Penalty competitions are not decided by random luck. Teams from higher divisions win against lower division opponents more often than the reverse, by 8 percentage points. That advantage pales into insignificance compared to the benefits of going first in a penalty competition.
A 2010 study published in the American Economic Review found a systemic first-mover advantage. Teams going first in a penalty competition won on 60% of occasions. The study found players had more success taking a kick that would put them into the lead, than when they were merely drawing level.
The difference was most pronounced comparing a kick to win a competition, which had a 92% conversion rate, with a kick to avoid defeat, which was successful on 62% of occasions. This is a manifestation of Loss Aversion. The fear of losing something hugely impacts our behaviour, far more than the prospect of winning does. I could get distracted here and say the fear of losing 10-in-a-row took hold at Celtic Park, at the cost of where heads should have been.
Another 2010 study examined Emotional Contagion and penalty competitions. Players who celebrated after their kick were more likely to be on the winning side than those who quietly returned to the centre circle. Specifically, a player who immediately follows an opponent that celebrates extravagantly is more likely to miss than when this factor is controlled for.
This study’s conclusion is quite fascinating, “that emotional contagion is an important process in the context of elite sport performance.” From all these years writing and reading CQN, I could suggest that emotional contagion works in all aspects of life. It is a real thing that has an impact on those around us.
A 2012 article in Economic Inquiry promoted a tweak to penalty competitions. Instead of Team A always kicking ahead of Team B, it suggested Team A – Team B, then Team B – Team A, or ABBA, not ABAB. The ABBA system has been trialed and proven to eliminate the first-mover advantage, however, various authorities have thought it too confusing for fans!
Practice is a whole other area, one that was rejected on these shores for many years. The challenge here is that the problem for an elite professional is not to kick a ball 12 yards, but to do so in acute circumstances that are impossible to replicated on the training field.
A 2010 study out of University of Plymouth found that practice through Functional Imagery Training was found to improve penalty kick outcomes (other types of practice, which were used as a control, did not). So practice, but only if you know how to practice.
I also read a study that found if you are facing your own fans you are more likely to win a penalty competition, but I can’t find it……
We put a lot of work into finding advantages at Celtic. Improving penalty outcomes is one of the clearest benefits we can achieve. It is a bit too late for others.
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Appropriate that we send our two Kitmen to the Jimmy Bell service.
Around the time of their death it is right & proper to show respect to those people by not saying anything bad about them. Dead people can no longer hurt us, or defend themselves, so human decency demands that we let things settle for a while – it is no hardship.
Over time this protocol weakens and deeds & reputations can be discussed with less sensitivity.
I did not know Jimmy Bell and, anything negative I have heard about him is only hearsay – not saying it’s not true, but I would not presume to judge him on that basis.
The celebrating after a penalty in a shootout thing. Wow. I’d be the opposite. That’s exactly why I’m not a top sportsperson or anything close!!
I watched the replay of the EL final penalties and thought I wouldn’t have enjoyed the frankfurt players giving the orcs the shush sign had I watched in real time. But perhaps that is part of their preparation? I take it top coaches know these studies and advise players accordingly?
Have to say the orc penalties were taken pretty well too. Apart from the one that counted (roofes was so so). They must know how to practice them? Still, going first, own fans etc Adds to the deliciousness of their failure!!
Any penalty that goes in is a good one I suppose, however, I thought Tavernier’s was a bit dodgy. Not dissimilar to Ramsey’s.
RobertTressell on 20th May 2022 5:27 pm
The celebrating after a penalty in a shootout thing. Wow. I’d be the opposite. That’s exactly why I’m not a top sportsperson or anything close!!
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Would the celebrating be just so intense if the penalty shoot out was before the match?
The old Glasgow Cup & Glasgow Charity Cup had it taped when they used the number of corners to settle a drawn game in regulation/extra, time.
Celtic 2 goals & 5 corners – Clyde 2 goals & 3 corners….Celtic go through.
