Omission bias research and refs with grudges

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The SFA Head of Refereeing, John Fleming, spoke about the semi-final incident on Sunday, largely to protect his fraternity.  Referee Steven McLean made a huge error but Fleming said “I don’t think there was anyone in the ground who would have thought it was 100% a penalty and sending off until they had seen the replay.”

This flies in the face of the Celtic players who claimed for a penalty on the spot, the raised voices from thousands of Celtic supporters, and the shout from the TV commentator.  Fleming’s assertion is demonstrably untrue.

He is a man in a position of authority at the SFA.  He is allowed to have opinions, or to disagree with any club, but making untrue statements to protect his referees is a wholly inappropriate.  If is the standard referees are held to, no wonder we have problems.  Having asked for clarification on the refereeing error yesterday, I expect Celtic will be even keener on an explanation for Fleming’s incredulous comment.

I’ve linked here to a Stanford University report on Omission Bias in Sports.  The report finds that people are biased to favour inaction (i.e. don’t make a decision) over action (make a decision which will have a profound impact).

It’s an interesting concept which good refereeing guidance will account for.  They found that “For all sports, effect [is]stronger if game is close and weak when score is lopsided”.

Omission bias is what we should be looking for in Scottish football.  Evidence this video of former referee Kenny Clark, who while still officiating SPL games told an audience that he held a grudge against Celtic’s John Hartson and failed to award him a foul which he saw clearly enough to describe in some detail.

Unfortunately, no journalist has ever been able to contact Mr Clark to ask him about his grudges or omission bias.  If this was England, the media would not allow Clark to flaunt omission bias while defending it in others, he would be called to account.

See above, Sunday’s officials greeting each other on the pitch before kick off.  Before the dust settles on this one, some of us better learn a new handshake.  Those wanting real change at the SFA will have to fight for it.

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984 Comments

  1. Brogan,

     

     

    If I wasn’t sat at work I think I’d applaud right now.

     

     

    Very informative

     

     

    HH

  2. 67Heaven .. CHALLENGING THE LIE ..I am wee Oscar...... Ipox belongs to the creditors on

    Is the game on telly tonight, chaps ? …….

  3. Re Phil Macgiollabhain’s articles re res 12;

     

     

    I wonder if the outcome of this (non) development might be certain people now know who within the Celtic environment gives stories to Phil?

  4. Up over the goal. Gary67

     

     

    You have to ask the question do we have two players we can play up front

     

    Neil had the same problem Lack of investment up front. Too many failed cheap projects

  5. time for change on

    In the past I often left Hampden feeling cheated…In my 50 years of attending football matches, playing the game, coaching and doing SFA badges I have witnessed many levels of disdain and outright hatred for Celtic, and people of a certain religion. I have also noticed preferential treatment offered to others over this period.

     

     

    The core of the games administration is untenable:

     

    • leadership unfit for duty and out of date

     

    • advisors with vested interests

     

    • committees undermining each other

     

    .

  6. Sydney,

     

     

    I seen that. And we were the far better team for it.

     

     

    And behind that one striker was a guy who got a million goals last season and another in double figures for the season.

     

     

    4-4-2 doesn’t mean more goals than x-x-x-1

     

     

    Been done to death.

  7. 67Heaven .. CHALLENGING THE LIE ..I am wee Oscar...... Ipox belongs to the creditors on

    I’m hearing that the end we were attacking in the second half was watered at half-time, but not the other half of the pitch …….what was that all about?

  8. time for change on

    Whoops joy of typing on a phone….bottom line we a root and branch clear out with invitation sent to UEFA to promote a new structure….I for one am fed up been cheated but the removal of one person us not going to clear this mess up….nor the machinations of replacement be allowed to remain.

     

     

    In my view it wasn’t just Celtic who were cheated it’s the whole of Scottish football.

     

     

    Looking forward to tonight’s game glad that I made my choice years ago to stop attending away games.

     

     

    HH

  9. 67Heaven .. CHALLENGING THE LIE ..I am wee Oscar...... Ipox belongs to the creditors on

    time for change

     

     

    10:43 on 22 April, 2015

     

     

    Absolutely spot on …….. and, with this undeniably bigotry-orientated decision, our Board need to take it ‘all the way’, or the CSA will……scandalous…….they display RESPECT and NO TO RACISM posters, and then completely ignore ‘the message’ ……. Still feckin raging

  10. BRTH brings another fascinating snippet of legal education to the CQN masses. Many thanks again.

  11. Geordie. We can agree to disagree

     

    The main reason we have lost out on cups over last few years has been a lack of goal scorers on the park

     

    Goal scorers win prizes

     

    Going back a few years. What would strijke forces of Mcclair mcgarvey. Or mcgarvey Mccluskey have made of Inverness on sat

     

    Strikers running into spaces at hampden keeps their full backs at the back and pushes our midfield forward

     

    Tactics used by big teams over little ones the world over

  12. “The main reason we have lost out on cups over last few years has been a lack of goal scorers on the park”

     

     

    Sydney,

     

     

    We’ll keep on disagreeing if you post stuff like that :)

     

     

    Today’s game has moved on from the 80’s.

