I read one highly unlikely article yesterday suggesting we were going to sign Alfred Finnbogason AND were still bidding big money for Kevin Doyle ahead of an 11pm tonight signing deadline. It’s hard to be so wrong in so few words, but this one hit the mark.
Alfred is a target but, and this is the key point the newspapers have not picked up on, he is one of four strikers Celtic are seriously considering at the moment. He looks the part, as do the others, I am assured, but the deal has to be right for Celtic to move.
Our strategic plan is to buy players at a comparatively low price, develop them on the Champions League stage, and sell high, in order to be able to build a team capable of competing further in the Champions League.
To do this we need to buy from the right markets, at the correct age and on the right wage. There will be exceptions to this rule. A few weeks shy of his 27th birthday, Dirk Boerrigter is unlikely to appreciate greatly, but teams need experience to tackle the Champions League, as well as some specific skills, so Dirk is here for what he can give today, not to be the next £12m exit.
We will see more business like Wanyama and Hooper. Before Celtic agree a deal for Finnbogason there would need to be a gap between the buy price and the projected valuation IF the player is a success. If this gap doesn’t exist we will do business elsewhere. Sticking to strategy is more important than pursuing a target like some latter-day David “this time we’re really going for it” Murray.
You can also forget about the 11pm deadline tonight. That is only relevant if we need two or more new players to overcome Shakhter Karagandy. If we want to add Finnbogason, or any ONE other player, the deadline for a Wildcard signing is a day before the game, or pretty much when the team leaves Glasgow Airport, so there is no effective deadline tonight. As such, I would be surprised if a deal was concluded today.
Right now, at Lennoxtown and Celtic Park, people are deciding how to invest our money. We have the kind of choices consistent with a well-run club, but while we are a well-run club, we can’t get caught up in the hubris.
We are living through some big changes in our financial model. Revenue from domestic football (season ticket sales-now discounted, Rangers game £42-per-head ticket sales, hospitality sales, commercial income) has fallen, or disappeared completely (I reckon we’re in the region of £9m p.a. down in these areas, we’ll have a better indication when accounts are released later this month). On top of this, the club was running at a loss without Champions League football or significant player sale (£7m for season 2011-12, the last we have accounts for), and as well as some income streams falling, costs have risen.
I heard that one ‘St Mirren’ supporting journo on Radio Scotland on Saturday said with last season’s Champions League income and money from player sales, Celtic have a £40m transfer kitty.
In the name of all that is sacred, nine years after ‘What the Celtic fans want to know is where is all the Seville money?’, the same nonsense is being peddled. As far as some are concerned, we are back where we started on CQN. The first thing you do with your money is pay your bills, including tax… there is no creditor left behind at Celtic. After they are taken care off you can look to invest in footballers.
This year, the underlying loss has been flipped because of player sales and that Champions League income, although not by nearly as much as journos who regard researching accounts before commenting on finance as an unnecessary indulgence, will tell you. Without Champions League income (this season potentially £14m plus any prize money earned), the money from Wanyama alone would not make this a profitable season, even before the spend on our new signings.
The road ahead is clear. Get into the Champions League as often as possible without allowing any individual failure to cause a collapse, sign players who will flourish at that level, sell them for a profit, repeat and reinforce all aspects of strategy with an improved budget.
Over any business period, every penny which comes into the club, has been, and will continue to be, spent. Our money will be invested in footballers who will appreciate in value, and who will give Celtic their best chance of pushing further in the Champions League on a persistent basis. It will not rest in a bank account earning a pittance in interest. The strategy is ambitious and sustainable but not reckless.
A year ago some wondered if Celtic could survive, never mind flourish, without a Rangers-branded club in the league. If successful, this strategy will not only allow the club to flourish, it may even result in higher long-term income than Celtic achieved while locked in an arms race with a former rival, with a corresponding improvement in Champions League achievement.
Is Alfred Finnbogason the man, is he better than the others we’re looking at, good enough to excel in the Champions League? I’ve no idea, but he is just one detail in the wider Celtic strategy.
