My friends in Celtic, in the corresponding article a year ago I put our chances of losing the league as high as 30%. The rational behind this was:
- Newco were actually closer to us than the league table indicated and I expected them to improve,
- Teams have a shelf life and that (winning) Celtic squad looked to be nearing the end.
- It is by no means down to this alone, but I wrote, “If the virus gets into the Celtic squad, we will not win the league.” It did and we didn’t.
What I did not expect was the scale of the collapse. In my Celtic supporting experience, it is only eclipsed by season 1977-78, when a double winning Celtic team finished trophy-less, fifth in the league and out of Europe.
So where did it go wrong? I think we can go as far back as Brendan Rodgers not being released from his contract in August 2018 to allow him to go to China. The writing was on the wall then, so when he found a club that would both pay him a huge contract and meet the release terms on his Celtic deal, we should have been better prepared.
Let’s be clear: Neil Lennon did brilliantly taking over from Brendan. He kept the ship afloat, delivered the league and Scottish Cup, under the circumstances, that was an outstanding return. However, I doubt if even Neil himself believes he was wise to take the job permanently. This was a mistake by Neil, his advisors and most of all, by Celtic.
Objectively, what followed in season 2019-20 flies in the face of this assertion. Despite our customary Champions League qualification debacle, we finished ahead of Lazio and Rennes to top our Europa League group. The League Cup was won in memorable, if not convincing, style, nine-in-a-row was delivered, and when the Scottish Cup Final was eventually played, the quadruple treble.
It was as though the muscle memory at the club got us through that season but we all saw Newco boss us at Celtic Park. The portents were clear.
Should Neil have been relieved of his duties in October, when it was evident we were such a shambles on the field, despite winning all five trophies he competed for at that stage? Probably, but that question is all about who would come in to replace him. John Kennedy as an interim was not necessarily going to change direction. When Neil eventually left the building in February, our season was shot to pieces and he endured torrid months.
A clean break in February should have been a huge advantage, you get months to prep for the new season. Most of that time was wasted on a failed pursuit of Eddie Howe. Ange Postecoglou was sitting by his phone waiting on the call, had he been offer the position when Howe’s agent floated the first curve ball at Easter, we may still be in the Champions League. This was also a mistake.
So where are we now? If we go on to qualify for the Europa League group stage, last night’s defeat will have no more bearing on Celtic than the Lincoln Red Imps game in Gibraltar that started the Brendan Rodgers era. We were never going to reach the Champions League group stage this season through the League Route.
Our primary objective is to win the league; on the back of Wednesday night’s evidence, we look well short. There are, however, reasons to Park the Panic for a few weeks. We have spent over £12m on three players, only the cheapest of whom, 19-year-old Liel Abada, has played. Carl Starfelt (26) and Kyogo Furuhashi (also 26) are now available for selection, they will improve defence and attack.
We will sign a goalkeeper and a right back. Odsonne Edouard and Boli Bolingoli are almost certain to move on, both will be replaced and bring in enough cash to recruit for other areas of the team. I hope Ryan Christie extends his current deal, but if he goes, Ange has more scope to shuffle his pack.
This degree of player turnover should have happened a year ago. It didn’t because of that fabled record. I believe that without that looming milestone, Neil Lennon would also have gone last summer.
The decision to keep the squad together last year was thought less risky than undertaking significant change, especially with international travel restricted for most of the year and football curtailed, limiting, and in some circumstances eliminating, scouting opportunities. Faced with a choice between keep what you have or buy blind, Celtic chose the former (with a goalkeeping exception). Despite your hindsight, you would have made the same decision then.
We do not have a contemporary reference for the level of squad turnover that is currently underway. The only historical equivalent is 1997, when an equally chaotic summer thrust the club forward, coincidentally, when we broke the mould and looked for a manager with experience in Japan.
Despite the toll the pandemic placed on Celtic’s finances, the club is structurally strong. It has excellent long-term commercial deals that continue to perform, healthy ticket sales and a valuable squad that can be traded. We were always going to emerge from this crisis battered but not broken.
