A CQN’er prepared this forensic analysis of the relative poverty of Newco (formally named for analysis) compared to Celtic. It covers where they currently are and, more importantly, brings into sharp focus their financial projections for next season.
A storm is coming.
It’s International week, so it seems like a good time to look forward. Whilst most fans will be focusing on the matches remaining between now and the end of May, Managers and Football boards have to look further ahead. Budgets are being planned, appointments being considered and money, as always , is foremost in the thoughts of Directors and Managers.
Money, if you have it , can solve short term challenges, set in place long term strategy and is a mechanism to energise the fanbase. When you don’t have money, the problems and challenges are of a completely different nature. Celtic have money, a lot of money.
The cash balance on 31 December 2018 was £44m. Of course, some of that money has to be spent on wages and suppliers before the year-end. However, Celtic will also receive stage payments on Dembele sale circa €7m before 30 June (it’s common for large fees to be spread over 2 years), management team contract buyout of £9m, SPFL final distribution for 2018-19 season £2.2m, Valencia gate receipts and Hospitality £2.2m, and close to another £2m in match day ticket sales for the 11 SPFL home games taking place since 1 January.
None of this cash was shown in the Interim accounts. Payments will be received for players sold as well as payments made for players already purchased. The Year End cash balance will be a record high beating last year’s figure of £40m.
Everyone will have an opinion of where and how much we should invest, and that will be the subject of another article nearer the season’s end.
The challenges across the City are of a completely different nature. As always the demands there aren’t supported by financial reality, and having gone all in on Caixinha and Gerrard, a new and more challenging reality is looming.
Rangers posted an operating profit of £3.8 Million in the 6 months to 31 December 2018. The Rangers Chairman in his financial review that accompanied the interim accounts stated, “the Club is forecasting to be close to break-even for EBITDA for the year”.
I’m sure that was designed to provide comfort to shareholders and fans alike, however some context is required.
In the full year to 30 June 2018, Rangers produced an EBITDA of a loss of £4.18m. I guess that’s close to break even in some eyes. In the full year to 30 June 2017, Rangers produced an EBITDA loss of £105k. There is no question that is close to break even.
The problem though is that EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) is only part of the picture. The more relevant numbers relate to Operating Profit. That and Cash Flow tell a more complete picture on financial health.
From a 2018 EBITDA loss of £4.18 Million, Rangers produced an operating loss of £13.16m and from a virtual break-even 2017 EBITDA, Rangers produced an operating loss of £6.3m. The 2019 Operating result will be another significant loss.
REVENUES
· Rangers had Revenue of £35m in the first half of the current financial year
· Much of that Revenue will not recur in the second half of the year
· There were 7 home games in the Europa League that will have generated close to £9.6m in gate money
· Rangers earned £4.4m in Uefa prize money in the first half , nothing in the second half
· Rangers will play 3 less home SPFL games in the second half resulting in a £3.1m reduction in gate revenue, as season ticket money is allocated to each individual game
· With 10 less home games in the second half , Hospitality and Match day revenues such as parking, catering and programmes, will be down by possibly £3.3 Million
· Other less significant revenues will reduce in line with less games played at home in the second half
· It’s estimated Rangers will have revenues of close to £14.9m for the second half which is 12% growth on the second half of the financial year to 30 June 2018
EXPENSES
· Rangers won’t have the cost of travel and accommodation for European away games. This should deliver a saving of around £1.5 Million
· There are 10 less home games, which will deliver savings on part time staff, security, Police and utility costs. Should save around £400k
· Pena is now gone. It’s unknown if he was paid off or fired without any contractual settlement. It’s anywhere between a £340k saving or if paid in full (unlikely) an extra expense of £2m. Assumption is he got nothing, so a saving achieved
· Defoe and Davis won’t be cheap, and even Kamara will add a significant amount compared to the first half. Estimate an increase of £1.1m in player wages for these 3 for 6 months
· The first team squad and the management team will have earned bonuses for Europa League Group entry. That won’t recur in the second half . Estimated at £1.5m
· Nothing much happened in terms of players being bought, only Kamara for a small fee. Amortisation charge should be similar to the first half
· All in all, expenses will have reduced by around £2.65m to £26.4m for the second half, making a full year total of £55.5m
The second half of the Year will deliver a large loss of over £14.5m, unless significant player sales are undertaken in June, making an annual operating loss in excess of £11m.