With the betting industry able to ‘break down’ games so accurately now – why not use fouls & bookings in the same way……….oh, silly me, I’m forgetting the MIB – we might never win a game again.
https://gript.ie/match-fixing-in-the-league-of-ireland-and-some-dodgy-bet
Scullbhoy, just putting this out there, but what about doing it at half time? Could work.
Or full time but before the extra time has started?
woooft.
get ready for a flurry of union defenders.
no surrenders
—————-
Michelle O’Neill
@moneillsf
·
3h
Delighted to meet Scotland’s First Minister
@NicolaSturgeon
in beautiful Edinburgh. The historic bonds between Scotland & the island of Ireland go back centuries. We enjoy a long & enduring affinity as neighbours & friends. Moving forward we will strengthen the bonds that tie us.
https://twitter.com/moneillsf/status/1527637960656560128/photo/1
ROBERTTRESSELL on 20TH MAY 2022 5:41 PM
Scullbhoy, just putting this out there, but what about doing it at half time? Could work.
Or full time but before the extra time has started?
————
I actually like that idea.
and only the subs can take them,,
and do away with extra time.
so a team that lost the halftime penalties will go all out to win the second half.
might work.
Saint Stubs
However and whatever party was in power she should have asked her why there is still so much anti Irish Catholic discrimination in Scotland.
Whoever not however
https://thecelticblog.com/2022/05/media/ibrox-on-fyre-how-the-peepul-and-the-media-were-seduced-by-a-big-nothing/
i was over bishy station earlier.
young zombie came off the train. all sunburned and suffering, his orange and blue seville top looked minging. dragging his suitcase behind him, if a picture could paint just a few words, it would be abject in defeat.
hope he a ticket for the cup final.
i couldnt help but give him a big grin.
Sky Sports Go to Scots correspondent. Laughable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3BP3VgHyMY
Only in Scotland can Boyd be compared to Henryk and Newco in Europa League (if they won it) be better than the Lisbon Lions.
These Wallopers are given oxygen by a Hun Friendly media.
I hope the Jam Farts win the morra, that utter cheat made sure Celtic didnae make the Final. Any assessment of his performance would mean Madden wouldnae Referee a game again.
This should have been another Treble.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=trS2nrkN0_k
St.Anthony
@Stephen4_2
·
May 19
Two young Celtic fans from late 1960’s in their supporter’s attire which fans wore back then. It’s a long shot but maybe someone out there knows of them ? RT’s welcome for this one.
https://twitter.com/Stephen4_2/status/1527199696141393920/photo/1
BIG GG and wee KYOGO are gonnae rock next Season.
Aha, ha, ha, ha,ha, ha😂😂😂😂
Sorry, can’t help it, don’t know what’s come from over me. I’ve never been this giddy since, since Celtic won the league and qualified for Champions League.
Ah, ha ,ha, ha😂😂😂
Love it.
SAINT STIVS on 20TH MAY 2022 5:42 PM
You have to wonder which of the two of them is the more anxious to avoid having a referendum/border poll.
Politics is a funny old game.
Saint Stivs 6.14. You are awful but I like you. Duck Emery CSC. 😂😂
Ffs Dick 😂😂. Terrible thing the drink. 😂😂
St Stives were is the Barrowfield Photos please
something quite historical that Connolly was born in Edinburgh 1868, and 154 years later, Sinn Fein are going up the stairs at an official residence in the square.
i am away to see what flag the neighbour has up tonight or if its at half mast
dearie me, the easdales makes scotland rich list on £1.3 billion.
those berz did a grand job chasing them out the door.
‘The historic bonds between Scotland & the island of Ireland go back centuries. ‘
####
‘They are the blood of our blood and the bone of our bone,’ as her predecessor put it.
