My friends in Celtic, in the corresponding article a year ago I put our chances of losing the league as high as 30%. The rational behind this was:
- Newco were actually closer to us than the league table indicated and I expected them to improve,
- Teams have a shelf life and that (winning) Celtic squad looked to be nearing the end.
- It is by no means down to this alone, but I wrote, “If the virus gets into the Celtic squad, we will not win the league.” It did and we didn’t.
What I did not expect was the scale of the collapse. In my Celtic supporting experience, it is only eclipsed by season 1977-78, when a double winning Celtic team finished trophy-less, fifth in the league and out of Europe.
So where did it go wrong? I think we can go as far back as Brendan Rodgers not being released from his contract in August 2018 to allow him to go to China. The writing was on the wall then, so when he found a club that would both pay him a huge contract and meet the release terms on his Celtic deal, we should have been better prepared.
Let’s be clear: Neil Lennon did brilliantly taking over from Brendan. He kept the ship afloat, delivered the league and Scottish Cup, under the circumstances, that was an outstanding return. However, I doubt if even Neil himself believes he was wise to take the job permanently. This was a mistake by Neil, his advisors and most of all, by Celtic.
Objectively, what followed in season 2019-20 flies in the face of this assertion. Despite our customary Champions League qualification debacle, we finished ahead of Lazio and Rennes to top our Europa League group. The League Cup was won in memorable, if not convincing, style, nine-in-a-row was delivered, and when the Scottish Cup Final was eventually played, the quadruple treble.
It was as though the muscle memory at the club got us through that season but we all saw Newco boss us at Celtic Park. The portents were clear.
Should Neil have been relieved of his duties in October, when it was evident we were such a shambles on the field, despite winning all five trophies he competed for at that stage? Probably, but that question is all about who would come in to replace him. John Kennedy as an interim was not necessarily going to change direction. When Neil eventually left the building in February, our season was shot to pieces and he endured torrid months.
A clean break in February should have been a huge advantage, you get months to prep for the new season. Most of that time was wasted on a failed pursuit of Eddie Howe. Ange Postecoglou was sitting by his phone waiting on the call, had he been offer the position when Howe’s agent floated the first curve ball at Easter, we may still be in the Champions League. This was also a mistake.
So where are we now? If we go on to qualify for the Europa League group stage, last night’s defeat will have no more bearing on Celtic than the Lincoln Red Imps game in Gibraltar that started the Brendan Rodgers era. We were never going to reach the Champions League group stage this season through the League Route.
Our primary objective is to win the league; on the back of Wednesday night’s evidence, we look well short. There are, however, reasons to Park the Panic for a few weeks. We have spent over £12m on three players, only the cheapest of whom, 19-year-old Liel Abada, has played. Carl Starfelt (26) and Kyogo Furuhashi (also 26) are now available for selection, they will improve defence and attack.
We will sign a goalkeeper and a right back. Odsonne Edouard and Boli Bolingoli are almost certain to move on, both will be replaced and bring in enough cash to recruit for other areas of the team. I hope Ryan Christie extends his current deal, but if he goes, Ange has more scope to shuffle his pack.
This degree of player turnover should have happened a year ago. It didn’t because of that fabled record. I believe that without that looming milestone, Neil Lennon would also have gone last summer.
The decision to keep the squad together last year was thought less risky than undertaking significant change, especially with international travel restricted for most of the year and football curtailed, limiting, and in some circumstances eliminating, scouting opportunities. Faced with a choice between keep what you have or buy blind, Celtic chose the former (with a goalkeeping exception). Despite your hindsight, you would have made the same decision then.
We do not have a contemporary reference for the level of squad turnover that is currently underway. The only historical equivalent is 1997, when an equally chaotic summer thrust the club forward, coincidentally, when we broke the mould and looked for a manager with experience in Japan.
Despite the toll the pandemic placed on Celtic’s finances, the club is structurally strong. It has excellent long-term commercial deals that continue to perform, healthy ticket sales and a valuable squad that can be traded. We were always going to emerge from this crisis battered but not broken.
The same is not true at Ibrox. Newco need Champions League money this season, in losing the league, we opened a door for them to escape the consequence of Uefa Financial Fair Play. I bored you with the details on this before so will be brief here.
Newco have run a persistent operating loss since their formation in 2012, most recently reported at around £1m per month – and that was pre-pandemic. They are out of FFP road, only Champions League money will prevent a collapse. New investors cannot help here, for FFP, spend must be balanced by football generated income.
What happens in their qualification tie against Malmo and if they progress, in the subsequent play-off round, will go a long way to determine how competitive the league race is over the next decade. It is the sting in the tale of losing such a momentous title.
Right now our chances of winning the league are probably 30% – held back by so many unknowns, but despite the recent hit to finances, I expect the club to sanction a larger spend this summer than has ever happened at a Scottish football club. We can tip the balance in the weeks ahead.