“Be moderate in prosperity, prudent in adversity”, Periander
Nobody could argue against the reality that Rangers have had a mountain of adversity to deal with since 2012. Equally, nobody is ever going to claim they have been prudent. They have borrowed money from the likes of Mike Ashley, raised significant sums in multiple share issues organised by
Charles Green and Dave King, been loaned large interest free sums by shareholders and borrowed at ferocious rates from Close Bros.
What they have never done is provide funding through operational profitability. They are now on their fifth manager since 2012 with none of the major trophies available in Scotland to show for all of the debt and losses incurred. They have only managed to reach one Cup Final in 21 attempts, and even then lost memorably to a Hibernian team inspired by individuals with strong Celtic connections.
The question for Rangers now is what appetite do the shareholders have for risk? There is very little opportunity to grow revenues. Ibrox is full for every game, season books are maxed out. It would take Champions League Group revenue to be a game changer. Celtic are 1/100 to win this year’s SPFL. Rangers are 25/1.
It’s highly unlikely Rangers will even have an opportunity to qualify for the Champions League Group stages before season 2020-21. Even that remains a long shot. In the meantime, the Rangers board have to decide how much appetite they have for risk.
This season is likely, as shown, to deliver an operating loss of £11.2m, which will be reduced by the £2.8m already banked as profit on the sales of Windass and John. Give Gerrard the same budget for 2019-20 and if he delivers the same result, then another £11m operating loss will be the outcome.
Selling Morelos for £20m is the stuff of fantasy . His record pales next to Dembele’s . In fact his record isn’t as good as Leigh Griffiths and we weren’t fending off bids for even 30% of what it’s claimed Morleos will be sold for. Fail to qualify for the Europa League Group Stages and the operating loss will be rocketing towards £22 Million. Who is going to cover that? Will the shareholders continue to fund ever increasing losses for no silverware, or will they prudently use whatever they raise in asset sales to fund some of the losses, and take a long term view by living within their means.. History would suggest they will roll the dice yet again.
As noted earlier, Celtic have very substantial cash reserves. Rangers do not. They effectively have no cash. They exist on Close Bros debt and shareholder loans once the Season Book money runs out, which with the significantly increased budget given to Gerrard, happens earlier than ever and without Europa League Group Revenue, could happen well before the next winter break.
Gerrard improved the European record significantly; he was aided though by as soft a draw in the qualifiers as was possible. There is a strong chance of much better opposition next season.
The Rangers Directors have provided the funds to cover shortfalls up to this point. They are now facing significant challenges. They have seen Gerrard in action for a year. His League and Cup record is no better than Pedro’s. The money from shareholders has all been spent. The Close Bros money will be gone in a few weeks and will then have to be repaid.
Celtic will rebuild in the summer. No guarantees it will be successful, but it will be funded by our own resources and financial reserves. Rangers have no resources of their own and absolutely no financial reserves. At some point those lending money and buying shares will realise this isn’t a calculated risk, it is extreme rashness.
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Thanks for the messages bhoys.
2 increases on season tickets after 2 record breaking seasons is blatant profiteering
Oglach,
Respect for being a dude that calls a spade a spade.
If there was a new vote, I’m pretty certain the gap would be wider.
I’m a racist, not on your nellie!!
Celtic are on the cusp of even more MONUMENTAL achievements despite Everything that is put against us.
Celtic, CELTIC
Magical Celtic.
Best of Bada.
HH
…………………………………..
Oglach.
How come is undemocratic to let the people have another vote when the government reckon it’s democratic have had two so far to try and get the result the want ?
