Omission bias research and refs with grudges

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The SFA Head of Refereeing, John Fleming, spoke about the semi-final incident on Sunday, largely to protect his fraternity.  Referee Steven McLean made a huge error but Fleming said “I don’t think there was anyone in the ground who would have thought it was 100% a penalty and sending off until they had seen the replay.”

This flies in the face of the Celtic players who claimed for a penalty on the spot, the raised voices from thousands of Celtic supporters, and the shout from the TV commentator.  Fleming’s assertion is demonstrably untrue.

He is a man in a position of authority at the SFA.  He is allowed to have opinions, or to disagree with any club, but making untrue statements to protect his referees is a wholly inappropriate.  If is the standard referees are held to, no wonder we have problems.  Having asked for clarification on the refereeing error yesterday, I expect Celtic will be even keener on an explanation for Fleming’s incredulous comment.

I’ve linked here to a Stanford University report on Omission Bias in Sports.  The report finds that people are biased to favour inaction (i.e. don’t make a decision) over action (make a decision which will have a profound impact).

It’s an interesting concept which good refereeing guidance will account for.  They found that “For all sports, effect [is]stronger if game is close and weak when score is lopsided”.

Omission bias is what we should be looking for in Scottish football.  Evidence this video of former referee Kenny Clark, who while still officiating SPL games told an audience that he held a grudge against Celtic’s John Hartson and failed to award him a foul which he saw clearly enough to describe in some detail.

Unfortunately, no journalist has ever been able to contact Mr Clark to ask him about his grudges or omission bias.  If this was England, the media would not allow Clark to flaunt omission bias while defending it in others, he would be called to account.

See above, Sunday’s officials greeting each other on the pitch before kick off.  Before the dust settles on this one, some of us better learn a new handshake.  Those wanting real change at the SFA will have to fight for it.

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984 Comments

  1. Petec

     

     

    I have said for long enough we need to start our our newspaper, tis the only way mi amigo.

     

     

    A spread that is willing to tell the truth, wow, how radical is that :-)

     

     

    HH

  2. re: media – i think most pundits support video evidence.

     

     

    I’d allow managers 2-3 challenges per match where video evidence is sought. I’d let the passage of play to continue as normal until the ball is out of play , play stopped due to foul or back in the keepers arms. Waiting for the resulting decision is just as exciting as long as its done quickly.

     

     

    if a goal is scored during the passage of play it stands – imagine the scenarios this plays out!

  3. gary67

     

     

    22:33 on 21 April, 2015

     

     

    Agree Meekings probably needs one of the Hampden 6 to break ranks.

     

     

    Or will it be judged on “the balance of probability”? What is the chance that none of the Hampden 6 saw it hit Meekings’ hand? Even if they all say they didn’t see it, the balance of probability is that one of them is lying.

     

     

    If one of them saw it and did not act on what they saw then Meekings is innocent.

     

     

    There can only be Six people who got this wrong and Meekings isn’t one of them.

     

     

    THE BALANCE OF PROBABILITY.

  4. FourGreenFields on

    delaneys dunky

     

     

    Soon I hope , not been in The Smiddy for a while but will sort that out soon :))

  5. Stebhoy

     

     

    Video evidence can only be used once the correct facilities are in place at every stadium to provide a consistent and fair competition. Scotland is miles off this scenario.

     

    The Scottish cup would have to be latter stages and the premiership may be in a position in a few years but I doubt it. We are a footballing backwater with one huge club and an organisation desperate to hold us back.

     

    Most clubs in Scotland can’t even supply a decent pitch to play on!

     

    Video evidence? Probably end up with a cameraman who missed it anaw!

     

     

    LB

  6. If McLean and dude behind the goals missed the penalty there is every chance the rest missed it.

     

     

    Feck knows why the assistant behind Gordons goals or the fourth official or the near side assistant are being brought into it.

