The dramatically rising Celtic share price

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At the time of writing the Celtic ordinary share price is sitting at 68p.  For more than a year before the Rangers International share price was announced last month the price of Celtic shares never left the thirties.  There has been considerably conjecture on why this is, which is probably worth some comment.

Rangers International’s (RI) opening share price of 70p valued the company at around £50m.  By contrast, Celtic, who are and always have been, a top flight club, and who are in the financially rewarding Champions League, were valued at around £34m.  On an initial pass, Celtic looked undervalued.

There are a few caveats to this story worth telling before you empty your holiday fund on the latest batch of Dutch tulips.  Since Fergus McCann took over in 1994 Celtic have only paid dividends on preference shares, which the FSA require the club to regard as debt, not equity.  No dividends have ever been paid on the ordinary shares and there appears to be no appetite among shareholders for this to change.

Celtic shares are also particularly illiquid – very few are available for sale at any point in time.  When even a small surge of new buyers enter an illiquid market, without a corresponding rise in the number of sellers, a share price can be bid up considerably.  Consider a stable average of 10 buyers and 10 sellers each day of a stock with 29,000 shareholders suddenly changing to 20 buyers and 10 sellers.  The price would rocket despite no change in the fundamentals.

The possibility of Celtic playing in a domestic league beyond Scotland has again been on the agenda.  Such an outcome would radically change the financial prospects of the club and is likely to have a considerable impact on the share price, but this remains no more than a talking point at the moment.  Investors should regard this potential outcome as speculative.

Rangers International attracted considerable investment from organisations seeking a level of financial return which supports that £50m valuation.  We can speculate what percentage return they will expect but the RI board have been explicit on their intention to produce a financial return.

I’ll not be investing in either company at the moment.  Celtic will not pay a dividend on equity shares (which in years to come will evidently be a really good thing) and although I am sure Rangers International’s board will deliver an on-target return for investors (which in years to come will evidently be a really good thing), they appear negatively surprised by recent news on structural change in the Scottish game.  Always take professional advice before investing more than you can afford to lose.

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  1. CQN Saturday Naps Competition – Week 23 Results & Standings

     

     

    Magnificentseven was the sole winner last week, and napped his 3rd winner in a row (Melodic Rendezvous @7/2)

     

     

    +£18.35 green T (9)

     

    +£10.00 Rockon Neil Lennon (8)

     

    +£ 2.13 Sixteen roads to Golgotha (4)

     

    +£ 0.88 Magnificentseven (4)

     

    +£ 0.00 voguepunter (2)

     

    -£ 0.50 What is the Stars (4)

     

    -£ 1.30 BULL67 (4)

     

    -£ 2.00 Valentine’s Day (3)

     

    -£ 3.50 fleagle1888 (3)

     

    -£ 5.50 Che (2)

     

    -£ 7.50 Bada Bing (2)

     

    -£ 9.00 Cathal (2)

     

    -£12.50 Som mes que un club (2)

     

    -£13.80 TheBarcaMole (2)

     

    -£14.97 hunza rugli (2)

     

    -£15.50 MHARK67 (2)

     

    -£16.38 leftclicktic (2)

     

    -£18.00 gerry_bhoy (1)

     

    -£18.50 tommytwisttommyturns (1)

     

    -£20.00 Glen (1)

     

    -£23.00 bobbymurdoch’s winklepickers

     

    -£23.00 gourockbhoy

     

    -£23.00 Raymac

     

     

    *No selections – gerry_bhoy, Glen, Raymac, TheBarcaMole

     

    Non-Runners – leftclicktic

     

     

    Cheers, fleagle1888

  2. Neil canamalar Lennon hunskelper extrordinaire on

    If hooper wants to go, then the sooner the better, that goes for Vic too, if they don’t want to be here then they can go fourth and multiply

  3. You are quite correct Kilbowie there are a number of variations to it. Another version of the 3rd verse is,

     

     

    You’ll not get these colours, the young maiden said,

     

    You’ll not get these colours until, I am dead,

     

    For I’ll fight by the Glen side, it remains to be seen,

     

    but I’ll die for these colours White, Orange & Green.

     

     

    also the Final Line is often sung as

     

    “Coz They Murdered Tom Ashe for the Flag of Sinn Fein”

     

     

    Tom Ashe was a volunteer who fought in the Easter Rising, He was sentenced to Death after the rising but this was commuted to Life Imprisonment. Following intervention from the US Government, he was released, but was rearrested in 1917 fro making a seditious speech, he went on Hunger Strike seeking POW status (Sounds familiar), the British Authoroties tried a force feeding procedure early in the Hunger Strike which killed him.