     

     

    HH

  13. 67Heaven .. CHALLENGING THE LIE ..I am wee Oscar...... Ipox belongs to the creditors on

    brogan rogan trevino and hogan supports oscar knox, mackenzie furniss and anyone else who fights neuroblastoma

     

     

    10:15 on 22 April, 2015

     

     

    What a post THAT is ……… RESPECT ….. !!!!!!!!

  14. SydneyTim

     

     

    You have to ask the question do we have two players we can play up front

     

    Neil had the same problem Lack of investment up front. Too many failed cheap projects

     

     

    I’d agree with you on the ‘failed, cheap projects’ line. We have seen how players like Armstrong and GMS have so far looked way better than the foreign gambles of the past, although I doubt either of them will fetch Wanyama’s asking price, so it’s up for debate.

     

     

    As to your rhetorical question, of course we do. Guidetti, Griffiths, Stokes and Scepovic are all strikers, aren’t they?

     

     

    Even if you discount three of them, Deila could still play a formation that has two players up front (and yes, before his supporters round on me, I am aware that he considers his formation to comprise three super-attacking midfielders and one striker).

     

     

    Lennon did it with 4-3-1-2 and 4-4-2. Hooper and Stokes’ partnership in the ‘dead’ formation, while not exactly pure, beautiful, inventive etc., was probably the most successful of all time at the club, at least in terms of winning games (though I’m sure with Larsson and Sutton/Hartson, it would be close).

     

     

    We don’t have a Gary Hooper at the club. John Guidetti was brought in as a lone striker, and while he is certainly strong and skillful, he lacks the movement Ronny demands, which is a shame as I don’t think we can attract better.

  15. 67Heaven .. CHALLENGING THE LIE ..I am wee Oscar...... Ipox belongs to the creditors on

    geordie munro

     

     

    10:39 on 22 April, 2015

     

    67heaven,

     

     

    Thank you …..realised that games in the top leagues aren’t on telly on CL nights…HH

  16. Brogan Rogan Trevino and Hogan supports Oscar Knox, MacKenzie Furniss and anyone else who fights Neuroblastoma on

    Tint Tim

     

     

    Ogilvie’s position has been gone over a number of times but here goes again.

     

     

    I am told that Campbell put himslef forward for re-election in 2012 and was seconded so he was in the race.

     

     

    A number of clubs, I am told Celtic included, wanted an alternative cnadidate and agreed to support that candidate.

     

     

    However, in the end the candidate concerned stated that he did not want to run due to ongoing personal health issues and so withdrew from the race late on.

     

     

    He has since died.

     

     

    That left Ogilvie as the only man in the race. There was no need for any vote as when you are unopposed you are unopposed.

     

     

    Now, add to that point that there were some who stated that they wanted CO to remain in place and to be in place to deal with whatever might happen next in terms of being accountable for what might come out in the wash.

     

     

    And there is a fair bit of wash.

     

     

    What has been mooted recently is that there is little point with replacing CO with a CO clone.

     

     

    There is little point in replacing George Peat with someone of a similar mindset or style of governance.

     

     

    What is required is a dermatological clear out of the entire system where committees are reduced from meetings of huge numbers of people down to smaller professionally ran and professionally accountable committees who report back to the general memebership.

     

     

    Radical change from the top down — as advocated years ago by the late Paul McBride and resisted by the SFA in general.

     

     

    Cast your mind back to the fuss that was made about the appeal panel surrounding referee decisions being cinducted solely by ex referees. Celtic pointed out that such a procedure was rubbish and forced a change to an independently and legally chaired appeal process.

     

     

    Some still don’t like it and it is not perfect in that it lacks certain rules of evidence and judgement but it is better than a handful of ex refs.

     

     

    That culture has not been changed and will not change until there is radical surgery at the top.

     

     

    Against the background of the Rangers PLC fiasco Scottish Football and their adminsitrators were shit scared of their own shadow and the big Ibrox bogey man.

     

     

    They lacked leadership and vision.

     

     

    If what took place then can be highlighted as “unacceptable” and the whole organisation is faced with very awkward questions about what happened in those days – given the public pronouncements of certain people at the time – then there will be an ever increasing mood for change.

