My friends in Celtic, a year ago I wrote, “Right now our chances of winning the league are probably 30% – held back by so many unknowns.” The club had gone through a traumatic year in which we lost the league for the first time in a decade. A new manager and chief executive were in place, our captain retired, while several of our most important players were angling for a move.
Under any normal circumstances, 30% would seem ambitious, circumstances were not normal, however, well not normal for the football industry, anyway. Despite their year of trauma, Celtic were and are still run on a sustainable model, uniquely so, among clubs competing for the Scottish Premiership title.
A year ago I also wrote, “We can tip the balance in the weeks ahead”, a period which saw Carter-Vickers, Hart and Jota arrive, signings that would prove pivotal in the season’s outcome. Celtic won the league because they had the sustainable structure enabling it to rebuild quickly. It is that sustainability that brought Postecoglou, Kyogo and the other transformational figures to Glasgow.
No football club has a God given right to win. They will certainly not win everything if they are competing against a club perpetually gambling with their own viability. We lost our way in season 2020-21 and despite everything that went right last season, the title race was close, too close for comfort.
Newco looked dead on their feet (or hunkers, in one case), after they lost 3-0 at Celtic Park in February. That night we reached the top of the table for the first time in the season and appeared unstoppable. None of us saw the resilience Newco had to not only hang in there in the league, but cobble together an impressive run to the Europa League Final, and a sobering extra-time win over Celtic in the Scottish Cup semi-final.
Despite the title going to Celtic, Newco are entitled to believe they finished the season the stronger; for many reasons, they will be confident for the season ahead.
It has been so long since we reached the Champions League group stage without the difficulties of the qualifying rounds, our biometric systems are probably missing a summer of anxiety. While everything was going well domestically last season, Europe was a blot on the copybook. We exited CL qualification cheaply (and before recruitment was effective), suffered a sobering home defeat to German opposition (cough), while finishing third in the Europa League group, before truly humbling home and away losses to Bodo/Glimt.
If you are confident that we are ready for a crack at the Champions League group stage, you are made of sterner stuff than me. Still, the golden goose resides on the Celtic Way. Income will be determined by several factors yet to be confirmed, including performance and if another club from Scotland reaches the group stage, but, including gate receipts, I estimate we will earn £40m from the Champions League this season.
The club’s commercial department continue to ‘knock it out the park’ with each new round of deals. Add in the Ange Homecoming Tour, and we know this season will produce Celtic’s highest ever income. Income determines long term success in football, it is the climate, whereas results are the weather.
In the same State of the Club article last year, I also wrote, “What happens in [Newco’s} qualification tie against Malmo and if they progress, in the subsequent play-off round, will go a long way to determine how competitive the league race is over the next decade. It is the sting in the tale of losing such a momentous title.”
You will probably not remember, so it is worth me going over the details of how that tie transpired. Malmo won the first leg 2-1. At halftime in the return at Ibrox, they were 1-0 down and had a man sent off. Despite this, Newco managed to grab defeat from the winner’s podium; they missed out on the Champions League and the income it assured.
Despite this, a new manager and a new approach, allowed them to flourish in the Europa League. As a consequence, the perceived value of their players increased exponentially. They sold their best player for £6m and their best prospect for £20m, money that will enable them to recruit better and be stronger next season.
That transfer income and the considerable money earned from Europe last season will make Newco less dependent on shareholder loans. It will allow the club to submit profitable accounts for the first time ever. Such is their structural cost overhang, though, it provides only temporary relief.
They also have another crack at Champions League qualification. If they get there, it is game on. They are a club that previously always gambled beyond the edge of profitability, I expect them to throw everything at this season, irrespective of the consequences, in the hope of winning the title and through this, reaching the Champions League group stage in 2023.
Celtic will not follow them off the cliff. We will continue to work on our own plans and in a sustainable manner. But as you and I know, when you compete against a gambler, anything can happen.
