Omission bias research and refs with grudges

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The SFA Head of Refereeing, John Fleming, spoke about the semi-final incident on Sunday, largely to protect his fraternity.  Referee Steven McLean made a huge error but Fleming said “I don’t think there was anyone in the ground who would have thought it was 100% a penalty and sending off until they had seen the replay.”

This flies in the face of the Celtic players who claimed for a penalty on the spot, the raised voices from thousands of Celtic supporters, and the shout from the TV commentator.  Fleming’s assertion is demonstrably untrue.

He is a man in a position of authority at the SFA.  He is allowed to have opinions, or to disagree with any club, but making untrue statements to protect his referees is a wholly inappropriate.  If is the standard referees are held to, no wonder we have problems.  Having asked for clarification on the refereeing error yesterday, I expect Celtic will be even keener on an explanation for Fleming’s incredulous comment.

I’ve linked here to a Stanford University report on Omission Bias in Sports.  The report finds that people are biased to favour inaction (i.e. don’t make a decision) over action (make a decision which will have a profound impact).

It’s an interesting concept which good refereeing guidance will account for.  They found that “For all sports, effect [is]stronger if game is close and weak when score is lopsided”.

Omission bias is what we should be looking for in Scottish football.  Evidence this video of former referee Kenny Clark, who while still officiating SPL games told an audience that he held a grudge against Celtic’s John Hartson and failed to award him a foul which he saw clearly enough to describe in some detail.

Unfortunately, no journalist has ever been able to contact Mr Clark to ask him about his grudges or omission bias.  If this was England, the media would not allow Clark to flaunt omission bias while defending it in others, he would be called to account.

See above, Sunday’s officials greeting each other on the pitch before kick off.  Before the dust settles on this one, some of us better learn a new handshake.  Those wanting real change at the SFA will have to fight for it.

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984 Comments

  1. Bada

     

     

    Just before I go

     

     

    I take it it was ER you were referring to earlier, in boardroom ?

     

    Big Jock was also one

     

     

    Hail Hail

  2. The six officials took to the field on Sunday with the knowledge that if they witnessed an offence taking place they were obliged to take action to highlight and where applicable punish that offence.

     

     

    Look at the incident again. The Celtic players in the same geographical area as the officials ( I.e. Within 18 yards of the incident ) all simultaneously claim for a penalty. No exception and it is simultaneous so no ‘reaction’ to try and force a decision. They all reacted to seeing the ICT player handle the ball deliberately.

     

     

    We are therefore being asked to believe that, not only did two officials not see this offence, but surprisingly, all others within that same vicinity managed to see it. ( was it a packed penalty box? )

     

     

    Then we are being asked to believe that the four other official elsewhere on the park also did not see the incident, otherwise they would have alerted the referee.

     

     

    So six men, TRAINED to identify and punish offences within the laws of the game did not see an offence, which was proven to have taken place.

     

     

    And some people can’t see a problem with the above. Maybe they are just incompetent.

     

     

    Hail! Hail!

  3. Dallas Dallas where the heck is Dallas on

    Jude, good news. I hope josh is still plying regularly and has had reaction to the head injury he received.

     

     

    Who did we beat?

  4. Dallas Dallas where the heck is Dallas on

    Jude, i meant to type no reaction to his head injury. Sorry for the typo.

  5. Delaneys Dunky on

    Cowie

     

     

    ER employed 3 of my family in his previous job. Was a Perry then, 20 years ago.

  6. Cowiebhoy

     

     

    I don’t agree mate. If there’s going to be an effective boycott it would need the backing of as many supporters as possible.

     

     

    Being realistic, Celtic will never actively support a boycott so the idea of only taking a limited number of tickets wouldn’t work. Celtic will be offered a set number and it’s then up to the support whether to buy them.

     

     

    Again, being realistic, if we send a token support then you’ll have some saying, “Well how come I cannae go?!”

     

     

    And finally, no matter how well intentioned any boycott is I’ll guarantee that you’ll still have some Celtic supporters who’ll attend.