     

     

    Clubs are now run by much more business like individuals who are finding their voice and who are not afraid to say ” This is a pile of shit!” and we have the savvy and business experience to back that opinion up.

     

     

    Anne Budge, Stevie Thomson, Steve Brown, Leanne Dempster, Stuart Milne, Duncan Fraser, the guys at Inverness — these are all people who now will not be slow to voice and opinion if presented with evidence of administrative cobblers as has been seen in recent times.

     

     

    The times they are a changing bit by bit in an ongoing process.

     

     

    Q. How do you catch a Stuart?

     

    A. With a Campbell perhaps?

     

     

    Q. How do you catch a Campbell?

     

    A. With a Stuart!

  17. Blindlemonchitlin on

    I’m still beelin from Sunday, as, very much to my surprise, was Mrs. Blind who normally couldn’t give a monkeys. Her solution was that the game be replayed from that point in the first half, a penalty and red card for Meekings be awarded and the game then played to a conclusion. Much argument from me about the impossibility of such which, in the face of her implacable logic, descended to the ‘ just because that’s how’ level.

     

     

    However, a couple thoughts:

     

     

    1. Is there an audio recording of what the Referee and assistants say to each other during the game on their intercoms? If so, is it kept for the purposes of review by the Refereeing Superviser? How long is it retained for? Can it be released in the interests of clarity? Unguarded comments on radio mikes can be very illuminating, ask Gordon Brown. Sky were super duper fast in 2010 in releasing that little vingette . You can’t phone your bank or insurance company these days without everything being recorded. Someone should just ask them t if we can listen to it and , if permission is denied, ask them what they’re hiding.

     

     

    2. Is there register of outside interests with Referees or generally for SFA staff, such as exists for Local Authority councillors? If not , why not ? For example. see this chap, Norman MacLeod,an SNP Councillor for Pollokshields, who with admirable candour makes public, in the register of interests, that he is a Mason, both member and former Office Bearer. Link here: https://www.glasgow.gov.uk/councillorsandcommittees/member.asp?id=779&t=Councillor+Norman+MacLeod. That handshake is every bit as flagrant as Tiny Wharton in his big blazer when things were all in black and white and newsreels mysteriously got lost between Mount Florida and Park Gardens . Again, someone should just ask the SFA outright if Steven McLean is a mason and if they won’t answer ask for an explanation.

     

     

    New Scotland, same bigots.

  18. geordie munro

     

     

    10:18 on 22 April, 2015

     

    “I’m lying flat oot with a bad back….”

     

     

    Jamesgang,

     

     

    That’s nothing…Celtic have four.

     

     

    Eddiefitzgerald csc :)

     

     

    ———

     

     

    Read that just as the latest spasm kicked through. Mibbee I’m in bleedin labour!!!

     

     

    Nurse. Nurse. Call the midwife!

     

     

    HH jamesgang

  19. Anyway, back to the Roll Of Dishonour:

     

     

    Hun Monkeys:

     

     

    Craig Thompson

     

    Steven McLean

     

    Alan Muir

     

    Dallas

     

    Dallas

     

    Kenny Clark (oh yes he is)

     

    Huns

     

    Hun Apologists

     

    Adrian Durham

     

    The Queen

     

    Her Family

     

    Broxy Bear

     

    Marti Pellow

     

    The Ginger Drummer

     

    Alex Salmond (oh yes he is)

     

    SMSM

     

    ISIS

     

    Nazis

     

    Hannibal Lecter

     

    King William of Orange

     

    Goat-pumping Masons

     

    Orangemen

     

    Orangeweemin

     

    Jimmy Bell

     

    Jimmy Bell’s boy

     

    Lord Nimmo Smith

     

    David Murray

     

    Mo Johnston (spit)

     

    Sauron

     

    Darth Vader

     

    Butcher Bill

     

    Robert Carlyle

     

    Alan McGhee

     

    Simon Cowell

     

    Dirty Den

     

    Nick Cotton

     

    Andy Cameron

     

    Al-Quaeda

     

    Osama Bin laden

     

    Mr.MacKay from Porridge

     

    Attila

     

    Grover from the Muppets

     

    Cookie Monster

     

    Vlad the Impaler

  20. BRTH – fascinating

     

     

    I think I’ve now reached the point where I’ve learned more from CQN than I did at school!

     

    And I was a wee (not very bright) swot!

     

     

    Another wee while on here and my 8 years at uni (sorry TD! ;-) will also have been eclipsed.

     

     

    HH jamesgang

  21. time for change on

    BRTH

     

    the change had to be made at the time…reelection was merely condoning the behaviour….was there only one possible champion in Scottish football or the election rules not sufficiently robust?