Stick to plan, Celtic.
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Going by Paul’s article then what would have happened if Hooper had signed his contract? £5 mill less on the balance sheet? Spend the money FFS and buy a proven goal scorer.
gebhoy@13:35pm
Must say that your ‘big picture’ post disappointed me, as it seems to be a lone voice in the wilderness. After reading through it is significant how few agree with your perspective. I wish more agreed with you, as I do.
I would suggest that there is something more to consider in the ‘big picture’…
It’s that time of year when negotiating with clubs and agents involves utilizing all forms of information and propoganda. CQN has a variety of audiences which includes other clubs and agents. The Finnbogason deal has been highlighted in the MSM and now CQN, over the last 36 hours. There is a reason for this.
CQN is many things to many people. It is easy to forget this at times..
While agreeing with you.. I will wait till Manouberes are completed.
KnowTheAudience CSC
PS
Welcome back into the light Plato.
Manouberes = OMD.
How long has Lennoxtown been up and running? Five or six years? Barca’s academy was set up in the early 1990’s and it was fully 10 years before they reaped the benefit. I was really encouraged by the way our youngsters faced up to an almost full strength Liverpool. Our coaches seem to be doing a good job. We need to show a little patience.
I’m sure our future is bright. There will be lapses along the way because nothing constructed by man can be perfect. But let’s face it; can things be that much better right now?
dbbia
I will watch when the scores are level plenty wickets in hand and no chance of rain,I cant stand the league of nations England select.
I too want a striker but I thought big Amido did well on sat
Hope he knows Jailhouse Rock!!
Kayal33
17:00 on
12 August, 2013
AKBW1888
16:56 on 12 August, 2013
Players leave. When you know the likelihood that a player wants to leave, like Hooper & Wanyama, then you put plans in place to replace them.
No idea how good Karagandy are, no many of us will know how good they are but we have lessened our chance of CL football by weakening our team ahead of the CL qualifiers.
Yeah I see your point, they Hoops could have been a bit more proactive as regards to
replacements although one has to look @ the finances of the Club which are in place
@ present like wage structure/running costs and so on.
Spending untold amount of money does not necessarily guarantee one success.
Also, there are other considerations one has to take into account for example does
said interested player wants to come to Scotland. Will he settle into Scottish Lifestyle
Easley and be settled. Will he perform for the team and pull his weight
Will he be happy and content all these matters have to be taking into account
It’s not like going into a shop and buying something straight away because you like
it there are catches and complications when it comes to world football transfer market
it’s as simple as that.
I am a wee bit slow.
~What does imo mean..
Marti Sandino
16:57 on
12 August, 2013
Here is a way the support in Eire could be helped out. Designate Eire as overseas as far as Celtic TV are concerned and give supporters in Ireland who buy an SB book the ablity to see the game on Celtic TV if they cannot get to a game as originally planned.
Given the problem is usually caused by a switch of KO time then local games will not be affected so the local association are unlikely to object.
I tell you who will though. SKY! They will not want their audience watching Celtic instead of Liverpool and behind the scenes SKY would be using their influence in terms of the SPL contract to stop it happening.
Sky are the enemy of Scottish football in general and Celtic in particular, they are a ligature around our necks.
#askirkbroadfoot would be better.
I can’t see us having a medical for any international player a day or two before a round of internationals.
Auldheid
16:15 on 12 August, 2013
Chairbhoy
The point is that we do not know whether the search has been widened or not.
The debate is taking place against a fluid landscape where today it can be stated that we sold the spine as a fact (in spite of obtaining 2CBs and retaining the goalkeeper) and that fact given the meaning we will be a weaker team.
The only fact is personnel have changed and we have not seen enough of the replacements to judge, but its a blog and all that matters is now and using now to reinforce an already held position against which time and the reality it brings, crash fruitlessly on the default rock’s position.
~~~~~~~~~
Jings..! Crivvens..! Buenos Dias,Kojo..!
So We Have ‘Obtained’ Two CBs….
