Omission bias research and refs with grudges

984

The SFA Head of Refereeing, John Fleming, spoke about the semi-final incident on Sunday, largely to protect his fraternity.  Referee Steven McLean made a huge error but Fleming said “I don’t think there was anyone in the ground who would have thought it was 100% a penalty and sending off until they had seen the replay.”

This flies in the face of the Celtic players who claimed for a penalty on the spot, the raised voices from thousands of Celtic supporters, and the shout from the TV commentator.  Fleming’s assertion is demonstrably untrue.

He is a man in a position of authority at the SFA.  He is allowed to have opinions, or to disagree with any club, but making untrue statements to protect his referees is a wholly inappropriate.  If is the standard referees are held to, no wonder we have problems.  Having asked for clarification on the refereeing error yesterday, I expect Celtic will be even keener on an explanation for Fleming’s incredulous comment.

I’ve linked here to a Stanford University report on Omission Bias in Sports.  The report finds that people are biased to favour inaction (i.e. don’t make a decision) over action (make a decision which will have a profound impact).

It’s an interesting concept which good refereeing guidance will account for.  They found that “For all sports, effect [is]stronger if game is close and weak when score is lopsided”.

Omission bias is what we should be looking for in Scottish football.  Evidence this video of former referee Kenny Clark, who while still officiating SPL games told an audience that he held a grudge against Celtic’s John Hartson and failed to award him a foul which he saw clearly enough to describe in some detail.

Unfortunately, no journalist has ever been able to contact Mr Clark to ask him about his grudges or omission bias.  If this was England, the media would not allow Clark to flaunt omission bias while defending it in others, he would be called to account.

See above, Sunday’s officials greeting each other on the pitch before kick off.  Before the dust settles on this one, some of us better learn a new handshake.  Those wanting real change at the SFA will have to fight for it.

Want to do something good for the world, and for yourself?

Sign up for the Ben Nevis Huddle, which takes place on Saturday 13 June, raising money for your Foundation.  The Foundation will organise pretty much everything for you and keep you informed of what you need to know.  Time is running out to book, so get going now……….

Click Here for Comments >
Share.

About Author

984 Comments

  1. FAVOURITE UNCLE on

    Jobo Baldie

     

     

    how was POLLENSA?did you see ELVIS?? he is a tim from crookston.

  2. Margaret McGill:

     

     

    Accepting that there is some ‘truth’ in what you say, then one might be forgiven for thinking that level playing fields and sporting integrity have been ‘hung’ in limbo for the sake of a few Euro crumbs… indefinately?

     

     

    What price your leased proxy-soul my friends eh!?

     

     

    You can kill that which you love with kindness as well as another can do with evil.

     

     

    For evil to prosper….

  3. Favourite Uncle –

     

     

    Pollensa was great but Elvis free. Looking at Nerja for a week in July.

     

     

    Work calling…

  4. Here’s one reason why I think Res 12 is best pursued by shareholders. If necessary they can use legal avenues against the SFA. If the club does that it risks being kicked out of UEFA competitions.

  5. a light insanity on

    DD. I am aware of the origins of the name and always felt it identified with the victims rather than the oppressors.

  6. Geordie Munro on

    TT,

     

     

     

    Agreed

     

     

    I don’t think I’ve ever agreed with 2 posts in a row from you before now :)

     

     

     

    Bobby,

     

     

    Our refs are often punished. To say otherwise is wrong. Maybe they could be punished more severely?

  7. Regarding Meekings, it does not matter if he meant to handball (we know he did) and if ICT argue the case. His hand was in an unnatural position as per rules of the game. See below link if you can bare. So the SFA cannot administer a not proven verdict if they apply the rules. Await with interest.

     

     

    As for the boy being ‘mentally shattered’ by it all. Well that’s tough, if he didn’t handball he wouldnt have an issue with a suspension because he wouldn’t be in the final.

     

     

    http://m.bbc.com/sport/scotland/26159324

  8. FourGreenFields on

    hamiltontim

     

     

    I have been onto my MSP ( SNP ) over the last year or so regarding this bill and Police Scotland’s implementation of it .