The hurt of missing the 10 will last forever, or at least, until we get close enough to dream again. It is now part of our narrative. I hope we will look back on the experiences of season 2020-21 as a touchstone, the harsh lesson that propelled us forward.
Enjoy your Celtic and continue to take care.
Paul67.
497 Comments- Pages:
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SCULLYBHOY
The previous iteration out of the BigotDome owe Arsenal over £136,000 and the Undead have the absolute gall to invite them to a friendly 2 weeks ago. Brass neck. Blowtorch.
“Those standard Season Ticket holders, registered on My Celtic Matchday, who were successful in the FC Midtjylland ballot have not been included in the match ticket ballot for Dundee in an effort to give as many supporters as possible the opportunity to return to Paradise.
The ballots for the friendly matches against Preston North End and West Ham United were independent of competitive fixture ballots – however those who were successful for Preston North End were not be eligible for the second home friendly match against West Ham United, in order to give other supporters the chance to attend.
Should the next SPFL match still be at reduced capacity, those successful for FC Midtjylland and Dundee will be excluded to allow more Season Ticket holders who registered on My Celtic Matchday and haven’t been back to Paradise the chance to return for a competitive match. Once those supporters have tickets and if the capacity allows, then STHs who have already successful for a competitive match will be balloted for the remaining tickets”
We currently have 47 approved members of the Superbru Comp- Most of us have made our picks but I will give a shout out friendly reminder to BelmontVrian, St Tams, and Tirconnel who have yet to make any and to BGFC an fess 19 who have only done some. Nobody can see what your picks are until matches are underway but I will allow no hun shaming for those who have failed to predict a Livi win or draw (cos I have Sevco winning too)
CFM on 30TH JULY 2021 6:59 PM
Abramovic hasn’t been in the country for 3 years never mind been to a game
alas i think he has spent much of the last 3 weeks in the high court against an author/publishing allegations that his purchase of Chelski was at the push of Putin and the roll out to the west of russian capital expansion.
The origins of romans rise are tangled in the post Gorbachev and Yeltsins liberal approach
capital and so called privatizations.
welcome to cqn. your not are you? 😊
or are you a change of moniker?
hh
I’ve been talking to pals regarding the team we sent out during the week, and how it stands with the teams from the early nineties, 93/94 was maybe the worst season, this is the team sent out to play young boys, BONNER WDOWCZYK. GALLOWAY MCNALLY BOYD COLLINS. MCSTAY GRANT. MCGINLAY NICHOLAS PAYTON. That was the first round. We went through.
Scullybhoy.7.10
may i say i love that post.never tire of it.and every time another company pops up,lol
it happened.it is there for the rest of time.
:-)
hh
IniquitousIV on 30th July 2021 8:56 pm
SCULLYBHOY
The previous iteration out of the BigotDome owe Arsenal over £136,000 and the Undead have the absolute gall to invite them to a friendly 2 weeks ago. Brass neck. Blowtorch.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
What about – Susan Thomson Your Sonsie Face,
Glasgow, £40
Just a wee bit of ducking and diving.
The fecking hell CSC
An Tearmann on 30th July 2021 9:41 pm
Scullybhoy.7.10
may i say i love that post.never tire of it.and every time another company pops up,lol
it happened.it is there for the rest of time.
:-)
hh
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yet, it was all just a likeable rogue, or two, ducking and diving.
HH
JHBGlasgowHibs CSC
The scums run of good fortune in the transfer market is all down to Ross Wilson.His signings are not spectacular,but he gets what his bosses require.Free transfers,Lundstrom.Players of decent ability,in the last year of contract.Bought on the cheap.They have managed to form a decent squad for little transfer money
He has been a big asset to them.
Big G on 30th July 2021 9:39 pm
I’ve been talking to pals regarding the team we sent out during the week, and how it stands with the teams from the early nineties, 93/94 was maybe the worst season, this is the team sent out to play young boys, BONNER WDOWCZYK. GALLOWAY MCNALLY BOYD COLLINS. MCSTAY GRANT. MCGINLAY NICHOLAS PAYTON. That was the first round. We went through.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Some damn good players in that team, Big G – especially midfield.
SETTING FREE THE BEARS FOR RES. 12 & OSCAR KNOX on 30TH JULY 2021 9:24 PM
Just posted my selections.
At this moment I am having troubles accessing CS, apparently it thinks I’m a BOT, apparently Mrs BB agrees :)
I think the trouble is with this old steam powered laptop.
