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Scott Brown, agents and Moneyball

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By on CQN BLOG & Comments

Scott Brown’s injury-enforced absence from the team in recent weeks has at least taken heat of his contract situation but that will change in January, when he is back in the team and available to sign a pre-contract agreement.  Neil Lennon reports that Celtic have met Scott’s terms but have declined to meet his agent’s demand.

Agent’s often have exclusive representation agreements with players which guarantee the agent a cut of any contract signed when the agreement is active.  5% of a four or five year contract for a top-earning Celtic player could easily reach £300k, or £360k including vat.  This is a lot of money for the player to pay out of his after-tax income so what commonly happens is the agent uses his exclusive deal with the player to negotiate a pay-off from the club instead of acting for the player.  Unlike the player, a club can reclaim vat and pays before, not after tax, so the same money going to the agent costs the combined player/club less.

It’s often the case, however, that the agent’s fee paid by the club has little resemblance to the percentage the agent would get representing the player.  While a player has an exclusive deal with an agent, a buying club has three deals to agree: the selling club’s fee, the player’s wages and the agent’s fee.

Big agent fees don’t necessarily mean bad business for the buyer, as the agent may well have made a deal achievable at a purchase price which would not have been otherwise possible, but clubs are typically more reticent when it comes to paying agents to renew contracts for their existing players.  One (then) SPL chairman told me he had a flat £500 tariff for such deals.

Artur Boruc concluded his last contract with Celtic without an agent.  At the time he explained that he would need an agent if he was moving club but didn’t need one to negotiate a predetermined level on the Celtic pay structure.  This would have saved Celtic money and might have earned Artur an extra bonus.

Scott Brown is not in this situation.  If he is offered a contract of around £6m over five years, after 50% tax and 12% (?) national insurance (which Celtic and staff pay…), his take home pay from the contract will be considerably less.  5% of the contract could end up looking like 14% of take home pay after vat is added.

Celtic will also be alert to the dangers of precedent.  If a player’s ‘advisor’ can get a significant pay-day out of a contract renewal there is no incentive for the player to conclude a deal with Celtic without an advisor, indeed, there is incentive to get one involved.

I’ve no information whatsoever on what is going on with Scott’s contract but the portents don’t look promising.

A couple of years ago we spoke about the excellent Why England Lose and its predecessor, Moneyball.  Two books that sought to explain how to find value in football and baseball respectively.  The Brad Pitt movie, Moneyball, based on the events analysed in the book, is now out.  Not sure making a drama out of statistics is wise but I’ll need to check it out.

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  1. thomthethim on

    Auld Neil Lennon heid says:

     

    29 November, 2011 at 16:58

     

     

     

    Says it all really.

     

     

    Echoes of my earlier discussion with the Exiled Tim. Players hold all the aces.

     

     

    Celtic and perhaps Arsenal, amongst the big clubs, are two who are trying to operate within their means.

     

     

    You and I can go back a fair bit in our Celtic lives.

     

     

    For me, I can’t recall a time when the club were run better.

     

     

    For all that Bob Kelly was an honourable man and an able legislator from his time at the SFA, the club was not well run.

     

     

    As I have said repeatedly, I am willing to wait until the Rangers turmoil reaches a conclusion before I reassess my emotional committment to the Scottish game.

     

     

    I will always be a Celtic man, but, I cannot any longer buy into the Crooked Game, if that is how it pans out.

  3. Henriks Sombrero on

    Seven Fishes Four Steaks says:

     

    29 November, 2011 at 16:51

     

     

    It’s fantastic television. My wife and I watched TEN episodes the weekend before last. Just because we were desperate to find out what happened next !

  5. malkyd on

    hankray says:

     

    29 November, 2011 at 12:33

     

    Scott Brown has been a much improved player since Neil Lennon took over as manager of the club. Brown had been playing some of his best football before being laid low with another injury.

