My friends in Celtic, we finish the year top of the league having just schooled our nearest rivals for the second time in two games. A dip in form ended just in time to see the club collect nine points from three games, with an important trip to St Mirren to complete before the winter break. All is right for three-in-a-row.
So why am I so worried? It’s about the strategic direction the club takes going forward. I don’t want to just win the league, or even just qualify for the Champions League. I am 56 years old, I want to see Celtic dive deep into that tournament. I want to see us achieve what Neil Lennon and Gordon Strachan did in Europe, even if the achievements of Jock Stein’s era are nothing more than a fantasy.
If we get everything right, I believe a successful football club can come from our league and achieve what the best in Holland or Portugal have done. To get there, we need to double down on what we are good at, improve where we can and avoid the obvious pitfalls.
Since 2021 we have concentrated development resources into players (largely) under 24 years old. Augmented by the significant contribution of a then-unknown (i.e. risky) Kyogo, this has delivered an enormous haul of trophies. Celtic finished a distant second in 2021 but have dropped only two domestic trophies since, a period in which their main rivals reached significant milestones in European competition.
Finding and developing players of the calibre of Carter-Vickers, Jota, Hatate, Maeda, O’Riley and Abada is so obviously where Celtic are as a club, it defies explanation (but here we are). The aforementioned benefited from arriving at the club during a period of rebuilt. In the squad, goalkeeper, defence, midfield and attack were all overhauled. The new arrivals got gametime and soon flourished.
This summer, our man outlays went on Nawrocki €5m, Palma, €4.75m, Lagerbielke €3.4m, Holm €3m, with an option to buy Bernardo for €6m. Palma was first to get a sustained opportunity and has thrived, scoring in the Champions League and recording assists in important games.
After a run of only three starts, Paulo Bernardo was the toast of Celtic Park. He contributes every inch as much as Matt O’Riley and at €6m is an absolute steal – IF we contribute to develop him correctly, and not allow him to wither on the vine.
Odin Holm (20) has the potential to be every bit as good as Paulo and Matt. He has had a terrible time with illness since arriving in Glasgow, but he will fully recuperate and by his peak years will be performing in a top European league.
For reasons I have not been able to fathom, Gustaf Lagerbielke’s face doesn’t seem to fit. The player has scarcely taken to the field, and when he did, he scored a Champions League winner, but minds have been made up.
On the other hand, great things are expected of Maik Nawrocki. He has endured persistent injuries since August, and was thrown into the deep end yesterday, but the consensus at Lennoxtown is that he will also play his peak years in a top European league.
If Celtic have been exceptional at anything in recent years, it is finding and developing great prospects. We need to do more of this, we need to look for ways to improve it, and we need to lead the club with this exceptional strategy. Convince the footballing world, if you have talent, Celtic will find it and grow it into something great.
Luck plays a part in football. Injuries, illness and opportunity can all determine whether or not a player is successful. But in this respect anyway, luck eventually evens itself out. Can we all agree, let’s have more of Cater-Vickers, Nawrocki, Jota, Palma, Abada, Holm and Hatate.
So with the strategic plan clearly so successful why am I worried? We lose two league games, get our backsides handed to us in Madrid, and we want a quick and lazy fix (which will not work).
This “we need more experienced players” harks back to past successes, like the phenomenal Scott Sinclair. But Scott came 8 years ago and the world has changed since then. “More experience players” means fewer like Nawrocki and more like Nat Phillips. Nat is 26, has experience in the EPL and Champions League with Liverpool and is exactly the player we can expect to sign when we go for “more experience”.
Nat is not the only example. Let me disturb your afternoon with memories of Duffy, Laxalt, Bauer, Marvelous Marvin Compper, Gamboa, Toure and (still on the payroll) James McCarthy! Look across the city. They have gone full pelt with this strategy; Lammers, Dessers, Danilo, Dowell, the wee boy with the tints in his hair, Davies and Lundstrum.
