Omission bias research and refs with grudges

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The SFA Head of Refereeing, John Fleming, spoke about the semi-final incident on Sunday, largely to protect his fraternity.  Referee Steven McLean made a huge error but Fleming said “I don’t think there was anyone in the ground who would have thought it was 100% a penalty and sending off until they had seen the replay.”

This flies in the face of the Celtic players who claimed for a penalty on the spot, the raised voices from thousands of Celtic supporters, and the shout from the TV commentator.  Fleming’s assertion is demonstrably untrue.

He is a man in a position of authority at the SFA.  He is allowed to have opinions, or to disagree with any club, but making untrue statements to protect his referees is a wholly inappropriate.  If is the standard referees are held to, no wonder we have problems.  Having asked for clarification on the refereeing error yesterday, I expect Celtic will be even keener on an explanation for Fleming’s incredulous comment.

I’ve linked here to a Stanford University report on Omission Bias in Sports.  The report finds that people are biased to favour inaction (i.e. don’t make a decision) over action (make a decision which will have a profound impact).

It’s an interesting concept which good refereeing guidance will account for.  They found that “For all sports, effect [is]stronger if game is close and weak when score is lopsided”.

Omission bias is what we should be looking for in Scottish football.  Evidence this video of former referee Kenny Clark, who while still officiating SPL games told an audience that he held a grudge against Celtic’s John Hartson and failed to award him a foul which he saw clearly enough to describe in some detail.

Unfortunately, no journalist has ever been able to contact Mr Clark to ask him about his grudges or omission bias.  If this was England, the media would not allow Clark to flaunt omission bias while defending it in others, he would be called to account.

See above, Sunday’s officials greeting each other on the pitch before kick off.  Before the dust settles on this one, some of us better learn a new handshake.  Those wanting real change at the SFA will have to fight for it.

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984 Comments

  1. Josh Meekings will win his appeal, this is just a fog cast by the SFA to cover their work..!

     

    Although I’d be happy he didn’t, gloating and claiming it was accidental nay medal son laugh noo….

     

     

    Ayrshire is Green and White

  2. Petec

     

     

    Over where mate?

     

     

    BRTH & Paul67

     

     

    It would appear you know a lot more than you are telling right now.

     

    Sounds like Phil has jumped the gun to me.

     

     

    LB

  3. fourgreenfields

     

     

    22:18 on 21 April, 2015

     

    themaestro72

     

     

    Not looking for an argument mate but what do you suggest as an alternative ?

     

    _______________________________

     

     

    Not sure mate, boycott not for me as it hurts the team.

     

     

    Why not boycott sky and bt?

     

     

    Referee shocking on Sunday but what about kick-off times?

     

     

    As John Collins says “video evidence”

  4. Patrick27….thats pretty poor…If the SFA.. were So Bent on Stopping The Treble…Ffs..They are So Powerful Albion Rovers Could beat Us…Think About it…

  5. weet weet weet(GBWO) on

    Guys

     

     

    Wits camogie awe aboot

     

     

    Never heard of it till this afternoon

     

     

    HH

  6. eddieinkirkmichael on

    BGX

     

     

    22:03

     

     

    Thank god you were never involved in the Civil Rights Movement in the USA. They’d still be sitting at the back of the bus if they took your advice ;)

     

     

    Seriously though, what are we to do? Just do nothing seems to be your preferred MO. How does that work?

     

     

    At least some among our support are now questioning the SFA and looking for ways to make them take notice of our concerns re officials.

     

    A one game boycotte by Celtic fans of an SFA sponsered competition would bring the issue to a wider audience and also make sponsers ask questions.

     

     

    We await your own ideas on how best to highlight our concerns.

  7. thomthethim for Oscar OK on

    Any revenue Celtic lost, due to a Hampden boycott, would surely be more than compensated by the increase in STs, due to the return of those who deserted owing to the club not having ” grown a pair”!

     

     

    An SFA boycott is long overdue, even before Sunday’s debacle.

     

     

    Boycotts are like Strikes. No sensible person wants to engage in one, but it is the last resort for those who have no other method of effective protest.

  8. BGX

     

     

    You have been like a stuck record for the last 2 days….and its totally boring.

     

    `Prove this, prove that.’..jeez gie us peace for goodness sake !!

     

     

     

    And its goodnight to all the others for their constructive points.

  9. belfastcelt

     

     

    22:13 on 21 April, 2015

     

    “Wee query guys…is Craig Gordon suspended for the Dundee game?”

     

     

     

    Not if he was done for preventing obvious goal scoring opportunity (1 game ban in same competition) rather than violent conduct (immediate 1 game ban in all competitions and 1 game ban in same competition).

     

     

    Why should we know? We are only supporters.

  10. micktt

     

     

    22:27 on 21 April, 2015

     

    Josh Meekings will win his appeal

     

     

    The only way Meekings can win his appeal is if one of the six officials admit they saw the incident and thought it wasn’t a handball. Ex compliance officer Lunny said so on radio tonight. Never going to happen, the wagons have been circled, the decision has been made.

  11. What is the Stars on

    WEET weet weet

     

     

    Camogie is hurling for girls

     

     

    Hurling is Irish for Shinty

     

     

    Hurling is Hockey for real men

     

     

    Its a great game

     

     

    Camogie is the female version

     

     

    The only bad thing about it is that Cork usually win it

     

     

    BOO

  12. Interesting – 30mins into Goldstein & Cundy on talkSPORT and all the ‘talk’ is about the furore over the ‘penalty incident’ on Sunday.

