I read one highly unlikely article yesterday suggesting we were going to sign Alfred Finnbogason AND were still bidding big money for Kevin Doyle ahead of an 11pm tonight signing deadline. It’s hard to be so wrong in so few words, but this one hit the mark.
Alfred is a target but, and this is the key point the newspapers have not picked up on, he is one of four strikers Celtic are seriously considering at the moment. He looks the part, as do the others, I am assured, but the deal has to be right for Celtic to move.
Our strategic plan is to buy players at a comparatively low price, develop them on the Champions League stage, and sell high, in order to be able to build a team capable of competing further in the Champions League.
To do this we need to buy from the right markets, at the correct age and on the right wage. There will be exceptions to this rule. A few weeks shy of his 27th birthday, Dirk Boerrigter is unlikely to appreciate greatly, but teams need experience to tackle the Champions League, as well as some specific skills, so Dirk is here for what he can give today, not to be the next £12m exit.
We will see more business like Wanyama and Hooper. Before Celtic agree a deal for Finnbogason there would need to be a gap between the buy price and the projected valuation IF the player is a success. If this gap doesn’t exist we will do business elsewhere. Sticking to strategy is more important than pursuing a target like some latter-day David “this time we’re really going for it” Murray.
You can also forget about the 11pm deadline tonight. That is only relevant if we need two or more new players to overcome Shakhter Karagandy. If we want to add Finnbogason, or any ONE other player, the deadline for a Wildcard signing is a day before the game, or pretty much when the team leaves Glasgow Airport, so there is no effective deadline tonight. As such, I would be surprised if a deal was concluded today.
Right now, at Lennoxtown and Celtic Park, people are deciding how to invest our money. We have the kind of choices consistent with a well-run club, but while we are a well-run club, we can’t get caught up in the hubris.
We are living through some big changes in our financial model. Revenue from domestic football (season ticket sales-now discounted, Rangers game £42-per-head ticket sales, hospitality sales, commercial income) has fallen, or disappeared completely (I reckon we’re in the region of £9m p.a. down in these areas, we’ll have a better indication when accounts are released later this month). On top of this, the club was running at a loss without Champions League football or significant player sale (£7m for season 2011-12, the last we have accounts for), and as well as some income streams falling, costs have risen.
I heard that one ‘St Mirren’ supporting journo on Radio Scotland on Saturday said with last season’s Champions League income and money from player sales, Celtic have a £40m transfer kitty.
In the name of all that is sacred, nine years after ‘What the Celtic fans want to know is where is all the Seville money?’, the same nonsense is being peddled. As far as some are concerned, we are back where we started on CQN. The first thing you do with your money is pay your bills, including tax… there is no creditor left behind at Celtic. After they are taken care off you can look to invest in footballers.
This year, the underlying loss has been flipped because of player sales and that Champions League income, although not by nearly as much as journos who regard researching accounts before commenting on finance as an unnecessary indulgence, will tell you. Without Champions League income (this season potentially £14m plus any prize money earned), the money from Wanyama alone would not make this a profitable season, even before the spend on our new signings.
The road ahead is clear. Get into the Champions League as often as possible without allowing any individual failure to cause a collapse, sign players who will flourish at that level, sell them for a profit, repeat and reinforce all aspects of strategy with an improved budget.
Over any business period, every penny which comes into the club, has been, and will continue to be, spent. Our money will be invested in footballers who will appreciate in value, and who will give Celtic their best chance of pushing further in the Champions League on a persistent basis. It will not rest in a bank account earning a pittance in interest. The strategy is ambitious and sustainable but not reckless.
A year ago some wondered if Celtic could survive, never mind flourish, without a Rangers-branded club in the league. If successful, this strategy will not only allow the club to flourish, it may even result in higher long-term income than Celtic achieved while locked in an arms race with a former rival, with a corresponding improvement in Champions League achievement.
Is Alfred Finnbogason the man, is he better than the others we’re looking at, good enough to excel in the Champions League? I’ve no idea, but he is just one detail in the wider Celtic strategy.
Stick to plan, Celtic.
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hen1rik/Morrisey/leftclicktic,
Aye I’m thinking your consensus is right
Lenny asked for a player in today.
