I read one highly unlikely article yesterday suggesting we were going to sign Alfred Finnbogason AND were still bidding big money for Kevin Doyle ahead of an 11pm tonight signing deadline. It’s hard to be so wrong in so few words, but this one hit the mark.
Alfred is a target but, and this is the key point the newspapers have not picked up on, he is one of four strikers Celtic are seriously considering at the moment. He looks the part, as do the others, I am assured, but the deal has to be right for Celtic to move.
Our strategic plan is to buy players at a comparatively low price, develop them on the Champions League stage, and sell high, in order to be able to build a team capable of competing further in the Champions League.
To do this we need to buy from the right markets, at the correct age and on the right wage. There will be exceptions to this rule. A few weeks shy of his 27th birthday, Dirk Boerrigter is unlikely to appreciate greatly, but teams need experience to tackle the Champions League, as well as some specific skills, so Dirk is here for what he can give today, not to be the next £12m exit.
We will see more business like Wanyama and Hooper. Before Celtic agree a deal for Finnbogason there would need to be a gap between the buy price and the projected valuation IF the player is a success. If this gap doesn’t exist we will do business elsewhere. Sticking to strategy is more important than pursuing a target like some latter-day David “this time we’re really going for it” Murray.
You can also forget about the 11pm deadline tonight. That is only relevant if we need two or more new players to overcome Shakhter Karagandy. If we want to add Finnbogason, or any ONE other player, the deadline for a Wildcard signing is a day before the game, or pretty much when the team leaves Glasgow Airport, so there is no effective deadline tonight. As such, I would be surprised if a deal was concluded today.
Right now, at Lennoxtown and Celtic Park, people are deciding how to invest our money. We have the kind of choices consistent with a well-run club, but while we are a well-run club, we can’t get caught up in the hubris.
We are living through some big changes in our financial model. Revenue from domestic football (season ticket sales-now discounted, Rangers game £42-per-head ticket sales, hospitality sales, commercial income) has fallen, or disappeared completely (I reckon we’re in the region of £9m p.a. down in these areas, we’ll have a better indication when accounts are released later this month). On top of this, the club was running at a loss without Champions League football or significant player sale (£7m for season 2011-12, the last we have accounts for), and as well as some income streams falling, costs have risen.
I heard that one ‘St Mirren’ supporting journo on Radio Scotland on Saturday said with last season’s Champions League income and money from player sales, Celtic have a £40m transfer kitty.
In the name of all that is sacred, nine years after ‘What the Celtic fans want to know is where is all the Seville money?’, the same nonsense is being peddled. As far as some are concerned, we are back where we started on CQN. The first thing you do with your money is pay your bills, including tax… there is no creditor left behind at Celtic. After they are taken care off you can look to invest in footballers.
This year, the underlying loss has been flipped because of player sales and that Champions League income, although not by nearly as much as journos who regard researching accounts before commenting on finance as an unnecessary indulgence, will tell you. Without Champions League income (this season potentially £14m plus any prize money earned), the money from Wanyama alone would not make this a profitable season, even before the spend on our new signings.
The road ahead is clear. Get into the Champions League as often as possible without allowing any individual failure to cause a collapse, sign players who will flourish at that level, sell them for a profit, repeat and reinforce all aspects of strategy with an improved budget.
Over any business period, every penny which comes into the club, has been, and will continue to be, spent. Our money will be invested in footballers who will appreciate in value, and who will give Celtic their best chance of pushing further in the Champions League on a persistent basis. It will not rest in a bank account earning a pittance in interest. The strategy is ambitious and sustainable but not reckless.
A year ago some wondered if Celtic could survive, never mind flourish, without a Rangers-branded club in the league. If successful, this strategy will not only allow the club to flourish, it may even result in higher long-term income than Celtic achieved while locked in an arms race with a former rival, with a corresponding improvement in Champions League achievement.
Is Alfred Finnbogason the man, is he better than the others we’re looking at, good enough to excel in the Champions League? I’ve no idea, but he is just one detail in the wider Celtic strategy.
Stick to plan, Celtic.
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Hooops
I got a warning message about duplicate posts.
V
Have we dusted off the No 7 jersey yet??
canamalar1
18:53 on
12 August, 2013
Dan,
I don’t believe Paul is being 100% truthful with his assessment of the finances, I believe this has been managed to frighten people into believing we are not in rude health, the reference to Murray is simply scaremongering, no one has asked the board to emulate Murray yet every time someone suggests spending a few quid (money we were told would be spent) we are greeted with the same drivel ‘do you want to end up like rangers’ it’s turning into a joke.
—————————————————————————
Canamalar 1,
Apologies for not replying sooner, had to pop out after I had posted. Thank you for your reply, much appreciated.
Have to be honest and confess the financial sides of business are beyond my understanding at times and I respect Paul’s view as I understand he has experience of running a successful business and has an understanding of these things a lot more than I have.
