Omission bias research and refs with grudges

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The SFA Head of Refereeing, John Fleming, spoke about the semi-final incident on Sunday, largely to protect his fraternity.  Referee Steven McLean made a huge error but Fleming said “I don’t think there was anyone in the ground who would have thought it was 100% a penalty and sending off until they had seen the replay.”

This flies in the face of the Celtic players who claimed for a penalty on the spot, the raised voices from thousands of Celtic supporters, and the shout from the TV commentator.  Fleming’s assertion is demonstrably untrue.

He is a man in a position of authority at the SFA.  He is allowed to have opinions, or to disagree with any club, but making untrue statements to protect his referees is a wholly inappropriate.  If is the standard referees are held to, no wonder we have problems.  Having asked for clarification on the refereeing error yesterday, I expect Celtic will be even keener on an explanation for Fleming’s incredulous comment.

I’ve linked here to a Stanford University report on Omission Bias in Sports.  The report finds that people are biased to favour inaction (i.e. don’t make a decision) over action (make a decision which will have a profound impact).

It’s an interesting concept which good refereeing guidance will account for.  They found that “For all sports, effect [is]stronger if game is close and weak when score is lopsided”.

Omission bias is what we should be looking for in Scottish football.  Evidence this video of former referee Kenny Clark, who while still officiating SPL games told an audience that he held a grudge against Celtic’s John Hartson and failed to award him a foul which he saw clearly enough to describe in some detail.

Unfortunately, no journalist has ever been able to contact Mr Clark to ask him about his grudges or omission bias.  If this was England, the media would not allow Clark to flaunt omission bias while defending it in others, he would be called to account.

See above, Sunday’s officials greeting each other on the pitch before kick off.  Before the dust settles on this one, some of us better learn a new handshake.  Those wanting real change at the SFA will have to fight for it.

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984 Comments

  1. Scientists have brought forward the date for the next solar eclipse after Leigh Griffiths bought a trampoline.

  2. Alleged Party in Breach: Josh Meekings (Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC)

     

    Match: Inverness Caledonian Thistle v Celtic (Scottish Cup) – Sunday, 19th April 2015

     

     

    Disciplinary Rule(s) allegedly breached:

     

     

    Disciplinary Rule 200: In that at the above match you did deny the opposing team an obvious goal scoring opportunity by deliberately handling the ball

     

     

    Fixed Suspension offer: Yes – one match (within the Scottish Cup)

     

     

     

     

     

    Media will now paint Celtic as the bad guys for the guy missing the final.

     

     

    LB

  3. LiviBhoy

     

     

     

     

    16:42 on

     

     

    21 April, 2015

     

     

     

     

    Alleged Party in Breach: Josh Meekings (Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC)

     

    Match: Inverness Caledonian Thistle v Celtic (Scottish Cup) – Sunday, 19th April 2015

     

     

    Disciplinary Rule(s) allegedly breached:

     

     

    Disciplinary Rule 200: In that at the above match you did deny the opposing team an obvious goal scoring opportunity by deliberately handling the ball

     

     

    Fixed Suspension offer: Yes – one match (within the Scottish Cup)

     

     

    Media will now paint Celtic as the bad guys for the guy missing the final.

     

     

    LB

     

    ————————————————-

     

     

    Aawwww, that’s a wee sin so it is…

     

    Maybe he would have got away with it if he didn’t pose for a twitter pic in gloating reference to it. However, as has been said – this is just a distraction from the real issue…

  4. Tricoloured Ribbon on

    !!bada bing!!

     

     

    14:57 on 21 April, 2015

     

     

    We have masons on our own board,this issue will never be addressed or go away.

     

     

    ……………….

     

    Can you tell us who they are bada?

  5. An Tearmann,

     

     

    Thanks. Hopefully see you in Dublin.

     

     

    I thought the article said a lot.

     

     

    Anyway,

     

     

    Up The Wee County

  6. The Green Man on

    That SFA hun mob are outrageous….they will try every dirty trick in the book.

     

    Its a football war.

     

    Its them or us.

     

    Bring it on.

     

     

     

    HH

  7. So is every handball missed by the referee an automatic offer of a one game ban for the player?

     

     

    Changing the rules to try to deflect from their officials total incompetence.

     

     

    Hope Meekings contests the ban and wins.

  8. Davidopoulos

     

     

    Most players will cheat to gain an advantage. I would not want to see the guy banned. It was so blatant it was undeniable. What else can he do? Lie? The referee never gave it and he probably couldn’t believe his luck.

