I read one highly unlikely article yesterday suggesting we were going to sign Alfred Finnbogason AND were still bidding big money for Kevin Doyle ahead of an 11pm tonight signing deadline. It’s hard to be so wrong in so few words, but this one hit the mark.
Alfred is a target but, and this is the key point the newspapers have not picked up on, he is one of four strikers Celtic are seriously considering at the moment. He looks the part, as do the others, I am assured, but the deal has to be right for Celtic to move.
Our strategic plan is to buy players at a comparatively low price, develop them on the Champions League stage, and sell high, in order to be able to build a team capable of competing further in the Champions League.
To do this we need to buy from the right markets, at the correct age and on the right wage. There will be exceptions to this rule. A few weeks shy of his 27th birthday, Dirk Boerrigter is unlikely to appreciate greatly, but teams need experience to tackle the Champions League, as well as some specific skills, so Dirk is here for what he can give today, not to be the next £12m exit.
We will see more business like Wanyama and Hooper. Before Celtic agree a deal for Finnbogason there would need to be a gap between the buy price and the projected valuation IF the player is a success. If this gap doesn’t exist we will do business elsewhere. Sticking to strategy is more important than pursuing a target like some latter-day David “this time we’re really going for it” Murray.
You can also forget about the 11pm deadline tonight. That is only relevant if we need two or more new players to overcome Shakhter Karagandy. If we want to add Finnbogason, or any ONE other player, the deadline for a Wildcard signing is a day before the game, or pretty much when the team leaves Glasgow Airport, so there is no effective deadline tonight. As such, I would be surprised if a deal was concluded today.
Right now, at Lennoxtown and Celtic Park, people are deciding how to invest our money. We have the kind of choices consistent with a well-run club, but while we are a well-run club, we can’t get caught up in the hubris.
We are living through some big changes in our financial model. Revenue from domestic football (season ticket sales-now discounted, Rangers game £42-per-head ticket sales, hospitality sales, commercial income) has fallen, or disappeared completely (I reckon we’re in the region of £9m p.a. down in these areas, we’ll have a better indication when accounts are released later this month). On top of this, the club was running at a loss without Champions League football or significant player sale (£7m for season 2011-12, the last we have accounts for), and as well as some income streams falling, costs have risen.
I heard that one ‘St Mirren’ supporting journo on Radio Scotland on Saturday said with last season’s Champions League income and money from player sales, Celtic have a £40m transfer kitty.
In the name of all that is sacred, nine years after ‘What the Celtic fans want to know is where is all the Seville money?’, the same nonsense is being peddled. As far as some are concerned, we are back where we started on CQN. The first thing you do with your money is pay your bills, including tax… there is no creditor left behind at Celtic. After they are taken care off you can look to invest in footballers.
This year, the underlying loss has been flipped because of player sales and that Champions League income, although not by nearly as much as journos who regard researching accounts before commenting on finance as an unnecessary indulgence, will tell you. Without Champions League income (this season potentially £14m plus any prize money earned), the money from Wanyama alone would not make this a profitable season, even before the spend on our new signings.
The road ahead is clear. Get into the Champions League as often as possible without allowing any individual failure to cause a collapse, sign players who will flourish at that level, sell them for a profit, repeat and reinforce all aspects of strategy with an improved budget.
Over any business period, every penny which comes into the club, has been, and will continue to be, spent. Our money will be invested in footballers who will appreciate in value, and who will give Celtic their best chance of pushing further in the Champions League on a persistent basis. It will not rest in a bank account earning a pittance in interest. The strategy is ambitious and sustainable but not reckless.
A year ago some wondered if Celtic could survive, never mind flourish, without a Rangers-branded club in the league. If successful, this strategy will not only allow the club to flourish, it may even result in higher long-term income than Celtic achieved while locked in an arms race with a former rival, with a corresponding improvement in Champions League achievement.
