Omission bias research and refs with grudges

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The SFA Head of Refereeing, John Fleming, spoke about the semi-final incident on Sunday, largely to protect his fraternity.  Referee Steven McLean made a huge error but Fleming said “I don’t think there was anyone in the ground who would have thought it was 100% a penalty and sending off until they had seen the replay.”

This flies in the face of the Celtic players who claimed for a penalty on the spot, the raised voices from thousands of Celtic supporters, and the shout from the TV commentator.  Fleming’s assertion is demonstrably untrue.

He is a man in a position of authority at the SFA.  He is allowed to have opinions, or to disagree with any club, but making untrue statements to protect his referees is a wholly inappropriate.  If is the standard referees are held to, no wonder we have problems.  Having asked for clarification on the refereeing error yesterday, I expect Celtic will be even keener on an explanation for Fleming’s incredulous comment.

I’ve linked here to a Stanford University report on Omission Bias in Sports.  The report finds that people are biased to favour inaction (i.e. don’t make a decision) over action (make a decision which will have a profound impact).

It’s an interesting concept which good refereeing guidance will account for.  They found that “For all sports, effect [is]stronger if game is close and weak when score is lopsided”.

Omission bias is what we should be looking for in Scottish football.  Evidence this video of former referee Kenny Clark, who while still officiating SPL games told an audience that he held a grudge against Celtic’s John Hartson and failed to award him a foul which he saw clearly enough to describe in some detail.

Unfortunately, no journalist has ever been able to contact Mr Clark to ask him about his grudges or omission bias.  If this was England, the media would not allow Clark to flaunt omission bias while defending it in others, he would be called to account.

See above, Sunday’s officials greeting each other on the pitch before kick off.  Before the dust settles on this one, some of us better learn a new handshake.  Those wanting real change at the SFA will have to fight for it.

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  1. I’m going to cut Leigh Griffiths some slack, as he went from hat-trick hero in one game, to abysmal in another.

     

     

    For me, Ronny needs to ensure his 2 natural wingers are on the park.. And that would be Forrest and GMS… Because only then will we give our centre forward half a chance in terms of supply / service.

  2. The citing of the Inverness player is a pretty clever move. Now they can claim none of the officials saw the incident and that is why the compliance officer had to step in. They use the compliance officer to retrospectively legitimise the referees blunder. “Now move along timmy the poor lad missed a cup final because of your whining”.

  3. Joe fillippis..

     

    Sorry..I hope he his simply not available for selection..

     

    If that puts it any better

  4. joe filippis haircut

     

     

    19:00 on 21 April, 2015

     

     

    He went down in my estimations when he slated the Celtic support the after the ‘dundee riot’ game even though he wasn’t at it.

  5. blantyretim is praying for the Knox family on

    If they never saw it what did Hun on the goal line say then??

  6. BT

     

    Auldheid@Auldheid ·

     

     

    @TheClumpany The Fat Lady has only begun to clear her throat.

  7. glendalystonsils on

    ruggygman

     

    19:15 on

     

    21 April, 2015

     

    I’m going to cut Leigh Griffiths some slack, as he went from hat-trick hero in one game, to abysmal in another.

     

     

    It was the fault of that 30 stone he put on in 4 days.

  8. Of course there are others that deserve the 2 barrels …

     

    But aside from Brown, Commons is the most experienced and longest serving players. Of the entire squad we needed a big performance from him on Sunday. Him more than anybody else should of been acutely aware of what Sunday meant, and the potential pitfalls.

     

     

    Yet every time he touched the ball, he put no focus or concentration in to what he was doing. Nothing short of a disgrace.

  9. Joe Filippis Haircut on

    hun skelper. Hes only interested in the money and doesnt care where it comes from in my opinion. H.H.

  10. Kris Commons scored 1st against Partick and Killie, yes he was not great on Sunday but he is always a goal threat.

  11. The SFA couldnt make a bigger arse of this if they tried, the ref cheats and not a peep from them but they’ll hammer the player hopefully the guy appeals and wins if any suspension is givien.