My thoughts on reading his piece is that we might not be as healthy in income as I thought. With respect I don’t think Paul is deliberately trying to scaremonger us with his article. Think he is trying to educate and be realistic with what’s available and how the finances work. Obviously it’s his take and opinion on how he sees it.
I’ve had a wee read back since I came back in and very interesting perspective from different posters on Paul’s article.
For me I would need it to be simplified like how much income has come in, (transfers, season tickets, salaries saved from players who have moved on, against outgoings new players in, increase to salaries of current staff, and overheads, stadium, other staff (non players salaries) etc. Don’t know if it’s possible to be that simplistic and come up with a figure.
One thing I would agree which has been stated from a lot of posters on here, is that adequate players should be in place if we know we are going to be selling quality players, especially at this time of year when we are trying to qualify for the pot of gold that is the champions league group stages and also so vital to our income streams to achieve our long term plan.
For me the timing of letting Vic and Hoops go before the last qualifying round without replacements being in place (and by that I mean in the team playing pre-seasons friendlies before the qualifying games getting up to speed and knowing their fellow players) has been reckless and does not make sense to me.
So without fully understanding the financial picture I very much rely on Paul and my fellow bloggers here for informed and interesting takes on the financial position.
Keep it coming folks, much appreciated. Both sides of the argument make interesting reading.
Dan
Vmhan
21:50 on 12 August, 2013
nice bit of tautology
gsu,
You could be right, some of the arguments I’m seeing are straight out of gullible huns r us
Burnley78
With respect, I haven’t seen a single post asking for the club to spend what they don’t have.
HH
Can … hen
Singaporean investors … finance company called orlit
From twitter and replies to previous post.
#JimAndWaltsBargain So the sugar daddy can buy cheap.
BooooooM its aw in the timing eh?! Get MSM onside belittle Green & co in rags Hmmm …
jude2005 is Neil Lennon \o/
21:49 on
12 August, 2013
*******
King is in South Africa amigo, but of course you knew that, it was likely a typho :¬)
V
canamalar1 @ 21:48
Orlit. Only £400, 000
Vmhan
Ta for that. I knew it was down there somewhere.
Fair play to Paul, on with Tommy Gold talking about todays blog from about 94 mins onwards.
http://www.spreaker.com/user/glasgow-radio-online/sack_clyde_support_celtic_fan_radio
respect.
gebhoy
PF
For many years there celtic support was spoon fed by an agenda ridden media.
Where’s the Seville money etc vs lauding murrays largesse. Abusing fergus as rangers swooped in private jets.
Paul created a blog to balance this. Yet all we see is a different breed of malcontent. Some with good reason and some who cannot allow anyone in authority to get credit for a job well done.
Ok DD and PL do play it with a straight bat. DD does not put anything in or accept a club haemorrhaging cash. Nor does he take out. PL is properly remunerated vs his comparative set. Our books are balanced.
We have a tough job to recruit to a 4th rate league with limited global exposure. Short of a possible 6 CL games a season. Why would any real talent cone to us. The gap has widened.
We have a large gap in interest due to lack of genuine domestic rival or competition. Revenue gap for similar reasons which can be filled but ultimately there is a cap to our potential.
I write this watching re run after re run of EPL history with not a glimpse of Celtic in sight on 6 South African sports channels. An EPL which is given a page in most newspapers each day here.
It is not plain sailing trying to plot a growth strategy for the club against thus backdrop. Especially with such an in built bias in our society and media against the club.
Apologies (to you as a real celtic supporter) if I get concerned when i see genuine malcontent touch paper being fuelled by those who are less genuine in their support for our club on what is a supposed Celtic forum.
Paul maybe putting out a board agenda or his version of the situation. Either way it is better unformed than the old media or many posters on here.
And for extreme cynics such as canamalar. Celtic does produce audited accounts in a timely manner so trust is not an issue.
Dan,
That’s exactly what I meant by not being 100% truthful, I expect he could have easily put a decent simplified summary of the finances together which would have shown us in rude health but chose to scaremonger by bringing in Murray and implying spending on players would lead to financial meltdown. It’s becoming lazy journalism.
twists n turns
21:26 on
12 August, 2013
Wee big George
You are first on CQN to spell Shacked up lager shandys name correctly.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Wee BGFC currently laughing his head off at that one (and very pleased with himself at the other replies – thanks!!).
HH
BGFC
Charles Kickham,
re tautology
Charles, that word never came up during my BSc Hons course, I looked it up and got superfluity!
None the wiser CSC
:¬)
better call Saul
canamalar1
21:48 on 12 August, 2013
hen1rik,
Can’t remember who, I just remember a commotion about the Asian consortium threatening a winding up order
——————-
That was Orlit from Singapore I think.
As Phil Mac says they still Haven’t gone away(they are just trying to work out who to claim) with all the switcheroos
I see the butchers apron mob are heading to Gibraltar for a bit sabre rattling.
