Back in 2011 a campaign was launched by Craig Whyte (subsequently adopted by others) to convince Scottish Premier League clubs that Rangers were necessary for their survival, and in the event of a liquidation event, the league should invite a phoenix club into the top flight.
The people at Celtic became aware of this and after the initial revulsion that a team, who at that stage were three-in-a-row champions, could liquidate, then phoenix with the same players and income streams, but without the debts associated with building the playing squad, they ran the numbers. They asked themselves the question, could we survive without Rangers?
The answer was straightforward, if we can’t survive without Rangers we’re as well not surviving at all. We needed a strategy which would cope with the drop in income, the lack of domestic competition, but still deliver Champions League competition. Easy, right?
Not easy but by no means impossible.
Celtic were running at an operational loss without selling players or getting into the Champions League group stage. That season (2011-12), in reaching the Europa League group stage, we made a £7m loss (mitigated by a later player sale). The subsequent drop in season ticket sales in a league without Rangers (it happened), drop in associated commercial and match-day ticket sales cost around £5m. Dropping the price of season tickets by £100 this season arrested the decline in sales, but brought in £4m less than last season.
To balance this, we qualified for the Champions League group stage last season and this, sold £20m worth of talent this summer (and have spent £6m so far on new arrivals).
We have something practically unique in football, a sustainable strategy which is also successful.
Is it without its risks? No.
Will it tax the team and manager, even against teams like Elfsborg and Shakhter? Yes.
Is it as good a strategy as we could have? That is a matter of opinion but results on the park are the only place that matters.
We’ve made lots of decisions so far this summer. Selling Hooper, Wanyama and Wilson, while bringing in van Dijk, Derk Boerrigter, Balde and Mouyokolo, before getting to this stage. Would Norwich and Southampton have waited or signed alternatives, leaving us with rapidly depreciating assets?
I’ve no idea, but these are the kind of factors which contribute to each decision.
You can play your hand cautiously, hold the players, risking buyers leave the market, or sign more players early, on the basis that they are available and you are prepared to pay the asking price, irrespective of your valuation. You can certainly give yourself an easier ride by taking decisions against strategy based on pressure.
This would not guarantee success (nothing does) but it would further mitigate the risk of failure, however, it would potentially leave fewer resources to build a team which can reach further still.
We played a more ambitious hand. Strategy was adhered to, which looked a folly, to some, a week ago.
For the first time in 40 years we have a sustainable, successful, team development strategy, which is only just beginning to bear fruit. It is too tempting to take those fruits and blow them on the same strategy most of our UK-based peers do in an attempt to guarantee entry to the promised land.
Faith in the squad, manager and scouts was rewarded. Whether you like it or not, we have one of the best development strategies in football. Well done, Celtic.
Neil Lennon is an ambitious man but if he thinks he can stem the “disgusting” “hysterical” reaction to a Celtic defeat he is overreaching. Some will learn but others will have rationalised their reaction within a second of the manager’s comments being made. ‘Tis the nature of the beast.
Well done to everyone who attended last night. The place wasn’t full but there is something about a Celtic Park crowd of around that size which seems more effective than when we’re crammed in.
Enjoy being a Celtic supporter.
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Sneddoni
there is no route that allows us to play one qualifier and if we lose drop into the EL unless Scotland are ranked 13th or higher and finish 2nd in the league which frankly is very unlikely on both counts in the next few years.
Best case for us going down the Champions Qualification path is 2 qualifiers.
Making the final qualifier guarantees EL or Champions League Group stage
This year we played 3 qualifiers
Stage 1 – had we lost to Cliftonville we were out of Europe
Stage 2 – had we lost to Elfsborg we would have played in final Europa League qualifying round as a seeded team
Stage 3 – had we lost to Karagandy we would have entered the Europa League Group Stage.
Qualification for either group stage gives a team 4 points and any points accrued through qualification are removed. Failure to qualify for either group stage will accrue any points gained e.g. St Johnstone have 1.555 points, Hibs and Motherwell 0 points
Group stage games give 2 points per win and 1 point per draw, teams qualifying for last 16 get a bonus of 5 points but are given 0 points for last 16 ties
Last season Celtic gained
4 bonus points for qualifying for Group Stage
7 points from games (3 wins and 1 draw)
5 points for last 16
total 16 and you then add country share which was an average of 4.300 divided by 5 as we had 5 teams in Europe = 0.86 and Celtic gained 16.086 for the season.
Benfica dropped into Europa League and made the final and ended up with 26 points and got 2.25 from the Portuguese average (Portugal had 6 teams)
For the next few seasons we are likely to play a minimum of 3 qualifiers for the Champions league
Crucially we will always likely to be seeded and should have a very good chance of consistently making the group stages.
Getting to the last 16 is glamorous and gets you more cash, finishing 3rd and getting into the EL last 32 is not a bad shout, you get 3 bonus points and if you get through the last 32 game you have last 16, quarters, semis and final to gain more points
Benfica made 10 more points than us last season and got to a final, I loved getting to the last 16 but honestly would have loved a crack at the Europa league last 32 – especially with the team we had!