     

     

    share

     

     

    hail hail Hankray

     

     

    Still too eratic for my liking. Gets booked and fouls uneccessarily – admitted he’s been unlucky with injuries. But still lacks the skill and nuance to perform as a commanding midfielder. If he leaves we are okay, Wanyama is younger, hungrier and more composed than Brown will ever be! Without KI and Brown the midfield is more solid in my opinioin. hail hail

  7. Auld Neil Lennon heid on

    thomthethim says:

     

     

    29 November, 2011 at 17:12

     

     

    Me too. The thing about the EBT usage and more importantly the unwillingness to admit it was using taxpayers money – even IF legal- to gain football supremacy, tells me all I need to know about the mindset we are up against.

     

     

    The integrity of our game is being flushed down the toilet and every day of denial makes it more difficult for it to recover.

  8. thomthethim on

    Awe Naw,

     

     

    I have repeatedly stated that I am on hold as to how much committment I can give, should we facilitate a “soft landing” to the huns.

     

     

    I don’t play in a crooked game, hence I have been advocating resigning from Scottish football, should it be necessary.

     

     

    The review I posted about, was not exclusive to Celtic, but was an author’s hypothesis on how people’s thought processes are arrived at.

     

     

    It makes sense to me,i.e. some people base their opinions on others by how they view that person generally and how emotionally involved in the subject uner review.

     

     

    Others take a more dispassionate, logical view.

     

     

     

    “The excuses that you seem keen to trot out do not wash any more.”

     

     

    I am not trotting out unwashed escuses.

  10. Jeg er Neil Lennon-Greeninbingley on

    Re post by Big Nan 14.43

     

     

    I might be paranoid, but suggest that publishing Prof Gallagher’s Edinburgh home address (if that is what it is) is not a good idea.

  11. Kojo on

    Sir Paul

     

     

    Jings!

     

     

    You sure know yer way… aroon… Aroon Aroon A Ring A Rosies— Roon Table!!

     

     

    Looking fur a Joab?

     

     

    Ah’m Very..Impressed.

     

     

    Kojo

  13. THE EXILED TIM on

    ttt

     

     

    If the club assist the hun with a new co or whatever, I believe that Celtic as we know will die with the hun.

     

     

    I hope the current board realise this as many, many people like ourselves will walk away, and I do not think the club could survive that.

     

     

    I do not envy their position, the biggest gamble in the history of Celtic is happening as we speak, and they most certainly have to make the right decision.

  14. thomthethim on

    *apologies for the spelling mistakes.

     

     

    I don’t have an i pad, i phone or predictive text.

     

     

    They are all my own work.

     

     

    Awe Naw,

     

     

    Enjoyed the discourse. Next time you are in North West Donegal, stop by…and you can clean up my gas driven computer.:<)

  15. Kojo on

    There is nae room at the Model…Fur Broonie..

     

     

    Awe the Beds are Taken.

     

     

    He wull jist need tae go elsewhere..

     

     

     

    and..

     

     

    Good Riddance.. Say Ah.

     

     

    Kojo

  18. Serge (10) Tommy Burns on

    Scott Brown will sign his contract Tomorrow giving Everyone at the Club a lift before kick off. I’ll be glad to see him stay but i dont think He will stay long term. He will no doubt want to try the EPL & atleast under a new contract the Club will get a good fee for him if he is on top of his game when he wants to leave in a season or 2. I think now is the time for someone else to become Captain, Let Scott concentrate on getting back to full fitness & playing the way we all know he can. I hope he plays Tomorrow night, On a cold rainy night in Glasgow i dont think the Spaniards will enjoy a pumped up Scott Brown in their faces. He will give 100% as he always does.

  20. Awe_Naw_No_Annoni_Oan_Anaw_Noo on

    ThomThetim

     

     

    maybe it is difficult to review without having read the book.

     

     

    I suppose most experiences are just based on emotion logic and prejudice.

     

     

    I disagree however with the assertion that if we are emotionally involved then logic can and usually does go out the window.

     

     

    Btw If I come round to fix your computer their is a good chance that it will end up going out the window also ;-)

     

     

    Hail Hail

  22. Jobo Baldie on

    Good evening friends.