  7. eddieinkirkmichael on

    Delaneys Dunky

     

     

    23:24

     

     

    I’m fine mate, no phones allowed on site. Been home for a few days, leave again tomorrrow for another 4 weeks. I’ll give you a shout next time I’m home and we’ll go for a drink or 2.

  8. Dallas Dallas where the heck is Dallas on

    I need to stop reading articles on newsnow celtic.

     

     

    There is one by caley online which starts ok but the last paragraph is a real load of chic young.

     

     

    Whoever wrote it says we are bad losers and are dragging them through the mud and have killed football. Maybe ‘caley’ fan matt lindsay wrote it.

  9. saltires en sevilla on

    stebhoy

     

     

    22:44 on 21 April, 2015

     

    re: media – i think most pundits support video evidence.

     

     

    I’d allow managers 2-3 challenges per match where video evidence is sought. I’d let the passage of play to continue as normal until the ball is out of play , play stopped due to foul or back in the keepers arms. Waiting for the resulting decision is just as exciting as long as its done quickly.

     

     

    if a goal is scored during the passage of play it stands – imagine the scenarios this plays out!

     

     

    —///—///—///

     

     

    Aye but ,Juventus n sevco would never win anything agin

     

     

    Non-starter!!

     

     

    I like your thinking tho’

  10. HT

     

     

    Ok then, they can cheat with total impunity today, all the cameras in the world, and they still do it, or am I mistaken ?

     

     

    I still think we are much more vunerable that you think, we haven’ytplanned for this time when there has been no challenge to us re CL entry, we should be out of sight, we are far from that, a season or two in the top flight, and the hun bastard incarnation will be challenging, that is a given, skint or not, they will challenge us, and going by their latest wee episode, there is feck all we can do about it.

     

     

    My point from the onset was to force the other clubs to take a stance, they need the cash today more than we do, force them to stand up against the corruption, then we will have an easy path to a better game, and not for a split second do I believe that cos it’s always been the way that we have been cheated that we will always be cheated, FFS, that’s the reason it needs to be challenged, BOYCOTT the bastards, force them to grow a pair.

     

     

    Imagine for a minute, a game has been targeted, can you really see the players giving up cos the support is not there ?

     

     

    Can you really see the players not giving their all, giving their all for the cause, they know what the ef is going down, they know thay are playing to different rules than the rest.

     

     

    I honestly don’t believe for a second that the team need the support, they are professional footballers, they also has a belief, and a level playing field for them will be better that a game or two without a support behind them.

     

     

    And sorry if my last post came across liek you took it, I wasn’t having a dig, far from it, just trying to understand.

     

     

    We do have the good of the club at heart, maybes just see the way to go differently.

     

     

    Feck them, they would see us gone in a heartbeat.

     

     

    HH

  11. bournesouprecipe,

     

     

    Watched the start of that, Thank You for posting it. I’m unlikely to watch it with Mum, I know I should really but as she cannae remember 10 seconds sometimes now, I reckon I will (watch it with her) over the weekend. ;))

     

     

    Thanks Celtic Legend.

     

     

    See Simple Minds can be changed on CQN, almost instantly.

  12. jude2005 is Neil Lennon \o/ on

    Iain Anderson lyric of the week. Vintage car.

     

     

    As I drove away slowly feeling light headed.

     

     

     

    Who wrote it?

  13. Petec

     

     

    You said earlier ……….

     

     

    “Celtic shat it when the QC was murdered”

     

     

    Could you explain ?

  14. TET

     

     

    Not a bother amigo I just felt you were putting words in my mouth and everyone knows that’s the Minx’s job!! :-)

     

     

    Excuse me but I must sleep so I’ll give your detailed reply the justice it deserves in the morning.

     

     

    I hope the missus is continuing to recover well.

  15. moravcik

     

     

    23:37 on 21 April, 2015

     

     

    Petec

     

     

    You said earlier ……….

     

     

    “Celtic shat it when the QC was murdered”

     

     

    Could you explain ?

     

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

     

     

    Does it need explaining?

     

     

    seriously?

