Omission bias research and refs with grudges

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The SFA Head of Refereeing, John Fleming, spoke about the semi-final incident on Sunday, largely to protect his fraternity.  Referee Steven McLean made a huge error but Fleming said “I don’t think there was anyone in the ground who would have thought it was 100% a penalty and sending off until they had seen the replay.”

This flies in the face of the Celtic players who claimed for a penalty on the spot, the raised voices from thousands of Celtic supporters, and the shout from the TV commentator.  Fleming’s assertion is demonstrably untrue.

He is a man in a position of authority at the SFA.  He is allowed to have opinions, or to disagree with any club, but making untrue statements to protect his referees is a wholly inappropriate.  If is the standard referees are held to, no wonder we have problems.  Having asked for clarification on the refereeing error yesterday, I expect Celtic will be even keener on an explanation for Fleming’s incredulous comment.

I’ve linked here to a Stanford University report on Omission Bias in Sports.  The report finds that people are biased to favour inaction (i.e. don’t make a decision) over action (make a decision which will have a profound impact).

It’s an interesting concept which good refereeing guidance will account for.  They found that “For all sports, effect [is]stronger if game is close and weak when score is lopsided”.

Omission bias is what we should be looking for in Scottish football.  Evidence this video of former referee Kenny Clark, who while still officiating SPL games told an audience that he held a grudge against Celtic’s John Hartson and failed to award him a foul which he saw clearly enough to describe in some detail.

Unfortunately, no journalist has ever been able to contact Mr Clark to ask him about his grudges or omission bias.  If this was England, the media would not allow Clark to flaunt omission bias while defending it in others, he would be called to account.

See above, Sunday’s officials greeting each other on the pitch before kick off.  Before the dust settles on this one, some of us better learn a new handshake.  Those wanting real change at the SFA will have to fight for it.

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984 Comments

  1. :(

     

    I liked the Love will Tear us apart track as well

     

     

    Ma lack of knowledge, perhaps a good thing.

     

     

    Blissfully ignorant. Incoming call DD.

  2. Margaret McGill on

    When the Celts go up

     

    To lift the Scottish buck

     

    We’ll all be there

     

    We’ll all be there

     

    When the board cash in

     

    And pretend that we’re awe kin

     

    We’ll all be there

     

    We’ll all be there

     

    When the MIBS collude

     

    for our own good

     

    We’ll all be there

     

    We’ll all be there

     

    Until the Celts of might

     

    Wake up and smell the shite

     

    We’ll all be there

     

    We’ll all be there

  3. Delaneys Dunky on

    A Light Insanity

     

     

    Lifted from the Nazi prostitution camps for the troops. Their Joy Division.

  4. SFA boycotts are a waste of time. Our enemy sits at CP.

     

     

    No ST until we get justice.

  5. Hamiltontim

     

     

    Hopefully you know that I respect you as an intelligent , honest and faithful Celtic supporter.

     

     

    Like myself you support the team home and away.

     

     

    I don’t understand the logic in boycotting football matches to show our displeasure at poor refereeing decisions.

     

     

    I don’t agree with some of our fans who think that there is an organised conspiracy against Celtic.

     

     

    I believe that individuals have been biased against us.

     

     

    What would be the aims of any boycott ?

     

    How would success be measured?

     

    Is a boycott the best course of action to bring about change?

     

     

    I see this as a simple issue.

     

     

    We are always going to have human error .

     

    We shall always be at risk of individual bias and spite.

     

     

    How is best to reduce both issues?

     

     

    The one immediate way , would be an introduction of Video replays for match officials and where possible for these replays to be shown on screens and to TV audiences.

     

     

    The potential for a live commentary of the officials decisions should also be considered.

     

     

    It is done successfully in American football and to a lesser extent in English rugby.

     

     

    There must be a specific set of goals to be achieved by any protest.

     

     

    TT

  6. Neg Anon

     

     

    I agree re the boycott.