The same is not true at Ibrox. Newco need Champions League money this season, in losing the league, we opened a door for them to escape the consequence of Uefa Financial Fair Play. I bored you with the details on this before so will be brief here.
Newco have run a persistent operating loss since their formation in 2012, most recently reported at around £1m per month – and that was pre-pandemic. They are out of FFP road, only Champions League money will prevent a collapse. New investors cannot help here, for FFP, spend must be balanced by football generated income.
What happens in their qualification tie against Malmo and if they progress, in the subsequent play-off round, will go a long way to determine how competitive the league race is over the next decade. It is the sting in the tale of losing such a momentous title.
Right now our chances of winning the league are probably 30% – held back by so many unknowns, but despite the recent hit to finances, I expect the club to sanction a larger spend this summer than has ever happened at a Scottish football club. We can tip the balance in the weeks ahead.
The hurt of missing the 10 will last forever, or at least, until we get close enough to dream again. It is now part of our narrative. I hope we will look back on the experiences of season 2020-21 as a touchstone, the harsh lesson that propelled us forward.
Enjoy your Celtic and continue to take care.
Paul67.
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TURKEYBHOY on 30TH JULY 2021 12:29 PM
In the glimpses I saw last season,of Joe Hart and Ben Foster,Foster looked as good as ever.
I know who I would go for.
The amateur fortune teller gang on here are definitely losing their mojo.
I’ve now been accused of the following by people I’ve never met:
Only posting when it’s about politics.
Only posting to defend the SNP.
Only posting when it gets too Celtic cuddly.
Hoping that Celtic lose.
Being a hun.
Next I guess I’ll be a multi moniker super villain.
I’m a conundrum wrapped in an enigma.
A clean break in February should have been a huge advantage, you get months to prep for the new season. Most of that time was wasted on a failed pursuit of Eddie Howe. Ange Postecoglou was sitting by his phone waiting on the call
———
Are you serious????
Thank you The Matildas – great, gritty victory V not-so-Great Britain.
One of the most entertaining and exciting games you’ll get the chance to see.
We should sign the Matildas goalie and RB Carpenter!! Oi Oi Oi!!
Now to the article ;)
TL:DR
An utter shambles
Excellent article P67 probably the best for years IMO.
You’ll be accused of being a mineshafter at this rate.
In fact is it really you or one of those multi moniker sneaks?
No mistake from Lennon and his advisers, was he going to say no? Stop spreading the blame, it was a Desmond/ Lawwell decision.
Turkeybhoy, I left a reply for you yesterday.
TIMMY 7
It’s definitely not all about you.
H.H. Mick
0/4 in the ballot…
TIMMY7_NOTED
I think you’re a multi moniker villain.
:-)
Keep postin’ mate!
P67
In my Celtic supporting experience, it is only eclipsed by season 1977-78, when a double winning Celtic team finished trophy-less, fifth in the league and out of Europe.
——
Yes but 77-78 was the Dalglish hangover season.
Dalglish, Craig and Glavin scored 83 league goals between them in 76-77.
Craig and Glavin between them couldn’t hit 20 the next season.
No such excuse last season
As has often been said, 2019-20 Celtic ran on the final fumes of the Rodgers regime.
Squire………………..
Given the evidence of insight into Dermot’s modus operandi – my suspicions remain despite your assertion.
thanks anyway though.
Ernie
While it is no doubt that the perspective I suggest is perhaps more comforting on a level to some it’s also my belief that Dermot being professionally diplomatic in-front of the watching media.
And, you don’t know me btw…
……you only suspect you do.
HH.
If Sevco were to reach the CL, it surely would only be a temporary reprieve as their running costs would be unsustainable without CL income every season ?
Timmy7 – it is hard sometimes, but I try to play the ball and not the man. Variance of views should be welcome and debate encouraged. I don’t like the doom and gloom stuff, but I accept that is how people are feeling and that’s what they want to post.