It’s not cheap either. Despite being universally acknowledged as being rubbish, they have a higher payroll than Celtic; Dessers is on £30k per week and that big lump Lundstrum banks £40k a week to traipse around in Callum McGregor’s shadow.
It is a strategy, but it’s a rubbish one. It leads to a development dead end, not just with respect of the players, but for the club as a whole. The chances of bringing a Scott Sinclair-type talent to Scottish football are remote, this is what “more experienced” looks like and it isn’t pretty.
This is where we are: Nawrocki or Phillips, Bernardo or Lammers. There is only one way forward for Celtic, do more of what we are good at, do it ruthlessly, without exception. Even Brendan should have personal developmental goals. This is where Alex Ferguson was so exceptional and others (Martin, even Jock), didn’t adapt. Managers need to be confident enough to disarm and learn.
It’s also worth correcting a commonly held belief that Celtic have a particularly young team. If our preferred starting 11 includes Abada and Hatate instead of Palma and Bernardo in yesterday’s line-up, the average age is 26.6 years. We are a team with a decent range of youth and experience.
Jota, Carter-Vickers et al gave us a reputation as a great place to for a young prospect to come to. If we screw up with the (also very good) most recent crop of recruits, we will not get next season’s crop, they will go elsewhere.
The next two transfer windows are pivotal to the direction of the club. The manner in which we won the game yesterday, with Bernardo and Nawrocki writing the script, adds valuable perspective on where we are and where we should be moving. Double down, be the best and what we are very good at, no reverse gear, no Phillips, Duffys, Comppers in a vain effort to find Sinclair.
Our condolences to the family of Len Murray, Celtic fan, lawyer and twice guest speaker at the CQN Golf Day. Len was a warm man of great intellect and a devastatingly entertaining manner.
Many thanks to those who helped me on CQN this year, Alex Gordon in particular and the two Mods (one on temp vacation) – honestly the worst role in football!
Thanks also for everyone who drops in to give their thoughts or only for a read. I know so many people I respect who read this stuff. Not everyone ‘gets’ this club. You can see the intelletual sneering in some who have left grubby matters like thier football team behind; they have no idea what they have lost. It is a tonic to know my Celtic addition is shared by people I like. This is who we are, it is our link to the generations past and forward, and for some of us, that really matters.
Take care and have a great 2024!
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Where to start with this article? If we assume that Paul has inside info, it indicates that the club haven’t learnt the correct lessons and, even worse, appear to have constructed a false narrative about events since 2021. For instance:
“Since 2021 we have concentrated development resources into players (largely) under 24 years old. Augmented by the significant contribution of a then-unknown (i.e. risky) Kyogo, this has delivered an enormous haul of trophies.”
This isn’t factually correct – in Ange’s first season we signed 17 players. Of those, 10 were 24 or older and Hart, Juranovic, Starfelt, CCV, Hatate, Maeda, and Giakoumakis contributed to our success almost as much as Kyogo. Only McCarthy and Ideguchi didn’t contribute much. Of those 7 players under 24, only 3 made a considerable contribution – Jota, Abada and O’Riley. Scales (although has come good), Shaw, Uroghide and Kenny did nothing.
2022 saw 10 players arrive of which 5 were 24 or older – Mooy, Seigrist, Abilgaard, Iwata and Alistair Johnstone. Bernabei, Haksabanovic, Jenz, Kobayashi and Oh also arrived. Only three made any real contribution – Mooy, Jenz and Johnstone.
Fast forward to this summer and we did indeed “double down” as Paul suggests. 9 signings of which all but Phillips are under 24. It’s early days but the article suggests Nawrocki, Holm, Palma and Bernardo are rated by the club. Lagerbeilke is clearly for the off and Yang, Tillio and Kwon don’t even warrant a mention.
Paul also references the wage differential between us and them – how they get less bang for wages. However the obsession we seem to have with the project signing has seen us pour £8m down the drain on Yang, Tillio, Kwon and Lagerbeilke, plus accumulated wages: c26k per week according to Salary Sport which equates to £6.76m over the length of their contracts.