     

     

    Is it getting to a wider audience??

  13. thomthethim for Oscar OK on

    weet weet weet(gbwo)

     

     

    22:29 on 21 April, 2015

     

    Guys

     

     

    Wits camogie awe aboot

     

     

    Never heard of it till this afternoon

     

     

    HH

     

    ******

     

    It’s what they call Hurling for women.

  14. Bgx

     

     

    I can see your points but see if you do nothing what changes?

     

    A forum or blog is a chance to vent and get your opinions aired. It’s a reason a lot of people have probably avoided social media and various blogs and forums for a few days.

     

    I think the players reactions tell the whole story. Leigh Griffiths can see the referee and the referee can see him. Nothing is blocking the referees view. Surely you do not believe he did not see it. All the officials were not watching the ball? Surely not.

     

    Anyway I thought we played poorly on Sunday but that was a huge moment but it should have inspired us and I was disappointed at the player reaction start of the 2nd half. We should have put the game to bed early with sustained pressure. We blew it and left our keeper exposed.

     

    I really don’t like losing but am honest enough and big enough to accept it. My gut feeling on this one is something sinister is going on.

     

     

    LB

  15. BGX 22:24 on 21 April, 2015

     

     

    The SFA have cited Josh Meekins on the basis that all six match officials confirmed to the Compliance Officer that they did not see a deliberate hand-ball offence. On the balance of probability, how likely is it that all six were the only ones not to see the offence? You may choose to believe that fairies live at the bottom of your garden. Please don’t expect me to.

  16. stebhoy

     

     

    As Exiled T alludes to.

     

     

    You can’t get a media onside, you got to start your own Press. Bill Cooper was a genius!!!

     

     

    Start exposing every fecker, If the Board have things to hide, make sure the New Press, let’s just say the CSTV, is well Supported in whatever way.

     

     

    I’m sick of so much, and I try really hard to be happy, I really do, I think about others now, who don’t have Faith anymore, that has been stolen from them, by Selfish Bastards.

     

     

    Let Men and Women control Celtic, who will fight against every Corruption. The phrase that Disney pay is Win, Lose or Draw!

     

     

    The SFA is UEFA and FIFA.

     

     

    SCOTTISH RITE of FREEMASONRY.

     

     

    I tell you what, I was surprised at 1 dude who laughed under his breathe when I talked about the handshake before the game.

     

     

    WilliamCooper.csc

  17. Dallas Dallas where the heck is Dallas on

    BGX, as a yes voter, i lived in hope we got a majority, unfortunately we didn’t and i have accepted the no result.

     

     

    However, the no campaign pulled out all the stops to cause people to fear a yes victory..

     

     

    Do you think there is a comparison in the way we are treated by the SFA, the media and the polis in our country to the the way the No campaign’s policy

     

     

    Do we know if Scotland would have been a far better country for everyone if the majority voted yes or is that the subject of conversation also?

  18. Brogan Rogan Trevino and Hogan supports Oscar Knox, MacKenzie Furniss and anyone else who fights Neuroblastoma on

    Burghbhoy

     

    22:27 on

     

    21 April, 2015

     

     

    The Devil is always in the detail.

     

     

    Sweet Dreams nonetheless.

  19. I hope that this time tomorrow we’re in a better mood after picking up 3 points in a very tricky game.

  20. PL Collina refereeing master class last year demonstrated how the officials behind goal are trained to be clear in their communication. If a penalty they shout repeatedly PENALTY PENALTY PENALTY or if a tackle is clean they shout NO PENALTY repeatedly.

     

     

    What was interesting was that the show used actual recordings from Champions League games officiated by English crew .Howard Webb & co.

     

    So does anyone know if SFA have these tapes ?

     

    or are they currently being dubbed to cover up the farce at Hampden

     

    The Onlooker

  21. FourGreenFields on

    themaestro72

     

     

    I have cancelled sky sports and told them why , Scottish football should dump them too and get back to games played at 3 o’clock on a Saturday afternoon or at other times agreed between clubs and their supporters .

     

    The decision on Sunday was the last straw , I’m sick of our players being booked after their first tackle while opposition players are allowed to foul without sanction. I’m sick of our players being pulled back when an obvious advantage should be played , I’m sick of substandard pitches which prevent the playing of free flowing ,entertaining football.

     

    Something has to give , why not try a well organised and targeted boycott.

     

    HH

  22. Granny Macs Bhoy on

    On the balance of probability I think I can say that 3 out of 5 officials (not counting the guy behind the line at our end) seen the hand ball unobstructed unless they all had their eyes shut. It was good enough to convict Tonev. We don’t need absolute proof balance of probability is the way the game is run and bgx your view is found not proven!

     

     

    HH GMB

  23. What is the Stars on

    Clogher

     

     

    Yes just trying to wind up Corkie if hes about,in fairness he never gets grumpy

     

    I actually think he isnt from Cork at all (or at all at all as they might say)

  24. m6bhoy

     

     

    Mhate even the freakin fairies saw it was a penalty!

     

     

    ;-)

     

     

    HH jamesgang