Is Alfred Finnbogason the man, is he better than the others we’re looking at, good enough to excel in the Champions League? I’ve no idea, but he is just one detail in the wider Celtic strategy.
Stick to plan, Celtic.
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B78 @ 18.37
I have to disagree with you.
We have squandered opportunities left right and centre over the past 10 years.
PL as CEO is not way forward, he has no growth agenda.
As for good governance / management — I don’t think so.
We had an meeting without coffee with the bank in the summer of 2005.
That led to the deeply discounted / emergency rights issue in late 2005.
And all after the Irish Raj had thrown his toys out the pram 9 months earlier.
Then came the EL miracle after the Sion mentalist Fell out with Eufa.
Where we would have been without that windfall is anyone’s guess.
Consequently nil points from me.
MIkeTT…I suppose but the flip side is here we are in December and it’s a cold cold winter…
I’m sure if we asked Neil if he would like to sign some players his answer would be “aye” for sure. What kind of quality we can afford is another question.
Apologies MickTT
gebhoy
The Focus thing is appalling and the way the support were treated, that comes from outside the club of course, I’m finding it hard to believe that the club had a pre meditated plan to shut down the section knowing what a furore it was cause among the support if found to be true it puts us all as supporters in a very difficult place.
On the other hand though if I have a club where no joints are allowed and I tell my punters that and they keep smoking when the Old Bill arrive they tell me “we told you” everybody busted club shut down!!
Strange days indeed before a massive run of games…
canamalar1
18:43 on
12 August, 2013
This paragraph just makes zero sense
“Our strategic plan is to buy players at a comparatively low price, develop them on the Champions League stage, and sell high, in order to be able to build a team capable of competing further in the Champions League.”
To me it is saying, forget team development, we will sell any good players we develop and start again every time.
————————-
To make it make sense I read it as the next purchase builds on the one before and, interestingly, if we pay £3m to £4m for a replacement for Hooper (whoever that might be) who cost £2m (or less) and the purchase turns out to be better than Hopper (or more developed than Hooper was at the start) then that is an improvement strategy.
I tried to make it make sense because I think Paul tries to be sensible and could not knowingly write non sense and it being more likely the words did not convey the full intended meaning.
Its how you read them.
Canamalar
Correct …this scaremongering re replicating the Huns situation is utter BS
Re VW , Hooper etc …Lenny constantly advised us that he was trying to get them to sign new contracts
Was this bollox?
Mike In Toronto
A professional investor who owns shares would want either a dividend or a growth in share value. Otherwise he’d be better putting it in a bank to gain meagre interest.
As far as I can see the share price had a wee bump in January but before that didn’t change much in 5 years. As far as i can tell from googling their shares they don’t pay a dividend.
Whilst I’m sure DD and other the investors would hate to see the value of their holdings plummet. The recent history doesn’t suggest they are really in it for any return.
Take the boy Aguadelo that Stoke just signed on a pre-contract. Were we not in there first? This is what we are competing with? Or did he just want to play for Stoke in the EPL? Does anyone from America (or Colombia) just want to play for Stoke?
Mad Mitch
If our financial position is so parlous ….what is PL doing to deserve such massive remuneration
Auldheid,
Nah, yer havering mhan :o)
It’s there in front of you, plain as the nose on your face, develop players for sale not the team, throw in a wee platitude about making the team stronger then sell them, how does that work ?
If your going to sell the developed players then your not going to develop the team, your going to keep the team treading water and the support being fed jam tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/search?q=%23asknaismith&src=typd
Malarkey
I dont disagree… but here is the problem that others have pointed out ….
What is the end game? We know, because he was honest and up front about it, that wee Fergus (bless him!) would not have invested unless he thought he could make a profit. DD is no less a capitalist as his history indicates…. so, he has a plan, of that there is no doubt.