However, for our 24 and over cohort, we’ve moved Juranovic, Giakoumakis, Ideguchi and Starfelt on and made a c£5m profit. Hart, Johnstone, Kyogo, CCV, Maeda, and Hatate continue to form the backbone of our team. Iwata is still in and around the squad. Mooy joined on a free and retired having contributed. Abildgaard came and went on loan without any shedding of tears, much like Phillips will. McCarthy and Seigrist joined on frees and will no doubt leave on frees – wages poured down the drain in those cases (£29k per week according to Salary Sport).
That equates to a “hit rate” of around 63% on our over 24 cohort – much better than the hit rate of 35% on our under 24 cohort (33% if you exclude the summer signings).
I’m not saying we should just sign over 24 year olds. We should have a development and player trading element to how we operate. But Paul reckons we can mirror what Dutch and Portuguese teams do but misses that they tend to also bring back former players at the end of their careers to guide and support the young players – we will always find that hard as we can’t compete with EPL clubs financially, but we should be alert to bringing in the Mooys and Starfelts to help the team and young players.
“If Celtic have been exceptional at anything in recent years, it is finding and developing great prospects. We need to do more of this, we need to look for ways to improve it, and we need to lead the club with this exceptional strategy. Convince the footballing world, if you have talent, Celtic will find it and grow it into something great.”
The lesson we seem to have learned is double down on finding projects. But if you look at the players we’ve developed and sold on for good money – Forster, Frimpong, VVD, Wanyama, Armstrong, Jota, Eduoard and Dembele – there’s been one common theme. All of them were good enough that after a few months of adjustment/settling they had got into and stayed in the first team and performed well when in. Of our big sales, only Ajer bucks the trend but he joined us at 16 so was always going to be a long term project.
By contrast, we’ve seen a litany of failures over the period – projects like the Baldes, Banguras, Bayos, etc and experienced players like Ajeti, Barkas, Duffy, McCarthy, etc alike. In those instances a sizeable section of the support could see that they weren’t going to make it – the projects were miles off being good enough to get into the team and the experienced players just didn’t suit the way we play (Ajeti too immobile, Duffy a defend deep kind of guy, McCarthy an injury prone guy who didn’t have the legs for the system the manager wanted to play).
We’ve learnt the wrong lesson – what we’re good at is taking guys with talent and giving them the opportunity to develop from “Celtic quality” to “top league quality” and a platform to display that. We’re not good at taking guys with some potential, turning them into Celtic quality and improving them further so they move onto top leagues. Our lack of bringing through Academy players demonstrates that.
If we want to follow that approach, we need to get the talent when they are younger (Tillio and Kwon at 22 are not going to be developed into £10m+ players) and have a B Team or feeder club at a good level that we can use to develop them for a few years. We’d need that team to have high quality coaches – outside the first team, we’re populated by coaches who’s previous experience is, at best, Motherwell level – and that is a large part of why our Academy churns out, at best, Motherwell-level players.
If we’re not going to sort out a proper “second team” with good coaching and talent scouted and brought in younger (18-19 years old) then we need to focus on bringing in under-24 talent who are good enough to get in the first team and supplement that with more experienced players who can contribute. Financial and on-pitch benefits then take care of themselves.
Not read back .. and can’t be arsed
Peter Lawell is more of a Celtic than every one if his detractors
Enjoy Celtic … 🍀🍀🍀
Of not if
Grammar.. I blame the taig/catholic schools :-) 🍀
Just back from celebrating New Year in Amsterdam. Watched the game in Molly Malone’s, great atmosphere and brilliant result. Never fails to amaze me the number of Celtic supporters you meet wherever you are in the world. Special mention to a good guy Scot, originally from Pollock, now living with his Dutch girlfriend Anuka in Utrecht, but travelled to Amsterdam to watch the game. YNWA indeed 👍☘️
If you’re looking in Scot, apologies, it is of course Anouk and not Anuka 🙈
Good night all from Govanhill.