  7. Meekings biggest mistake was admitting it. He should have said nothing. If this is the only final he can play in for the rest of his career he will regret not holding his tongue the rest of his life.

     

    The officials must have knew at half time they got it wrong. They didn’t even begin to show any understanding or compassion.

     

    They showed arrogance and defiance. I watched the game again last night and the referees attitude after his honest mistake was a disgrace. He knows perfectly well what he did and he made sure our players knew it too. He should be finished!

     

     

    LB

  8. The football term “the treble”, coined in the scottish media, smacks of Sergeant Jock Wallace´s Rangerees and the swishy seventies.

     

     

    Wallace wasn´t that bad mind you, he was the Berwick Rangers player/manager, the goalie, when they put Rangers out the scottish cup, with a goal by Sammy Reid, in that magical year of 1967.

  9. LiviBhoy

     

     

    22:50 on 21 April, 2015

     

     

    Stebhoy

     

     

    Video evidence can only be used once the correct facilities are in place at every stadium to provide a consistent and fair competition. Scotland is miles off this scenario.

     

    The Scottish cup would have to be latter stages and the premiership may be in a position in a few years but I doubt it. We are a footballing backwater with one huge club and an organisation desperate to hold us back.

     

    Most clubs in Scotland can’t even supply a decent pitch to play on!

     

    Video evidence? Probably end up with a cameraman who missed it anaw!

     

     

    LB

     

    ——————

     

    Who are right that cost is a factor, however we find the money to pay numerous refs over £1k a match, for backwater football the officials still get paid a pretty penny.

     

     

    You could look at it the other way, we have a smaller league so the cost is less than other countries.

     

     

    Same with plastic pitches, have a pooled resource (take it out of win money).

  10. TET

     

     

    The big difference was that in ’94 the very existence of Celtic was at stake that’s not the case now.

     

     

    Aye the decision on Sunday at Hampden was a truly blatant example of corruption and cheating but it’s not anything new. We’ve all seen examples of it for decades, the corruption will always exist.

     

     

    As I’ve said, I do think. It now needs to be tackled but a scattergun boycott approach is not the answer in my opinion. It would rapidly lose its effectiveness because the support wouldn’t back it over a long period.

  11. LiviBhoy

     

     

    22:28 on 21 April, 2015

     

     

    Petec

     

     

    Over where mate?

     

     

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

     

    Belfast m8ty.

  12. Tet,

     

     

    Lol:)

     

     

    Wullie woulda seen it.

     

     

    There is not a chance any of the other officials would try putting their neck on the line when two guys a few steps away didn’t call it

     

     

    HH

  13. fourgreenfields

     

     

    Good for you cancelling sky sports, going by the commentary of the bayern game on here a long way to go.

     

     

    I thought Brown deserved to be booked on Sunday but also agree Inverness players should have been booked prior to that.

     

     

    Still say boycotting is stupid, could you imagine doing it this season? We’re making hard work of the league as it is.

  14. m6bhoy

     

     

    I’m sorry but I probably didn’t make myself clear. I’m not saying it would be a one off boycott. What I’m saying it that an approach that suggests boycotting all League/Scottish Cup games for example would be destined to fail in my opinion.

     

     

    Target one game at a time but base it on the success or failure of any previous boycott.

  15. Delaneys Dunky on

    FGF

     

     

    Coolio in Partick. My son and I have been getting into the habit of jumping off the train at Partick, after this seasons games, to sink a few in the Smiddy. :)

  16. When it comes right down to it, in a Court of Law, we will be batted away.

     

     

    The Celtic Board shat it when their QC was murdered, I don’t Blame them for that, if they have No Belief.

     

     

    Let Celtic Men and Women on the Board who have Belief in The Lord.

     

     

    Let’s rock this Party, easy for a pauper to say.

     

     

    Elvis Believed

  17. FourGreenFields on

    themaestro72

     

     

    That’s why any boycott would need to be well thought out and targeted.