This year any finish other than 4th is a must but based on our seeding we are expected to finish 4th (same as last year but we managed 2nd). I would be happy to take 3rd and embark on a run to the Europa League final.
Bring on the draw!!
Awe Naw
“Sorry SFTB but its undeniable.”
Ach, that’s never put me off in the past.
You say that MON< WGS and now NFL were not backed and, therefore we did not kick on. I say they were backed fine, within our capabilities, and they achieved fine too. We'll never know definitively as the alternative universe where they were backed financially to your satisfaction, has not and, I dare say. will not happen, not without a change of league and market. So we can both claim to be right but no-one can know that they are right.
I fail to see how one, or even two, big signing(s) gets us into or close to that next tier of clubs advantaged by being in a big market. There are a dozen clubs in England and Spain plus 8 or so in Germany and Italy, and 4 or more in France who can outspend on their back up 11 what we spend on first team buys.
There are many clubs from Russia and Ukraine with large financial muscle who can outbid us and clubs from Portugal and The Netherlands can offer playing and other advantages that we do not have.
I am not compelled by the argument that we can spend our way into the top 20 clubs in Europe. We do not have enough money to put a dent in that market gap.
setting free the bears 15:37
Can’t agree with you about tactics not being important. Tactics are what allows a lower quality team get results against better players. Obviously players playing well and doing their jobs is important.
Playing Samaras as a lone striker is a poor tactical decision. It’s a waste of a very talented player. How you deal with a long ball/target man is tactical as much as it is down to ability. We dealt with this a lot better last night by having someone get in in-front. The space between the defence and midfield in the first leg… I could go on…
On Forrest I did say he contributed to some good stuff and the frustration is with the 80% of his play as 20% is very good… I guess that 20% can be the more important.
corkcelt
15:49 on 29 August, 2013
Saint Stivs, Pot 3 is bloody dangerous, Man City or Borussia Dortmund would surely spell curtains to our survival hopes. I know once the games start, I will be looking to qualify for last 16 but if anyone offered me 3rd place and Europa qualification in any Group right now, I’d take the hand and all off them.
………………………………………………………………..
Not like you mate!
Are we beaten before the draw is made?
Shirley nutt!
I see a few wish to avoid English sides and I see where they are coming from, part of me would like to say how the pampered pretty boys of Chelsea and Man City would fare in the cauldron of Parkhead – it would be like nothing they ever face down there. The Germans on the other hand will be more used to the crowd noise as they actually know how to support their teams.
Lets see who we get.
HH
Dream draw
Benfica/Porto
Schalke
Basel.
Would prefer a draw where we’ve a chance of a couple of wins rather than “glamour” games.
And yes, I’d settle for 3rd place and a run in EL also.
I hope the draw God smiles on us today.
HH
I watched a clip on BBC National News this morning where Neil ly was describing the winning goal last night.
He said “our no 10 Stokes” cut the ball back to James who scored.
Didn’t quite sound right.
Neither it did.
Just to confirm oldtim home safe and sound.. o))
On many previous posts I’ve given my preferences for th group…
This morning I asked Big Billy to give me Real, schalke and Ajax…..
…………………………
This evening I stood in a lonely spot in this hot and humid desert and gazed up into the sky……
Jock, sir, says I …. Big mhan pLease sanction my request!!
KTF
HH and god bless the Celtic Family…. Not long now……
Draw time.
Let’s see what Lady Luck has in store for the Bhoys.
KLV
Any help?
What time is the draw, and is it on TV/live stream?
Mountblow Tim
Your namesake bar was also jumping when I went in for my post match pint
I WANT LAST 16 AT LEAST………………..THEN WE WILL SEE WHO WE GET THEN!!!!
AM I MAD OR WAS IT ALL A DREAM LAST NIGHT?????????
SFTB
Didn´t you notice their MON, WGS exits ? ;-)
NFL ???? next ???
well you will never know if you dont DARE try
No one is asking for an unsustainable spend.
We can afford a couple of marquee players right now.
I think the changing of coach every 4 years is NOT THE CELTIC WAY :-)
As always we can agree to disagree in how much European amibtion Celtic should be prepared for.
HH
Malone Bhoy
“Playing Samaras as a lone striker is a poor tactical decision.”
And yet it has worked against Moscow and Rangers (told you I was cursed with a memory) in the recent past. The facts fit more with Giorgios having an atypically poor away game rather than being unsuited to anything other than a left wing berth.
“How you deal with a long ball/target man is tactical as much as it is down to ability. We dealt with this a lot better last night by having someone get in in-front.”
The players who managed it better last night were following the same tactical advice as the players in the first leg. this time they executed it slightly better, Nonetheless, Shakther made nearly as many goal efforts last night as in the first leg. Thankfully, this time they did not go in.
Anyone heard what the rehearsal draw gave this time round.
Last years was exactly the same as the actual one so would be interesting to compare .