Not sure if I missed it in earlier posts or from previous articles…
But I thought that we (Celtic) owned the term ‘Old Firm’ so it couldnt be used in marketing and promotional materials either at all or at least without our ‘say-so ?
So it bugged me that the huns slavering spokesperson statement used the ‘OF’ term several times.
A meringue thinking we are not half of anything OF ish ??
COCKLESOFHEARTSTILLWARM CSC
2-1
If there’s never anybody worthwhile signing in the January transfer window, why am I seeing so many stories about Matt O’Riley leaving?
T
TOBAGO STREET
Because…. the rags and it is us. Nobody worth buying unless they wear the hoops.
He ain’t leaving. Not in January.
Meltdown malaise.
They are nuts
https://twitter.com/CelticEnded2iar/status/1741837595418427461?s=19
HH
Spidey
Start with …
Top of the league and we will take from there
Apologies… couldn’t be bothered reading the rest of your inane pish
Roll on St Mirren
And
Fcuk the Huns……………. 🍀
Spider 101 11.16
Brilliant detailed post .
TT
FITBA BET….
I had a nice New Year Bet come up last night…
Liverpool – 4 v Newcastle – 2…….Correct Score @ odds of 33/1.
Not too shabby.
LOL
HH
SPIDEY101 on 1ST JANUARY 2024 11:16 PM
Hat doffed. Such detail must have taken some time and effort.
Cheers and HH.
SETTING FREE THE BEARS FOR RES. 12 & OSCAR KNOX on 1ST JANUARY 2024 5:24 PM
Suoerbru Round 22 reminder
We have 6 fixtures tomorrow and the deadline is 3 pm, though Celtic kick off at 5 pm
It’s a good week to have a go at the 14.5 pt Weekly best total as there are 8 matches in this gameweek with 2 further Catch-up fixtures on hte 24th January to be added,
We have 14 votes cast on the charity donation in the banter section of QNQS and the deadline for this vote closing is 6pm on January 5th. Please vote if you haven’t already done so.
……………
That is so UNFAIR.
Other Punters on here now have the great opportunity to beat my ” 14.5 points Total” because it features 10 Games, and NOT the usual Six matches.
I demand answers, and I want to know ” Who are these People” ?
I demand a Stewards Inquiry.
Where is the Compliance Officer ?
Its an Injustice….so it is.
Feck the Lawyers..
My 7ft Minder will be in touch
LOL
HH
SETTING FREE THE BEARS FOR RES. 12 & OSCAR KNOX on 1ST JANUARY 2024 5:24 PM
Suoerbru Round 22 reminder
……………..
Please expect a CALTON STATEMENT on this matter…
Cheating of the highest order.
I shall not be moved.
HH
Spidey101,
Great analysis and insights. Very objective and learnings should be taken on board.
on Paul67 main article everything is about blindly pursuing the model. Others rightly talk about the flexibility needed. This is why if you have one tribe centred around nepotism you don’t have this alternative thinking required. This is Celtics greatest weakness and it needs to be rectified. Mark Lawwell must be removed from role due to a catalogue of failures.
Re Rodgers he done brilliant in putting them to the sword again ; he has also got under the skin of Clement who lost the plot and was staring to believe the media hype. When they come for him it will be messy.
HOWEVER rodgers need to be more demanding (preferably in private) about the type of player needed to supplement the player strategy. This analysis shows why.
A fantastic piece of work by Spidey101 whom I can imagine works for the club and has insights about a recruitment dept headed by a dud.
GFTB – how do you know it’s inane push if you didn’t read it? Top yes, but assuming they win the games in hand (and VAR will see to it they do) we’re only two points clear and they have won the League Cup and remain in Europe while we got papped out at the earliest opportunity. If you read it, my post explains the failings of recruitment (and touches on part of the reason for our poor return from the Academy) which has led to us regressing.
TinyTim, Greenpinata, and Lucky Cody. Thanks. No inside knowledge and I don’t work for the club – just a fan with too much time on my hands!
