State of the Club Report, transfer, financial strategy

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I read one highly unlikely article yesterday suggesting we were going to sign Alfred Finnbogason AND were still bidding big money for Kevin Doyle ahead of an 11pm tonight signing deadline.  It’s hard to be so wrong in so few words, but this one hit the mark.

Alfred is a target but, and this is the key point the newspapers have not picked up on, he is one of four strikers Celtic are seriously considering at the moment.  He looks the part, as do the others, I am assured, but the deal has to be right for Celtic to move.

Our strategic plan is to buy players at a comparatively low price, develop them on the Champions League stage, and sell high, in order to be able to build a team capable of competing further in the Champions League.

To do this we need to buy from the right markets, at the correct age and on the right wage.  There will be exceptions to this rule.  A few weeks shy of his 27th birthday, Dirk Boerrigter is unlikely to appreciate greatly, but teams need experience to tackle the Champions League, as well as some specific skills, so Dirk is here for what he can give today, not to be the next £12m exit.

We will see more business like Wanyama and Hooper.  Before Celtic agree a deal for Finnbogason there would need to be a gap between the buy price and the projected valuation IF the player is a success.  If this gap doesn’t exist we will do business elsewhere.  Sticking to strategy is more important than pursuing a target like some latter-day David “this time we’re really going for it” Murray.

You can also forget about the 11pm deadline tonight.  That is only relevant if we need two or more new players to overcome Shakhter Karagandy.  If we want to add Finnbogason, or any ONE other player, the deadline for a Wildcard signing is a day before the game, or pretty much when the team leaves Glasgow Airport, so there is no effective deadline tonight. As such, I would be surprised if a deal was concluded today.

Right now, at Lennoxtown and Celtic Park, people are deciding how to invest our money.  We have the kind of choices consistent with a well-run club, but while we are a well-run club, we can’t get caught up in the hubris.

We are living through some big changes in our financial model.  Revenue from domestic football (season ticket sales-now discounted, Rangers game £42-per-head ticket sales, hospitality sales, commercial income) has fallen, or disappeared completely (I reckon we’re in the region of £9m p.a. down in these areas, we’ll have a better indication when accounts are released later this month).  On top of this, the club was running at a loss without Champions League football or significant player sale (£7m for season 2011-12, the last we have accounts for), and as well as some income streams falling, costs have risen.

I heard that one ‘St Mirren’ supporting journo on Radio Scotland on Saturday said with last season’s Champions League income and money from player sales, Celtic have a £40m transfer kitty.

In the name of all that is sacred, nine years after ‘What the Celtic fans want to know is where is all the Seville money?’, the same nonsense is being peddled. As far as some are concerned, we are back where we started on CQN. The first thing you do with your money is pay your bills, including tax… there is no creditor left behind at Celtic. After they are taken care off you can look to invest in footballers.

This year, the underlying loss has been flipped because of player sales and that Champions League income, although not by nearly as much as journos who regard researching accounts before commenting on finance as an unnecessary indulgence, will tell you.  Without Champions League income (this season potentially £14m plus any prize money earned), the money from Wanyama alone would not make this a profitable season, even before the spend on our new signings.

The road ahead is clear.  Get into the Champions League as often as possible without allowing any individual failure to cause a collapse, sign players who will flourish at that level, sell them for a profit, repeat and reinforce all aspects of strategy with an improved budget.

Over any business period, every penny which comes into the club, has been, and will continue to be, spent.  Our money will be invested in footballers who will appreciate in value, and who will give Celtic their best chance of pushing further in the Champions League on a persistent basis.  It will not rest in a bank account earning a pittance in interest. The strategy is ambitious and sustainable but not reckless.

A year ago some wondered if Celtic could survive, never mind flourish, without a Rangers-branded club in the league.  If successful, this strategy will not only allow the club to flourish, it may even result in higher long-term income than Celtic achieved while locked in an arms race with a former rival, with a corresponding improvement in Champions League achievement.