I’ve been accused of all sorts on here too and probably in the early days I may have been accused correctly and was most definitely less tolerant of differing views.
Carry on regardless.
I’m generally a happy clapper by the way. But I probably dislike the board and the current model of ownership of celtic as much as any mineshafter. I’ll be accused of cognitive dissonance for that but I don’t think it is. We’ve got the financial basis to make good on the myriad mistakes the club has made. My non happy clapper take is that I don’t know if we have the competence. McKay has a job to do convincing us all.
Bunkum — rewriting history.
The Celtic Board has failed and needs a major revamp. No mention of the architect of our demise our illustrious CEO/DOF control freak whose decision making has been horrendous. Since the Cup final and the shower appointment it’s been one mistake after another. The structure is broken.
Also the club have lost the fans ; yes we buy season tickets and support the team —- however they are not getting one thin dime from many in the broader Celtic fanbase. This Celtic board is not fit for purpose.
I hope Love Island doesn’t clash with the Hearts game otherwise Mr Desmond will have a big decision to make.
All the rest is noise.
Thanks Paulo – a decent enough stocktake of where we are (tho failing to mention by name the now pantomime villains who took us to this car-crash (if not trophies after a 13 or so haul is a car crash for any other club).
Though the inventory’s seriously depleted, it’s a good reminder that we do have reserves to order in more.
However…
The persons that are doing the ordering (of Sheffield all-stars and Israeli hotshots) and whether they opt to buy the real deal – or cheap knockoffs – will really determine how ready we are to compete.
I’d still like a coupla hard men to balance our more cultured side – I feel that Carl might just fit that bill.
HH Paul!
State of the club report, summer 2021 17
BY PAUL67 ON 30TH JULY 2021 CQN BLOG & COMMENTS
My friends in Celtic, in the corresponding article a year ago I put our chances of losing the league as high as 30%. The rational behind this was:
How England made the Euro 2020 final
How England made the Euro 2020 final
Newco were actually closer to us than the league table indicated and I expected them to improve,
Teams have a shelf life and that (winning) Celtic squad looked to be nearing the end.
It is by no means down to this alone, but I wrote, “If the virus gets into the Celtic squad, we will not win the league.” It did and we didn’t.
What I did not expect was the scale of the collapse. In my Celtic supporting experience, it is only eclipsed by season 1977-78, when a double winning Celtic team finished trophy-less, fifth in the league and out of Europe.
So where did it go wrong? I think we can go as far back as Brendan Rodgers not being released from his contract in August 2018 to allow him to go to China. The writing was on the wall then, so when he found a club that would both pay him a huge contract and meet the release terms on his Celtic deal, we should have been better prepared.
ADVERTISING
Let’s be clear: Neil Lennon did brilliantly taking over from Brendan. He kept the ship afloat, delivered the league and Scottish Cup, under the circumstances, that was an outstanding return. However, I doubt if even Neil himself believes he was wise to take the job permanently. This was a mistake by Neil, his advisors and most of all, by Celtic.
Objectively, what followed in season 2019-20 flies in the face of this assertion. Despite our customary Champions League qualification debacle, we finished ahead of Lazio and Rennes to top our Europa League group. The League Cup was won in memorable, if not convincing, style, nine-in-a-row was delivered, and when the Scottish Cup Final was eventually played, the quadruple treble.
It was as though the muscle memory at the club got us through that season but we all saw Newco boss us at Celtic Park. The portents were clear.
Should Neil have been relieved of his duties in October, when it was evident we were such a shambles on the field, despite winning all five trophies he competed for at that stage? Probably, but that question is all about who would come in to replace him. John Kennedy as an interim was not necessarily going to change direction. When Neil eventually left the building in February, our season was shot to pieces and he endured torrid months.
A clean break in February should have been a huge advantage, you get months to prep for the new season. Most of that time was wasted on a failed pursuit of Eddie Howe. Ange Postecoglou was sitting by his phone waiting on the call, had he been offer the position when Howe’s agent floated the first curve ball at Easter, we may still be in the Champions League. This was also a mistake.
