Football must wait for the financial final act

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Interesting financial news from Deloitte that FA Premier League clubs turned a profit in season 2013-14, the first time the combined results of the top 20 clubs in England have been in the black for 15 years.  The reason for the £190m surplus was a 29% increase in revenue, largely as a result of the-then new TV deal, which runs until summer 2016.  Wages rose only 20% that year.

Clubs will be happy to have stemmed the losses, although the first year of a new TV deal is always their high water mark, but the underlying bubble remains a problem.  Income cannot continue to rise at heady double-digit rates, shareholders of BskyB and BT will eventually see to that, despite the fact that next big boost from TV is already confirmed for season 2016-17.

The play to watch is not if or when a dysfunctional football sector gets its act in order, it’s when an almost-as dysfunctional broadcasting industry reaches equilibrium.  We’ve discussed before Sky’s absolute need for Premier League rights to secure their place as a prime broadcaster.  BT, Virgin, Netflix and others are busy eating into their movie, news and entertainment broadcast market.  It’s this need which is driving revenue towards the English Premier League.  Without English Premier League football, Sky are vulnerable.

Sky took the first step towards passing the financial pain of their new deal down the line to consumers this month in the form of a price increase.  The company have successfully done this before, many low income families are now paying £70 per month for satellite TV, and subscriber losses after previous increases have been almost non-existent.

Millions of people have high stakes skin in this game: subscribers, Sky and BT executives, their respective shareholders, Premier League clubs and the dependent ecosystem below them.  All the spinning plates have remained in the air, despite price increases through a recession, but one fundamental remains:

This is a bubble.

Speculators are confused when they only see a market inflate over a long period that it’s not a bubble.  The moment these TV deals become unaffordable to subscribers, or more likely, to the broadcasters, the bubble will burst.

Debts are high, profitability is here, but the underlying commercial pressures to stay in the league remain, so wage pressure will continue to eat away at available funds.  Those outside of the bonanza have to figure out how to compete for audience and players, while waiting on the final act.

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  1. What is the Stars on

    Robert tressell

     

    Labour has destroyed itself

     

    Never a truer word spoken

     

    Certainly in the Republic of southern eire

  2. Delaneys Dunky on

    Sipsini

     

     

    Ryan is a tradesman in a succesful fenian engineering company near you. When he was an apprentice he was earning more than his da. :)

  3. Roberttressel…

     

     

    That is what it is…100%…said it better than i ever could hope to…brilliant post….

  4. Delaneys Dunky on

    Almore

     

     

    The pleasure was mine spending time with a Baile Atha Cliath good guy.

  5. RobertTressell

     

     

    21:43 on 26 March, 2015

     

     

    The SNP leadership want a Tory government. Why wouldn’t they?

     

     

    A vote for the SNP makes it more likely that the Tories will have the most MPs after the election. That puts Cameron in pole position to be able to cobble together some arrangement that would allow him to form a government.

  6. Ernie LYNCH…im aYes supporter….ask me why i want a Tory Gov…cmon ask me……im sure you already know the answer….

  7. DD: I’m going to try and get over before the end of season. When WITS announces when he’ll prance around around George’s Square in his birthday suit I’ll be over that match:)

     

     

    Ronny in!

  8. What is the Stars on

    Almore

     

    The agreement/ threat/ bet was that if ronny won the treble i would stand naked in Georges square singing the fields of athenry, the following Saturday at 3 o clock

  9. DD,

     

     

    Was only joshing, your bhoys done really well, it’s heartbreaking watching a lot of our youth not getting a chance to learn a trade.

     

     

    Are you going for beer tomorrow with BMCUW?

  10. Never mind 3pm kick offs to draw the big crowds….seems like it’s WITS bits that’ll do the trick.

     

     

    That’s so wrong on so many levels.

     

     

    Keep walking Miss jackson. This sordid forum is no place for an innocent young lady like yourself.

     

     

    HH JamesGang

  11. WITS: Fair enough. Maybe you could have it filmed and then have it featured at the AICSC dinner. It could be turned into a good fundraiser. I hope you are working out:)

  12. Between all this Diamond Jackson stuff and the image of a naked WITS singing The Fields in Georges Square, I’m not going to sleep well tonight. See what happens on CQN when Celtic have no game at the weekend.

  13. BGX

     

     

    21:55 on 26 March, 2015

     

     

    ‘Ernie LYNCH…im aYes supporter….ask me why i want a Tory Gov…cmon ask me……im sure you already know the answer….’

     

     

    ###

     

     

    Sorry, when I said nats i should have said snp leadership.

     

     

    The nat leadership want Scotland to leave the UK.

     

     

    The Scottish people are more likely to support that objective if there’s a Tory government.

     

     

    That’s why the SNP leadership want a Tory government. And yes, they are conning you.

  14. What is the Stars on

    Cork celt

     

    Don’t worry I was going to protect my modesty with a discreetly placed. …sombrero

  15. So, the SC Final is on 30th May.

     

    I think we should arrange to have George Square cordened off the following Saturday, say around 3pm:-)

     

     

    I think a crowd will gather.

     

     

    :-)

  16. Ernie Lynch…of course you knew…good boy…conning me..doubt it…I Want A Tory gov for the Reason you laid out…its the fastest way to INDEPENDENCE….

  17. Delaneys Dunky on

    Sipsini

     

     

    When are you anything other than joshing. He is working every day of lent to pay for his summer holiday and Rock Festival tickets. 7 day weeks are no for me. ;)

  18. Dallas Dallas where the heck is Dallas

     

     

    Dingwall was involved in Scotland Rugby League for a while… an absolutely loathsome individual. The guy is an utter bigot obsessed with orangeism…. loyalism, northern ireland, accordion bands etc.

     

     

    He is mates with this guy, for any Edinburgh bhoys out there:

     

    http://www.theedinburghreporter.co.uk/2012/04/council-elections-2012-meet-the-candidates-mark-brown/

     

    They are cut from the same cloth. Brown used to previously upload orange parades etc on his youtube page, while standing for council electuions. He has now removed these

     

    after they attracted a few aggressive comments.

  19. Captain Beefheart on

    If he says ‘make no bones about it’ one more time, I will scream. His programme is malfunctioning.

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