As things stand, I am confident for the season ahead. We retained all our important players, including those only loan, brought in a left back and a strong and experienced central mid. I hear very encouraging things about Moritz Jenz, who it is hoped will become a big player for the club.
Crucially, the absence of European qualifiers enabled the squad to undertake more strength and endurance training than they would be able to do if they had competitive games to play. Think back to all those tired players we watched last season. A plan to address this has been executed.
So far, I think we have improve more than Newco. Expectations of winning the title sit at 60%, which still leaves a black 40% waiting ominously.
I seldom look at the CQN reader numbers but at the end of the year I looked back and saw this enormous peak on 10 August, the highest number of 2021. Curious, I typed “Celtic 10 August 2021” into my search engine. Nothing. I varied the search for a few minutes before it dawned. That was the date Malmo won at Ibrox.
Some people will mock us for this, but you and I know better. Football in Glasgow is a zero-sum game. That Malmo win was hugely important in determining the outcome of the Scottish Premiership, season 2021-22. If you don’t realise this, you have not been paying attention.
If Newco had Champions League income while Celtic were limited to Europa League money, all the parameters change. This season’s qualification tournament will not be as critical, for Celtic, anyway, but it remains a key determinant in comparative competitiveness.
You are entitled to be proud at the way your club responded to the loss of our first title in a decade. We have players, a manager, and a commercial operation that we have confidence in. They cannot win everything and will make mistakes, but what an exciting time to be a Celtic supporter.
Take care and enjoy the season.
Paul67.
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Motherwell manager has been sacked. They can’t hack a strong Ireland.
BB
That’s harsh. Possibly budgeted on another round? Jeezo, Strachan and Lennon would have been sacked on that basis
Crazy decision
John Kennedy?
Just logged on and the read back hasn’t been the may west.
……………………………………………
WeeFra, so sad to hear that about your Mrs, may she RIP
…………………………………..
Tim H
Best of to your Mrs
……………………………………
Sad news about BigYin, RIP
…………………………………….
61 Superbru members so far- 10 or so still to make their predictions. I am out for a few hours- will update this evening
Tx Everyone
SONOFADERRYMAN on 29TH JULY 2022 5:31 PM
Terrific note fella and I’ve always been on the Mikey bus. I’ve probably been a bit guilty of being a bit clinical in my analysis of things lately but would love to see him back and being the player he threatens to break out and be.
A season of enjioying his football consistently in a different environment might be just what he needs.
HH
Paul67
I hope Ange has sorted the stamina problem we witnessed last year running out of steam at the 70 minute mark.
I hope he has improved our shooting from outside the box and found someone who can threaten the goal from freekicks.
Looking forward to the team a year on under Ange.
Hopefully the big CB makes a quick recovery.
Sonofaderryman 5.31pm
Well said … I wish young Mikey, and he is still young (think a couple of weeks between him & Jota) all the very best and a wee injury free run who knows where he will be this time next season (Tony Ralston this time last season) in this day n age social media gives everyone an opinion, good and mostly bad :-)
Weefra you keep the good times close to your heart, we conversed on SC and glad you are on these pages as well
As for the news on BigyininMilan .. sad news indeed
Celtic bring loads of us together from all walks of life whether online or real life .. we should enjoy every bit of Celtic
As for Belmont Brian’s dream (pub) 11 from the other night … an delighted I think I got the “7” shirt and big Jimmy got the “10”
Although if that team is looking for any goals the 7 & 10 would probably be in the bookies :-)
Roll on Sunday
SONOFADERRYMAN
Mikey has already lived the dream.
Hope he get the opportunity to continue and fulfil every ounce of talent he undoubtedly has.
WE’LL SEEcsc
GlassTwoThirdsFull on 29th July 2022 12:27pm
Otherwise clear off and let people with more ambition and vision take over.
—————-
Crikey – didn’t expect anything that quick!
