Also, the broken seats issue is another problem
Last Season there was a home match against St Johnstone
where said seats in section 111 where vandalized then
after the Ross County match the same problem has re-emerged
so behaviour with the GB controlled singing section @ CP
has to be addressed and controlled.
I personally like the GB & Singing Section @ CP which brings
an atmosphere to the Stadium although some fellow Hoops
Family members around me complain about them stating that
they sing too many Irish Rebel Folk Songs.
Now I can understand their views so this is another matter
which needs to be addressed as regards to which Irish tunes
are acceptable and which ones are not in-fact I have been to
past Hoops AGM’s & I’ve heard some share holders get up
and complain about said songs being sung @ home which
obviously some shareholders take offence to some of the
Songs. So said issue has to be ironed out as regards to
which songs are acceptable and which ones are not
It’s like that old Fergus McCann tune about some of these
songs will have to be shelved/put aside after all it’s a football
match we are watching not a political rally.
As for your spend-spend-spend suggestion?
Well I’ve already made my feelings known about said matter
it’s called long time investment for our Club not going down
the road which leads to financial oblivion
Nah, no can agree on that point.
Perhaps the season for the first team players at Celtic should be from mid July till ‘out of Europe’ the weans should then play out the rest of the season.
Its a results driven business……..everyone gets heaved in the end if they are not performing.
MON spent but couldn’t make the last 16
WGS downsized the wage bill and made the last 16 twice
NFL scouted talent, sold it on at big profit and made the last 16 in his second season
This tells you a couple of things:
1. Spending big does not guarantee progress
2. Football knowledge/intelligence is a more valuable attribute
3. Seeing a 20 year old and imagining him with 10% extra physical and mental development 2/3 years later is a true talent.
4. All the great managers had this talent. Stein, Busby, Shankly, Ferguson, Michels, Kovacs et al. Its what separates the winners from the triers.
We might be a huge footballing club in our own right but we operate in to all intents and purposes a country of no significance. We are right up there with Iceland, Norway, Finland, Ireland etc
All we need is a standing area for the GB and we are good to go………the model is working.
On a personal note………I think NFL has the mark of greatness on him……..time will tell
Just saying…….
Auldheid @ 16:55,
That is good to know, progamme management is a must within most well managed organisations – or as they say at Ibrox, George.
Gene’s a bhoys name @ 16:55,
That’s why it’s needed, hopefully you are the one who’s controlling the environment. Or to paraphrase a wiser man than me – you should be in a better position to influence the result than them.
Hail Hail
Hun skelper,
I have lots of faith in the manager, but lets cut to the chase, we were lucky to go through against a very poor Elfsborg team.
New signings need time to settle, and in our case many of them pick up injuries early doors.
I don’t want us to be in a position of missing out on CL qualification because we bring in last minute signings who are either unfit, not fully settled, or not good enough.
My vision of short term success, at CP is we win the league every year, and we are still in Europe after Xmas. Last season shouldn’t be the exception, it should be the rule, sadly, I don’t think our board share the vision on Europe.
As I said previously we shouldn’t let incompetence elsewhere fool us into thinking we are strategic and managerial geniuses.
Burnley 78,
Agree with your point about getting into a commercially more lucrative environment.
To do that needs foresight and investment, neither of which we are over endowed with.
Shame
Auldheid
17:46 on 12 August, 2013
That same group of players would cost £30,000,000 to buy and £9,256,000 to pay each year.
??. No one is suggesting that Celtic go out and spend 30 million. The point is that over a period of a few seasons we invested in quality players 2-3 a season if memory serves and ended up with a fantastic team. Now we spend relatively little and quickly sell those who are deemed to be worth anything. Thankfully we acquired Henke before this strategy took root -imagine Celtic without having had Larsson for those glorious seasons.Today he would have been shipped out the 1st decent offer that SAF made.
Sammi could very well be the last Celtic hero.
hahahahahahaha …….Everton are on a winner with this Twitter feed …..if I was locked in a room with a lion, a bear and you, and I had a gun with 2 bullets in it, I’d shoot you twice.…
……….. braw!
Paul,
I would classify myself as a happy-clapping debt nutter. I am all for a sustainable model.
However…..
It needs to be ‘sustainable progress’, not sustainable inertia. Buy a 20 year old, sell at 23. Replace with similar 20 year old. In its simplest form, we would be taking one step forward, and one step back.
There needs to be room in the model to allow us – from time to time – to actually improve. That would mean replacing a player with someone who might actually be better.
I’m sure that’s what you meant….:)
best one yet ………………….was your name just smith until the donkey whispered nai into yer maws ears ………………..really braw!
