My friends in Celtic, a year ago I wrote, “Right now our chances of winning the league are probably 30% – held back by so many unknowns.” The club had gone through a traumatic year in which we lost the league for the first time in a decade. A new manager and chief executive were in place, our captain retired, while several of our most important players were angling for a move.
Under any normal circumstances, 30% would seem ambitious, circumstances were not normal, however, well not normal for the football industry, anyway. Despite their year of trauma, Celtic were and are still run on a sustainable model, uniquely so, among clubs competing for the Scottish Premiership title.
A year ago I also wrote, “We can tip the balance in the weeks ahead”, a period which saw Carter-Vickers, Hart and Jota arrive, signings that would prove pivotal in the season’s outcome. Celtic won the league because they had the sustainable structure enabling it to rebuild quickly. It is that sustainability that brought Postecoglou, Kyogo and the other transformational figures to Glasgow.
No football club has a God given right to win. They will certainly not win everything if they are competing against a club perpetually gambling with their own viability. We lost our way in season 2020-21 and despite everything that went right last season, the title race was close, too close for comfort.
Newco looked dead on their feet (or hunkers, in one case), after they lost 3-0 at Celtic Park in February. That night we reached the top of the table for the first time in the season and appeared unstoppable. None of us saw the resilience Newco had to not only hang in there in the league, but cobble together an impressive run to the Europa League Final, and a sobering extra-time win over Celtic in the Scottish Cup semi-final.
Despite the title going to Celtic, Newco are entitled to believe they finished the season the stronger; for many reasons, they will be confident for the season ahead.
It has been so long since we reached the Champions League group stage without the difficulties of the qualifying rounds, our biometric systems are probably missing a summer of anxiety. While everything was going well domestically last season, Europe was a blot on the copybook. We exited CL qualification cheaply (and before recruitment was effective), suffered a sobering home defeat to German opposition (cough), while finishing third in the Europa League group, before truly humbling home and away losses to Bodo/Glimt.
If you are confident that we are ready for a crack at the Champions League group stage, you are made of sterner stuff than me. Still, the golden goose resides on the Celtic Way. Income will be determined by several factors yet to be confirmed, including performance and if another club from Scotland reaches the group stage, but, including gate receipts, I estimate we will earn £40m from the Champions League this season.
The club’s commercial department continue to ‘knock it out the park’ with each new round of deals. Add in the Ange Homecoming Tour, and we know this season will produce Celtic’s highest ever income. Income determines long term success in football, it is the climate, whereas results are the weather.
In the same State of the Club article last year, I also wrote, “What happens in [Newco’s} qualification tie against Malmo and if they progress, in the subsequent play-off round, will go a long way to determine how competitive the league race is over the next decade. It is the sting in the tale of losing such a momentous title.”
You will probably not remember, so it is worth me going over the details of how that tie transpired. Malmo won the first leg 2-1. At halftime in the return at Ibrox, they were 1-0 down and had a man sent off. Despite this, Newco managed to grab defeat from the winner’s podium; they missed out on the Champions League and the income it assured.
Despite this, a new manager and a new approach, allowed them to flourish in the Europa League. As a consequence, the perceived value of their players increased exponentially. They sold their best player for £6m and their best prospect for £20m, money that will enable them to recruit better and be stronger next season.
That transfer income and the considerable money earned from Europe last season will make Newco less dependent on shareholder loans. It will allow the club to submit profitable accounts for the first time ever. Such is their structural cost overhang, though, it provides only temporary relief.
They also have another crack at Champions League qualification. If they get there, it is game on. They are a club that previously always gambled beyond the edge of profitability, I expect them to throw everything at this season, irrespective of the consequences, in the hope of winning the title and through this, reaching the Champions League group stage in 2023.
Celtic will not follow them off the cliff. We will continue to work on our own plans and in a sustainable manner. But as you and I know, when you compete against a gambler, anything can happen.
As things stand, I am confident for the season ahead. We retained all our important players, including those only loan, brought in a left back and a strong and experienced central mid. I hear very encouraging things about Moritz Jenz, who it is hoped will become a big player for the club.
Crucially, the absence of European qualifiers enabled the squad to undertake more strength and endurance training than they would be able to do if they had competitive games to play. Think back to all those tired players we watched last season. A plan to address this has been executed.
So far, I think we have improve more than Newco. Expectations of winning the title sit at 60%, which still leaves a black 40% waiting ominously.