     

     

    I disagree that Celtic are to blame for McLeans biased or inept performance.

     

     

    I don’t even understand how you can come to that conclusion.

     

     

    I have one main angst with the board.

     

     

    They have no viable exit strategy out of Scottish football .

     

     

    TT

  7. BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS on

    TINYTIM

     

     

    Incompetent refs in those leagues are sanctioned. Ours aren’t,regardless of their standard.

     

     

    Once they’re in position they are impossible to dislodge. Typical behaviour of a destructive parasite.

  8. Margaret McGill on

    My 2 favourite celtic songs by Joy Division and Prince

     

    Dead souls and partying like it’s 1899

  9. BMCUWP

     

     

    I agree that performance should be rewarded.

     

     

    Good with incentive.

     

    Bad with disincentive.

     

     

    TT

  10. Margaret McGill on

    tinytim

     

     

    01:34 on 22 April, 2015

     

     

    Me too!

     

    I think players who have been great servants for Celtic should be sold at their peak as anything less could impact executive bonuses and salaries

  11. Margaret McGill on

    I traveled far and wide through prisons of the cross,

     

    What did you see there?

     

    The power and glory of sin,

     

    What did you see there?

     

    The blood of Christ on their skins,

     

    I traveled far and wide through many different times.

  12. Awe_Naw_No_Annoni_Oan_Anaw_Noo on

    From the photographic evidence of funny handshakes all round it would seem that we had a ??????? of Masons officiating the semi final on Sunday. A game that the treble hinged on.

     

     

    ????????=collective noun for a group of Masons.

     

     

    Now if it is not an orchestrated campaign , a few questions arise.

     

     

     

    How many Masons does ot take out of six chosen for it not to be orchestrated ?

     

     

    Maybe we can ask our good friend Phil Mc G to ask his good friend and “honourable man” John Fleming to answer these questions if the club is not asking.

     

     

    Masons are sleekit and sly. Sundays public handshakes were deliberate. They were an unashamed in your face warning about what was about to occur. The scheduling of games for Celtic a prelude. TheSevco

  13. Margaret McGill on

    After much deliberation I think the main thing that’s wrong with Scottish football is ……… awe who gives a rats vagina…

  14. Awe_Naw_No_Annoni_Oan_Anaw_Noo on

    contd.

     

     

    The sevco v baby huns possibly connected. A shot across the bows.

     

     

    The catalyst to all this overt cheating can only be guessed at. Something is happening in the background to get Celtic to back off even further.

     

     

    I SPECULATE that it has to do with DaveKings and Murrays fit and proper persons acceptance and Resolution 12.

     

     

    A financially neutered Ashley controlled Sevco is our boards preferred choice. I suspect. Our plc has always wanted its cake and eat it. Hence the silence on the 5 way agreement. Personally I will never forgive them for not slitting their throats with quiet satisfaction.

     

     

    Res 12 is a pain in the arse for all concerned. It will need resolved at local level. A few SFA heads to roll is all that would seem to be saught after at this stage. Nobody will want to involve UEFA.

     

     

    Anyways….until the whole shebang is transparent and fully accountable it will always be the same old. Same old.

     

     

    Make no mistake they would rather kill the professional game off in Scotland if it means their favourite club is not permanently ordained as being pre eminent.

     

     

    They cannot afford it just now, hence every dirty trick in the book is being used.

     

     

    It has all gone very quiet on the HMRC front, the BDO front, Craig Whyte, operation green hornet etc.

     

     

    Either something big is about to happen and Celtic plc with its billionaires and government cabinet connected operators are playing that game or we are part of the cover up.

     

     

    The question for me is can I maintain my interest in this story any longer ?

     

     

    HH

  15. Awe_Naw_No_Annoni_Oan_Anaw_Noo on

    Sorry Mags

     

     

    I accidentally hit post half way through that post

     

     

    I will try it again

     

     

    HH

  16. Awe_Naw_No_Annoni_Oan_Anaw_Noo on

    From the photographic evidence of funny handshakes all round it would seem that we had a ??????? of Masons officiating the semi final on Sunday. A game that the treble hinged on.