So where are we now? If we go on to qualify for the Europa League group stage, last night’s defeat will have no more bearing on Celtic than the Lincoln Red Imps game in Gibraltar that started the Brendan Rodgers era. We were never going to reach the Champions League group stage this season through the League Route.
Our primary objective is to win the league; on the back of Wednesday night’s evidence, we look well short. There are, however, reasons to Park the Panic for a few weeks. We have spent over £12m on three players, only the cheapest of whom, 19-year-old Liel Abada, has played. Carl Starfelt (26) and Kyogo Furuhashi (also 26) are now available for selection, they will improve defence and attack.
We will sign a goalkeeper and a right back. Odsonne Edouard and Boli Bolingoli are almost certain to move on, both will be replaced and bring in enough cash to recruit for other areas of the team. I hope Ryan Christie extends his current deal, but if he goes, Ange has more scope to shuffle his pack.
This degree of player turnover should have happened a year ago. It didn’t because of that fabled record. I believe that without that looming milestone, Neil Lennon would also have gone last summer.
The decision to keep the squad together last year was thought less risky than undertaking significant change, especially with international travel restricted for most of the year and football curtailed, limiting, and in some circumstances eliminating, scouting opportunities. Faced with a choice between keep what you have or buy blind, Celtic chose the former (with a goalkeeping exception). Despite your hindsight, you would have made the same decision then.
We do not have a contemporary reference for the level of squad turnover that is currently underway. The only historical equivalent is 1997, when an equally chaotic summer thrust the club forward, coincidentally, when we broke the mould and looked for a manager with experience in Japan.
Despite the toll the pandemic placed on Celtic’s finances, the club is structurally strong. It has excellent long-term commercial deals that continue to perform, healthy ticket sales and a valuable squad that can be traded. We were always going to emerge from this crisis battered but not broken.
The same is not true at Ibrox. Newco need Champions League money this season, in losing the league, we opened a door for them to escape the consequence of Uefa Financial Fair Play. I bored you with the details on this before so will be brief here.
Newco have run a persistent operating loss since their formation in 2012, most recently reported at around £1m per month – and that was pre-pandemic. They are out of FFP road, only Champions League money will prevent a collapse. New investors cannot help here, for FFP, spend must be balanced by football generated income.
What happens in their qualification tie against Malmo and if they progress, in the subsequent play-off round, will go a long way to determine how competitive the league race is over the next decade. It is the sting in the tale of losing such a momentous title.
Right now our chances of winning the league are probably 30% – held back by so many unknowns, but despite the recent hit to finances, I expect the club to sanction a larger spend this summer than has every happened at a Scottish football club. We can tip the balance in the weeks ahead.
The hurt of missing the 10 will last forever, or at least, until we get close enough to dream again. It is now part of our narrative. I hope we will look back on the experiences of season 2020-21 as a touchstone, the harsh lesson that propelled us forward.
Enjoy your Celtic and continue to take care.
Paul67.
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17 COMMENTS
TURKEYBHOY on 30TH JULY 2021 12:30 PM
TURKEYBHOY on 30TH JULY 2021 12:29 PM
In the glimpses I saw last season,of Joe Hart and Ben Foster,Foster looked as good as ever.
I know who I would go for.
TIMMY7_NOTED on 30TH JULY 2021 12:31 PM
The amateur fortune teller gang on here are definitely losing their mojo.
I’ve now been accused of the following by people I’ve never met:
Only posting when it’s about politics.
Only posting to defend the SNP.
Only posting when it gets too Celtic cuddly.
Hoping that Celtic lose.
Being a hun.
Next I guess I’ll be a multi moniker super villain.
I’m a conundrum wrapped in an enigma.
SQUIRE DANAHER on 30TH JULY 2021 12:34 PM
A clean break in February should have been a huge advantage, you get months to prep for the new season. Most of that time was wasted on a failed pursuit of Eddie Howe. Ange Postecoglou was sitting by his phone waiting on the call
———
Are you serious????