Good morning all. HH
SPIDEY101
Interesting read , my only feedback is that there is a danger of over analysis here , after all we are dealing with a bunch of young blokes moving around the world , some will adjust some won’t.
I don’t buy the argument that because a bunch of them don’t work out , heads should roll , seems to me any sensible process must allow for some failure.
Good thought provoking read
HH
Good Morning Fholks – Grand Day To Be A Tim…
SPIDEY101 @ 7:52 AM,
Your early post was great, a top drawer comment that has become sadly too rare now.
You appear far too sound, and have been around CQN too long to take GFtB’s comments to heart but you must understand, for everyone who comes on and appreciates the time, effort and insight that post obviously took, there are hundreds that read and appreciate it without commenting.
Unfortunately for the site GFtB’s post, takes little time, effort and no insight, it’s easier too mock than construct though.
We start the New Year with your great post, taken in a positive spirit, that has been the backbone of what’s good about CQN – so thanks.
We have football game today and we go away to a tricky opponent who will be only too willing to burst our bubble, total application needed today.
COYBIG
Hail Hail
Spidey
As Chairbhoy put it
All about opinions .. one man’s inane urine is another man’s “great post”
Am just wanting 3pts for us today
Hope you have a great 2024, am sure Brendan will make it a guid yin
A blog post doesnt have to meet the wordsmiths standards
That’s why we can all post what we want
Hope that’s detailed enough CB
3pts today is vital
100% behind Brendan 🍀
Good morning fellow Tim’s around the globe from a dreich matchday in the Garngad.
The game today will be back to St Midden sittingbwith 2 banks of 5 from 20 yards from their own goal.
This is where wche need the quality to break this type of football down.
We need players take opposition on and break into space etc.
3 – 1 to the tic.
Ps why is Hatate allowed to go anywhere if he is not fit enough for us.
Shouldn’t be allowed. That sounds like a carry on film phrase or something.
Ooooh Shouldn’t be allowed.
BRRB and anyone else if you fancy watching the game we will be in Howgait at 4.45ish…only thing is they still do not have a replacement. Yet for the big screen that t is broke. Arrrggghhh
Loads of other tvs though.
D. :)
Big Jimmy I had 4 – 2 as well a fiver on it at 20/1 boom.
D. :)
Sorry w e w ill be. In about 4pm for game.
D. :)
Morning all.
ERATIC on 1ST JANUARY 2024 7:25 PM
“What a difference a year makes….if someone came in with an offer of £20 mil for big Scales , I would be disappointed to see him go…….
But would we sell him for that !”
I think Celtic would sell him for half of that if we could replace him with McKenna (or a prospect) for less.
CELTIC MAC on 1ST JANUARY 2024 9:03 PM
“Was noted on here after the game but … the forward pass from Nawrocki to Matt was nothing short of exquisite. Brilliant all round move, with what even Phil Clemente described as a ‘World Class’ finish.”
I noted it myself at the game and on here after. At first I thought he was passing to Maeda but it was a fantastic ball. Both Lager and Rocky I think have been signed as ball playing centre backs. What a difference from Philips and his frequent attempts at Van Dyke passes which seemed to find touch more often than a team mate!
BURNLEY78 on 1ST JANUARY 2024 9:30 PM
“I see the BBC have already got their game at home to Kilmarnock as game of the day tomorrow.
Not even a mention of our visit to St Mirren in their preview of the games to come online.”
Not even a wee mention that they play before us so have the chance to cut our lead?! Not like the BBC to miss an opportunity to give them any reason for hope!
LUCKY CODY on 2ND JANUARY 2024 6:57 AM
“Spidey101,
Great analysis and insights. Very objective and learnings should be taken on board.
on Paul67 main article everything is about blindly pursuing the model.”
Does the model not include signing the Starfelt’s, Mooys and similar as/when they are available and affordable and suit our needs? I had always thought this (and bringing through any of our own where possible) were parts of it too. I (perhaps wrongly) didn’t read doubling down as only signing young players, just holding firm and not changing approach to experienced only / more experience.