I seldom look at the CQN reader numbers but at the end of the year I looked back and saw this enormous peak on 10 August, the highest number of 2021. Curious, I typed “Celtic 10 August 2021” into my search engine. Nothing. I varied the search for a few minutes before it dawned. That was the date Malmo won at Ibrox.
Some people will mock us for this, but you and I know better. Football in Glasgow is a zero-sum game. That Malmo win was hugely important in determining the outcome of the Scottish Premiership, season 2021-22. If you don’t realise this, you have not been paying attention.
If Newco had Champions League income while Celtic were limited to Europa League money, all the parameters change. This season’s qualification tournament will not be as critical, for Celtic, anyway, but it remains a key determinant in comparative competitiveness.
You are entitled to be proud at the way your club responded to the loss of our first title in a decade. We have players, a manager, and a commercial operation that we have confidence in. They cannot win everything and will make mistakes, but what an exciting time to be a Celtic supporter.
Take care and enjoy the season.
Paul67.
583 Comments- Pages:
- «
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4
- 5
- 6
- 7
- ...
- 16
- »
If Ajeti does move it will be very slowly.
Rest in Peace Big Yin.
Martin 42
So sorry to here of BigYin in Milan passing on.i recall a while back people looking to contact him.so saddened on hearing this.
Rip BigYin in Milan
HH
Many thanks for all Superbru entries and donations. A wee reminder that there are entries that have been paid for by donors who do not wish to participate so we can accommodate some others without cost.
We now have 56 members- let’s try to get above 60- would welcome a new entrant using the Gary Postecoglou entrant name from last year
SETTING FREE THE BEARS FOR RES. 12 & OSCAR KNOX on 29TH JULY 2022 1:37 PM
…………….
I will try the BANK TRANSFER, but failing that I am happy to meet you some point next week in City centre and Pay You the £30 Cash…
I will buy our LIQUID LUNCH !
HH Mate.
Sad news about BIGYININMILAN 🙏💚
Martin42
Very sorry to hear that about BigYin.
Starfelt and Jenz both took part in the team training today so injuries must be clearing up.
RIP BigYininMilan.
SFTB july 29 2022 @ 12.24.
Re Slatterys mounted fut.
My late father bought the record CELTIC CELTIC with the ‘b’ side SLATTERYS MOUNTED FUT.The players names were on the disc (1964) and the team were credited with the singing of the song[s] the exception being John Fallon,instead of TOHG,Frank Haffey sang along.
● On a sad note another poster takes leave.Candle shall be lit Our Lady’s altar Clonard monastery●
RIP BIG YIN IN MILAN.
FAO SFTB…
I am trying to do a BANK TRANSFER ONLINE….is the Walk with Shay” Account a Personal or Business Account ?
its the first question that my Bank is asking for Online .
Sorry for being a pest mate.
HH.
DENIABHOY
Good Starfelt is back training full on.maybe bench at best? Give the injury a wee bit more time.welsh and ccv to start,but will go wi the man
Absolutely shocked to hear of the passing of BIGYINMILAN
If you track back I requested many times to why there was no info
from anyone, especially as he was a notable professor of medicine
and especially during the Covid pandemic.
Professor Peter Boyle was one of the most avid Celtic fans I’ve ever
met here in Oz, his name is known throughout cancer hospitals,
epidemiology circles here in Oz and for the life of me I can’t understand
why after numerous emails to his French secretary or other close
contacts, no one could give me any info as to his disappearance from
the blog and visiting our CSC here in rebel town.
I’m sure PADDYMACOZ and the rest of our peninsula bhoys will be shocked
to hear of Peters passing.
RIP Professor Peter Boyle.
H.H. Mick
Sorry to hear that news Martin42
RIP BigYin in Milan
Weefra…welcome home auld yin…so sorry to read of the passing of yer long-suffering better half. Condolences to you and your family.
Rest in Peace BigYininMilan
YNWA
BelmontBrian…yesterday @ 8.42PM
Cannae argue with that line-up…we’d tear up the toon. Can’t help but notice you didn’t even make the bench – bit of an oversight 😂
H.H.
R.I.P BigYin
My condolences to his family and friends
THELURKINTIM
Thanks a lot buddy. By ghod we’ve chewed the fat a few times on here kiddo in days gone by. I reckon I started on this blog when the only way in to it was via Celtic News Now. Just shows you how long ago that was. HH
Big Jimmy
I will ask arc (Marc) who runs the account and get back to you. There is no rush for the payments. – so long as people are entered and made their predictions, we can collect the money at our leisure
WeefratheTim……was smiling when I saw yer moniker…..then reading of your loss I had to think of all oor braw posts that always included the Boss…the bonny lass fae the shores of the Ness..
she is at peace now my friend …you take care and stay busy ..