QUADROPHENIAN on 30TH JULY 2021 12:36 PM
Thank you The Matildas – great, gritty victory V not-so-Great Britain.
One of the most entertaining and exciting games you’ll get the chance to see.
We should sign the Matildas goalie and RB Carpenter!! Oi Oi Oi!!
Now to the article ;)
THE BATTERED BUNNET on 30TH JULY 2021 12:36 PM
TL:DR
An utter shambles
TIMMY7_NOTED on 30TH JULY 2021 12:36 PM
Excellent article P67 probably the best for years IMO.
You’ll be accused of being a mineshafter at this rate.
In fact is it really you or one of those multi moniker sneaks?
!!BADA BING!! on 30TH JULY 2021 12:37 PM
No mistake from Lennon and his advisers, was he going to say no? Stop spreading the blame, it was a Desmond/ Lawwell decision.
!!BADA BING!! on 30TH JULY 2021 12:38 PM
Turkeybhoy, I left a reply for you yesterday.
MELBOURNE MICK on 30TH JULY 2021 12:39 PM
TIMMY 7
It’s definitely not all about you.
H.H. Mick
!!BADA BING!! on 30TH JULY 2021 12:39 PM
0/4 in the ballot…
PHILBHOY on 30TH JULY 2021 12:40 PM
TIMMY7_NOTED
I think you’re a multi moniker villain.
:-)
Keep postin’ mate!
SQUIRE DANAHER on 30TH JULY 2021 12:41 PM
P67
In my Celtic supporting experience, it is only eclipsed by season 1977-78, when a double winning Celtic team finished trophy-less, fifth in the league and out of Europe.
——
Yes but 77-78 was the Dalglish hangover season.
Dalglish, Craig and Glavin scored 83 league goals between them in 76-77.
Craig and Glavin between them couldn’t hit 20 the next season.
No such excuse last season
As has often been said, 2019-20 Celtic ran on the final fumes of the Rodgers regime.
BANKIEBHOY1 on 30TH JULY 2021 12:42 PM
Squire………………..
Given the evidence of insight into Dermot’s modus operandi – my suspicions remain despite your assertion.
thanks anyway though.
Ernie
While it is no doubt that the perspective I suggest is perhaps more comforting on a level to some it’s also my belief that Dermot being professionally diplomatic in-front of the watching media.
And, you don’t know me btw…
……you only suspect you do.
AN DÚN on 30TH JULY 2021 12:43 PM
If Sevco were to reach the CL, it surely would only be a temporary reprieve as their running costs would be unsustainable without CL income every season ?
—-
Just to follow up on this point, Rangers reached the CL group stages in 2009 & 2010 but went to the wall in 2012 in some part due to the failure to qualify in 2011.
Their current model is only sustainable with annual CL income imo.
Sorry lads, copy and paste nightmare on my part !
Mwahahahahahahaha! Yeezaraw DOOMED ah tell ye!
An Dun – I thought that too. Costs go up as well as income. Players have certain expectations and are likely to have certain contractual clauses re CL participation. The previous ibrox club were unable to turn a profit with regular CL participation. How are this mob going to do it? Close bros are owed, Dodgy Dave is owed, Big Mike is owed with only the question of how much to be determined.
CL money will keep them going but I don’t see how it changes the decade ahead.
If they win the league this season then it does start to look better for them. That’s where the real battle is.
However there is a house of cards football club in Glasgow. It isn’t in the East End though. If sevco slip up in the qualifiers the structural issues get ever deeper. I don’t expect them to slip up. More so I can prepare myself mentally for accepting that if it happens. But they certainly seem to have an expectation that the group stages are all but guaranteed. Their hubris never went away.
MULTI-MONIKER VILLAIN on 30TH JULY 2021 12:54 PM
Mwahahahahahahaha! Yeezaraw DOOMED ah tell ye!