     

    My last response from him claimed he was waiting on the review at the end of the year ( cop out ).

     

    I had also asked for a breakdown from Police Scotland as to the costs involved in the Gallowgate kettling incident and the subsequent court cases arising from it , a FOI was raised and I received a response yesterday from Police Scotland .

     

    They claim there were no additional costs involved in the incident as police were just deployed from other areas in the city to cover it ( BS if you ask me ). They conveniently ignored the part asking about the costs involved in bringing the subsequent failed cases to court , I will of course be chasing this up .

     

    Hope this helps .

  9. Marrakesh Express on

    I was brought up listening to my old man’s bent ref stories. It must have been chronic pre Stein. Over the last 50 years I could write an Argos Catalogue of honest mistakes.

     

    The 1970 Scottish cup final stands out with arch hun RH Davidson surpassing his previous worst to cheat Celtic on three instances. He’d one camera to put up with, no blogs and a fairly complaint msm, so although his performance that day went right into the ‘paranoid tims’ category, big Stein had Davidson ,Gordon and Syme’s card marked.

     

     

    McLean and Co on Sunday however, is probably the single most blatant act of cheating I’ve witnessed against my club.

  10. As someone who has opposed the SNP OB act in and out of Holyrood, I acknoledge the simple fact that this issue is not even registering a blip on the radar of the electorate, the over whelming majority of voters in Scotland don’t care, to be brutally honest they just don’t understand why Celtic fans sing songs related to the armed struggle in Ireland at football matches in the 21st century, the SNP are not under any pressure from the media or voters on the repeal of the OB act, and until that changes, I can’t see any repeal anytime soon

  11. aw-naw -no annoni

     

     

    Collective noun is a Handshake of masons. Very powerful together. Of we had Messi and Ronaldo in our line up on Sunday, the nauseous power of the handshake would still have prevailed. Always a sinister force in every aspect of life.

  12. blantyretim is praying for the Knox family on

    lionroars67

     

     

    they will never have my vote until they do

     

    and while they are at it they could find a catholic for their cabinet

  13. D(comedy

     

     

    “Unpopular I know, but i don’t believe that there was any conspiracy ”

     

     

    Unpopular with whom?

     

     

    Who has alleged a conspiracy? A forethought and agreed plan to effect action?

     

     

    Both Muir and MacLean agreed it was not a penalty. That is the extent of the accusation. That is the extent of the “conspiracy”, a term usually used by our enemies to demean the argument. You will find few posts on here alleging a conspiracy.

     

     

    A decision, borne of bias, now that is a different matter.

     

     

    P.S. Meekings did not employ any tricks, even if the refs were willing to be fooled. He blatantly moved his hand towards the ball and he knew he had been seen doing so as he turned immediately to see what Mr. Muir’s view had been. He was blatantly guilty and he and his team should have been punished.

  14. Lionsroar67

     

     

    I actually got up this morning and said to myself, I need to drop you a text, to see what your up to, need been on for a wee while

     

    Just saved me the text :-)

     

     

    Hope your well Bhud,

     

    Setting aside the Referee, Tactically got it wrong on Sunday – again ?

     

     

    Hail Hail

  15. We are the dominant team in Scotland. I think a lot of Refs here would just prefer us not to win too much. In the big decisions in the big games, if there is a modicum of doubt in their minds they give the decision against us.

     

    Whatever Muir or McLean did or didn’t see at the incident, they knew full well at half time that they had shafted us, was there any attempt at trying to give us a 50/50 decision in the second half in a tiny effort to make some amends? Naw, they kept giving the 50/50’s against us.

     

    Getting away from Refs, with the exception of Leigh Griffiths 20 minute show against Killie we have not played well in the last 5 games. We are back to our pre Christmas form. The establishment would just love if we were tanked tonight, ans “put in our place”.

     

    Huge, Huge game tonight, players and fans need to forget about mibbery for tonight at least and just concentrate on the job in hand.

  16. Burgas Hoops did the SB renewal have a cigarette style warning on it saying by buying this season ticket you are supporting institutional racism in scotland – football games are rigged?