     

     

    LB

  9. coolmore mafia on

    Lennon n Mc….Mjallby

     

    16:35 on

     

    21 April, 2015

     

    It beggars belief that we’ve had to put up with this coordinated cheating against us for our entire history,the solution being we extricate ourselves from Scottish football.

     

     

    Is it such an impossibility for the club to do this?

     

     

    >>

     

     

    totally agree – phone Ajax and PSV etc and ask them if we can play in the dutch league. How hard can it be? away games would be interesting for the support

  10. !!Bada Bing!! on

    TR-i was in the Presidential Suite at CP last year.A Celtic Director was giving out handshakes that would put Tiny Wharton/Greig picture to shame.He is on a few SFA Committees and rumour has it he’s a Dons fan.HH

  11. glendalystonsils on

    Reports coming in suggest that captain Ahab has just set sail in the ‘Pequod’ in an attempt to capture Leigh Griffiths.

  12. Joe Filippis Haircut on

    Bada Bing. Who are the Masons on the Celtic Board or is this an assumption on your part ? I think we the support should know who they are. H.H.

  13. whitedoghunch on

    Am I right in thinking Paul Larkins next piece of work is going to take a look at the refereeing establishment in scotland from its inception- and a timely hello to a Paddy Pearse I worked with 20 years ago whom I’m sure will look in here a fine man

  14. 16 roads - Celtic über alles... on

    Ridiculous that Meekings is being targeted by the SFA. He did cheat, however it wasn’t premeditated, just an act of desperation to prevent a goal.

     

     

    I wouldn’t like to see him missing the final because this scenario wouldn’t be taking place if only the real culprits had made the correct and honest decision.

     

     

    Rotten they are.

     

     

    HH.

  15. GlassTwoThirdsFull on

    Livibhoy

     

    I wasn’t too impressed by the holding his face. Yes players will cheat, but that was taking the p.

  16. johann murdoch on

    Inverness now considering legal action about Meekings being cited..this could get interesting…..

     

     

    *fromtwittersoitmustbetrue

  17. glendalystonsils on

    GlassTwoThirdsFull

     

    16:29 on

     

    21 April, 2015

     

    Ronny freshens things up for Wednesday by announcing that Stuart Armstrong, Gary Mackay-Steven and John Guidetti come in for Leigh Griffiths.

     

     

    And to save washing, all three will wear Leigh Griffiths strip simultaneously.

  18. GlassTwoThirdsFull on

    Anyway, this is purely about “moving the story on”. MSM will be all on this now.

  19. Joe Filippis Haircut on

    johann murdoch. I dont think legal action would help ICT both the player and the Inverness manager admitted he handled the ball and the player said he expected to get sent off.H.H.

  20. !!Bada Bing!! on

    JFH-No i can’t say 100%,but i know a masonic handshake when i see one.He was trying to hide it but he didn’t do a good job.I have no doubts.HH

  21. GlassTwoThirdsFull

     

     

    I get what you mean I really do but the manager has probably said get us in this final at all costs. This is like a European final for Inverness players.

     

    They were there to win at all costs and gave their all and done whatever it took to get in the final.

     

     

    I’m not saying it is right but Ronaldo one the same to his mate Rooney in international football not so long ago. That is the way of the game. The referee is there to make sure it doesn;t happen. The referee failed.

     

     

    LB

  22. Joe Filippis Haircut on

    The people who should be taken to task are the match officials who did not give the penalty.In my opinion they are not fit and proper to participate in football at any level.This is what Celtic should be pressing for as it would make others think before they tried to cheat our great club. H.H.

  23. glendalystonsils on

    Meekings’ citation is the SFA’s way of avoiding the issue by addressing a side issue.

  24. The Green Man on

    The SFA now blaming the ICT player for their incompetence….wow.

     

    Surely this cant go on.

     

     

     

    HH

  25. So Meekings rejects the offer !

     

    what is the betting on 3 man panel “ruling” it was not deliberate hand ball,Meekings has no case to answer and plays in final.

  26. Dontbrattbakkinanger on

    They seek him here

     

     

    They seek him there

     

     

    Those Linesmen seek him everywhere

     

     

    Is he in heaven?

     

     

    Is he in hell?

     

     

    That damned elusive Thumbernel

  27. I have it on good authority – a taxi driver – that Lord Livingstone of Parkheid is a mason!

     

     

    HH!!