     

    Total stitch-up

  12. joe filippis haircut

     

     

    19:21 on 21 April, 2015

     

     

    And there’s guys in our support who call him a legend lol

  13. glendalystonsils on

    So Meekings is gutted that he’ll miss out on the chance of a SC medal?

     

    Aye, you and the whole Celtic squad son.

  14. Evening all. Good news re the Resolution 12 letter to UEFA.

     

     

    Any confirmation yet what’s happening with Guidetti’s disciplinary case? It is still listed on SFA website as due on 9th March with no update. I wrote to the SFA last week seeking clarification on whether it was heard or postponed, but no reply.

  15. Joe Filippis Haircut on

    hun skelper. Not in my book fella he is just another mercenary who played for Celtic but doesnt get us.Likes to play golf with his hun buddies and wont rock the boat.H.H.

  16. His touch is way out.. Doesn’t look fit to me…. Fat arse waddles about the park, and all I see him doing recently is sweeping that poncy quiff of his, on a constant basis.

     

    If he put as much attention on to his game, as he does his poncy quiff, then he might do better

  17. Paul Should Put up Another Article Regarding The News From Phil concerning the Work By AULDHEID @ CO…People Still Going on Regarding ICT…God ..Let it Go…Things Happening That Are Way More Important than an Unprovable Incident…Jeezo…

  18. Joe Filippis Haircut on

    BGX. We can fight on more than one front at a time there is no reason to drop the cheating in the ICT game we have to take it as far as we can.If all we do is get it in to the full glare of publicity maybe they will think twice next time.If there is progression on resolution 12 I will say well done to Auldheid but as yet nothing has happenned. H.H.

  19. Reports that after hearing Celtic have written to UEFA, ruffled feathers were seen coming out every window of the 6th floor at Hampden especially heavy out of Ogilvies are UNCONFIRMED.

     

    Till later all

  20. glendalystonsils on

    Annoyed as I am by ‘specsavergate’, I will be even more annoyed if we let it deflect us from securing 3 points tomorrow night.

     

    I hope the players can channel the sense of injustice we all feel. We can’t afford to feel sorry for ourselves.

  21. FAVOURITE UNCLE on

    BGX

     

     

    if I sendyou up a sweetn nifty and tip you 2 winners will you log off and watch the fitba.

     

     

    ps .tell your bhoy at THE MUNGO to stick in and study hard just look what happened to AULDHEID.and look what happened to me ………………….finished up workind with the likes of you.

  22. Evening Timland from a overcast hun free mountain valley.

     

     

    Internet been mainly down since last thursday, a right pain so it is.

     

     

    Just logged on to see the news about Res 12, I pray this is true.

     

     

    Auldheid, any chance of a mail from you re this.

     

     

    HH

  23. JFH…..ok ..I Trust That Guys Like Auldheid and Co have a lot of Proof..Im Sure They Have…Now…You Show Me One Just One bit of Proof that we were cheated in the ICT game…..Na..i wont even Bore Myself Again…Coz you Have None…And Neither does Anyone Else…So Keep on Moaning About Something Unprovable…if it Makes you Happy..

     

    Bless..

  24. Joe Filippis Haircut on

    BGX. Oh you of little faith so we might as well give up and forget all about ? Well that might be your way but it sure isnt mine. H.H.

  25. Fav Uncle…Off To watch Barca…You owe me a £50…Hope your Pal Auldheid nails They fkers D…i Really Do…

  26. 67Heaven .. CHALLENGING THE LIE ..I am wee Oscar...... Ipox belongs to the creditors on

    BGX

     

     

     

    19:44 on 21 April, 2015

     

     

    What a total erse you are….bless

  27. Jfh..My last post..off to watch Barca…..Unless you doing Some kinda Fancy Pillow Talk with the Ref or one of the other officials….Its UnProvable without Admission….Do You Understand…UNPROVABLE…..

  28. 67 heaven…Never thought of myself in those terms..You no doubt are an expert..I salute your expertise in Arses…Bless

  29. Joe Filippis Haircut on

    BGX. I would never like to be in the trenches with you as you would have surrendered before we got in. If you pursue a case and put pressure on it can be surprising what comes out. H.H.

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