     

     

    The SNP will never repeal the OB act – they are using it to keep timmy down, Its a vote winner in scotland.

  17. Marrakesh Express

     

     

    08:25 on 22 April, 2015

     

    ___________________

     

    I was brought up hearing virtually the same stuff as yer self

     

    the days when, Celtic had to put the ball in the net ‘5’ times

     

    before one counted…etc.

     

     

    But, I think Celtic lost the game on Sunday coz…they were

     

    mis-managed by Ronny. ICT played with 4-4-2…the Celtic Way

     

    …imho.

     

     

    Celtic are supposed to be the biggest team in the country – atm – but,

     

    playing with one striker suggests an, inferiority complex…imho.

     

     

    Also…the cheating-mibbery-bigotry-etc…is all part of the bag of being

     

    who we are…I say – “Bring it on!” – dont run away from it…be like Mr Stein,

     

    get on that pitch spreading the aura that – We Are Celtic – So, Go ahead

     

    Hun-punks….make our day!

     

     

    None of this…one striker rubbish…also, Ronny’s daftie substitutions annoyed me more than the penalty stuff which was, cancelled-out when ICT didny get a penalty.

     

     

    Neil Lennon said on the SSB last night that RD was, down to see him last week…before the game…also, NL started talking about the O## F### then I switched the radio off.

     

     

    Anyway – Hail Hail

  18. Corkcelt

     

     

    Not a popular sound on here, you hit the mark yesterday, we have been playing poorly for past 4 or 5 games, ( set aside last 30mins against Killie when we changed team set up)

     

    We need to get back playing with more purpose

     

    starting tonight, which will not be easy

     

     

    Hail Hail

  19. blantyretim is praying for the Knox family on

    Geordie

     

    aye the same one who said it was offensive to bless yourself

  20. FGF

     

     

    Good man for keeping at them mate. I’ve been on to several of them, as well as my own SNP MSP, to try to apply as much pressure as possible on them.

     

     

    As Celtic supporters, watch this space in the next few weeks.

     

     

    Lionroars 67

     

     

    Good morning my friend. I agree, largely it’s a nothing issue for the SNP which is why I think those who are interested or affected by it should be doing all they can to highlight it.

  21. BT We are all at Liberty to vote on whatever issues matter most to us as individuals, although the OB act is a piece of bad legislation, and personally I would like it to be repealed ASAP, I will be considering other issues which IMO are far more important when I vote in May in May

     

     

    I don’t believe the SNP are a sectarian party who discriminate against Catholics, the Catholic Church has officially stated that position on the SNP

  22. Kitalba

     

     

    There are good reasons.

     

     

    Weeminger gave one a page or so back and the other was given a couple of months ago on CQN.

     

     

    I’m on holiday, don’t have my laptop to do the searching but it’s there somewhere.

     

     

    That it has been necessary to plough this road is all the evidence needed about why a formal mechanism to bring about accountability in football is essential.

  23. Corkcelt. It is accepted that in fact in most countries the big teams tend to get the benefit of the doubt and get the big decisions. That doesnt make it right but there is empirical evidence of the crowds influencing decisions etc.

     

     

    However in scotland the opposite happens. Now isnt that fascinating! I wonder why!!

  24. BT

     

     

    They have one. The new cab sec for justice. He’s a decent guy too.

     

     

    HH jamesgang

  25. HH Cowiebhoy

     

     

    How are you and family all good I hope

     

     

    I agree with you lost the second half with far to many errors being committed, defensive blunders being chief among them, a recurring theme with RD’S teams in big games

  26. blantyretim is praying for the Knox family on

    L67

     

    I was at church and received the letter from the bishops, as you say we have our own minds now and don’t need to be lectured by the church on who we vote..

     

     

    I’m in pain and in a mood today so I will retire from the blog till my meds kick in..

  27. HT I wholeheartedly support those within the Celtic support fighting the OB act, personally I will continue to write to SNP politicians urging them to repeal, the fight goes on as it should.

  28. Bt

     

     

    Gies some of your meds bud!

     

    I’m lying flat oot with a bad back….

     

     

    Narky as hell so amur!

     

     

    HH jamesgang