It might be long term…. maybe it has changed….but clearly DD does not do things like invest in Celtic simply as a charitable exercise…. he is a smart enough business man to have a plan ….. but much of that (which clearly impacts upon the on field product) is not shared with the average punter…. Therein lies much of the problem.
gebhoy
18:23 on 12 August, 2013
The club has to be seen to act on safety inside the ground, the GB where warned about certain things not being allowed inside CP like the lateral movement, moshing and body surfing why you would want to do the last two at a football game is beyond me but they continued to do it and the club acted on it the GB are far from the innocent party in all this some of the stuff they do is cringeworthy at times the worst being the famous ‘ f#ck uefa ‘ banner what was the point in that, when they back the team in song and colour they are the best no doubt about it but they need to sort out so of the other nonsense and hopefully they will get there section back HH
With the exception of Greengo and co …do people really think they can make money out of investing in a football team
If the parsimony continues and IF large dividends are paid …this will not end well
PF- its worth a forensic examination before forming a final opinion- but I’d have to agree- I smell bull
After 3 decades on the run and finally being caught, James ‘Whitey’ Bulger is found guilty of racketeering, conspiracy.
For those of you who are not familiar with the name, remember the movie The Departed?
Jack Nicholson’s part was based on Bulger.
Starry,
The club were colluding with FOCUS against the GB, check the link out i posted earlier, I am in no doubt about whats happening with the GB, the PLC don’t want them at Celtic Park.
The shutting of section 111 has been carefully managed by the PLC, again on this i have no doubts.
I await a substantive balanced blog by Paul on this subject, that looks at all the issues, maybe Paul is too close to the board on this subject to be objective, i don’t know.
gebhoy
canalamar
Players develop at different rates and we could have lost a lot more good players than we have. Two players really raelly wanted to go, so they went and we got good money for them.
We will get an indicator of the true intent if we spend more on Hooper’s replacement than Hooper cost us.
Well the cheats have Media House but look who Lawell has CQN,guys on twitter and even KDS has been infiltrated.
The team is crying out for a CB,CM and a striker even Lenny himself has spoken about the squad being empty but to no avail. Profit first and fourmost. If we go out against the Khasaks due to injuries and no back up then Lawell must resign.
Not a happy fan.
Pfayr
Maximise our commercial position in a market which is stacked against a growth agenda.
That is what PL is paid to do and does well.
The challenge is lack of strategic direction beyond this.
hun skelper,
If that’s the case why did they allow overcrowding, why were the GB the only people having their access restricted ?
Canamalar
Absolutely bang on
Improving your team by selling your best players….utter nonsense
Burnley
Nice business talk …but…what has he done ??
Just in and have,nt check previous posts but saw that yesterday posters could not understand how Sevco could burn over £3m per month on operating expenses. Answer there not!
When CG paid over £6m to duff and phelps to take over rangers he obtained this money from spiv investors who would have been guaranteed a return I suspect of between 30 to 40 per cent. As soon as the IPO money was received in November ( I know not £22m ) that return would have been immediately paid to the Spivs into their bank accounts ,probably within 24 hrs of the close of the IPO.
There is no way these Spivs were going to rely upon them getting their return via selling on their shares. The money paid to them would no doubt be shown in Sevco accounts as loans which of course they would not be expected to repay.No doubt the companies that these loans were paid to have now been liquidated!
So the Spivs have already received their return thus the massive decrease in the bank account. The next stage will be for Sevco to go into administration but more likely liquidation!
All the focus on the share price is a total red herring. The Spivs wanted their money up front and were never going to rely upon selling their shares.Would you rely upon fat Sally Sally making Sevco a success.
In the words of Dick Emery as regards the Spivs ” You are awful but we like you!”
Hunskelper,
The Uefa banner was not the Green Brigade – fact.
The GB had met the club and thought they were working towards satisfying the clubs concerns regarding the health and safety concerns.
The section was shut without any prior warnings, and remember their are more than the GB sit in section 111.
gebhoy
Auldheid,
Jam tomorrow.