HH
/Bishop B
If we draw 3 teams who are roughly equal and draw all of their games (excluding us)we only need 1 win and 5 draws to top the group… Easy
Len B
Barca, Juve and Galatassary.
I think.
Philboy
I think Neil was talking to the world media…therefore clarifying who did the amazing dribble to set up the goal…so don’t read to much into “our No 10, Stokes”.
Antony was also did brilliantly in the lead up to the seond goal. He made a very significant impact. Well done that bhoy!
We’ll be doing the huddle in the champions league!
The GhodlikeGenius of Georgios Samaras CSC.
What pot are the Huns in?
Oh, that’s right.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Awe Naw
I noticed their exits and they left for different reasons. MON had looked to leave earlier than he did but was persuaded to stay on- he could see limits and thought a dormant club like Villa might help him by-pass the restrictions associated with us.
WGS left after his first failure. He left because he would never be fully accepted here. Despite all his faults, we the support, treated him worse than the Board did.
Breaking off now to go watch the draw
Delaneys Dunky
I would also hate to draw out Chelsea. Horrible support and the Hun clingons would be out in their droves trying to recreate the “Old Firm” for themselves.
Of course now that we have mentioned that, we’ll probably get them!
Marti
What a night I ended up having last night. Met some mates from Airdrie (I know, I know) after the game and as we were walking to Bellgrove they suggested going into town for a couple of jars. We ended up in Babbity Bowsers and after a few I had to leave to get my train home as I needed to change trains at Partick. When I got to Partick, I discovered that I had missed my last train home so took a train to Jordanhill and then set out on a 5 mile hike home. I hadn’t enough money left after buying my round and I’d left my bank card at home.
Arrived home about 1:30 am and remembered to my horror that I’d driven down to the train station at the start of the night. How I cursed the bass as from Airdrie for leading me astray. I was then in the horns of a dilemma. My new 2013 Reg car was sitting exposed in a British Rail car park and could be vandalised, stolen or whatever. I couldn’t go and drive it home because I had swallowed 4 pints. What did I do? Watched a recording of the game – build up, half time analysis, post match analysis. Brilliant! At 5 am I decided that I was sober enough and safe enough to go and collect the car and drive it home. When I arrived at the Car Park there were about 10 other cars there as well. Then it dawned on me. Their owners had been at the game too and. Met some drunken bassas (probably from Airdrie) to go and have a pint
with. :-))
Today after walking about 6 miles in the wee small hours, I am suffering from the effects of Man Flu but with a smug wee smile on my face.
Any links to the draw please?
Philbhoy
16:10 on 29 August, 2013
Len B
Barca, Juve and Galatassary.
I think.
—-
Cheers mate!
Would prefer not to get Barca again [getting a bit boring beating them..;)] but would be interesting with the other two.
HH
/Bishop B
Switch on SSN if you have a chance…..all about celtic after the break.
Can I say that some of the spelling and punctuation in my last post can be attributable to predictive text rather than the effects of Man Flu. :-))
Phil
Assume uefa.com will be showing the draw.
sorry thoughts still oozing out
we really really need to look at the primary risk of our strategy – that is that we sell the very players who are required to guarantee success at the exact time we need them to ensure we can attract more quality players
admittedly this year was unusual in that the players we sold were the spine but there’s nothing in our current operational model to say that won’t happen again in 10 months time. that is a risk that/which won’t go away (http://oxforddictionaries.com/words/that-or-which)
Don’t know which one is correct.
DB – it can’t have been easy to come on last night and a couple of times he held the ball up beat the defender. he could be very very useful to us
Focus on Celtic now on SSN
Ghuys
On the Mancs , if Company is missing for City then they are ordinary at the back and after watching the big game down south on Monday, Mourinho will just put the shutters up better with Man U who without VP and Rooney are miles away from Barca and Bayern standard , so we have a chance.
Prefer to avoid the English teams as they can cope with our physical game.
Not long now!
bt
Cheers! Hope the leg get’s better soon!
Draw is live on Eurosport 2 at 16-45.
Virgin 525 and Sky 411
Marti Sandino Supports Wee Oscar
16:14 on 29 August, 2013
‘Delaneys Dunky
I would also hate to draw out Chelsea. Horrible support and the Hun clingons would be out in their droves trying to recreate the “Old Firm” for themselves.’
######
My recollection of the pre season friendly we had with them is that their fans were OK and were unaware of any special relationship they are supposed to have with the huns.
Their middle aged to elderly casual element are effectively excluded from Stamford Bridge and are a thing of the past.
TheOriginalSadiesBhoy
Hehe – had a similiar hike in the early hours after the Barca win last season. Passed a hun pub on route which had some bunting up outside in celebration of the queens jubilee or some crap. Not sure what happened but the wind must have blown it down;)
HH
BT. That is good news, I was thinking of all of ye last night. Has kikinthenakas surfaced yet. Ye are a great bunch of lads.
Bobby Petta on Talkspurt at the mo bigging up the team.
Was at the game last night and said he’s still buzzing!
HH
/Bishop B
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/champions-league-draw-live-updates-2236110