Is Alfred Finnbogason the man, is he better than the others we’re looking at, good enough to excel in the Champions League?  I’ve no idea, but he is just one detail in the wider Celtic strategy.

Stick to plan, Celtic.
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1,126 Comments

  1. Paolo,

     

     

    It’ll be like this for weeks to come. The shafters will shaft and the clappers will clap. ;)

  2. Turkeybhoy, i think that sums up some of my feelings, however it could come back to bites us. Surely a playmaker and a good striker will attract more fans to attend matches even on an adhoc basis, can’t believe we are shutting a stand. Last year prices were a joke £29 per match all season apart from the last 2 games, someone got that badly wrong.

  3. HT, was trying to get fit before Ireland but haven’t done much since so im in the same boat.

     

     

    Geordie Munro – well put!

  4. Morrissey the 23rd on

    @colinjordan3

     

    @Morrissey23rd @Propa_Gander @BartinMain Its Imran Ahmad in the Daily Record 2morro

  5. canamalar1

     

    21:53 on

     

    12 August, 2013

     

    gsu,

     

    You could be right, some of the arguments I’m seeing are straight out of gullible huns r us

     

     

    THE EXILED TIM

     

    21:53 on

     

    12 August, 2013

     

    Burnley78

     

     

    With respect, I haven’t seen a single post asking for the club to spend what they don’t have.

     

     

    HH

     

     

     

     

    The two best posts of the day.Panic merchants,would be accountants,please dont read.You wont sleep tonight,worrying about the balance sheet.Good lord,what have some become?.

  6. RalphWaldoEllison remembers ALS victims Jimmy Jonstone & John Cushley on

    Phyllis Dietrichson

     

    @ 23:50

     

     

    Very powerful tale and thanks for sharing.

     

     

    Before it went, stood in the Kop with my wife & sons as we were all big KD fans. Against Spurs, Liverpool won handsomely.

     

     

    Some clubs have an ‘X’ factor,

     

     

    while others are just ‘X’ rated.

     

     

    HH

  7. Burnley 78 wroteWe have a tough job to recruit to a 4th rate league with limited global exposure. Short of a possible 6 CL games a season. Why would any real talent cone to us. The gap has widened.

     

     

    I will tell you why.We can still offer wages better than the majority of the Spanish,most former Eastern block countries,Belgian,Dutch,leagues,and assure players they will win something,and play regularly in the CL.Not too bad for starters.When a highly rated Dutch CH signs for us,an Italian wonder kid CH wants to sign for us,Ledley,Mathews,Sammi,Commons,who could all play in the EPL want to play for us,that should answer your question.

  8. Geordie Munro @

     

    00:01 on 13 August, 2013

     

     

     

    It’ll be like this for weeks to come. The shafters will shaft and the clappers will clap. ;)

     

     

    Ohmni says,

     

     

    Maybe the Clappers will get shafted…

  9. Should we feel sorry for any true sevconians for what they’re going through??????

     

     

    Nah I didn’t think so either, bloody hilarious!!!

  10. the hat

     

    23:51 on 12 August, 2013

     

     

    It’s been a while….

     

     

    Can find nothing to disagree with in your post. Simple logic backs up your assertions.

     

     

    It ‘appears’ that Paul67 is lowering expectations with regards to Finnabogson and other potential targets. Personally, and I may be completely wrong, I think Paul67, is ‘helping’ the club as negotiations are reaching the hardball stage. CQN is known to have a closer relationship with PL than most bloggers. It would be naive to think that CQN is a private forum not looked at by agents and other clubs during the transfer window particularly. Or maybe I am naive in thinking this to be the case…

     

     

    So here is my prediction…. If the Finnabogson deal is completed satisfactorily… It will be announced exclusively by CQN, an hour or two before others announce it.

     

     

    Roll on the Windae Gently sealing itself shut…

  11. paolosboots

     

    23:40 on

     

    12 August, 2013

     

    Exiled Tim, can actually say i’ve seen Karagandy when they played St Pats 2 years ago. I was not impressed and think if we approach it in the right way we should have no problems.