And ‘Retained’ A Goalkeeper….
After Flogging Off The Spine Of Oor Team
Well….Virgil For Kelvin….
Straight Swop…More Or Less..?
Moko For ROGNE…..
A Crocked CB…..For A Current Norse Under-21 Defender…
With A History Of Niggling Muscular Injuries….
And ….We Scorned The Opportunity To Bring Back Irish International CB/LB…
Darren O’Dea…Back From Canada…
On A Bosman…..
Yet You Maintain That The Squad Has Not Been Weakened….?
Fail To Sign Finboggason…..
And The Game’s A BOGIE….!
Can I Borrow Your Rose-Tinted Specs,Please….?
~~~~~
Ah…Better !
But Ah’ll Be Needin’ Some Of Yer SOMA Tablets Too…
Down With BANKIER…..!!
Down With The Parsimonious IRISH RAJ !!
Turkeybhoy
16:14 on 12 August, 2013
===
Bloody well said sir. A question perhaps we should ask – how would todays squad measure up against Tommy’s teams that contained the likes of Andy Thom, Pierre Van Hooijdonk, Phil O’Donnell Jackie McNamara, Morten Wieghorst, Paolo di Canio, Alan Stubbs, and Jorge Cadete. Oh and we spent quite large sums of money on some of these players but yet never went bankrupt, strange that.
In my opinion =imo
Paul,
Great article and well up to your usual very high standard.
One thing troubling me is that with your analysis we are merely treading water and have settled for the level we are at currently. Ambition can be costly and ruinous in certain case if prudence is is not observed but surely we must try to get a place at the top table of European Football as it is most certainly where we belong, or am I being too dreamy????
Hail Hail
KINGLUbO
ps Have we signed Marc Crosas yet???!!!!
gherrybhoy57
17:06 on
12 August, 2013
How long has Lennoxtown been up and running? Five or six years? Barca’s academy was set up in the early 1990′s and it was fully 10 years before they reaped the benefit. I was really encouraged by the way our youngsters faced up to an almost full strength Liverpool. Our coaches seem to be doing a good job. We need to show a little patience.
I’m sure our future is bright. There will be lapses along the way because nothing constructed by man can be perfect. But let’s face it; can things be that much better right now?
Well said GerryBhoy, I totally agree with your post.
The manager will be backed until the goin’ gets tough.
In My Opinion
Marti Sandinho
Yes I was there on Saturday myself and it was obvious to anyone who the match going passionate supporters were, and they most certainly were not wearing red. I read a few online Irish reports of the game(RTE being one) and the reporting was pretty much from the Liverpool perspective, and it made me realise that it is pretty easy to brainwash people from an early age. The irony of all this is that Luis Suarez wants to leave our opponents on Saturday to join a Champions league team!
Thankfully, it appears to me that Irish CSC’s are doing well and events like Saturday were a huge PR victory in terms of promoting the club to others who do not know the ‘Celtic story’.
If we can reach the Champions league again some of the EPL tourist fans may even begin to take us seriously!
I do agree we could do a LOT more to promote the club in Ireland(and elsewhere) and I think we have to in order to compete against the free (positive) publicity English sides get just for being English. I see we are starting on that track though with the GAA linkup and the St.Josephs link up announced today. I’ll be interested to hear what Paul Larkin had in mind too.
Interesting times.
HH
Paul 67,
Interesting article today, and I agree with your fundamental premise that we need to live within our means, but ultimately, it is about results on the park, and in terms of QL qualification, I think we rode our luck against Elfsborg,and leaving CL qualification to luck, isn’t particularly strategic.
It’s been common knowledge that Hooper and Wanyama would go for well over 8 months, so to be still struggling to recruit replacements suggests a lack of planning, which is likely to lead to last minute MIku, Lassad, Browczek type signings ….in all cases there were reasons why these guys were still available at the end of transfer windows.
Whoever we bring in, is likely to be inferior / less effective IN THE SHORT TERM than the guys we sell. Long term, they may come good, and indeed may even be better, but, statistically, they are unlikely to hit the ground running.