  4. Breaking news

     

     

    Canadian captain signs for scottish club

     

     

    Ross county … Seem to draw bigger names than sevco

  5. Kayal33

     

     

    I take the story with a pinch of salt as it flies in the face of everything PL said on Wednesday.

  6. Canamalar, am with you on this one, if someone doesnt want to play

     

    for Celtic then see ya, don’t let the door hit you on the way out

  7. Ten.men

     

     

    This time last year the msn were running with grant holt … Captain and top scorer … To oldco for £500k

  8. The comment to which Kayal 33 referred:

     

     

    “Mariners coach Graham Arnold endorsed Rogic’s imminent move to Celtic, who are the most successful club in Scottish history and preparing for a Champions League knockout tie with Italian heavyweights Juventus next month.”

     

     

    Excellent!

     

     

    JJ

  9. Alasdair MacLean on

    The Boy Jinky,

     

     

    Caithness, Sutherland and Ross-shire go back a long way with Canada mind…..many of our ancestors went there and many married a local girl!

  10. Starry

     

     

    When nfl said they were off to spain for some r & r I missed the comment about book a rest ;-)

  11. Alasdair

     

     

    Smart move for immigration ..must say im surprised they were all allowed to marry same canadian girl ;-) )))))))

  12. I see the latest jumped up nobody Des McKeown (who?) writing this morning how there is no such thing as a meaningless game and “shame on” us fans who think so.

     

     

    When will these idiots ever learn that its not about the players its about the fans.

     

     

    Five a side pitches are crammed every week because we all love to play football. I don’t see a ring of people surrounding the pitches watching though.

     

     

    If you ever unsure about anything, listen to an ex-pro then take the opposite stance ,you wont be far from the truth

  13. Alasdair MacLean on

    The Boy Jinky,

     

     

    The locals weren’t that keen on immigants either. Who is?

     

    She was a happy girl though.

  14. .

     

     

    Kayal33..

     

     

     

     

    Mariners coach Graham Arnold endorsed Rogic’s imminent move to Celtic, who are the most successful club in Scottish history and preparing for a Champions League knockout tie with Italian heavyweights Juventus next month.

     

     

     

     

    Kayal33..

     

     

    I’m 99% Sure a Certain KDS Poster had a Hand (Fenian) in the Wording of that Article..

     

     

    Summa

  15. summa of sammi….

     

     

    13:43 on

     

    12 January, 2013

     

    …………….

     

    Got 2 of them sos, one each.

     

    They’re well used in our hoose.

     

    V

  16. Neil canamalar Lennon hunskelper extrordinaire on

    Summa..,

     

    Just think, they are so stupid they will harass the guy and attribute the words to him :o) poor bugger.

  17. Stevebhoy.

     

     

    After reading the new version of the heralds obituary of the late Hugh adams,do you think there has been a landslide of complaints from all sections.

     

    He was obviously a clever forward thinking man that had no time for murrays meglamaniac ways.

     

    Pity Celtic didn’t manage to persuade him to join us.hh

  18. Further confirmation that SevCo will indeed start in the league of 18

     

     

    From Jim Spence on BBC

     

     

    Current top flight rules requiring 6000 covered seats and under-soil heating are to be scrapped under the proposed new set-up for Scottish football.

     

    And artificial surfaces could appear in the top league, with two clubs contemplating installing them.

     

    Plans seen by BBC Scotland will reduce the licensing criteria for clubs in the two top divisions to bronze level.

     

    That means “adequate pitch protection”, namely pitch covers, will replace the need for under-soil heating.

     

    There will also be the possibility of short-term derogation for those clubs who currently fall short of meeting bronze level; meaning they could compete in the top leagues while bringing their facilities up to standard.

     

    PROPOSED SCOTTISH LEAGUE RESTRUCTURE

     

    SPL proposal is for a 12-12-18 structure

     

    Top two leagues to split into three leagues of eight after 22 matches then play a further seven home and seven away games

     

    Leagues will be called Premier Division, Championship and National League

     

    Top eight teams to play for title and European places; middle eight to contest promotion and relegation in and out of Premier Division; bottom eight to decide who drops into National League

     

    11 out of 12 SPL clubs need to vote in favour of plans, while the proposal requires approval of 23 out of 30 SFL clubs

     

    One league body to replace SPL and SFL

     

    The Scottish Premier League and Scottish Football League, in conjunction with the Scottish Football Association, have struck a merger deal in principle that would see a 12-12-18 set-up complete with mid-season splits and end-of-term play-offs.

