The dramatically rising Celtic share price

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At the time of writing the Celtic ordinary share price is sitting at 68p.  For more than a year before the Rangers International share price was announced last month the price of Celtic shares never left the thirties.  There has been considerably conjecture on why this is, which is probably worth some comment.

Rangers International’s (RI) opening share price of 70p valued the company at around £50m.  By contrast, Celtic, who are and always have been, a top flight club, and who are in the financially rewarding Champions League, were valued at around £34m.  On an initial pass, Celtic looked undervalued.

There are a few caveats to this story worth telling before you empty your holiday fund on the latest batch of Dutch tulips.  Since Fergus McCann took over in 1994 Celtic have only paid dividends on preference shares, which the FSA require the club to regard as debt, not equity.  No dividends have ever been paid on the ordinary shares and there appears to be no appetite among shareholders for this to change.

Celtic shares are also particularly illiquid – very few are available for sale at any point in time.  When even a small surge of new buyers enter an illiquid market, without a corresponding rise in the number of sellers, a share price can be bid up considerably.  Consider a stable average of 10 buyers and 10 sellers each day of a stock with 29,000 shareholders suddenly changing to 20 buyers and 10 sellers.  The price would rocket despite no change in the fundamentals.

The possibility of Celtic playing in a domestic league beyond Scotland has again been on the agenda.  Such an outcome would radically change the financial prospects of the club and is likely to have a considerable impact on the share price, but this remains no more than a talking point at the moment.  Investors should regard this potential outcome as speculative.

Rangers International attracted considerable investment from organisations seeking a level of financial return which supports that £50m valuation.  We can speculate what percentage return they will expect but the RI board have been explicit on their intention to produce a financial return.

I’ll not be investing in either company at the moment.  Celtic will not pay a dividend on equity shares (which in years to come will evidently be a really good thing) and although I am sure Rangers International’s board will deliver an on-target return for investors (which in years to come will evidently be a really good thing), they appear negatively surprised by recent news on structural change in the Scottish game.  Always take professional advice before investing more than you can afford to lose.

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1,221 Comments

  1. A Ceiler Gonof Rust on

    The reporter at mordor said on the radio earlier the atmosphere was strage, flat, dead.

     

     

    What does he expect with 40’000 zombies in attendance?

  2. Its ironic that the company that owns the company that owns that team are called Rangers international … When they will not be playing international football for some time

  3. Cananalar – Alex Thomson says SF Cllr told him youths attacked the marchers but its to be expected after 5 weeks of provocation.

     

     

    Somebody is trying to balance things up and as I think about that more it becomes more worrying.

  4. Charles Green bought some of the assets of the now-dead Rangers at a time when Rangers were still alive, in the throes but not quite dead yet.

     

     

    Charles Green founded a club, Sevco. He asked to have the SPL share of a different club, Rangers. The SPL gave that share to Dundee. Snubbed Sevco subsequently applied for and, controversially (as they didn’t meet the criteria) were given, a place in SFL division three.

     

     

    Later, Rangers died, but when Sevco started its playing career in the Ramsden’s, in SFL3 and in the Scottish Cup in September (when all the SFL3 teams start), Rangers hadn’t died yet. Sevco and Rangers were two different clubs. If Rangers’ SPL share had been part of the set of assets sold to Charles Green, he wouldn’t have had to ask to have it transferred later.

     

     

    The Rangers SPL share transferred to Dundee from Rangers, not from Sevco and not from the SPL or from a black hole. An existing (although at that time not kicking a ball anywhere) club, Rangers, transferred the SPL share to another existing club, Dundee. You cannot acquire an SPL share from a holding co, an oldco, a newco or a Sevco. Only from a club.

     

     

    Sevco were by this time plying their trade further down the reaches of Scottish football and were, as mentioned, lucky to be there.

     

     

    When are we meant to believe Sevco became Rangers? How did Sevco become Rangers, by what process? Where is the announcement that tells us and explains to us how two separate clubs became one club?

     

     

    Green’s Sevco no more became Rangers with the transfer of some of Rangers’ assets than Dundee became Rangers with the transfer of another Rangers asset, the SPL share. It did not happen.