Mad Mitch
2005 concerns were the very real ones around stemming haemorrhage of cash vs no realistic opportunity of growth beyond current revenue steams which at post Seville Larsson levels was unlikely.
At the time the boat with the opportunity to cling to a championship lifeline with caveats had already sailed with a certain Stuart Regan at the helm ironically.
Ten Men won The League
whitey bulger,
gangster,drug dealer,rat,murderer and Oh I nearly forgot great pal of Joe Cahill
Pfayr @ 19.05
It will be interesting to see the accounts when they come out.
What will be the response if we are staring to generate a surplus with the bank?
One thing is that the wages are being tightly controlled.
We must still be working to a basic football wage bill of £25mill.
Bonuses, loan fees and wages will add to it but I think we are still running a tight ship.
Interesting to see how the JL situation pans out.
High wages and a low appearance ratio.
Make or break this season?
Whitey
http://www.irishcentral.com/news/FBI-agent-gave-Whitey-Bulger-explosives-to-send-to-IRA-216341761.html
Auldheid
Interesting thoughts indeed on how to help the Irish support. It’s good to hear some outside the box thinking on the subject. Also agree with your thoughts on Sky.
Traditionalist88
Yes indeed the Irish CSCs are going strong and were out in strength on Saturday. Many of the guys never miss a game at CP which is amazing when you consider the travel costs and time involved. It will be interesting to hear what Paul Larkins thoughts are to help.
Marti
Hunskelper,
by shutting the section without any prior warning i mean after the meeting the GB had with club officials after the Monchengladbach game.
gebhoy
Quantum
Loving the simple truth.
Mike in Toronto
19:07 on
12 August, 2013
You have identified a key issue.
Interestingly I have been making exactly your point inside the club and I hope have at least got them thinking about it.
What is Celtic’s goal? How will they get there. What can everyone do to contribute to that goal?
It is the absence of knowing that creates the vacumn that imaginations rush to fill. It is the absence of knowing that creates the dark corners in which mistrust thrives and it is mistrust that fuels imaginations.
Lets put another scenario on the table….
If we had lost to helsingborgs this time last year. .. no £22m cl cash . ….. where would we be today
Victor would not have got us £12m without the cl games to showcase in…. maybe £7m … hooper would have went in january for £4m
So I guess we would have raked in £28m less in 2013 .
Champions league is essential for our future … we need to make the group stages for the money and the prestige it brings .
The big problem as I see it is the empty seats. Celtic rely on the support, it is by far our biggest income. If we can’t fill the stadium on flag day then this is a huge problem.
The support are losing interest, this is a fact. The current strategy is no working from a spectator point of view, the fans want and need to be excited.
Dress it up what ever way you want, the empty seats do not lie.
Celtic provide an escape for a lot of people, it cannot simply be an executive tool were successes is measured purely by profit and loss columns.
There are dreams and hopes attached to this club, when there is an opportunity, and only then, I believe the job of the board is to produce the goods for the support.
I believe that that opportunity exists just now. The supporters have backed the club is ST’s and I see many new jerseys floating about Glasgow. We are guaranteed European football till Christmas, we are in the best financial shape ever.
If the board choose not to do something for the support then what’s the point?.
HailHail
WitS
The vast majority of weapons sent from the States to the IRA went through Bulger.
Mike in Toronto
Maybe you’re right. Maybe when DD first invested he hoped to get Celtic into the EPL or UEFA to expand the CL to a pan European league. If so he will have been disappointed by the lack of movement and the regression of the SPL as the EPL hyper-inflates.
He is probably rich enough to view this setback philosophically, but not rich enough to treat us like an oil-sheik or oligarch. I reckon the current plan is just what Paul suggests above.
For myself I enjoy arguing over whether this player or that player is worth this or that but I generally understand the reasoning behind player decisions even when I don’t agree with particulars.