——————————————————-
VG :-))
MULTI- MONIKER VILLAIN
Ye don’t fool me ERNIE!
:-)
Damn these pesky tourist drunks, thuv foiled us again!!
WhereThe GrassIsNoGreener CSC
“……Also the club have lost the fans ; yes we buy season tickets and support the team —- ”
:)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
:0
:)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
ROBERT TRESSELL/ LUCKY CODY
I respect intelligent debate and criticism when it’s deserved, do our board
deserve it ? yes feckin plenty.
But we all know that people come on here to disrupt the feel good factor of
the blog for malicious reasons, hence we get arguments, maybe a case in point
with that debate re- TIMMY 7 and I, and we could bat the ball backwards and forwards all
day/night and no one will win …except the multi monikered.
None so blind as those that cannot see.
H.H. Mick
Are we going to see Starfelt this weekend/
Does anyone know the whereabouts of Kyogo?
D :)
Philbhoy on 30th July 2021 12:40 pm
Got me, is your name Holmes? :-)
@Timmy…A while ago…..The proof of The Multi Challenged Moniker Maniac…
Was proven many years ago…When the said Gent ..Forgot he was arguing with himself…
And duly revealed all to everyone and his Granny…Whom as it turned out also posted..
Excitin times……..
So, only a year after signing a four year contract extension (with a hefty buy-out clause) Brendan Rodgers was looking for the door? Only weeks after this comment?
“We can be better next year. We set out to win three trophies, but I need to push them even harder next year. There are improvements we can make. We’ll go away, recover and come back with big motivation in the summer.”
Then this:
“We don’t want to stand still. How do we improve? We improve in Europe and in order to do that, it’s simple, it’s quality players.”
Maybe he didn’t get those quality players?:
https://www.celticquicknews.co.uk/pay-4m-or-wait-171-days-for-mcginn-pre-contract
Of course Celtic were absolutely desperate to keep him:
https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11787/11338821/celtic-will-allow-arsenal-to-approach-brendan-rodgers-says-clubs-majority-shareholder-dermot-desmond
Anyway, we’ve got the old firm back now and our partner club is not getting four and five goal thrashings from us now so all is good!
DAVID 66
Av heard he’s NIPPON about the Gallusgate.
H.H. Mick
I don’t think anyone can argue with any of that
:)
AD @ 12.53
You work in IT — don’t you?
RT @ 11.45 / Before the new article
Our structural weakness is that we are very dependent on our matchday income.
That is why the CL was so important to us
If we fail this season the season ticket sales could have.
If that happens we are in the financial doo doo.
The board need to keep the support on-side.
They are not doing a good job of that at the moment.
If the season ticket sales go south then the team will follow it.
We are paying very high wages for very poor performance.
That will take a lot of changing.
NB @ £22K pw must be a joke.
have = half — I blame it on the schools.
Like a lot on I have a opinion on what is going on at Celtic,and I don’t care who disagrees with me .Neil Lennon should have never been allowed to be the manager again after the Ross County semi final at Hamden all them years ago,I was at that game his team selection and tactics were all wrong ,(.not much changed last season)and I can tell you there were some angry Celtic Supporters around me and if they could have got a hold of him they would have strung him up that’s how these supporters felt that day,He goes to Hibs were he didn’t last long(they found out what kind of coach he was,so they got rid of him pronto)and were did he land back at Celtic ok he won a few things,but he inherited Brendans team ,then when some are shockingly told they were no longer needed at the club,Gordon,Sumonivic,Sinclair,Hayes,etc,thats when changes how the team were set up,the rest is history,
Oooooooo……… it’s a scandal
RobertTressell on 30th July 2021 12:44 pm
Cheers, and I agree with all of that, I think our positions are pretty close.
I’m very unhappy about the overall executive management of the club but it’s not a place I want to be in.
Trying to point out what appear, to me at least, to be obvious examples of dreadful management gets all sorts of accusations thrown your way.
The one that really grates me are those who accuse critical posters of enjoying seeing Celtic in its current state.
All the best.