  5. •-:¦:-•** -:¦:- sparkleghirl :¦:-.•**• -:¦:-• on

    The Boy Jinky

     

     

    Oh, I don’t know – today’s game was a kind of cross-border encounter wasn’t it?

  6. Sparkles

     

     

    Ok i concede that point … And i suppose when they cross the sea to.play in ulster or parade in the streets … Thats hunternational fitba as well

  7. Afternoon bhoys and ghirls this post if for those that frequent the twittersphere. I’m good friends with WWE wrestling legend and current commentator JBL, John Layfield, he was commentating a couple of weeks ago on Monday Night Raw on a match involving a Scottish wrestler Drew Macintyre and he asked me for some Scottish cultural refernces to drop into commentary, as Mr. Macintyre is portrayed as a bad guy I brought to his attention the plight of the Orcs and how it has proven to be a sense of great mirth for all of Scotland other than the hoardes or mordor and he mentioned in commentary that Macintyre was a fan of Glasgow Rangers who went bust this year. Needless to say he’s been deluged with tweets from the huns slating him for daring to mention their old team and what would he as an American know about it. I feel bad that i’ve exposed him to this level of abuse and to be fair he’s smacking them about quite well on twitter but if you have an account please follow @jclayfield and show him some support from the celtic family.

  8. Now Alex Thomson says Willie Frazer told protesters at City Hall they had a right to defend themselves if attacked.

     

     

    a) that’s incitement and I think its worthy of arrest

     

     

    b) it makes today’s events look premeditated and facilitated by PSNI

  9. Neil canamalar Lennon hunskelper extrordinaire on

    weeminger,

     

    The nationalists need to be demanding their elected representatives find out why the demonstrators are being allowed the freedom of the city.

     

    Why are limits not being imposed ? what plans do the security authorities have for reducing the impact on the general publics right to go about their business ?

  10. sixtaeseven - 4 fouls 4 cards & penalty, a day in the life on

    The nearest they’ll get to playing international fitba is going across the border to Berwick.

  11. Professor Green on

    a ceiler gonof rust

     

     

     

    The zombies attendances are starting to drop. There were plenty of empty seats in all 4 stands and estimates of around 35k. They gave the attendance of 44k odd.

     

     

    Cue much backslapping and high fivin at been the highest uk attendance.

     

     

    Unbelievably deluded.

     

     

    The attendances will drop considerably over the next few months especially at the prospect of playing the same teams next season.

     

     

    Bad times are coming for the latest Franchise at Ibrox

  12. StumptownBhoy-(ex-SanDiegoBhoy)For_wee_Oscar on

    “Football’s Next Star” starts here in the US this evening on Fox Soccer Channel at 6.30 Eastern.

     

     

    The entire season is devoted to the Celtic Academy and features dozens of young lads taken through a series of trials, in an attempt to get signed.

     

     

    There is an in depth look at the academy, the coaches and interviews with various representatives of the club, edited in such a fashion to promote the history and heritage of Celtic FC.

     

     

    From what I’ve seen so far it will be excellent exposure for Celtic here in US, which I have always maintained is a sleeping giant in terms of support and revenue for us. Also, with our matches coming up with Juventus this couldn’t have happened at a better time.

     

     

    Many happy returns Awe_Naw on your birthday!

  13. sixtaeseven – 4 fouls 4 cards & penalty, a day in the life

     

    17:11 on

     

    12 January, 2013

     

    The nearest they’ll get to playing international fitba is going across the border to Berwick.

     

    ==============================

     

     

    not forgetting their trips across the water for fund raisers against the “fleg protesters”!

  14. Snake Plissken on

    What would be good would be if some undercover Celt working at the Big Hoose could get a sneaky camera phone pic or two of the (ahem) crowds and post them online then the best supported voteless losers could be smacked down.

     

     

    Oh wait, the media would ignore it anyway. They cannot annoy their remaining customers.

  15. Here’s one for the MSM.

     

     

    El Mundo Deportivo ran an article today talking about goalkeepers Barcelona are meant to be looking at. Pinto, who has hardly played since signing from Celta de Vigo in 2008 (Wiki says 17 games), recently signed a one-year extension to his contract. He is 37. Víctor Valdés hasn’t renewed and discussions are ongoing.

     

     

    So, El Mundo Deportivo turned its attention to possible signings, if not now, then soon.