I have to agree with the posters who say Elfsborg were not a great side if we had faced a side with a cutting edge in my opinion we would have really been in big trouble. We do need a goal scorer who will get over 20 goals in a season and that type of player does not come cheap for every Hooper you get the likes of Miku Lassad Murphy and Bangura so I do think we need patience as we want to get it right guy. I think Paul 67 is talking a lot of sense about our income but any business from time to time needs to speculate to accumulate. H.H.
Paul67
You do yourself no favours by regurgitating the board line as put out by PL.
We are only now able to repair the damage inflicted on the club in 2008/09 by a weak board, a second rate CEO and an Irish Raj. It is not just a case of the income forgone, the defeats on the park and the life sustaining revenues given to the TFOD.
It is the 3 championships gifted to a bank run team at deaths door who survived solely on the CL bounty we handed to them when we snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the first half of 2009.
However that was the past and where are we now.
So the demise of the TFOD is costing us £9mill pa?
Aye right.
Kitchen sink number put forward by a board apologist.
To say it is rubbish would only be the half of it.
The worst part is that you are now the channel for CEO propaganda.
You have to ask where is all the money going?
Is DD looking for a special dividend?
Is PL building a new house?
Chairbhoy
It is the establishment team that has controlled the environment for years
clashcitybhoy
18:03 on 12 August, 2013
I don’t think we where lucky to beat elfsborg mate we never looked in danger of losing any of the games we where poor over there but still had the best chances.
I’m sure the club is trying to get the players needed but it can’t be easy getting decent players to come to Scotland so maybe the players were after are waiting to see if we get into the champions league group stages before signing.
We’ll win the play off no problem with or without new signings HH
AKBW,
I dont advocate the club spend, spend spend, they should strengthen sensibly investing £5-6 million on a finished article, they would more than likely recoup the money spent on him when he moves on.
The club knew in January Wanyama and Hooper were for the off, where was/is the plan to replace them?
The club knew in May the dates of the UCL qualifiers yet still chose to go into them with a substantially weaker side, planning you say!
On the Green Brigade, the lies and spin the club are using against there own fans sickens me to the core, last season Lawell was exposed, his feelings regarding the Green Brigade were made clear in various meetings with the 2 main supporters organisations, he tried to use them against the GB and was exposed. Link below.
http://www.spreaker.com/user/homebhoys/homebhoys_xtra_stevie_cairney
The health and safety stuff may be valid to a point but if you are going down that road, every time Celtic score a goal there will be breaches of that legislation, it is pure obfuscation, and it is the clubs duty to ensure that section 111 is properly managed by the stewards on match days, its a pure smokescreen.
What is even more heart breaking is that whether you agree with the GB or dont, they are still Celtic supporters, some of the most committed and devoted fans we have yet some on here and elsewhere would toss them aside without a second thought, it is sickening.
When i started going to the games myself in the 80,s some of the stuff that went on in the terracing was much worse than anything the GB have ever done. You have to ask the question why, why does Lawell want rid of them when the bring so much to Celtic Park.
When the GB are dealt with, who next? Not in my name PLC!
gebhoy
LuxCelt – thanks for your insight into the Belgian League. I’m currently raiding this in Fitba Manager and signed your guy Kara; didn’t know this was Mbodj that was spoken about earlier. The guy is an absolute beast as an anchor man!
I thought the Israeli was a player called Avihai, who going by Youtube, looks better than Kayal did in his video!
So no signing news from big raman then!!
DBBIA
The MON team had the sort of luck I usually have at cards with CL group results.
None at all.
I agree that context is everything and MON brought us consistent domestic success and raised our profile in Europe via the CL – but my context is at what financial cost. His greatest playing assets were already at the club though, Larsson & Moravcik.
As I tried to intimate, statistics aren’t everything, and so MON’s stats look poor on the (CL) team sheet and on the balance sheet.
My comments about him were to give some more context as some hark back to those good old days with blindfolds on.
He was however the man who gave us back some of our pride.
A great man and great Celt wherever he ends up.
HH
chairbhoy
15:08 on 12 August, 2013
Supersutton @ 14:41,
We bit unfair on that team, we bested what England had to offer and were robbed in Turin, those ghuys did just fine in Europe.
——————–
Just back online. Thanks for taking the time to reply. You did however slant your reply at Europe when I specifically referred to the Champions League.
gebhoy
Something I don’t understand about the GB situation, why would the club give the GB a section in the first place if they wanted to get rid of them?? Don’t make no sense to me.
Serious question from a Celt abroad..
What would have happened if Hooper and VW had signed their new contracts
Is it being suggested we would be facing financial ruination ?