….pfayr
20:50 on 12 August, 2013
Supersutton
We gamble with CL qualification by not improving our squad
At least it means that the league is a wee bit more of a challenge
Not sure i appreciate your logic
====================
No matter how much you spend it’s always a gamble. The hard part is knowing when the odds are in your favour or how much risk you want to take.
We the players we have right now are we favourites to progress? I’d say we are. So how much do you want to spend to get the odds even more in our favour? And what do you do if you spend all your money and against all odds, we don’t progress.
At no point did I say we shouldn’t improve the team. I think we will if it is possible within the limitations we have. Meaning we may offer sufficient for a player but are out bid by wealthier teams. Or the player may just not fancy playing in the SPFL, like Hooper, Wanyama and Wilson.
As I said, to maximise profit the team needs to be successful. I’m sure those responsible for running or club are acutely aware and are doing their darndest to get it right.
Burnley78,
Yep they certainly do put out the audited accounts in a timely manner, no doubt about it, yet it takes chartered accountants months to find the hidden truth in those published accounts for example DD receiving £1/2M a year in perpetuity for a loan he refuses to allow the club to pay back, cynical I should bloody say so.
That time of year again – fantasy football!
fantasy.premierleague.com
If you played last year, just redo your team for this year and you are able to renew yourself in the CQN league
If you are new, 5 minute registration, set up your team and then use this code to join the league
Code to join this league: 383718-99007
Classic league, at the end of the season, person with the most number of points wins!
Ill try to keep you all updated on CQN, was rubbish at it last year but will improve his year :)
Got around 70 already so far so should be an exciting season
HH
hen1rik
I dont think the scare tactics by Walter ,McColl, ally, K Jackson and their msm lamb brigade will work on Chuckles and these spivs, this lot dont scare easily (IMHO).
Burnley
Thanks fir your considered reply
canamalar1
21:41 on 12 August, 2013
Sorry, but that is a load of old shoite …….. What does Celtic need to do to get you to take that chip off your shoulder …….I’m more convinced than ever now that you have a personal agenda ….. Disgraceful comment, when you consider how we are being led through this recession, and through all the corruption in Scottish Football ….. Gie yersel a slap in the heed
leftclicktic
22:10 on 12 August, 2013
Absolutely …..too little, too late….LOL
Ah yes someone did tell me they say PL leave the stadium in a stripy shirt and madk. with an exceptionally large tesco carrier bag full of used twenty pound notes last week …….OMG. It must have been the big VW swag bag.
channelislandcelt-boom !!!!
Ps
I think Dave King is the only show in town for the zombies now ,
How to make a small fortune
Start with a big fortune and invest in a football club :))
Good night all
thank you for being here
canamalar1
22:01 on
12 August, 2013
Dan,
That’s exactly what I meant by not being 100% truthful, I expect he could have easily put a decent simplified summary of the finances together which would have shown us in rude health but chose to scaremonger by bringing in Murray and implying spending on players would lead to financial meltdown. It’s becoming lazy journalism.
——————————————————–
canamalar1
My take on the article is that it was a genuine try to give us a snapshot of the finances. Perhaps Paul might consider a simplified version, (would help me understand better) but perhaps all info might not be available for that, not sure, maybe that’s why it was not more detailed. Don’t know mate.
Cheers
Dan
burnley78
22:01 on 12 August, 2013
Exactly ……. Some fholk don’t want to be ‘happy’…. HH
67heaven…,
We could be £20M richer had the board led us properly through that corruption, their silence leave the door wide open for justified accusation, the same people who shamed us by not defending our support on trumped up charges in Europe, the same people who colluded with the police against our support, the same people who risked the lives of our support by allowing unchallenged overcrowding of section 111 then blamed the season ticket holders for overcrowding their own section, away and bile yer heed.
PF
We can agree to differ. I think there is still a much greater enemy.
I am also maybe more tolerant of our leaderships imperfections than some which could also be a fault.
I do think we do not consider the strategic direction enough at that level. But I am not close enough to fully appreciate if that is so.
Aussie rules ! ya bass
Morrissey the 23rd
21:59 on
12 August, 2013
canamalar1 @ 21:48
Orlit. Only £400, 000
………………………………………….but with Spivico rates ….its a ballpark figure …
youwanttaeWongaweemancfc……braw!
I have a feeling that our business in the transfer market is done for the season, so i’ am out of this rubbish transfer rumours/ talk, if am wrong I hope its because we have unearthed a quality player rather than a billy sharp type. we shall see soon enough. NFL should refrain from talking out potential signings, its just a big let down
gebhoy @ 22:01
Cheers for that!
First time I’ve listened to Tommy since April fools day.
I’m reminded of this:
http://www.freenewspos.com/news/article/c/187819/today/peter-lawwell-says-celtic-are-on-the-ball-over-new-bhoys
That’s the plan Celtic are sticking to.
67Heaven
I asked you earlier, you must have missed it.
Will you still be a happy clapper if we fail to qualify ?
Will you still reckon that the suits are doing the right thing if we don’t qualify ?
That is enough for starters >}
HH