It is indeed a long connection. Almost as long as this link.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fccdl.claremont.edu%2Fdigital%2Fcollection%2Fmni%2Fid%2F4719%2F&psig=AOvVaw3LwpsNyMjpEWU7eI-1wuKd&ust=1653155183057000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CAkQjRxqFwoTCJDS3o3R7vcCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAE
I was out with an old friend of mine after our game last Saturday. He has worked and lived in Edinburgh for the past 30 years.
He told me the Hearts fans he works with don’t believe they will win the cup but beating Hibs in the semi final was good enough for them. My pal also said the Hearts guys told him their players have switched off for the season and won’t be able to raise their game for the final.
It’s worrying if the Hearts players and fans have switched off despite their opponents playing in the oppressive heat for two hours plus the psychological pain of losing in Seville, which in theory , should be to Hearts’ ’ advantage.
SAINT STIVS on 20TH MAY 2022 6:14 PM
i was over bishy station earlier.
young zombie came off the train. all sunburned and suffering, his orange and blue seville top looked minging. dragging his suitcase behind him, if a picture could paint just a few words, it would be abject in defeat.
hope he a ticket for the cup final.
i couldnt help but give him a big grin.
Ha! I had a similar situation the other day at Liverpool Lime Street. Wee fat hun sat next to his scarf on a bench in the station close to tears with a Seville Europa League Final t shirt on. He was about 17 (years not stone) and just didn’t have the heart to wind him up.
Probably should have, but he looked sick enough tbh.
That was good enough for me. 😂
Perry Como special on BBC 4 – for those is a certain vintage aka auld gits
Saint Stivs on 20th May 2022 5:48 pm
ROBERTTRESSELL on 20TH MAY 2022 5:41 PM
Scullbhoy, just putting this out there, but what about doing it at half time? Could work.
Or full time but before the extra time has started?
————
I actually like that idea.
and only the subs can take them,,
and do away with extra time.
so a team that lost the halftime penalties will go all out to win the second half.
might work.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Is it just for knock out games, or just for the second game of a home and away? Can you use players like TAVPen just for the pens and sub them before the main game? Questions and more questions.
THE BLOGGER FORMERLY KNOWN AS GM on 20TH MAY 2022 6:33 PM
Aha, ha, ha, ha,ha, ha😂😂😂😂
Sorry, can’t help it, don’t know what’s come from over me. I’ve never been this giddy since, since Celtic won the league and qualified for Champions League.
Ah, ha ,ha, ha😂😂😂
Love it.
————————————
Was saying the same to my pal today (a tim obviously) that I was dreading them winning, but had no idea the joy them losing would bring me for days and may even go into weeks after their result. Never read so many Celtic blogs or sites in one week.
Can’t stop smiling and some of the put-downs/trolling or whatever have been class.
Loving every minute. 😂😂😂
P/c @ 5.10
That is the issue — TFOD2.1 live in too may heads in our support.
PL put out excuse after excuse about how the CL then the EuL then the EuConL then the Inter Toto Cup was a step too far / not for the likes of us.
And too many on here agreed with that argument.
Now the TFOD2.1 have made a go of it in Europe and now too many in the support are demanding that we do the same or hopefully better their exploits — that is not a plan for the future that is just bragging rights for Bronskis.
The board hadn’t a clue what to do during the 4 years they were out of the SPL.
No plans to build up the club using new challenges when they were not around.
Strategically — DD luvs the TFOD2.1 as he needs them to achieve his dream of EPL football.
Tactically — PL luvs the TFOD2.1 as he needs them to bring in the easy money.
If we lose the league — we will turn up in droves to try and win it back.
If we win the league — we will turn up in droves to stick it to them at every opportunity.
We need to forget about them and do our own thing.
AP has provided a platform to do our own thing.
Not sure if it was luck or judgement but he is offering something new.
Expand our global reach and get outsiders interested in our football / background / ethos.
Huge step forward regarding a growth agenda and hopefully more to come.
We are not two cheeks of the same erse — we are a different footballing species.
‘The historic bonds between Scotland & the island of Ireland go back centuries. ‘
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Is their desire for independence shared as well – a sort of a Kelltic thing?