HH
!!Bada Bing!! on 22nd March 2019 7:25 pm
2 increases on season tickets after 2 record breaking seasons is blatant profiteering
……………………….
That is supply and demand. I can’t say I’m happy aboot it, first year I will be paying 2 full price Adult tickets.
Worth it howevaaaaah.
The club from Ibrox know that the SFA etc will will do their utmost to never allow them to die again. That’s why we should keep on about their financial shennanigans.
bada bing
let me know how the op. went, i think i need one but the doc doesnt seem to keen.
Apology for the split infinitive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IL2XwSkFJQ
smiley worth a watch…but sad it is …and the normal suspects will pay the price thing
Saor Alba
Braw
oh few swearies for those who are of an indifferent disposition
!!BADA BING!! on 22ND MARCH 2019 7:25 PM
2 increases on season tickets after 2 record breaking seasons is blatant profiteering
—
record breaking executive bonus and heated driveways dont pay for themselves.
Tim H- started in 2009,you have a sinus at the top of your skull,blocked, headaches off the scale, CT scans,MRI scans,didn’t want to operate at the time,a morphine drip dispersed the mucas but never properly flushed out. Came back last April, operation this morning, will update on recuperation mate.PS Billions was exceptional again. HH
SS- No need for it mate,the downsizing started a couple of weeks ago, as far as i can see.HH
A Treble Treble is unprecedented (surely).
Njoi For Petes sake.
Noone knows anything, the Darksiders think by studying the Word they can change things. LMFAO.
The Almighty is in control. Prophecy – Magical that it comes Alive after it happens.
Wee Jinky the Greatest ever Celt.
67
PETEC on 22ND MARCH 2019 7:02 PM
St Stivs,
After being discarded when my apprenticeship was over (apparently it was the done thing), my first job was at the HCI hospital, Drake and Skull Madchester were the contractors.
Seemed to be very Fife based howevaaaaaah. So many Great Tims from there.
I spent so many weeks/months in ICU’s!!!!
———————-
I quite like the building, it reminds me of polish churches, and from our side of the clyde the green roofs allways looks good,
good job petec
!!BADA BING!! on 22ND MARCH 2019 7:52 PM
SS- No need for it mate,the downsizing started a couple of weeks ago, as far as i can see.HH
——–
i agree, its profiteering.
the plc is cash rich. whats that the leader says £40m in the bank, ffs use it somehow.
they dont need cherries of top.
give something back by way of price reductions, feed the faithful.
instead , if its true there is a waiting list of many thousands, then supply/demand allows to charge anything really.
but its not necessary.
more than a club,
Guess that increase in prices each season is normal for most clubs.
What happened to the Rainjurz debenture / bond / seat for life / season ticket money?
NewZombiesSittingInThoseSeats CSC
Bada Bing
Good luck with your procedure.
Re ST prices. £44m in the bank and the £9m for Rodgers. I would have liked to have seen a freeze or below inflation increase but I suspect the powers that be are banking on folk wanting to be there for 10 in a row. Mines up £19, not a big deal in grand scheme but if a family of 3/4 that’s obviously more.
!!Bada Bing!! on 22nd March 2019 7:50 pm
Tim H- started in 2009,you have a sinus at the top of your skull,blocked, headaches off the scale, CT scans,MRI scans,didn’t want to operate at the time,a morphine drip dispersed the mucas but never properly flushed out. Came back last April, operation this morning, will update on recuperation mate.PS Billions was exceptional again. HH
………………………………………………….
The very best wishes Big chap.
A wee tip – stop drinking any diet stuff (if you are doing that to excess) as Aidans Mum was drinking that heavily and she had terrible headaches.
Can I just say that it is Brilliant that the Celtic team isnae being leaked anymore – Everyone knows you were just passing on the info that Everyone wanted to Know.
Again – the very Best Wishes.
