Newco FFP, it’s about “fair play” Uefa


A quick summary of Uefa’s Financial Fair Play regulations:

Under normal circumstances, Financial Fair Play (FFP) requires clubs to run at a financial break-even, with certain allowances and an acceptable deviation, over a three year period.  Money spent on youth or women’s’ football, as well as depreciation (which includes money spent on stadiums), are excluded from this responsibility.  A club, therefore, that makes a €10m annual loss while spending €11m on youth football, women’s football and depreciation, will have an FFP surplus of €1m.

The acceptable deviation is a €5m cumulative loss over three years.  However, if a club supplements its loss by “contributions from equity participants”, they are permitted to run an aggregate loss over the three years of €30m.

Due to the extraordinary nature of last years’ finances across football, the current monitoring period covers the last four years.  Clubs are also allowed to add back any lost revenue due to shutdown, playing behind closed doors, not playing at all, or for closed retail facilities.

See the graph below detailing a summary of Newco’s finances for the last four published accounts (year ending 30 June 2018 – year ending 30 June 2021).  Items on yellow are my estimates.  The Youth/Women add back figure is based on peer data from elsewhere and is generous to Newco.  The Shutdown add back is also based on peer data, adjusted for the number of cup games, absence of a refund programme and is also generous to Newco.

I estimate the Newco FFP loss at £40.235m.  At a (generous) £/€ conversion rate of €1.14/£ this gives an FFP loss of €45.868m, €15.858m over Uefa’s acceptable deviation.

So where is all this right now?  Clubs submit accounts to Uefa along with their claims for spend on depreciation, youth and women’s football, and for this year, a Shutdown add back.  Newco do not specify these add backs in their accounts, but page 11 of their Annual Report states, “Initial estimates are that the adverse effect on revenues was over £20m”.

“Initial estimates” are doing a lot of heavy lifting here.  You can be sure that where I estimates last year’s hit at £10m, Newco’s signal of “over £20m” was consistent the figure they submitted to Uefa.  My expectation is that whatever they have claimed, it will be high enough to get them through the first pass.

Newco have run an operating loss every year they have been in business.  Persistent loss makers who compete in European football have more onerous FFP reporting responsibilities, I expect Newco to be under this scrutiny.  Claims made for add backs can and should be scrutinised by Uefa, who are well versed on how clubs that work at the margins operate.

What is going to happen?  Under normal circumstances, Uefa would act with instructions to reduce spending, or face severe action.  These are not normal times, though.  There is red ink all over European club accounts, many are unable to raise equity capital, even where permitted under FFP.

Uefa’s special provisions for this year are published and make no indication that we are in a free for all.  Clubs have experienced an income shock, some are unable to raise finance as a consequence, but there is no cover for persistent FFP deviants.  For the sake of “fair play”, we have to hope they apply the rules.  Your guess is as good as mine on what will happen, though.

What does all this mean long-term?  Newco cannot run at a loss of the scale they do under normal circumstances.  They either have to sell for the kind of money Celtic did this year and do so regularly, or reduce spending on wages (their only significant expenditure, as transfer spend is always low).  The £4.5m for Gerrard & Co. will only scratch the surface, they could do with selling another three management teams before June next year.

Champions League football next season is all.  It is literally everything, and you thought last season’s title was important.  The additional income would not resolve Newco’s structural problems, but it would give them a short-term stay of execution while they try to transition to a sustainable model.  Without it, the prognosis is dire, whether this season is a Uefa free for all or not.

………and remember, irrespective of FFP, they still need to fund those losses.  None of this is about defending corner kicks or putting the ball in the net, but appropriate financial governance wins more trophies than any tactical formation.

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  1. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    I am loving the Ange revolution and am seriously embracing the energy and positivity it has generated.



    He has also, very quickly, given us back a level of esteem after a catastrophic last season.



    But I still think this title race could be very tight.



    Using last 6 form guide as an indicator …



    (realistically this is too small a base but it’ll do for the illustration)



    – we are hitting 2.67 ppg


    – Sevco doing 2.33



    Extrapolate that out to the end of the season and we win by just over 4 points.



    It’s that tight.



    After a slow start to the season results wise, our last six games have been very good.



    16 from 18.



    A missed penalty away from 18 from 18.



    Will we improve?



    If so, will that improvement sustain a 2.67 ?



    If it did we would reach c.93 points.



    Personally I’d bite your hand off if you gauranteed 92 points right now.



    Them? Despite problems 2.33 (4 wins, 2 draws) is creditable fair.



    I suspect they’ll go on a mini-run at some point (e.g. win 5 in a row) but can they sustain that?



    Time will tell.



    I’ve opined here before that Sevco’s zenith is behind them.



    Doesn’t mean though they can’t haul ass for one more push.



    So no complacency please board. Arm Ange for the battle.



    Hail hail



    Keep The Faith



    We’re Not Half of Anything






    We share a city AND NOTHING ELSE.