As for your projection on £9m like for like loss, I think that is high, but, the real issue is what have the club done to address that. The £100 discounts on season tickets was commendable, but, not particularly creative, and certainly not strategic.
Bottom line, is overall, we are a reasonably well run club, but we shouldn’t let the incompetence of our competitors exaggerate the reality of our own competence.
DBBIA
You`re on the wrong thread, this is an Elvis blog
Billyoceancsc
I wonder if the SPFL offered us a postponement of our game against Aberdeen in light of our tough travel schedule in the CL qualifier?
imho = In my honest opinion
Hello from sunny Kentucky.
I posted this the other day, but was a victim of poor timing (Green Brigade announcement) and it got lost in the shuffle.
Thought you lads might find it amusing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KeG_i8CWE8
mncelt
17:21 on 12 August, 2013
They may have done had we not postponed Saturday’s game against St Mirren to go play a meaningless friendly.
i hate all this bull about no money, it a pure lie. first things first, pl said: ‘so long as we are in the E/L we run at a small profit’ so we have not made a loss in real terms for 2 years. Yes, celtic had a 7 million loss, but paid debts down to 2 million, the debt was therefore a paper exercise.
since last July we have moved on 9 first team players and cut the wage bill about 120k per week in the process. we have brought in 4 players on about 60k per week wages. We have brought in 28 million pounds from player sales. we earned 21 million from C/L in commercial only, excluding ticket sales merchandising etc… and I would suspect bonuses would be covered from this pot, if you like. we have spent about 7 million so far in transfer fees and have reduced the wage bill.
p.l said he was trying to keep hooper, but sold him for 5.5 million because he wanted to leave. so all being even we should not be struggling to pay 5 million to replace him for a player who is a year younger, but who clearly has lots of potential.
and another thing, when we all admire porto and their transfer policy it is worth noting that they invest 5 and 6 million on players then sell them for 10, 11 and 12 million. if the bhoy its it off here and in the c/l we will get our money and then some, we will also get a player that wants to play for us.
its not about speculating to accumulate, that involves spending on future potential earnings, the money’s already in the bank ffs
HH
Darren O’Dea FFS….there is no light at the end of some tunnels…
Gerrybhoy
I think there was only 1 academy player in our starting line up (not including mcgeoch) and i think only 1 sub. A young team but not from out own stable.
Darren O’Dea plays in Ukrainian league, just signed for team there last month
oglach
17:17 on
12 August, 2013
Turkeybhoy
16:14 on 12 August, 2013
===
Bloody well said sir. A question perhaps we should ask – how would todays squad measure up against Tommy’s teams that contained the likes of Andy Thom, Pierre Van Hooijdonk, Phil O’Donnell Jackie McNamara, Morten Wieghorst, Paolo di Canio, Alan Stubbs, and Jorge Cadete. Oh and we spent quite large sums of money on some of these players but yet never went bankrupt, strange that.
I know OGLACH, that group of players would have been more successful
if it was not for the payment of tax dues from the other side of the city.
Also the said players back then where on a smaller wage packet on which
they earn nowadays I also note and my memory recalls the tall Pierre came
out with some ridicules comment back then about his wage packet when
a lot of people including myself would be biting his hand off for the same
salary.
I think you only need to look at the financial records from the periods in question to answer your question.
We needed a couple of share issues to put right our overspending and then we needed some post Martin O Neil rationalisation to bring us back on track again in 2005.
Back in TB days we were also not having to compete with the largesse on offer in the EPL and the skewed economic scenario as acute as we have now.
We also did not have the same ‘cap’ on our potential which we had for sevral yesrs being in a very small TV market re uefa distribution of cash between 2 qualifiers (no longer such an issue due to rangers demise).
Like rangers did in 09 we can adopt a piss the highest approach but why should we ? What will we gain ? Many if our supporters do not suffer the same level of financial ignorance that rangers did. Most do not have the same level of avarice which they had.
I would rather celtic existed for many years to come and focused all effort on changing our environment from a position of commercial advantage.