If he doesn’t get him, he has been let down big time.
£3.4m?
Charlotte’s hashtag is about safety certificate so perhaps ra builders are oot o’ pocket?
canamalar1
22:18 on 12 August, 2013
You’re right……the Celtic Board are out to destroy us … Please give me a few days warning before you decide to say something good about our Board …… I’ll have to stock up on sedatives…. HH
Celts its a decent blog, it doesn’t have to be personal, unless ye dinnae agree of course!
Offski CSC
Even if we sign 2x £3m players – the chances of us replicating last year’s CL exploits is slim at best.
We already have the team to win the SPL.
not easy for the Board – IMO.
Cowie …@ 21.13
You are having a laugh.
TR was not bought early to replace VW.
He was bought late to replace Ki.
How often have we lacked someone in the middle of park who can make a forward pass and then push forward to support the attack. Sadly lacking last season.
On the subject of replacing VW, I would go for a cheap Championship hammer thrower to fight fire with fire if some away SPL matches involve a pumped up opposition in full kitchen sink / ninja tackling mode.
That way JI will get a chance to grow into the team.
I think he is the true replacement for VW.
Burnley 78
Just dropped in in time to read your post.
Fine words and decent sentiment.
HH
A point which I have not seen raised on here before is the different dates of each country’s transfer window. Is it only the buying club’s window which matters?
Someone suggested, yesterday I think, that we should maybe consider buying in the January window for the following season, given that we will be playing qualifiers in July for the foreseeable future: or perhaps get the targets on pre-contracts a la Scott Brown.
We have two massive disadvantages compared to the “big” leagues; the early qualifiers and the tiny TV revenue. It makes our achievements last year all the more praiseworthy.
The fact that we are in the Champions section of the draw is helpful. Folk should remember that we were the 3rd ranked team in this section this year. Maybe its not such a gamble to wait until we’re in the CL proper until we buy after all.
Iain Anderson playing some superb Rafferty stuff!!!
TET,
how do you know that Neil has been let down,transfer negotiations can go wrong for numerous reasons,it doesn’t necessarily figure that the board has let him down
Morrissey the 23rd
http://www.theguardian.com/music/gallery/2013/aug/12/smiths-artwork-posters-exhibition-pictures?CMP=twt_gu#/?picture=414542922&index=6
Enjoy
Canalmar – I’m not happy with your earlier slur about P67. It was his ability to read a balance sheet that brought this site to prominence and spawned the RTC site. He has since then developed the site into a forum that is graced by Tims from Sydney to Cork to Toronto.
Please take it back.
the exiled tim
22:23 on 12 August, 2013
As Has been the case for 56 happy years, I will continue to love being a Celtic Supporter …. I am ALWAYS bitterly disappointed when we lose any game, but I don’t make a career out of criticising our current Board……last week, for example, the Board were heavily criticised for bringing in a poor quality player like Baldie….by fholk who hadn’t evenwatched him, or given him a chance …….I’m afraid I simply get pissed offvwith negativity for the sake of negativity …. When we should all be revelling in our Club’s recent success, one or two are taking every opportunity to promote their detestation of the Board who, via their strategy, brought in Wanyama, Hooper etc…… and seem to have brought in a few ‘crackers’ already this season also ….
madmitch
22:29 on 12 August, 2013
Not commenting on Ki as a player, but was never a regular, so exceptional business in selling.
Agree on JL, but again we have quite a few who can play in midfield, if only Kayal could find his first season form ?
Hail Hail
How many who are saying we should beat Karagandy have actually seen them ?
Until we drew them, I had never even heard of them, watched the highlights of them beating Bate, they are no mugs.
We on the other hand are struggling just now, fortunate to get past Elfs, struggled to score against Ross Cty, down to the bare bones after losing a few first team picks, players running on empty, players injured, midfield that has little cohesion, a defence that are all over the place at times.
Aye, we may well get past them, but it be more by luck that design.
ROW Z – Let Celtic Flourish By The Cleansing Of The ‘Den!
22:27 on
12 August, 2013
£3.4m?
Charlotte’s hashtag is about safety certificate so perhaps ra builders are oot o’ pocket?