     

     

    ????????=collective noun for a group of Masons.

     

     

    Now if it is not an orchestrated campaign , a few questions arise.

     

     

    How many Masons does ot take out of six chosen for it not to be orchestrated ?

     

     

    Maybe we can ask our good friend Phil Mc G to ask his good friend and “honourable man” John Fleming to answer these questions if the club is not asking.

     

     

    Masons are sleekit and sly. Sundays public handshakes were deliberate. They were an unashamed in your face warning about what was about to occur. The scheduling of games for Celtic a prelude to the stakes increasing.

     

     

    The sevco v baby huns SPFL furore possibly connected. A shot across the bows.

     

     

    The catalyst to all this overt cheating can only be guessed at. Something is happening in the background to get Celtic to back off even further.

     

     

    I SPECULATE that it has to do with DaveKings and Murrays fit and proper persons acceptance and Resolution 12.

     

     

    A financially neutered Ashley controlled Sevco is our boards preferred choice. I suspect. Our plc has always wanted its cake and eat it. Hence the silence on the 5 way agreement. Personally I will never forgive them for not slitting their throats with quiet satisfaction.

     

     

    Res 12 is a pain in the arse for all concerned. It will need resolved at local level. A few SFA heads to roll is all that would seem to be saught after at this stage. Nobody will want to involve UEFA.

     

     

    Anyways….until the whole shebang is transparent and fully accountable it will always be the same old. Same old.

     

     

    Make no mistake they would rather kill the professional game off in Scotland if it means their favourite club is not

     

     

    permanently ordained as being pre eminent.

     

     

    They cannot afford it just now, hence every dirty trick in the book is being used.

     

     

    It has all gone very quiet on the HMRC front, the BDO front, Craig Whyte, operation green hornet etc.

     

     

    Either something big is about to happen and Celtic plc with its billionaires and government cabinet connected operators are playing that game or we are part of the cover up.

     

     

    The question for me is can I maintain my interest in this story any longer ?

     

     

    HH

  17. So,…..let me get this right…there’s a ‘wiff’ in the air that…bundles and, bundles of, Celtic supporters SB’s could be left lying in a pile…gathering dust coz…the fans are pissed-off at, the board’s acceptance/condoning/complying with the clubs status as establishment-punchbags…maybe not?….but, there are rumblings that, a growing amount of the rank and file of supporters….are ready to put the tools away.

     

     

    The rumblings seem to have hit a raw-nerve amongst the Celtic Park hierarchy who, it seems have informed their number one ‘plant’….Phil Mac has revealed that, Celtic are ready to send a letter to Uefa about the res-12 thingy….why now?

     

     

    The season mentioned is – 2011/2012- is that not one of the years when, this ‘same’ Celtic board…looked the other way whilst the huns stole all the CL-money?

     

     

    Why the guilt trip?

     

     

    Again…lots of folk from this blog…are starting to make arrangements for the celebratory street-parties…just like the ole…jelly & ice cream days, eh?

     

     

    The cynical-eye would be of the oinion that – Phil Mac rushed into print a book about the ‘demise’ of the huns – Downfall – I’m sure the same Phil Mac, knew fine well that the huns will ‘never’ be allowed to die in this country and…struck(with the book)…while the iron was hot.

     

     

    The same Phil Mac has been telling us for years now that…”it’ll not be long now…the huns wulny survive this…Sevco wulny survive that..”…..and yet, in all likelihood…these same huns will be back in the same league as Celtic next season.

     

     

    The Celtic board and their ‘plants’ are worse than any grand-masonic-conspiracy.

     

     

    Ah mean…a threat to SB-sales and…hey-presto…the Celtic board get their erses into gear and….they’ve to be applauded for that???????????

     

     

    Ye know what….all the cheating-mibbery-chicanery-bigotry-etc that yeez find yerselves being subjected to – yeez deserve it…yeez are worse than d#cks!