    We’ve won 8 drawn 1 out of our last 9



    They’ve won 5 drawn 2 lost 2



    They’ve conceded 12, we’ve conceded 6



    They’ve just got gubbed in a semi final, we won against the holders. Their players are openly talking about a problem with motivation this season, they have players who want away, aren’t signing contracts and have no money to strengthen in January.



    We’re going to buy in January



    Heavy pressure on GVB to hit the ground running.

  3. A guy who is under the radar a wee bit for me, is Cameron Carter- Vickers,hardly put a foot wrong, very good positional sense,decent pace,and not scared to get in about it,and use his power.Hope we can get him signed long term

  4. SAINT STIVS, if you are around. You have shown a wee interest in the past in the visible night objects in the sky.



    At the moment, looking from west to just east of south, you can see an unusual alignment of Venus, Saturn and Jupiter, rising from just above the horizon (Venus) to fairly high (Jupiter).



    Obviously all interested others are allowed to look up and around as well!

  5. JIMDOM @ 2:26




    Of course the jist of what you say is true – the Ibrox train will not hit the UEFA buffers this season. The only way to see significant change in our/their fortunes this season is for us to do it on the park.



    Those overseeing the pumping of money into the Ibrox project will have identified many caveats to cover their financial dealings over the last few years, Covid being one.



    Paul calculations are informative and may, or, may not be accurate. If Paul can put this together, with some guesswork, then so to will have the Ibrox hierarchy, with the actual figures. To suggest that they are running blind into a brick wall is naivety on stilts. The ‘Cinch’ stand-off illustrates how determined they are to get their own way – we underestimate them at our peril. Let’s not repeat the debacle of last season.

  6. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    CELTIC40ME @ 4:34 PM.



    Really good points made.



    Your different data tells a different story.


    (All good).



    And the structural and psychological factors you’ve introduced are, IMHO, totally valid.



    We’re probably closer on this than our posts suggest?



    And, I’d speculate, close to most Celtic fans thoughts on this.



    The emotionally driven Celtic fan (short for fanatic) in all of us might think ….



    “Keep up the recent good work. Buy well in January and we’ve got this title in the bag”



    The analyst, statistician, planner, strategist, risk manager, logistician, (pessimist?), in us all might simultaneously think



    “Hang on. The data tells us there is plenty of work to do and there will be bumps along the way”



    Roses are Red


    Violets are Blue


    I’m a schizophrenic


    …. And so am I




  7. !!Bada Bing!!



    Carter Vickers has put in excellent performances and he is our Numero Uno CH for me. He’s just settling in like so many players but I’ve been very impressed by him in particular as our defence was getting so much stick early doors.



    I like his attitude and like you, I hope he is signed permanently. Another excellent addition this Season.

  8. somebody on here must have a broken calculator…


    There’s just something about them that doesn’t add up.






    that is just spooky bud. are you a mind reader.



    driving home from braehead just at the sun went down, i could see these 3 objects in the sky, cracker view driving over dargavel bridge at bishopton which looks directly south , and i thought to myself need to check that out on the timterweb, and that is why i just logged on.



    quite interesting, ta.

  10. Chris Sutton barred by Rangers again as BT Sport cover Gio van Bronckhorst’s first game from empty PARKHEAD

  11. Did anyone ever get figures on how much Celtic and Sevco paid back respectively for the season early shut down in 2020?



    PS try to avoid Covid like the plague folks (see what i did there?), I’m in day 11 of being Aylesbury Ducked with it and still not sure I can work tomorrow

  12. Hi lhads and lhassies, re saint stivs post, Do the huns still get a broadcasting fee from bt sport even if the game is technically shown from parkhead? Surely if the game is broadcast from parkhead and the hun have banned a member of the team ie sutton, they should forfeit the bt fee! If not should celtic not tell them to ‘go away’ . Genuinely not sure of contractual situation.


    Hail hail

  13. I’d love to know where Paul67 gets the £4.5m compo figure from… The figure for Skippy and pals was £3m- LESS £200k for his agent Struan Marshall and that comes from as near the horse’s mouth as any of us will get.




    If he had bolted in June this year then £4.5m would be about right.

  14. Emeraldbee/St Stivs


    I can see Venus just now from my kitchen window , it was a lot brighter last Sunday night

  15. PARK ROAD 67 on 24TH NOVEMBER 2021 7:39 PM


    Emeraldbee/St Stivs





    I can see Venus just now from my kitchen window , it was a lot brighter last Sunday night






    did you have the big light on ?




  16. danny o'velinski on



    The cowards who’ve collectively financially enshrined the vultures who’re about to drop Higgins on top of them!


    Sing about the IRA, then surrender you’re finances to Irish Tory PLC, Irish free state snakes.


    30% of the shares = 100% of the power, and these IRA singers just fall into line,


    for these capitalist vultures, year in, year out!