     

     

    I see that the Breaking Bad fan club is out in force again so I’ve finally been convinced. Where can I get it on DVD – available in shops or is it online from good old US of A (and do such DVDs play OK in the UK?)

     

     

    Questions, questions…

     

     

    Jobo

  23. Awe_Naw_No_Annoni_Oan_Anaw_Noo on

    Celtic v Hearts Ticket Prices

     

    By: Newsroom Staff on 29 Nov, 2011 16:56

     

    IN response to a misleading report in the Edinburgh Evening News, Celtic Football Club would like to clarify the following:

     

     

    Celtic Football Club offered tickets to Heart of Midlothian to be directly distributed to Hearts supporters for the upcoming game on December 10 at Celtic Park. However, they did not wish to do this.

     

     

    It was therefore agreed between the clubs that Celtic FC would sell tickets directly to Heart of Midlothian fans, something which Hearts do for Celtic supporters for matches at Tynecastle.

     

     

    The price of a ticket for the Hearts match was reduced from £32 to £28 in season 2009/10. This price was held for season 2010/11 and a small increase of £1 was introduced in season 2011/12 in line with all SPL clubs within their category.

     

     

    The Special Delivery charge is applied at fans’ discretion, although it is recommended by Celtic FC to guarantee ticket arrival. Should the fan choose not to have tickets sent by Special Delivery, then tickets will be sent by standard post.

     

     

    A small booking fee of £1.50 is added to the ticket price of the £29 to cover the cost of administration of this ticket. This is common practice with most ticketing agencies throughout the United Kingdom.

     

     

    It should be noted that when Celtic visited Tynecastle in October, our supporters were asked to pay exactly the same prices – £29 for a match ticket and all booking and postal charges being the same.

  26. Kojo on

    My dear,dear,dear,friend..Serge

     

     

    Aboot the Broonie Situation…

     

     

    Pal…

     

     

    Me?

     

     

    Well.. Ah always look .afore Ah LEAP.. tae see..

     

     

    IF THERE HIZ BIN A CHANGE OF CIRCUMSTANCE/ CIRCUMSTANCES.

     

     

    Noo.. If Ah wur Broonie… Ah wid look very carefully..

     

     

    And..

     

     

    Ah wid See..

     

     

    Yep.. There his Bin a Chinge ..and A BIG BIG Change.. of Circumstances..

     

    since Ah last ..well… Looked.

     

     

    So Ah don’t blame him.. At awe,at awe..

     

     

    If, he he decided tae Shoot the Craw!

     

     

    Fur…

     

     

    Where in the Middy.. At this Time.. Under the New Set of Circumstances in Vogue…

     

     

    Wid He be GUARANTEED a STARTING POSITION?

     

     

    Is he bettah than..’

     

     

    Forrest?

     

     

    Is he bettah than,

     

     

    Kayal?

     

     

    Is he Bettah than,

     

     

    Vito?

     

     

    Is he Betth than,

     

     

    Sammi..(Don’t Answer That,yin!!!)

     

     

    Na…

     

     

    Pal.. Broonie ,if he has Any Mallam.. which Ah doot.. but he may get advice…

     

     

    He Must Leave Celtic.

     

     

    That is . If He wants a Guaranteed Starter”s Position in the Team

     

     

    Maks Sense Tae Me.

     

     

    Kojo

     

    yer pal..who likes ye aloater

  27. up_over_goal on

    Team for tomorrow

     

     

    Same again (with Gigant O’Phobia benched to accommodate Zaluska)

     

     

    One tiny worry – Matthews. The kid doesn’t look confident at the moment. Hope he gets back to his best because (and has anyone else noticed this?) there is no one else available at RB.

     

     

    TZL

  29. Seven Fishes Four Steaks on

    Jobo, best bets amazon. Buy season 1 and 2 together. You will be hooked. James Forrest got me addicted and got me copies of season 3 and 4. Can’t speak highly enough of the show. Got a few people in work addicted too!