…………………….or this ………..
Charlottes Faither @PJBHoops 1m
Surely not David Murray looking for £3.4 mill for the sale of car park and Edminston House and wanting the money pronto! That would be funny…..
that widbeBraw!
the exiled tim
22:40 on 12 August, 2013
Doooooo …. but it’s exciting, isn’t it ….LOL
Cowiebhoy
I worked with an english guy about 7 years ago in bellshill… wolves fan
We had lee naylor.. second season.
I mentioned I wished he would re capture his first season form again.
He said he was gash at wolves. … I watched naylor for another two seasons. .. my mates opinion was correct. .. naylors first season was the blip
I fear it is the same with biram… but I live in hope my fears are unfounded
gordybhoy64
Come on, they have had plenty of time to get replacements in.
I’ll tell you what I know, we are taking a massive gamble going into our biggest couple of games of the season a complete shambles.
We are all over the place at the moment, and I think many on here and other blogs are well underestimating the Kazaks, worst of all the suits are underestimating them.
Would we have underestimated Warsaw or Vienna the same, I doubt it.
I also know that you or I haven’t failed in getting Lenny what he wanted, that is the remit of the SSM, as I said earlier, I admire his balls for the gamble, which will be on toast if it fails.
HH
Dan,
From what we think we know, and I’ll be conservative,
Season ticket money £9M
SPL champs £1M
Telly £1M
CL £20M
Player sales £18M
Was it 9 or 10 players out ?
So far is it 5 in ? Lets say £6M
And I’ve no even looked at sponsorship or merchandise
Running costs £35M
Dividends, overdrafts, bonuses and loan repayments £5M
So £49M in and £46M out, and I’m being very conservative, we’ve got £3M to spend on a big bag of sweeties or pay off fines rather than pay lawyers to defend us against trumped up charges eh.
That’s straight profit so we’ll give it to the tax man to help out those poor banksters.
67Heaven
Aye, I suppose it is >}
HH
I think we witnessed Victors replacement on Saturday- Jackson Irvine. With cover at the back, is it too much to ask for a Hoops replacement for a similar price he was sold for?
Tet
“We are all over the place at the moment,”
The performance last midweek was poor and the squad is far from sensational but to say we are all over the shop is something I’d expect to hear on Clyde.
canamalar1
21:53 on 12 August, 2013
That one made me laugh :)
gsu
Karagandy play their game away this week but at the ground they will play us on next week.
“Shakhtar had no match at the weekend but are away to second placed Astana, who are six points ahead of them in second place in the championship, on Friday at the same venue where they’ll face Celtic”.
Why can’t Scotland be so accommodating?
TET,
aye we have had,and we have brought in a couple of players,
it was in reference to Neil saying over the weekend that he hoped to get someone in by today,lets remember that our last signing came out of the blue,i am only hoping that there is some work going on behind the scenes to bring another striker in to play in the next CL game
TBJ
Fair point
Hail Hail
Did Dave King not receive £25 m back from the huns very shortly after investing £20m.
More of a short term loan than an investment.
Or have I got this wrong
Canalamar
Surely season ticket sales will be closer to £18m?
40k @ £450?
Oh and Breaking Bad is back on a high
Jackson Irvine is a player.
As the clock tics past 11pm…. have you ever known so many blooming transfer deadlines in one summer
The sevco just dont seem to have these issues… should we make a move for carlo verdi and stockbridge :),
stephbhoy
22:21 on 12 August, 2013
Stay tuned my friend for Nike Friday
gsu
Jude
He looked very good. A real bonus perhaps.
Twists
“Surely season ticket sales will be closer to £18m”
If every season book holder was an adult in the best section then possibly.
Geordie Munro
Do you reckon we are playing as a tight unit, or even a half decent unit ?
In all my time on here, it will be hard to find a post from me criting the players or the coaching staff.
Sometimes the truth is hard to take, imo we are a shambles at the moment.
Many contributing factors, but only saying it like I see it.
Or should I no say a word and think everything will be wonderfull, and get a shock if we get papped out of the CL.
Jude
The Glasgow lassies love an ozzie accent :),