     

     

     

     

    Palo,and you think they are the same team?.I bet Karagandy have watched videos of us the past few weeks and are saying”They are crap,we can gub this mob”.

     

     

    Anyway,Good night all,great debate.Not ended I think.

  12. Delaneys Dunky on

    Is there a boycott of the new sevco tap? Last year, this time saw loads about the city. Still to see my first, this year. Thankfully :-))

  13. The Hat

     

    23:51 on

     

    12 August, 2013

     

    Burnley78,

     

     

    With respect (and having regard to your comment to PFayr at 22:19), I’d argue your attitude of deference is the greatest enemy.

     

     

    It is healthy for a support to challenge the strategy and planning at our Club when we are in the position of domestic strength we enjoy currently. It would be easy to simply consider domestic achievement as the pinnacle.

     

     

    To quote from Paul67, “Our strategic plan is to buy players at a comparatively low price, develop them on the Champions League stage, and sell high, in order to be able to build a team capable of competing further in the Champions League”.

     

     

    If that is the strategic plan, with CL key to our goals, lets look at the current implementation of our plan.

     

     

    We chose to weaken our squad by cashing in and selling Gary Hooper and Victor Wanyama (both players under contract), prior to sourcing replacements, ahead of the tie against Elfsborg. With our dream still alive (despite our Jenga type attitude to risk) and the riches of CL monies one step closer, we’ve now chosen to again play Jenga and further weaken the squad that played against Elfsborg by selling Kelvin Wilson (another player under contract).

     

    ======================

     

    Alternatively we chose not to play players who had made it clear they wished to play elsewhere and would prefer not to be selected because they could not guarantee 100% application.

     

     

    Footballers do the choosing at their time of choosing, not clubs and clubs have then to make the best of it.

     

     

    If it was up to Celtic they would have chosen not to have to play a team with more competitive games under their belt than us on a playing surface that made football difficult but there was no choice.

     

     

    Life is like that, it throws curve balls and not all can be dodged. Would it be better that we held on to Hooper and Wanyama until we qualified then let them go and started building a new team then or facing the future without them?

     

     

    Its the idea that Celtic had the choice to use two players that would apply themselves as last season that is wrong. That choice did not exist. If those guys had wanted to play they would have been screaming that info to Celtic. Anybody hear them?

     

     

    Would I prefer it that the world was perfect and all the ducks flew by in a row to be shot in an order I choose? Who wouldnt? But when it does not happen I dont blame the ducks. I dont ask them why they did not fly past to my tune. I just accept that not everything goes my way or some bassa shot them before I got the chance.

  14. As a wee afterthought….

     

     

    The fact is… If Sevco survives again, in any shape or form, they will exist only under severe conditions of austerity that will result in anger, frustration and exasperation. It is Ironic that they find themselves in this position due to ‘friendly bankers’ and an ‘Ego’ called The Mint. In a sense they are a microcosm of what is unfolding around the Western world, where bankers are bailed out, and The People are left with the consequences of their Leaders Hubris…

     

     

    Aye…. Ironic, but such shenanigans are unfolding all over the western world right now… So while taking much pleasure in their demise, think before we laugh at them and media compliance too much…

     

     

    ain’t that the truth

  15. My memory of the Hillsborough benefit game.

     

     

    We were in the “Rangers” end with thousands of Liverpool fans.

     

     

    A hugely emotional experience.

     

     

    There was one girl there in full Rangers kit.,

     

     

    A few murmers from some scary bhoys about her, but not so she’d hear.

     

     

    And we did our thing, our incredible thing.

     

     

    But the thing I remember, was she was part of the tribute.

     

     

    And we did Glasgow proud.

  16. Take away Celtics champions League income.

     

     

    Add in crazy eyed managers like Ferguson and McLean.

     

     

    We have a good league again.