HH
Brian
Belmont Brian
Your picks are now accounted for- only remains to call them right. Nobody can see any competitor’s picks until the particular game has kicked off
The Lurkin Tim
If you are about- you are supposTed to make a prediction on all 6 games not just the Celtic game
SETTING FREE THE BEARS FOR RES. 12 & OSCAR KNOX on 30TH JULY 2021 10:02 PM
Thanks for your reply, do you know if anyone else is experiencing similar problems with CS ?
HH
Brian
https://wikifoundryimages.s3.amazonaws.com/zqVDUiZvY3LLubOB5HOcbQ409895
Was this Celtic’s worst season since 1966? The Board and team were all part of a conspiracy to stop the 10IAR in case R###### went bust and Celtic wouldn’t get into the English (was it the old First Division then?). So the conspiracy theory goes :–)
SFTB…ok,ta…will jump back on 👍
The conspiracy started in 74 and the downsizing continued until we had that squad?!
SFTB…done
AN TEARMANN on 30TH JULY 2021 9:34 PM
CFM = celtic40me given a Madmitch rebrand
I liked how he insisted on sticking with letters instead of using a number. Admirable dedication to the rules
SFTB
👍
TURKEYBHOY on 30TH JULY 2021 9:52 PM
You can’t ignore that they’ve put a squad together that won the league undefeated but a club like them needs to make money from player trading as well.
FUNNY,
Oor Billy
Nite spagetti hoops,
enjoy
https://youtu.be/suHIvvMLWUw
HH
Brian
BELMONTBRIAN on 30TH JULY 2021 10:28 PM
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That pointedly, is something akin to how Uncle Ange ended up getting the job in the last place.
https://youtu.be/A78qtLPRr6o
Goodnight grappling fans.
HH
Brian
BELMONTBRIAN on 30TH JULY 2021 10:40 PM
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That’s two goodnights that don’t make one.
Still looking for Tirconnell, BGFC and Fess19 to complete their predictions.
We are now up to 50 members
St Stivs @ 7.37
That’s a good mhate of mine, sent a whatsApp of picture to me when still at Airport
Longstanding member of the St Ninians Paul McStay bus
Tommy also a good friend
Hail Hail
TURKEYBHOY on 30TH JULY 2021 9:52 PM
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True enough but you’ve got to hand to King et al for backing Slippy all the way. JHB (earler post) was right in that sense, Sevco have balls alright.
CFM on 30TH JULY 2021 10:15 PM
AN TEARMANN on 30TH JULY 2021 9:34 PM
CFM = celtic40me given a Madmitch rebrand
I liked how he insisted on sticking with letters instead of using a number. Admirable dedication to the rules.
=================
och he is a shy and lovable wee rogue is our mitchy.prone to being lazy recently imo,using full words etc meaning readin a paragraph didnt have the usual wtf’s that.😊hope your good this seasons eve.👍
HH
AN TEARMANN on 30TH JULY 2021 11:08 PM
:) and you
Determined to enjoy watching Celtic again 👍
Ange Postecoglou has a number of free hits to go as credits. The Midtjylland debacle counts as two. Bitton should have been subbed ahead of his stupidity and in the second leg, deary me,
What was the training regime/schedule like that meant our squad were dead on their feat after 75 mins? Furthermore what on earth was going through his mind after Midtjylland scored the equaliser? Even the five a siders on here could tell you fresh legs were a must.
The substitutions came but were far too late and the deed was done.
I don’t buy into any nonsense Postecoglou deliberately denied the obvious in order to put pressure on the Board to sharpen their pencils quicker.
Then we had the unsightly spectacle of Ange blaming Dom for the defeat! I tell you one thing that’s not two, if Postecglou is cracking under pressure this early McKay should be firing a cannon warning over his head to get a grip or do one before the going gets tough.
Desmond and Lawwell put us into this mess and Mckay has been given a clean slate to work it out. At this first sign of pressure Ange buckles and goes crying for his mammy. Not good enough.
Like I said, Postecoglou has a number of free hits as credits, he had better not waste them covering his arse.
See yeez all down at the demo. Get yersel on a Quantas Melbourne!
Sack the Board!!
When Saturday Comes Around – The Blarney Pilgrims
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIfdehk-MFk
PETERLATCHFORDSBELLY on 30TH JULY 2021 11:31 PM
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What demo?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6RWzqjQlRI
Duntocher Wullies – It Had To Be Celtic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAhpmixGPVw
My route on matchday will now change.
via Calton and the beautiful St Marys,
i would urge all when time permits,to pay a visit to An Gorta Mor memorial
https://twitter.com/antearmann1967/status/1421244159256670213?s=19
HH
AN TEARMANN on 31ST JULY 2021 12:11 AM
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Well said AT. I live in hope our UK security forces are keeping a close eye on St Mary’s. Their beloved UK Nazis are trying to burn our Churches out, one by one.
Granda Was A Celtic Man · The Blarney Pilgrims
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHwa7Md2kjc