Auldheid – thanks for the links; will have a wee read in my next zoom meeting :)
QB
Spidey
Do you have any thoughts where and against what kind of opposition the revamped and super coached 2nd string team, which you are suggesting, would play ? I don’t think it’s a bad idea to really invest there but there are some glass ceilings.
Personally my thoughts would be that it could only work as an iteration of a type of ‘City’ model and therefore based outside of our wee country where we have limited competition and scope for actual competitive football games for a development squad. If we were to have ownership links to a side in the English Div 1 or 2, or German 2 or even a Scandinavian team then it may make sense. The current set up is hampered hugely by Gretna or Berwick Rangers being the standard.
I would also challenge that age is the issue. Proper experience is the benchmark.
Whilst some of our players may have been older they have been picked up with little actual proper first team game experience. Eg Frimpong or Jota or others.
Though provoking comment though. Also not talking about duds in jobs just about strategy which is good.
Paul67,
Could I make 1 request for the new year? Can you do something to make it easier to receive CQN? I have been on here for about 16 or 17 years and it has never been so difficult.
Guys no revamping will get done whilst pistol pete is in the house.
Remember the more cash in bank the bigger the bonus he gets.
Simples.
D :)
Full team today, we have tried resting players at St Mirren a couple of times in recent years, and came a cropper, the guys can rest up for a few weeks after we get the points
Chairbhoy – you’re right I shouldn’t have snapped back. GFTB – apologies for doing so! 3 points is a must today!
EK Bhoy – you’re right that there is still the human element involved, especially for young lads travelling continents. So there will always be failures, it’s just about minimising the risk by ensuring we focus on those who are close to being first team ready. It’s not good business/strategy to bring in someone who simultaneously has to adapt to a new culture while being shell-shocked at the step up in standard/finding out they are miles off it. Not fair on the players either.
Quadbhoy- my reading of the article is that we’re all in on under-24s, which tallies with McGowan’s comments on our signing strategy (u-24, on less than £15k a week, etc). I may be wrong though, which would be welcome. We’ll find out this month I guess.
Burnley78 – given the lack of progress on getting a B Team in the SPFL (which would be the ideal if we could get that side into the Championship) I think you’re right that we’re looking at a multi-club model. Maybe something will come of the Admira link up, but we probably do need to own that team so we can work around the loan caps to make it work. Otherwise we need to be more brutal and accept we can only carry a handful of projects in the squad at any one time – for instance having a 4th choice CB, 6th choice CM midfielder, 3rd choice striker and a 5th choice winger – with the aim of them moving up the ranks in a year or two before we bring in the next project. And no time for blaming individuals at the moment – it doesn’t hugely matter what they do if the strategy is wrong.
Rooney sacked by Birmingham
Perhaps the BBC have the hun fame as MOTD because they could have a new world record for not conceding penalties 😉
Saw this statement from a post on videocelts, if true remarkable!
’63 leagues now use VAR and out of 950 teams to have played under it – only one have yet to concede a penalty under it’
Good morning all from Govanhill. Gerrintaethum Celtic!!!!
Celtic versus SMSM in 2024 is not a new phenomenon, and a war that rages on. Former Rainjurz News editor’s can only do so much in their efforts to sanitise new club Trump FC.
‘Caught on camera’ has a new meaning in the digital age, Celtic have a new ally, but with directors that are already at loggerheads with the rank and file of our own support, do they stay out of public glare, or is it stay out of our battles?
Rightly ‘concerned’ about the safety of our supporters only when playing a particular group, the club has reciprocated with zero away ticket allocation. When the safety concerns are breached by a player caught live on a massive digital platform, you would think there would be consequences?
Do unto others CSC
Spidey 10.16am
No apologies necessary … am just as guilty about “jumping in” your post actually made more sense when I read it today :-)
We might have different opinions but as you say 3pts today is the main thing 🍀