     

     

    Failure is fun sometimes.

  17. ohmni

     

     

    You just supplied a slogan that might work in this PR/media driven world….

     

     

    Seriously, cheers, I am astounded of forehead at the lack of awareness, the lack of accountability or perhaps it is the excess of distraction.

     

     

    Anyway thanks for the reply Sir…

     

     

    HH

     

    KTF

  18. Rascar Capac

     

    01:15 on

     

    13 August, 2013

     

    ……………………………….oooooooooooooooooooo what a big twat ….jistcositslatecreepthecelticworldisalotbiggerthanyouyekenscum!

  19. neustadt-braw

     

     

    02:53 on 13 August, 2013

     

    Rascar Capac

     

    01:15

     

    ______________________________

     

     

    You are probably pished…. Or immature and angry in a Hunnish Way..,, Still no excuse for being ridiculously Infantile…..

     

     

    Step Away from the mirror you twat.

     

    You are showing yourself up….

     

     

    FromOneWhoKnows CSC

  20. PJBhoynyc

     

    03:11 on

     

    13 August, 2013

     

    neustadt-braw

     

     

    02:53 on 13 August, 2013

     

    Rascar Capac

     

    01:15

     

    ______________________________

     

     

    You are probably pished…. Or immature and angry in a Hunnish Way..,, Still no excuse for being ridiculously Infantile…..

     

     

    Step Away from the mirror you twat.

     

    You are showing yourself up….

     

     

    FromOneWhoKnows CSC

     

     

    if you can excuse that post …………then you have nothing ….empty empty empty …I would say your that type …a nothing …..zero…take your dirty talk to your hovel..

  21. achyerawasteogoodairyouandyermultiballedpalobreinyeradisgracetothefamilyashamedyoushouldbe………….bawkingcfc.

  22. Neil Lennon & McCartney on

    The Hat

     

    23:51 on

     

    12 August, 2013

     

     

    Great post – sums it up for me.

     

     

    BTW what’s “Jenga”?

     

     

    HH

  23. Anyways…..

     

    Before I go to bed, or post some strange music… A wee story that the MSM never talk about… (Note; not just the SMSM, but the MSM).

     

    Democracy and Equality.

     

     

    There was once two major share holders of two Glasgow Fitba clubs…

     

     

    One had very close friends in a Scottish Bank and in the Scottish media…. Lets call him the Laird of Govan…And all was good for years. Till he and his buddies in the bank got burnt. Then nobody knew what to do or what to say about such an unfortunate turn of events…

     

    But The People were Unhappy.

     

     

    The other one was involved in Irish banking….lets call him the Laird of Kandahar… And he never got burnt. And nobody knew what to do or what to say about that fortunate turn of events either…

     

    But the people were unhappy.

     

     

    Two sides of the same coinage…? Some might say that….

     

    But I couldn’t possibly comment….

     

     

    And you know what….?

     

    When it came to the media and the people….? There was a common denominator….

     

     

    & It was the Same All Over The World..

  24. A financial blog which has generated continuing comments into the nightshift.

     

    I had a wee walk outside as the moon set looking for the meteor shower in the sky.

     

    The only thing I saw were blinking lights from jets headed to Newark.

     

    We expect everything to act either as advertised or as we would wish.

     

    However we don’t always get what we want.

     

    As Jeremy Wade can easily testify, you can’t always land the fish you have on the line, despite all the bait you lay out, the chum you put in the water, and the effort you exert to land your target.

     

    If the bait of playing for the SPHell champions isn’t a good enough lure, if the fat chum of Champions League football doesn’t attract a player, then it’s time to move to another fishing hole and land a striker who will increase our bulging fish stock.

     

    And I am sure PL and NL are ready to do that.

  25. Neil Lennon & McCartney on

    In the event that we do not sign another striker, will we see Tony Watt being played as a Centre Forward?

     

     

    If not Tony, who else?

     

     

    ExpectationmanagementCSC