  22. Up over the goal when I say strikers I mean the goal scoring types :) Not the non goal scoring strikers that john park and peter lawell have brought to the club

     

    If the four you mentioned stokes is a classic non scoring striker Gudetti has his head up his ar@e and the other one had personal issues

     

    So we have one

     

    A club our size and we have one option

     

    Not good enough

  23. 67heaven,

     

     

    I think there has been one or two games in the past that have been shown at the same tim, but happens rarely happens.

     

     

    I’m pretty sure we even had one on the same day but had to be early.

     

     

    Wishing I hadn’t passed up on a ticket now ;)

     

     

    HH

  24. GlassTwoThirdsFull on

    Presumably Meekings defence will be that the ball wouldn’t have gone in the net as it would have been blocked by Leigh Griffiths (like everything else).

     

    They will most likely swallow that.

  25. sydneytim @ 10:40,

     

     

    Hope all’s good down under.

     

     

    “You have to ask the question do we have two players we can play up front Neil had the same problem Lack of investment up front. Too many failed cheap projects

     

     

    Well the way I see it we have been sorely lacking in the striker department.

     

     

    I like Leigh Griffths but the fact is we need two strikers of a higher calibre – if we are serious about the UCL then a very good sriker.

     

     

    Still I don’t agree with the lack of investment during NL’s time. I believe Neil had a blind spot when it came to Hooper, he thought he was better than he was and he thought Gary would stay.

     

     

    Of course by the time he was gone we were well into the prospects and project era and the chances of Celtic splashing out to ensure we had a good striker in place was low.

     

     

    Ronny has already identified this position as a weakness and I believe he has the ear of the Board and eye for a player necessary to get the right guy on.

     

     

    I certainly hope so.

     

     

    Hail Hail

  26. Jamesgang,

     

     

    Sorry neebs :)

     

     

    Cracker and Desmond from Lost are my fav fictional Celtic fans

     

     

    HH

  27. I for one now want CO standing in the middle of the tracks when the accountability train comes thundering over the hill.

  28. NegAnon2

     

    08:49 on

     

    22 April, 2015

     

    Burgas Hoops did the SB renewal have a cigarette style warning on it saying by buying this season ticket you are supporting institutional racism in scotland – football games are rigged?

     

     

    The SNP will never repeal the OB act – they are using it to keep timmy down, Its a vote winner in scotland.

     

     

    —————————————————

     

     

    Sorry for the late reply Neg. i think it’s a fair price plus i get my CTV with the SB i’ve only to pay for the upgrade to HD, so it’s a win win for me. It also lets a few folk who possibly couldn’t afford to get to Celtic matches.

     

     

    The games rigged. Well i’ve watched rigged football ever since emigrating so it comes as no surprise, in Bulgaria the whole population knows it’s rigged with black ruski money, in Turkey half of them are serving prison time, only diff is they all know it and still attend (go figure eh?)

     

     

    It’s hard to stop supporting the only club you have an affinity with, so i’ll keep paying and sending my e-mails to mark my disappointment in the Masonic cabel that runs most of scoddland anyway.

     

     

    I dont do politics on a football blog ………………………..sorry -))

  29. GM

     

     

    The spasms were indeed contractions.

     

    I’ve just given birth to a beautiful girl.

     

    I’m calling her Georgina Munro!

     

     

    HH jamesgang

  30. Brogan Rogan Trevino and Hogan supports Oscar Knox, MacKenzie Furniss and anyone else who fights Neuroblastoma on

    Time for change

     

     

    All I can say that some of what we know now was deliberately hidden and concealed at the relavenet time.

     

     

    There is more that has still been concealed.

     

     

    Remember Longmuir and Ballantyne being smuggled out the back door at Hampden because some SFL chairmen were going to lynch them when they found out just what Longmuir had been getting paid and that Ballantyne had kept the information from them?

     

     

    The lack of professionalism and business knowledge in Scottish Football 2 years ago let alone 4 years ago was breath taking.

     

     

    So much so that people within the game simply did not believe some of what they were being told and so were not really conscious of either threat or danger or unprofessionalism or bias or whatever.

     

     

    Achieving change, getting someone else to do a full time professional job in a different way is not easy.

     

     

    The easy way is that you do things the way that they have always been done and by the same kind of people.

     

     

    At the time, first no one knew what was going on, then they didn’t want to admit what had happened, then they were scared to change things in case they made them worse and so on it goes.

     

     

    Anyway, I am way out but Res 12 is like a slow juggernaut it ploughs on relentlessly.

     

     

    Occasionally, it is given a new engine when someone officially or semi officilly says something or expresses a point of view which is so ludicrous and so damning that they are asked ” You can’t seriously expect anyone to believe that happened or allow it to happen again, can you?” — and at that point you break down another barrier, and another wall.