Omission bias research and refs with grudges

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The SFA Head of Refereeing, John Fleming, spoke about the semi-final incident on Sunday, largely to protect his fraternity.  Referee Steven McLean made a huge error but Fleming said “I don’t think there was anyone in the ground who would have thought it was 100% a penalty and sending off until they had seen the replay.”

This flies in the face of the Celtic players who claimed for a penalty on the spot, the raised voices from thousands of Celtic supporters, and the shout from the TV commentator.  Fleming’s assertion is demonstrably untrue.

He is a man in a position of authority at the SFA.  He is allowed to have opinions, or to disagree with any club, but making untrue statements to protect his referees is a wholly inappropriate.  If is the standard referees are held to, no wonder we have problems.  Having asked for clarification on the refereeing error yesterday, I expect Celtic will be even keener on an explanation for Fleming’s incredulous comment.

I’ve linked here to a Stanford University report on Omission Bias in Sports.  The report finds that people are biased to favour inaction (i.e. don’t make a decision) over action (make a decision which will have a profound impact).

It’s an interesting concept which good refereeing guidance will account for.  They found that “For all sports, effect [is]stronger if game is close and weak when score is lopsided”.

Omission bias is what we should be looking for in Scottish football.  Evidence this video of former referee Kenny Clark, who while still officiating SPL games told an audience that he held a grudge against Celtic’s John Hartson and failed to award him a foul which he saw clearly enough to describe in some detail.

Unfortunately, no journalist has ever been able to contact Mr Clark to ask him about his grudges or omission bias.  If this was England, the media would not allow Clark to flaunt omission bias while defending it in others, he would be called to account.

See above, Sunday’s officials greeting each other on the pitch before kick off.  Before the dust settles on this one, some of us better learn a new handshake.  Those wanting real change at the SFA will have to fight for it.

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  1. bournesouprecipe on

    I remember when Celtic asked a question and the “the refereeing community” was born.

  2. ....PFayr supports WeeOscar on

    Excellent article P67

     

     

    I can only hope CFC are as pointed in their communication

     

     

    HH

  3. Stan and Stefan - Sitting doon for Scott Broon on

    the long wait is over

     

     

    13:44 on 21 April, 2015

     

    Stan and Stefan – Sitting doon for Scott Broon

     

     

    13:07 on

     

     

    21 April, 2015

     

     

    The real shame is that the story should be about “wee team beats big team in cup upset” and instead is about the officials.

     

    —————————

     

     

    With respect, it’s not – the real story should , in all probability , have been about us getting to the final and the treble still on.

     

     

    I accept , of course, that there was no guarantee of that but the odds of us going through when at least 1-0 up and probably 2 and ICT down to 10 men would meant that the headline of “Small beats big Team” would never have seen the light of day.

     

     

    What’s more ICT are third in the top league of Scottish football and therefore don’t qualify IMHO as a small team.

     

     

    Now, if they were playing in the second tier of Scottish football…

     

     

    ——-

     

     

    I accept your point that it should be about us going for the treble.

     

     

    However, my intention was that cup upsets do happen. And the story of ICT getting to the final should not be about how we were cheated. It should be about “underdog” (aka wee team) beats favourites.

     

     

    Instead BECAUSE their victory was due to the officials the story has the wrong focus.

     

     

    Caley Thistle Go Balisitc Officials are Atrocious is not quite the same as the original.

  4. bournesouprecipe on

    Leigh Griffiths weave, is now to be known by conspiracy theorists as The Grassy Knoll.

  5. The Green Man on

    I believe that from the side….Leigh Griff is as wide as the Indian Subcontinent, and that’s why they never saw the handball.

  6. !!Bada Bing!! on

    Compliance Officer charges Leigh Griffiths , with leaning against a building in Pisa in 1372.He has until Thusday @ 11am,to accept a 2 game ban.

  7. Dontbrattbakkinanger on

    I can see clearly now

     

     

    The Thumb has gone

     

     

    I can see all ob-stacles in my way

     

     

    Gone are the green hoops that had me blind

     

     

    It’s gonna be a bright, bright sunshiny day

     

     

    DBBIA/JimmyCliffCSC

  8. oneofthe70percent on

    Celtic,s statement was weak rubbish we should be talking about legal action , a replay of the tie and the demoting of the officials involved,though unlike MR O,DONNELL who was demoted to grade 3 after wallace mercer reported him for not awarding hearts a penalty a celtic park, mr mclean does not have a dodgy surname and probably knows the correct handshake to use,we should be getting UEFA AND FIFA involved in this,CELTIC THE MOST CHEATED TEAM IN FOOTBALL HISTORY

  9. The Green Man on

    I believe the SFA are also looking into rumours, that Leigh Griff was instrumental in the insurrection that overthrew the Bastille in 1789.