     

     

    The article mentions De Gea, Stekelenburg, Neuer and Guaita of Valencia as the most likely. But there is a dark horse in there, Marc-Andre Ter Stegen of Borussia Moenchengladbach.

     

     

    You may be surprised to know that Fraser Forster doesn’t get a mention in the article after his performances against Barcelona in the group stages and his being nicknamed La Gran Muralla, the Great Wall in this very paper.

     

     

    If you are, you will not be surprised that his name crops up rather a lot in the comments readers have left at the bottom. One from someone called Juancho at 16.19 this afternoon sums it up.

     

     

    He says: “Like lots of you are saying on here, I think Celtic’s Forster, 24 years old, is a goalie with a great future, and would be cheap. There’s no need to spend a fortune on a goalie. I didn’t know who he was until he played against Barça, but since then I’ve looked at a lot of information about him and truth is he is a crack goalkeeper. Tall, strong, young, agile and quick, everything Barça need.”

  16. all this talk of hooper leaving does my head in, if he wishes to leave then so be it, whats the point if questioning his motivation, its his life his choice. i would like to keep him until the end of this season but celtic will go on regardless. i would hate to loss him for nothing as our policy requires that we get a return on him.

     

     

    if you wish to leave then thankyou for the goals and the fee, its been fun. same applies to all players employed by celtic.

     

     

    hail hail

  17. 67Heaven ... I am Neil Lennon..!!.. Ibrox belongs to the creditors on

    Graham Spiers is saying that the new setup does disadvantage this new team………he isn’t, however, stating why greengo is getting so angry…….because it scuppers’ or seriously impacts, his personal financial plans……which his investors will asking questions about….LOL

  18. The Moon Bhoys on

    I’ll be gobsmacked if Gary Hooper ends up at Norwich, he’s surely more ambitious than that, Norwich for goodness sake! We don’t need the money thanks to our Champions League efforts so why would we sell him? Because its good business? No its not, he’s our top goal scorer and without his goals our season so far would look a helluva lot different. If one of the EPL top 6 came in for him then fair enough, but Norwich are a yoyo club, there’s nothing for him there apart from maybe more money, and who’s to say we cant match their offer.

  19. •-:¦:-•** -:¦:- sparkleghirl :¦:-.•**• -:¦:-• on

    Moon Bhoys, I agree, he should aim higher but there will be an agent somewhere trying to sell Norwich to him just as much as selling him to Norwich.

  20. Celtic are two games away from the last 8 of the Champions League, I`m sure Gary will be wanting to sample that challenge before heading off to wet Monday nights at the Brittania or Loftus Road or St Mary`s…

     

     

    Hoops to score against Juve..

  21. 67Heaven ... I am Neil Lennon..!!.. Ibrox belongs to the creditors on

    BRS….. sevco fan states if they win FAIRLY, they should be promoted…….well, there is a club recently liquidated, which won a good few leagues UNFAIRLY……..silly billy

  22. GlasgowCelticChampions! on

    Anyone remember the quote from Traynor and Green about thems losing the history if the cva is rejected and the enter liquidation? Can someone please repost the gist of it please!!

  23. 67Heaven ... I am Neil Lennon..!!.. Ibrox belongs to the creditors on

    Meant to type earlier ….”Graham Spiers is saying that the new setup DOESN’T disadvantage this new team”

  24. notthebus

     

    18:00 on

     

    12 January, 2013

     

     

    George Peat making a complete fool of himself on shortbread

     

     

     

    The man’s a complete & utter incompetent fool! defies belief he was the President of the SFA all he has added to the discussion of reconstruction is how Regan and Doncaster handled the sevco implosion

  25. Der Hun is getting desperate :))

     

    Media storm to help them , yet if they won sraight promotions it was 3yrs away from us at the top anyway,

     

    Me thinks they are in big Big BIg BIG trouble,

     

    Has Charlie boy been given and been making prmises that now are in ruins (ian black ” i will be playing in the SPL in 2yr”)?

  26. The Spirit of Arthur Lee on

    The man who had the first hand transplant in England is devastated, his boaby has rejected it!

  27. GlassTwoThirdsFull on

    McIntyre hurting BADLY. Everyone who comes on he tries to goad them into saying they won’t go back to another game if the proposals go through.