  16. jude2005 is Neil Lennon \o/ on

    lct

     

     

    Sorry to hear abt ur mammy. Wee prayer at vespers later for her

  17. Delaneys Dunky on

    Eddie

     

     

    We will go for a drink in Dalmuir and I will pick up the full bar tab. I owe you it amigo. God bless your safe return to West Dunbartonshire.

     

    Love Quadrafenians. Gimme more please. ;))

  18. moravcik,

     

     

    I don’t think you comprehend the amount of Corruption going on. This is the House of Cards moment.

     

     

    Now Do you have an Idea who I am talking about?

     

     

    The Lord is my Shepherd.

  19. Dallas Dallas where the heck is Dallas on

    Bada, is he ? An even bigger waste of licence payer’s money.

     

     

    Each time barry wilson played against us when he was at livingstone, he was very enthusiastic in his efforts. He also says in the express interview we should be getting punished. Wtf

     

     

    The caley online article seems to ignore the fact that it is due to incompetent sfa employees

     

    this situation arose, the not awarded penalty and meekings being cited.

  20. i thought the intelligent, articulate , respectable , persuasive, disruptive , influential and dangerous QC died upon eating a curry in india. seems plausible to me!

  21. Delaneys Dunky on

    TeT

     

     

    That snarling like a pit bull face that the wee masonic bassa MacLean showed Virgil, sums him up. Wrong wan of the highest masonic order.

  22. stebhoy

     

     

    23:56 on 21 April, 2015

     

     

    i thought the intelligent, articulate , respectable , persuasive, disruptive , influential and dangerous QC died upon eating a curry in india. seems plausible to me!

     

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

     

     

    Yes Sir, entirely plausible, QC as well, highly respected, UNTOUCHABLE.

     

     

    Like I’m saying, hand the Reigns over to people who have Total Faith in the Lord, Prayers every Board Meeting.

     

     

    The Goal is to expose the Liars and the Deceivers, we will winalot on the way, as Every Dog has it’s day.

  23. GMB

     

     

    We get upset cos we see injustice, no saying we are whiter than white, but FFS, the back o the bus is no the place for us, seriously it’s not, I don’t want us to be driving it either, I just want us to have a choice.

     

     

    Was in town today, saw a bloke that was getting unfair imo hassle, he was black, and the crap he was having to endure was so feckin out of order caused me to say something, then I started getting it, getting called all the english …….under the sun, water off a ducks back to me these days, but I will never give into to anyone who wants to see me at the back of the bus, never.

     

     

    Anything that furthers the cause, anything that sees us with parity, anything tha sees a leveler playing field.

     

     

    HH

     

     

    Sleep well Timland, tatties and onions to plant in a few hours.

     

     

    KTF…tho it’s hard.

  24. Delaneys Dunky on

    Petec

     

     

    Spookily a workmate of mine today said, “They are all feart to speak out at Celtic since the QC got popped.”

  25. South Of Tunis on

    Jude2005.

     

     

    If it is – As I drove away slowly feeling so Holy – then it is.

     

     

    Tom Waits – Ol 55 .

  26. DD

     

     

    Every picture tells a story, and that told an epic one, their hate is palpable mi amigo, FFs, I can feel it from here.

     

     

    mail me btw, and I will send that to you, or you could wait for the end product, neighbour has a veritable forrest on the go, and I’m no kidding when I say a forrest :-)

     

     

    nohunshere@hotmail.com

     

     

    HH

  27. Dallas-Fat Jabba will be on the blower to anyone involved in the media,to muddy the waters mate.

  28. Delaneys Dunky

     

     

    00:04 on 22 April, 2015

     

     

    Petec

     

     

    Spookily a workmate of mine today said, “They are all feart to speak out at Celtic since the QC got popped.”

     

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

     

     

    Can’t see why, unless they have No Balls and No Belief.

     

     

    Who really knows though what is really going on, another of the conundrums of Life. The Board should be fighting harder than ever for Celtic, Ban a Rag, start with the Daily Record.

     

     

    I’m just angry and very cynical, I’m amongst Great people, I shouldn’t be angry and I certainly shouldn’t be cynical.

     

     

    It is just doing ma fecking tits in.

     

     

     

    I wullnae post Joy Division again!!!!