Bro Walfrid Kell-tic CSC
JVR…I don’t believe for a single moment that the Hearts players have already switched off for the season. A cup final doesn’t come around often (unless you are a Celtic player) and when it does you don’t switch off for it. It’s a big opportunity for a winners medal and a celebration…but they’ll have to fight for it ’cause the huns will still be favourites.
SCULLYBHOY on 20TH MAY 2022 7:06 PM
‘Is their desire for independence shared as well – a sort of a Kelltic thing?’
##
No. One one to get rid of a border that partitions an island, the other wish to create a border and partition an island.
And, in crude terms, one, historically at least, was an oppressed people, the other an oppressor.
What I want to know though is why there’s no saltire in the official photie?
JHB on 20th May 2022 5:24 pm
Appropriate that we send our two Kitmen to the Jimmy Bell service.
Around the time of their death it is right & proper to show respect to those people by not saying anything bad about them. Dead people can no longer hurt us, or defend themselves, so human decency demands that we let things settle for a while – it is no hardship.
Over time this protocol weakens and deeds & reputations can be discussed with less sensitivity.
I did not know Jimmy Bell and, anything negative I have heard about him is only hearsay – not saying it’s not true, but I would not presume to judge him on that basis.
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As a Catholic Christian, I agree. Does this charity extend to those who vote SNP, or are they just beneath contempt?
Leeds and Burnley are threatening legal action against Everton and the Premier League over the handling of the club’s finances.
Both clubs wrote to the league last week regarding Everton’s most recent accounts which showed losses of £120.9m for the 2020-21 season.
They have posted losses of £372m over the past three years.
League profitability and sustainability rules allow for losses of £105m over a three-year period.
But Everton say that Covid-19 losses over the past two seasons amount to £170m.
That figure has caused surprise among some Premier League teams because it dwarfs clubs of a similar size.
Earlier this week, Newcastle posted Covid-19 losses of £40m over the past two seasons, while Aston Villa said theirs amounted to £56m.
Everton, who have been involved in a relegation battle with Leeds and Burnley, secured their Premier League status on Thursday with a 3-2 win over Crystal Palace.
But they are confident they are compliant with Premier League rules and have been “working formally” with the league.
Burnley and Leeds want an independent commission to assess Everton’s finances urgently.
It is understood they are viewing the matter as one of sporting integrity given that the Toffees spent more money in the last transfer window by signing Dele Alli, Vitaliy Mykolenko and Nathan Patterson for nearly £70m.
Burnley, Leeds and the Premier League declined to comment when contacted by BBC Sport.
When releasing their accounts in March, Everton said their actual losses were about £170m over three years because Covid losses can be written off, with the figure calculated as an average over the last two seasons.
They also said other costs including spending on their new Bramley Moore Dock stadium and on the club’s academy and the women’s team bring their finances into line.
Everton said in March they remain in a “secure financial position” after further support from their owner Farhad Moshiri, who has put more than £600m into the club since he first bought shares in the club in 2016.
But they have suspended sponsorship deals with companies owned or part-owned by Alisher Usmanov, after the Russian billionaire was sanctioned by the UK government and European Union following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Usmanov is a close business associate of Moshiri and also paid Everton £30m for naming rights of their as yet unbuilt stadium, which is set to open in 2024.
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Interesting?
So Moshiri works for Usmanov but he is deemed to be ok when Usmanov is sanctioned, both clubs have a case here and where is the money coming from for the new stadium?
WEEBOBBYCOLLINS on 20TH MAY 2022 7:14 PM
JVR…I don’t believe for a single moment that the Hearts players have already switched off for the season.
someting i have never thought of saying. Andy Halliday is quite articulate and fair on tv and radio.
he gave a really good interview of why they are up for it, and why he wants to win a medal, regardless of who he plays against, and its the same for souttar. he said upset family but he would kick his granny to be a winner.
i kinda believed him.
lets see.