I kan tipe wuth mu eyws shutt> hiw gooood is tgat.
mncelt
17:21 on
12 August, 2013
I wonder if the SPFL offered us a postponement of our game against Aberdeen in light of our tough travel schedule in the CL qualifier?
Wishful thinking MNCelt
Although the so called SPFL would use the excuse ‘Oh said match is being screened
on BT Sport 2 Live so we can’t cancel and rearrange said fixture.
Bobby Russell- with return of Platmeister it should be a Ronnie Dio blog.
PJBhoynyc @ 1703,
I am astounded that as many posters swallow the party line, PLC Pete throws scraps of info to compliant minions and they put it out as the party line.
The current blog scrapes the bottom of the barrel for me, the scare tactics and expectation management are out early this transfer window, it is pure PLC spin.
Nobody i know expects the board to splash out millions, all we ask for is for them to show some sort of ambition, to laud the current strategy is madness, okay the 3 players wanted to go but we could have kept hold of them until after the qualifiers, but the club decided to take the transfer fees other than gamble.
Dont get me started on the GB situation, i note that we have had no definitive blog from Paul on that situation yet, i would hope if and when he does balance is shown, the current health and safety smokescreen is absolute pish.
The cynic in me would say the timing by the board is very very fly, wait until the majority of season book cash is in, get a new supporters liason person in post (JP is a good guy buy the way) and then execute the strategy – smash the GB
The backlash is coming.
gebhoy
Evening Bhoys and Ghirls,
CQN Predictor 2013/2014 is here
Thank you for all those who have registered to take part in the 2013/14 CQN Predictor. We are delighted to announce that we are kicking off next week on Friday 16th August 2013.
We will be running both a league and cup format this season and the cost to take part of this will be £15.00 each in total.
Our Nominated Charity
50% of all proceeds raised will immediately be passed to our nominated charity and I am sure you will agree that our choice is very deserving.
Mackenzie Furnis, a 9 year old from Alloa has sadly been diagnosed with relapsed neuroblastoma, an extremely aggressive childhood cancer. Mackenzie’s best chance of beating the cancer lies in Germany and she needs a lot of money and very quick.
http://oi42.tinypic.com/auuywn.jpg
Your kindness and generosity in helping Mackenzie is very much appreciated, as we know how many of you no doubt already give to charities and also how the current economic situation has affected so many people.
You can read more about Mackenzie here
http://broganrogantrevinoandhogan.wordpress.com/2013/07/30/the-little-stradivarius-mckenzie-furniss/
http://www.justgiving.com/Appeal4Mackenzie
If you have already registered but did not receive details last night, then drop me an email.
Good Luck and Happy Predicting
Cheers
CRC
cqnpredictor@gmail.com
ps Still time to join us!
Burnley78
17:29 on
12 August, 2013
I think you only need to look at the financial records from the periods in question to answer your question.
We needed a couple of share issues to put right our overspending and then we needed some post Martin O Neil rationalisation to bring us back on track again in 2005.
Back in TB days we were also not having to compete with the largesse on offer in the EPL and the skewed economic scenario as acute as we have now.
We also did not have the same ‘cap’ on our potential which we had for sevral yesrs being in a very small TV market re uefa distribution of cash between 2 qualifiers (no longer such an issue due to rangers demise).
Like rangers did in 09 we can adopt a piss the highest approach but why should we ? What will we gain ? Many if our supporters do not suffer the same level of financial ignorance that rangers did. Most do not have the same level of avarice which they had.
I would rather celtic existed for many years to come and focused all effort on changing our environment from a position of commercial advantage.
Well said Burnley 78
& I totally agree with your post.
Player Acquisition and Risk.
Recently, I heard someone say with apparent regret that we have had a different team every year since Martin left. This would be the same Martin who failed to secure qualification from the group stage, despite the massive (to Celtic) financial outlay. This would be the same Martin who was heavily criticized for always picking his favourites even when they were off form. This would be the same Martin whose player procurement style was based largely on paying top money to EPL teams for players, most of whom were not being selected anyway (Sutton, Hartson, Thompson). When this strategy was shown to be driving Celtic on to the same rocks as Oldco, Martin left Celtic, rather than continue to work within a budget that was not going to bankrupt us.