     

    Speaking earlier this week, Raith Rovers chairman Turnbull Hutton hinted at a relaxation on stadium regulations.

     

    “The dawning reality from the SPL is that the criteria for stadiums are going to have to be tempered with some realism,” he said.

     

    “There has been millions wasted on infrastructure for a bankrupt football set-up just to tick a box on the old SPL check-list.”

     

    It has also emerged that the club winning the title will give up £315,000 from their prize money which presently stands at £2.7m, with the runners-up also surrendering a substantial sum from the £2.4m currently on offer.

     

    The biggest clubs have agreed to the cuts to fund the proposed changes and ensure a fairer distribution of cash throughout the divisions.

     

    The winners of this season’s First Division will pick up £68,000.

     

    If the proposed changes are voted through, the winners of the new second tier stand to earn £387,000.

     

    To offset the financial hardship of relegation, given the possibility of up to four clubs being relegated each season, an advance of £200,000 will be made to each club dropping out of the top league at the beginning of the first season following their relegation.

     

    After two rounds of fixtures which are due to culminate with New Year derbies, the top two leagues would split into three sections of eight for two further rounds of matches.

     

    The top eight will contest the title and European places, the middle eight would play-off to decide which sides would start the following season in the first or second tier and matches in the bottom eight would determine which sides were to be relegated to the bottom tier of 18.

     

    The winners of the “play-off” eight and the “Championship” eight will receive a trophy or a pennant.

     

    The clubs finishing first and second in the National league of 18 will be promoted, with the four teams below involved in play-offs with those finishing fifth and sixth in the Championship eight.

     

    From season 2014/15, the bottom two from the National league will be relegated and replaced by sides from an unspecified set-up that will involve the Highland League, Juniors and the South of Scotland League.

     

    The document outlining the changes says: “These proposals… will ensure a dramatic, exciting league with meaningful matches at all levels and at all points of the season.”

     

    The proposed voting structure in the new set-up would see Premier clubs having three votes, with those in the Championship receiving two votes and National league clubs getting one vote.

     

    An independent executive chairman would have the casting vote in the event of a stalemate.

     

    July League Cup games are also under consideration, with the league programme to start at the beginning of August.

     

    The SFL will put the plans to its clubs later this month, with 22 of the 29 full members needing to give their formal approval. Rangers, as associate members, do not have voting rights.

     

    SPL clubs, who put forward the 12-12-18 blueprint, will also have a formal vote, with an 11-1 majority required.

  19. Alasdair MacLean on

    Me & my mate went to see a Muslim tribute band last night.

     

    They were called “Bomb Jovi”, & they were brilliant.

     

    Their gig’s closing song “Living on a Prayer Mat”, almost brought the house down.

     

    Then this Muslim bloke started bragging about how he had the entire Koran on DVD.

     

    We feigned interest and I asked him, “Can you burn me a copy?”

     

     

    Well that was when the trouble started….

  20. TheOriginalSadiesBhoy on

    I noted that the Herald obituary on Hugh Adam was written by his daughter. A case of the family striking back.

  21. The fact that the latest Hugh Adam Obituary in the Herald appears to have been written by his daughter, doesn’t make it any less worthy a tribute to the last honest man who served that ex-club.

  22. The Battered Bunnet on

    OSB

     

     

    Horrid situation in which she found herself, but goodness, she didn’t step off the bus and miss the pavement!

  23. theoriginalsadiesbhoy,

     

     

    Hadn’t seen your post,simultaneous typing,but, I agree.

     

     

    I assume the family demanded the right of reply.

     

     

    Shameful Herald in the first instance.

  24. Kayal 33-Where did you see link to Greek striker mate? I think PL will be working to move Hooper on now.£8 mil now or about £3mil in 5 months time?

  25. Ten Men Won The League

     

    14:22 on 12 January, 2013

     

     

    £200k for failure. Relegation will be a more attractive option for many teams than staying in a nonsensical top league structure that the fans won’t turn out to watch (and pay for).

  26. Gene's a Bhoys name on

    Mrs gene has told me we are off to see some red white and blue banner waving smelly hoardes later – not sevco said i no les miserables said she.

     

     

    RelievedCSC

  27. !!Bada Bing!!

     

    14:32 on 12 January, 2013

     

     

    There was a link on Thursday to a German newspaper on the KDS Transfer Rumour thread linking us with Kostas Mitroglu of Olympiakos. 24 year old Greek international, out of contract in the summer.

     

    Probably more nonsense from agents.