Martin 42
Sad news of Big Yin in Milan, may he rest in peace.
Coneybhoy- check out Motherwell results from January…..it’s been in the post,and Sligo could have won by more,by far the better over the 2 legs
Media lawyer Jonathan Coad told the BBC the case had been “an absolute disaster” for Rebekah Vardy, and what made it “even more tragic is that four times Coleen really tried to settle this case”.
He said Mrs Vardy had suffered “terrible brand damage” during the cross-examination by Coleen Rooney’s lawyer, David Sherborne.
———–
“Terrible brand damage” Jonathan?
Not in my eyes.
Her “brand” is as appealing to me today as it was before.
We’re Not Half Of Anything.
BRRB
Fine moniker for the superbru comp there? :-) 👍
FittingCsc
HH
MELBOURNE MICK on 29TH JULY 2022 3:15 PM
NEUSTAD-BRAW
A beautiful human being, and sitting listening what he had achieved
for humanity was incredible, they had hospitals and all sorts of
medical centres named after him here in Oz.
And all he wanted to talk about was the Celtic.
MELBOURNE MICK on 29TH JULY 2022 3:15 PM
NEUSTAD-BRAW
A beautiful human being, and sitting listening what he had achieved
for humanity was incredible, they had hospitals and all sorts of
medical centres named after him here in Oz.
And all he wanted to talk about was the Celtic.
I’m honoured to have been in a great man’s company
H.H. Mick
I’m honoured to have been in a great man’s company
H.H. Mick
THEBHOYFROMU.N.C.L.E on 29TH JULY 2022 1:39 PM
If Ajeti does move it will be very slowly.
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:)))))))))))))))))
:))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
VG
HH.
BANKIEBHOY1 on 29TH JULY 2022 7:18 PM
Praise indeed………
HH
If Bankier leaves in the new year then we need to appoint someone of substance like Brian Quinn or John Reid. Now Desmond seems to make the big decisions and this won’t be any different.
Will he go for MON or Strachan.? Maybe someone from a business background like Stephen Glancey ex C&C or will he go for Peter Lawwell.
Senior politicians that are Celtic Fans are thin on the ground.
Comedians like Kevin Bridges or Frankie Boyle would be a laugh but maybe not serious enough.
Does anyone have an idea of likely candidates ?
SONOFADERRYMAN
Thank you for than lovely post. HH
TET
Thank you my friend. Goodness me, how long have we been conversing on here? I hope you are in the best of health my friend. HH
Anyone that is looking for another poster that hasnt posted for some time
Post and let me know, I will send them an email letting them know their voice has been missed and people are asking after them
SONOFADERRYMAN on 29TH JULY 2022 5:31 PM
a post from the heart…..thankyou
give Mikey my best…he will be back …an awfy awfy braw footballer…
Braw
My daughter is interested is a Glasgow Uni course – French and Geography. We’re going up for an open evening 31st Aug – any thoughts or tips anyone ? I don’t know much about that end of Glasgow.
Brawmeister —— Yup!
Sonofaderryman – Keep it Lit.
HH
CONEYBHOY on 29TH JULY 2022 4:47 PM
The finances are Ibrox are interesting. Loads of incoming trading surplus. Will RRM who took a bath on loans to equity swaps look to sell shares to get cash out and not look like bad guys? Would they be happy with a dividend?
Jeez Coneybhoy there is savant mathematicians that have chucked trying to figure out the share price🤣 then you come in and ask bout Dividend Policy,🤣🤣
From memory they went and recaliberated all the confetti debt,spread it out,aged it,over x yrs,I would guess they will pay the oldest/who ol giblet jaws is fighting with.always something wrong being done!!
You over Sunday?