     

    Anyway , thanks for the chat but need to get some beauty sleep .

     

    God knows I need it :-)

     

    HH

  18. HT

     

     

    Ah. but the future of the club is on the line IMO.

     

     

    As I said, we were blessed that we had the financial where with all that we could stand a few years of no CL money that the sfa stole from us, and gave to the mint.

     

     

    Will this always be the same ?

     

     

    Will the season books be at the same level ? will a few of the hard core say enough is enough ?

     

     

    With total respect, I think you are fudging the issue here mi amigo, I reckon you know that the situation is far worse today than back then, but you just can’t admit it, no way a dig, I can only go by your posts, and you have made your bed.

     

     

    I will wager here and now, unless the club challenge the sfa head on, the season books sales will be 25K, or less in 5 years.

     

     

    Mark my words on that C.

     

     

    The time is now, it has been for a few years, but the frame is drawing to an end rather quickly, no action now, we are done for IMO.

     

     

    HH

  19. Delaneys Dunky on

    Petec

     

     

    My mammy loves that Elvis track as much as your’s does. God bless all CQN mammies.

  20. Dallas Dallas where the heck is Dallas on

    Just been in newsnow celtic and the express has an interview with the non-entity, former caley and livi player, barry wilson.

     

     

    He says we are making this situation worse by not letting it lie plus brings in the guidetti penalty at tynecastle.

     

     

    I remember wilson playing against us for livi and he was a wee nyaff, leaving his foot in, moaning at our players , doing everything including diving about to gain fouls and get our players booked. , whining at the ref A horrible wee git.

  21. TET

     

     

    Your making assumptions about my views which are wildly off the mark K.

     

     

    Firstly, I don’t think the future of the club is at stake because of this.

     

     

    Secondly, I don’t actually believe that things are worse now than they were in the past. I do think that their corruption and cheating is highlighted more because of the Internet and the number of cameras at games nowadays but I certainly don’t agree that they’re worse now than in the past.

     

     

    Fair enough you don’t agree mate but these are my beliefs and not what you suggested.

  22. What’s in the Stars,

     

     

    Thanks for that. I will see you in a Dublin in a couple of weeks

  23. Granny Macs Bhoy on

    TET

     

     

    You are correct the guys on Sunday are still aspiring to his level :-))

     

     

    I should really put my serious head on and accept that none of the officials seen the handball and wonder why so many CQNrs are still upset about it.

     

     

    Keep Calm and get to the back of the bus!!! :-))

     

     

    HH GMB

  24. We Shall Never Be Defeated

     

     

    Bhoys, I would proposed a controlled and restricted attendance for SFA sponsored games, not a full bhoycot:-)

     

    Say for a semi final at Hampdump, take a maximum of 5-10000 tickets, this is more than we get for away games, but would hit the SFA to the tune of another 15-20000 tickets

     

    For away games, take a max of 1000 tickets

     

    This way we are still supporting the team, but hitting those who are damaging us

     

    I.e Inverness treatment of our fans last week, with only 2 turnstiles etc

     

    Now

     

    Timjim, I have actually been out of Cowie for over 30 year, if it’s Peter senior yes I knew him – plonker ( trying to be polite here :-)), I also know big Ian who you mentioned, he goes up to the games with a poster on here (BhoyfromSky)

     

    Stirlingbhoy I also know the Bhoy you mentioned from Cowie very well, his story is true :-)

     

     

    Hail Hail and Nytol

  25. Get rid of the 2 tailor’s dummies behind the goal, and the 4th official, there’s some money to cover video costs.

  26. Delaneys Dunky,

     

     

    Hail Hail to that.

     

     

    Disgusted by Sunday, got home at extra time and even Dad was saying it was really bad.

     

     

    We are never gonnae win the Big Cup again, time to expose them all for the cheating liars they are, that home Juventus game really killed it for me, especially as Dallas had moved UP.

     

     

    The Lord will come Good, Ma Good Man.