Friday afternoon music …. how about a track from Jens lekman … the best swedish export since Henirk Larsson … except maybe for Malik Akerman …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFpWibrRYZw
BOURNESOUPRECIPE on 22ND MARCH 2019 8:07 PM
What happened to the Rainjurz debenture / bond / seat for life / season ticket money?
NewZombiesSittingInThoseSeats CSC.
I posted a few weeks ago, kid and granda go to ibrox, guy says to kid come and see where your great granda billy had his own seat, they trudge up the stairs, row 16, seat 90, here mate i thats my dads seat,
eh ah dont think so mate, i dont see his name on it.
mugs forever
or for something a bit more upbeat … I don know what love is… but I know what it isn’t
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQErekXV9Qc
The rate of inflation for 2019 is 1.8% but the rate of inflation for 10 in a row seems to be off the radar.
BOURNE,
They spent it within minutes to keep the lights on
SAINT STIVS
Indeed
– same club same seats myth?
1. THE EXILED TIM on 22ND MARCH 2019 7:30 PM
Oglach.
How come is undemocratic to let the people have another vote when the government reckon it’s democratic have had two so far to try and get the result the want ?
==
Therein lays the issue. Our elected representatives voting against the wishes of the electorate. Labour ,DUP etc. The majority of those entitled to vote in a wholly democratic nationwide election (assuming the UK is a nation) voted to leave the EU. It is somewhat arrogant to assume/ state that over 17 million people were fooled / lied to by the Brexiteers and that the dumb plebs never fully understood the consequences of leaving the EU and only those elected to Westminster are smart enough to be able to decide on the conditions when and if the UK leaves . That was never the question asked to the UK electorate- should we stay or go was the question. They voted leave.
Costly
In the Future when all is well
Ron
They did indeed, along with the great crossbar challenge money.
And we kept our floodlights on, to ‘ guide the Luftwaffe towards Clydebank ‘ ?
A potential Treble Treble – please for petes sake Njoi.
When does the music start?
It has started – dooh :-)
The ball never gets tired.
The Almighty is presenting us all individually with so many choices. We are Blessed because of the Belief and Hard Yards done by those before us.
That Bad Entity is only gonnae get stronger.
With today’s blog I would say we will be looking to downsize ,It seems to me as if we are being primed for a sevco 2012 admin event ,GASL has went all in on slippy G and it looks like a busted flush
The question that we should be asking is why are we now seemingly stockpiling cash ,are we positioning ourselves financially to take advantage of any new European set up (the disco lights were not for midweek ties against dundee and such likes ) I would guess the board would know more than most as to the football landscape in the next 5 yrs or so .
IMO the board went along with the BIG LIE as a means to an end and we will see that end within the next 5 yrs .We may not like what they did but if it turns out that we are in a football set up that the SFA and the corrupt cabal have no influence in then I for one will understand the reason why .
It could take us decades to erase the corruption ,so why not leave them behind
What if our board knows that the way sevco 2012 are being run is only going to end in trouble and are trying to limit the effect of the sh**storm on our club ,Could we blame the board for that .
If we were reporting losses of between 7 and 14m each season our whole team would be up for sale and not one single window would pass without players going out .So why would it be different for any SPFL club .
What is going on over at Ibrokes in 2018 is no different monetary wise to what was going on in minties reign and look how that ended .
The question is
At this moment in time what situation would we like to be in ,there’s or ours
HH
BOURNE,
That would be the first floodlights installed at Celtic Park in the late 50’s/ early 60’s when the Luftwaffe were everywhere.
badabing
not anywhere as bad as you, blocked nostril for about two years now, have been using a spray but that is not helping anymore. will just live with it.will be a bit better once we get the heat shut off.
all the best with the op.
billions i will be watching down the road, my wife is to invested in donovan just now.
about 5 epsd. left in season 5 then on to 6 which i have alredy watched but she has yet to see, no hardship watching again, great show.
looking through so pics today and came accross one of john thompson.
picture on front turn over and its a postcard!! any old bhoys remember.( i am up there but dont remember.)