We all enjoyed the success that Celtic had under Martin O’Neill but his methods were completely unsustainable, and when confronted with the option to remain under a sustainable method, he left. He has repeated the same behaviour at Villa & Sunderland (although he was sacked at the latter), with the same outcome. Both clubs spent money on players that they simply couldn’t afford and that crucially did NOT bring them success. The risk inherent in his method was to the financial viability and thus the future of Celtic.
Buying any player is a risk or if you prefer, a gamble. With “wow” signings you gamble that they will live up to their reputation and personally win key games for you. With younger and less expensive players you gamble that the potential is real, and will be realized both in a winning team on the field and in sell on value. With “wow” signings there are other risks that any sensible club would have to factor into the equation, such as:
– they are less hungry than younger players & therefore less committed when we really need them.
– they are more prone to injury or likely to carry long standing injury issues.
– by using the available transfer fund on one “wow” player you are stuffed if & when he gets injured.
– some “wow” players just play in a lesser league (SPL, MLS) when they are past their prime.
– building your team around a “wow” signing leaves the club open to ransom (just ask Liverpool about that one)
– a “wow” signing is absolutely no guarantee of success or even a compensating increase in attendances.
– the cost of securing a “wow” signing is not going to be recovered in sell on value.
Gamblers who know how to survive, do not risk their stake on one random turn of a card. Instead, they play the percentages in the knowledge that they will win some and lose some. Celtic are not high rollers like Chelsea or Manchester City, who regularly spend millions for players who rarely lick a ball for them.
Gordon Strachan was prepared to work within the sustainable business model that Martin O’Neill rejected. Statistics are not always the full story, but qualifying twice from the group stages while simultaneously helping to reduce the club debt is hard to argue with, especially in comparison with the previous model which achieved neither. Neil Lennon, has similarly shown that the current model is successful, on and off the field, and very obviously accepts that the only viable model for Celtic is one that is sustainable.
I do not understand how some seem to want us to venture back down the “bling on tick” road in the hope that it will be successful this time. Neither, do I understand those who want us to buy big, regardless of the known risks. Neither, do I understand those who insist that we are not spending enough of the money that we have allegedly gained by selling Wanyama & Hooper, nor those who berate the club for not having ideal replacements coming through the door just as others leave. Neil Lennon repeatedly tells the fans that he knows what his budget for players is, has signed three players already and is looking to sign more in this window. Let him get on with it please.
Whether we like it or not, playing for Celtic initially only attracts some foreign players because of the prospect of playing in the Champions League. Many other foreign players would not even consider playing in Scotland, regardless of Champions League matches. If we had the money and Liverpool wanted to sell, Luis Suarez would not sign for us. We play in a small pond that provides no challenge to big fish, and with the SPL’s poor worldwide media coverage his profile will fade, is precisely how he will see it. The only possible attraction would be Champions League matches, but for Suarez that would not be enough to drag him to Glasgow.
Another former club in Glasgow bought “wow” signings, gambling that this would win them leagues and entry to the Champions League gravy train, which in turn would lead to spiraling profits, Unfortunately for them, the spiral went down and not up. They gambled and lost.
If, on balance, you don’t trust the Celtic board, then you will judge everything that involves Celtic accordingly. Lord knows, until 1994, the board gave many of us plenty of grounds to distrust them. I don’t resent the wealth that Dermot Desmond has or how he uses it, I’m just grateful that he personally interceded that day at Cheltenham Racecourse to get Gordon Strachan as manager of Celtic. With regard to the board, I believe that they operate in the same type of environment that the team and our manager do. It is an uneven playing field for them, and whatever they say and do is liable to gross distortion by those who seek to damage our club. Good luck to them.
Let’s just concentrate on winning the play off tie.
HH