    It doesn’t matter how many supporters clubs, blogs, podcasts, dog & pony shows, all sign a letter, that probably won’t even be opened before it hits the shredder, it doesn’t matter!


    The letter means hee haw because you’re ALL guilty !!!


    Last season the board, ensured the entire club would collectively “blow” 10 in a row!


    And what did all of these named groups on the letter do?


    Fk all !!!


    That’s what you did.


    You all rallied round the PLC’s keep the oldfirm alive flag, as 10 was blown to give the huns £40 million.


    Big Shane Duffy “….and all of the cazy goings on behind the scene’s”


    And know what else……?


    The huns haven’t got their hands on the £40 million yet, because they were supposed to qualify for this seasons CL groups, and they failed.


    So if the huns fail, then Celtic PLC will punish Celtic fans for it.


    So in PLC land, that means that this present season will have to sacrificed as well, to keep the oldfirm vibrant, and alive.


    That 53k don’t realise this, then the 53k are nothing more than a fking VIRUS!!!


    That’s right!


    If 53k robots are going to be constantly buffering and not connecting too good, then they must be a virus!




    The PLC are not at fault in ANY way at all here! Not in the slightest!


    If a PLC can “conjure” up a customer base and f them over at will, without challenge, then that’s a fantastic PLC!!!


    The PLC can’t be faulted if its customer base are fkn humanoids. Can it?


    A PLC with a top figurehead with a 30% of shares = 100% of control set up, then that PLC are masters of their craft!


    Surely you can see that?


    If not, then your no more good to Timdom, than a fkn virus!


    And so it has proved!


    And so it will continue to prove!


    Puffing you’re chest’s out and bragging about giving 100% support to probably the biggest bunch of frauds that any of us have ever seen, was / is a red rag to you’re imperial, Irish free state owners.


    If they have 30% of shares = 100% of power of, Celtic fc, then they own the 53k financiers, lock, stock, and biscuit tin.


    The club is infected by a 53k strong virus.


    Each and every one one of the 53k should have their tickets removed permanently, and these 53k weak people, who collectively constitute the malware which is subjecting the institution of Celtic fc, to this unbelievable treachery, were the club is so vulnerable to attack, that all it would take for Celtic fc to be closed down for the disgusting “dodged” abuse scandal, would be for one of wee Nora’s photos to appear, and the club being subject to a psyop, and closed down and used as a giant squirrel story.


    And the PLC would play along, whilst some of the 53k would stand in the car park holding up bits of cardboard, pretending to be rebels.


    Rangers fc died in 2012 √


    Celtic fc died in 1994 √


    Tory Celtic, supported by a 53k malware virus.


    Who’s fault is that?

  17. BelmontBrian


    Evening friends, I’m pretty sure most of you will have seen this footage.


    However it’s, I believe, it’s always worth another watch.


    I’m not in any trying compare Mr Stein and Mr Postecoglou but at times I can’t help to feel a similarity. I love the way both take no crap for the SMSM.



    Anyway, here’s the gaffer Mr Stein.






  18. Watching PSG,they must be the worst team ever for playing the ball out from the back.80% of the time,lucky if it gets 30 yards from their goal.Messji,Neymar,M,Bappe,totally starved of any service,yet they persist.Keeper is hopeless with the ball at his feet.Amazing.


    If you worry about us,have a look at them.

  19. prestonpans bhoys on

    TURKEYBHOY on 24TH NOVEMBER 2021 9:03 PM



    Agree with you there, wonder why they keep persevering, pish at it

  20. ‘Playing out from the back’ – it’s just coaches copying each other(the King’s new clothes syndrome) – that much is transparent & naff! It doesn’t suit some teams – it certainly doesn’t suit us. The biggest question of all is – why must it happen every single time? Teams don’t take the same corner every time, or, the same free-kick – or, the same throw-in, or the same penalty, why? – because the opposition(keeper) would suss & set up against it….but time after time passing for passing sake happens in and around the area where a team is most vulnerable… utter madness.



    I am not advocating going route-one every time, we couldn’t anyway as we have no big challenging frontmen – but for God’s sake mix it up and at least get the other team guessing.



    One last point – why don’t the big ‘fashionable’ teams use a long-throw player – when launched into a crowded box it is a big weapon and can panic the ten behind the ball mob (e.g. Livingston & St Johnstone etc). The reason most don’t use it is just snobbery. Some coaches are so far up themselves that they think the long-throw beneath them.



    I would buy a limited ability player with a great long-throw for Celtic and use him in certain games, at certain times. We probably could get a better return than the likes of, Duffy, Ajeti, Klimala, Soro & the two Greeks who bear no gifts – £20m worth of dross, & four still on the payroll.

  21. The fact the Mordorites are in financial crap,just never gets mentioned on any of their blogs.Never.Why is that?Do they all just,any time they hear a word about it,stick fingers in ears,and sing the Trololo song.


    Very stupid behavior.You could easily get them to drink the”Koolade”.

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