     

     

    Auldheid, get watching season 4. Astounding acting writing and episodes that will live forever in my mind!!

     

     

    SffS

  30. !!Bada Bing!! on

    If Scott Brown wont pay his agent a small percentage of his salary to be Captain of Celtic…………..

  32. Kojo on

    Bada Bing

     

     

    The Additional Agent’s Fee is a Straw Man..

     

     

    It is a Crock.. A Ploy!

     

     

    Broonie, could easily ..eethur Pey the Fee Himsel..or.. Sack His Agent.

     

     

    If.. He really wanted tae.

     

     

    Kojo

  33. Serge (10) Tommy Burns on

    Kojo

     

     

    He may well leave but if he stays some games will suited for Him and some will be suited for others.

     

     

    All about squad depth i suppose. He is not certain to start every game that’s why I think the captaincy should be given to someone else. (Kayal).

     

     

    If He signs a new contract Tomorrow & plays great for the Club & we get a decent amount of cash for Him in a year or 2 then i’ll be happy.

     

     

    Serge

  34. Greensideup is also Neil Lennon on

    Awe Naw,

     

     

    caught your message last night, didn’t realize you were in Frankfurt. He was wanting to hook up with any German bhoys but he was also looking for some tax advice.

     

     

    I’ll ask Paul if he’s around to pass on my email addy to you or visa versa

     

     

    Cheers

     

     

    gsu

  35. McTALL on

    Afternoon bhoys looking for some help with some info. The inbetweeners movie is coming out on December the 12th in the UK, bu being overseas and with the chrimbo mail, if I order it from amazon i’ll be lucky to see it before the new year, and we’re planning on having a charity showing of it here in Bermuda. Does anyone know where i’d be able to find out when it will be available for download on I Tunes as the UK I Tunes store isn’t showing it yet

  37. Kojo on

    My dear,dear,dear,friend.. Serge

     

     

    Pal.. Ah like yer Scenario.. but…

     

     

    Ah canny see it take place.

     

     

    Fur..It wid Be faur too much of a “Come Doon”, fur Broonie..

     

     

    If ,he loast the Captaincy..and Found oot that He wid only be picked

     

    fur Soiten Games.

     

     

    Heck.. Ah may be Misjudging Him..

     

     

    Ah Mebbe, dinna realize the Shallowness of his Character..

     

     

    Ah figger the wey he Runs Aboot.. Snarling and Challanging that

     

    he has

     

     

    a .. whit is known in the Trade..

     

     

    ‘as

     

     

    “A Big Hit.. Fur Himsel”

     

     

    Shucks, pal. ye may be right.. and He Wull Go alang with yer

     

    painted Scenario…

     

     

    Whit Dae Ah know, really..

     

     

    Fur SURE?

     

     

    No much.. Except.. Ma Hat Size and Ma Social Security Number!

     

     

    You May be right..

     

     

    Kojo

     

    yer pal.. who likes ye aloater

  38. antrimkev on

    to be honest i really couldnt care if Brown signed a new deal or not – we paid 4.4 odd million for a guy thats Celtic career equals getting in that vermins face after scoring at ibrox / – not done enough.

     

     

     

    on a side note, being from Ireland i dont usually watch sportscene, i did on Sunday night – my god what an embarrasment to your country that is – Celtic score 5 and win, rangers score 0 and lose. that programme managed to show rangers scoring 5 in the intro and Celtic conceding 4 !!!!! (well 6 if you count the 2 replays of the squiggler)

     

     

    i can understand why they showed St Mirrens last win at Celtic, but where was the same footage of Killies last win at Kille v them?

     

     

    i wont be tuning in again

  40. Serge (10) Tommy Burns on

    Kojo

     

     

    Only my opinion & also in hope that we will get cash if a club comes in for him in the future. If that does happen then it will have meant he has played well for the club. And if that’s the case then we will all be happy. Who knows he might sign & be off in January, A bit like the Petrov situation. Things will be a bit clearer in a day or 2 so im sure we will get another discussion soon about it.

     

     

    Serge

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