HH
Celtic v Aberdeen
cinch Premiership
31/07/2022 4:30pm Celtic Park
Referee:Nick Walsh
AR1
Frank Connor
AR2
Craig Ferguson
Fourth Official
Barry Cook
Moderator1888
hi ..hope your doing brawily
what about a posters song…poem…joke night
bet there are some braw stories out there….
smiley something towards a braw new season of Ange thing
Braw
PictureThis Scotland
@74frankfurt
Leith Central Station, Edinburgh. Constructed in 1903 and open to regular passenger traffic until 1957. Mostly demolished in the Eighties, with only the main office complex and original clock tower surviving. The station inspired the title of Irvine Welsh’s Trainspotting novel.
https://twitter.com/74frankfurt/status/1551811473894248449/photo/1
NEUSTADT-BRAW on 29TH JULY 2022 7:43 PM · EDIT
Moderator1888
hi ..hope your doing brawily
what about a posters song…poem…joke night
bet there are some braw stories out there….
smiley something towards a braw new season of Ange thing
Braw
=============
Sounds good, if we can get enough people into it we can get it arranged fairly soon
Bankieshoy1…
pütting you up for the first turn on the Mod88 night thing
hahaha
Braw
Mod
could you reach out to the much missed posters, Ernie Lynch and MadMitch,
Let them know i was asking after them
Mod88…
oh that was sprite…soon as I work out how to send stuff from my didgegerät to my laptop
I will be in….
Braw
Braw-Bhoy 1
:))))))))))))))
EarlyToBedEarlyRise CSC
Mickey Johnston would be a cracking player if he was lucky enough to play under a Celtic manager with more than one string to his bow.
Asking MJ to do what Jota couldn’t do last season is what?
Dim?
Thick?
Blind?
Hasn’t got a Scooby (apart fae the Scottish midden)?
MJ can’t dribble past 2 to 3 players but is repeatedly asked to do so?
Why is that?
Play the ball over top – MJ runs onto it – GOOOAAALLLL!
Simple eh?
It is simple, Mr Stein said the game is simple, don’t ask players to do something they can’t!
Yet MJ is asked to do this every time?
Its the fault of Ange for not being able to properly utilise his staff!
Who scrutinizes Ange’s performance?
Bankier, PL, MN, DD?
Is the ship rudderless?
Is the Pope a Catholic?
Would MillWall’s fans have fallen to their knees and sucked up all the shaftings that Celtic fans have since, let’s say 2012?
I’ll give you a clue…..there wouldn’t be a shred of a boardroom still standing!
Some will say “But that’s Hunnish hooliganism!”
Others would say “Did you see the huns supporters getting ripped a new one since 2012?”
Naw, the huns supporters saw their club walking away from the biggest sporting crime ever committed, and the Same Club Lie was rubber stamped when daft Timmy paid £49 for tickets that expressed Timdoms agreement that the Old Firm was back, coz daft Timmy souled out for £49!
Rebels my arse!
Thing is, if the shoe was on the other foot, and Celtic, SFA, etc had just cheated Rangers out of 20+ trophies, and Celtic went into liquidation and were pretending to be the same club, do you the bitter hun support would’ve fallen for the £49 Old Firm ticket trick?
If they did you’d all be reading Phil’s book about it.
lol
MODERATOR1888 on 29TH JULY 2022 7:34 PM
Anyone that is looking for another poster that hasnt posted for some time
Post and let me know, I will send them an email letting them know their voice has been missed and people are asking after them
——————
I miss big AN TEARMANN please post him .:O) hh
Mornington Ride as Sandman rings the bell.
Evening all.
BIGYININMILAN,
Rest In Peace.
WEEFRA,
condolences, may your wife Rest In Peace.
TLT
Regarding last nights bit of fun, I intentionally left out my selection and I am concentrating on being Pub Captain. :)
Team Captain, there is an obvious choice of S(Team)ing Captain, the one and only BRRB, the best organiser in the business.
‘We Never Stop’
Whatever happened to that “Las Vegas”…(no laffin’)….. Long Copy nugget…..had a “tale” waggin’ dug?