     

    They are saying they have video evidence.

     

     

     

     

    HH

  10. I know I’am a bit late with the question (old age) What happened to big JG (there excuse might have been more convincing if he had been involved in the penalty incident) with the trumped up charge about his song.

  11. jamesgang

     

     

    Hahahahahaa

     

    We were talking about the fitba at the weekend and my wee bhoy asked my wife who she liked and she said Hibs and daddy likes Celtic. The wee man said I like Scooby Doo.

     

     

    Leigh Griffiths is a player you either love or hate. Currently the officials love him.

     

     

    LB

  12. dontbrattbakkinanger

     

     

    Boydichenko?

     

     

    Livibhoy

     

     

    My wee mhan asked me the other day. How come so many celtic fans like Bob marley???

     

     

    HH jamesgang

  13. The Blogger Formerly Known As GM on

    The SMSM response to this is as old as the hills – wheel out a soup taker and BOOM, there’s yer dinner Timmy, one of your own says move along, there’s nothing to see here and the whole thing gets swept under the carpet. Until the next time….

  14. danso_1888

     

    13:51 on

     

    21 April, 2015

     

    for those calling for a bhoycott of sfa matches including fa cup wise up celtic wont do it

     

     

    they are to greedy and will forget this episode as soon as the next money spinner comes along we get what we deserve and we are a greedy club.

     

     

     

    Nothing to do with Celtic.Its the fans who would be boycotting.Its the only way.Empty stadiums,will hurt the SFA like nothing else.Will the Celtic fans do it?.

     

    If they want to get at the cheating,corrupt,bassas,its the only way.

     

    Let the team take part,just dont pay to go and see.

  15. Tim Malone Will Tell on

    From space, the only man made objects visible to the naked eye are The Great Wall of China and Leigh Griffith’s Celtic shirt.

  16. ‘What did you say ’bout my Momma?’

     

     

    ‘I said yo Momma ain’t just fat – yo Momma Leigh Griffiths fat…’

  17. !!Bada Bing!! on

    Lamont fae Shortbread asked John Collins if the Club should have made it public about asking SFA re Sunday’s cheating………we know where he’s going with that one.JC should have asked him what there was to hide.

  18. The Green Man on

    The SFA are also disturbed by rumours that Leigh Griff might have been involved in the Angolan Revolution during the seventies, disguised as a Marxist revolutionary(MPLA), helping the Angolans and Cubans to defeat the South Africans, by kicking a ball against a shutter for hours on end.

     

    Again, they have twitter feeds proving it.

     

     

     

    HH

  19. GlassTwoThirdsFull on

    Ronny freshens things up for Wednesday by announcing that Stuart Armstrong, Gary Mackay-Steven and John Guidetti come in for Leigh Griffiths.

  20. blantyretim is praying for the Knox family on

    Tried to get a wee pic off pierce park for clogher Celt on the way past but Leigh Griffiths passed in the opposite direction

     

     

    Flipping scotrail

  21. clogher celt

     

    15:48 on

     

    21 April, 2015

     

    Have been doing a bit of work recently around the CEO… Not having an opinion,see what you think

     

     

    http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/233354

     

     

    Clogher, excellent wee article.

     

     

    Own the vision…… lol, you trying to start a riot? :-)

     

     

    Hail Hail

  22. Only the SFA could blame a Celtic player for Celtic not getting a penalty. Leigh should be in the running for a science award for his ability to teleport in front of many people at once.

     

     

    LB

  23. Lennon n Mc....Mjallby on

    It beggars belief that we’ve had to put up with this coordinated cheating against us for our entire history,the solution being we extricate ourselves from Scottish football.

     

     

    Is it such an impossibility for the club to do this?

  24. The American’s have the folk tale about Paul Bunyan, we have Leigh Thumbyan.

     

     

    Leigh disnae have a giant blue bull as his pet though, as it died in 2012…

     

    He now has a Tunnock’s Teacake the size of Uddingston…

  25. Snake Plissken on

    Charging Meekings lets the REAL culprit off the hook.

     

     

    The match won’t be replayed, they player didn’t cheat because he himself new what he had done and expected the penalty and red card.

     

     

    His team are in the final because of the referee. It is the referee who should be sacked, banned or whatever.

     

     

    This move by the compliance officer shoots holes in any notion that the SFA can offer a defence of the officials.

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