     

     

    Nae Jungle = Nae Rebels

     

     

    Celtic died the day that Fergus sucked the soul oot it.

     

     

    …….bye.

  18. Auldheid/Brogan-Rogan:

     

     

    Can either of you please explain to me, in layman terms, why Res 12 is apparently being pursued by a group of isolated shareholders, acting in what they believe to be the best interests of the PLC/(Club), as opposed the PLC pursuing Res 12 in the best interests of shareholders/(Supporters) and by extension, hence the Club?

     

     

    I don’t understand the limits of authority. But I’d like to understand the extent of the will of authority, especially the obligation, responsibility and authority of Celtic PLC in particular.

     

     

    Good luck to ICT. I personally wish any team that beats us the best, as long as they do it on sporting merit and sporting merit alone. ICT are not responsible for Celtic being knocked out of the cup (other than the inconveint truth they scored more goals than us), ICT do not determine the behaviour of match officials; and as I’ve said on here so many times before, I don’t hold cups, even the Scottish Cup, as any priority when we are in a battle for the league; A league that is far from won yet.

     

     

    I don’t manage to get on so often, and won’t for the next few weeks so if Auldheid or Brogan Rogan read this and respond would some kind soul please e-mail me their response.

  19. Just scrolled back and read the night shift.

     

     

    That’s two minutes I’ll never get back.

     

     

    The big question is, how’s the weather in East Kilbride this morning?

  20. GG

     

     

    How can Carloway state the song is sectarian? There is absolutely nothing in its content which supports such a claim.

     

     

    Offensive? It will be to some, however, I hear offensive chants from other team’s supporters at practically every away ground in Scotland.

     

     

    This law is becoming more discredited with every new case, when will the SNP realise this and repeal it?!

  21. Good morning friends from a dry, bright, clear skied, sunny and getting warm East Kilbride.

     

     

    No messing about tonight, Celtic. Please.

  22. Hamiltontim:

     

     

    I skimmed that article, check the dates.

     

     

    PS can you recomend a broker so I can buy some shares.

  23. Unpopular I know, but i don’t believe that there was any conspiracy against us. The penalty decision, in my opinion, came from Muir. He obviously felt that the ball hit the played in the face and none of the rest of the MIB were confident enough to overrule this.

     

     

    Muir was fooled by the old stuntman technique of throwing a punch; the viewer is on the near side and the punch come across the far side with the actor throwing his head back. Simple but effective.

     

     

    McLean has a clear view, but is side on and probably defers to Muir with some wishful thinking thrown in.

     

     

    The reason we are out off the cup is that we went down to 10 men, pure and simple. The reason why I was so confident before the game, wide pitch, became our nemesis after the sending off.

     

     

    Let’s focus on tonight’s game, anything other than a defeat will be fine, victory preferred of course.

  24. Kitalba

     

     

    The case is still ongoing despite it being from 2013.

     

     

    Sorry mate can’t help with the broker thing but I’m sure some of our business people on here will give you what you’re looking for.

  25. Margaret McGill on

    kitalba

     

     

    06:13 on 22 April, 2015

     

     

    I vaguely remember the line I was fed 8 months ago was that Celtic were in fact pursuing the equivalent of Res 12 but privately. If done publicly then The complaint by its nature would need to be escalated to UEFA and ran the risk of having ALL Scottish clubs suspended from Europe pending an investigation. The truth is probably more along the lines of stalling enough to facilitate Rangers SPL comeback. I’m sticking to my stalling tactic theory and some statute of limitations jiggeryppkery. Basically it was a noble effort unexpected from the PLC who think we’re awe mugs.

  26. Silver City 1888 on

    Hamiltontim, the SNP will repeal it when it costs them votes. They are just like all the rest. They don’t care who they damage as long as they get power.

  27. silver city 1888

     

     

    I agree that’s why at this time, with an election on the horizon, we should all be raising this with our SNP MSPs.