Braw
MM- You filled in a few gaps there for me,thanks
Excellent article.
We’ll done👏👏👏
Rest in Peace BYIM
BRAW
I almost cried reading that. Yes I remember it well plus the fact our coal fire. Now that is BRAW. HH
So sorry bhoys and ghirls that post of mine re- BIGYINMILAN was
filled with anger and disappointment instead of respect for a dearly
departed guest of our Celtic club here in Oz.
H.H. Mick.
I wis greeting typing it…
smiley twa auld dafties thing
god bless ye
Braw
SETTING FREE THE BEARS FOR RES. 12 & OSCAR KNOX on 29TH JULY 2022 2:34 PM
………………
I will look forward to you getting back to me asap.
HH.
MM- don’t beat yourself up mate,you were trying your best to get information…..
Mick ….just read Peter,s CV on Wiki…wow..
my condolences to those he loved …RIP
NB
Bada Bing
Peter was very close to the hierarchy at Celtic Park and I might
add this hallowed blog, why no one answered my plea for info
re- his health and disappearance baffles me.????
H.H. Mick
BIGYINMILAN RIP
NEUSTAD-BRAW
A beautiful human being, and sitting listening what he had achieved
for humanity was incredible, they had hospitals and all sorts of
medical centres named after him here in Oz.
And all he wanted to talk about was the Celtic.
I’m honoured to have been in a great man’s company
H.H. Mick
Condolences to the family and friends of BigYin in Milan .
R.I.P. Peter Boyle
Deepest sympathy to BigYininMilan’s family and to all those posting, who carry that awful burden of loss in their lives that these moments trigger.
You’ll never walk alone
HH
Absolutely bizarre. You talk about TRFC more than about Celtic in a supposed State of the Club article. Their finances and income are totally irrelevant to Celtic. If they do well- so what? If they go bust again- so what?
Comparisons with them have held Celtic back for years. The only relevant comparisons are clubs in Europe with a similar income to Celtic. We need to be outperforming THOSE clubs on and off the field. That is something we have failed to do for years.
Concentrate everything on the playing squad. Focus on the league and Europe. Nothing else matters, not trebles, league cups or Scottish Cups. Get a modern football structure in place so we are covered if any manager suddenly leaves.
Ignore TRFC SFA SPFL SMSM and all other white noise.
Paul67 et al…..
I haven’t been on here for many years, but decided to drop in and say Feasgar math to everyone.
It is nice to see that CQN is still on the go, and that some familiar monikers still reside here – yes, you, Martin42…:)
Paul67, as always, well, mostly, your article is on point. Yes, you spent time leaning over the neighbour’s fence. However, we only have one significant neighbour, and as you say, it is a zero-sum game. No matter your age or condition, I very much doubt that anyone of us will witness a 3rd team win the SPFL. Not in our collective lifetimes. So what happens over the fence DOES impact us.
In fact, last season was the first in a very long time where both neighbours had very good teams, and were engaged in a real competitive season. It took a bit to get used to.
This time last year, my hopes were:
Improvement in performances and results;
A solid 2nd place, leading to high expectations right about now.
We got all of that and more.
This season, I do have concerns. First, Celtic doesn’t have a great track record of building on success. And related to that…..I have concerns about our ability to defend, not only, but particularly in Europe. I don’t see much evidence that Ange intends to do much about that. Not in recruitment, nor in words or actions.
There was a myth circulating last season, that we were losing goals as a price to pay for our pressing and attacking approach. I went back and looked at all of the goals that we lost up until the winter break. It was stunning in the sense that we lost SO many goals from single touches in the box – suggesting that we were slow to read or react. The vast majority of these were headers, and a worrisome number came from dead balls – destroying the myth of a natural consequence of all out attack.
If Ange is true to his word that he isn’t that interested in the defensive side of things, the the UCL could be anywhere from difficult to horrendous.
That said, Ange proved a lot of people wrong last season. I’d be delighted to be wrong about our defence.
So, having bored you all for a few minutes, I’ll slip away.
All the best,
Ronnie
RIP BIGYINMILAN
Another sad loss.
🙏💚
https://mobile.twitter.com/NCCeltic/status/1552951901070757888/photo/1
WEERON
Great Post 👍
Superbru now up to 59 members and the name of Garry Postecoglou lives on in our competition
I will start issuing reminders to make your actual predictions later this evening