Scott Brown, agents and Moneyball

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Scott Brown’s injury-enforced absence from the team in recent weeks has at least taken heat of his contract situation but that will change in January, when he is back in the team and available to sign a pre-contract agreement.  Neil Lennon reports that Celtic have met Scott’s terms but have declined to meet his agent’s demand.

Agent’s often have exclusive representation agreements with players which guarantee the agent a cut of any contract signed when the agreement is active.  5% of a four or five year contract for a top-earning Celtic player could easily reach £300k, or £360k including vat.  This is a lot of money for the player to pay out of his after-tax income so what commonly happens is the agent uses his exclusive deal with the player to negotiate a pay-off from the club instead of acting for the player.  Unlike the player, a club can reclaim vat and pays before, not after tax, so the same money going to the agent costs the combined player/club less.

It’s often the case, however, that the agent’s fee paid by the club has little resemblance to the percentage the agent would get representing the player.  While a player has an exclusive deal with an agent, a buying club has three deals to agree: the selling club’s fee, the player’s wages and the agent’s fee.

Big agent fees don’t necessarily mean bad business for the buyer, as the agent may well have made a deal achievable at a purchase price which would not have been otherwise possible, but clubs are typically more reticent when it comes to paying agents to renew contracts for their existing players.  One (then) SPL chairman told me he had a flat £500 tariff for such deals.

Artur Boruc concluded his last contract with Celtic without an agent.  At the time he explained that he would need an agent if he was moving club but didn’t need one to negotiate a predetermined level on the Celtic pay structure.  This would have saved Celtic money and might have earned Artur an extra bonus.

Scott Brown is not in this situation.  If he is offered a contract of around £6m over five years, after 50% tax and 12% (?) national insurance (which Celtic and staff pay…), his take home pay from the contract will be considerably less.  5% of the contract could end up looking like 14% of take home pay after vat is added.

Celtic will also be alert to the dangers of precedent.  If a player’s ‘advisor’ can get a significant pay-day out of a contract renewal there is no incentive for the player to conclude a deal with Celtic without an advisor, indeed, there is incentive to get one involved.

I’ve no information whatsoever on what is going on with Scott’s contract but the portents don’t look promising.

A couple of years ago we spoke about the excellent Why England Lose and its predecessor, Moneyball.  Two books that sought to explain how to find value in football and baseball respectively.  The Brad Pitt movie, Moneyball, based on the events analysed in the book, is now out.  Not sure making a drama out of statistics is wise but I’ll need to check it out.

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610 Comments

  1. Barrach Obampot on

    Evening CQN.

     

     

    I’m happy for Scott Brown to sign a new deal. We can recoup money if we sell on at a later date.

     

     

    Anyway, more to the point.

     

     

    Big Nan you kicking about?

  2. My dear,dear,dear,friend… Serge

     

     

    Ye are Correct..

     

     

     

    You and Ah ,pal…

     

     

    Are Engaging in a Discourse which is Based Sixy Per Cent oan Rampant Speculation

     

     

    and the Ither Forty Per Cent..is Mired in Outrageous Guesswoik!

     

     

    Howevah……..

     

     

    Ah still like Dem Odds!!

     

     

     

    Heck.. If we awe came oan here and only Discussed and Cussed Aboot

     

     

    whit We REALLY Knew anything Aboot..

     

     

    Then…

     

     

    This Blessed Forum

     

     

    Wid..

     

     

    Close Doon..

     

     

    Fur Lack of SUBJECT MATTER!!

     

     

    Right?

     

     

    Right

     

     

    Kojo

     

    yer pal.. who likes ye mair and mairer

  3. I was excited and thrilled in equal measures when we signed Scott Brown. I watched him closely in his final performance for Hibs which was in a victory over us at Easter Rd. He was strong, direct and exuded confidence.

     

     

    Sadly he’s been a massive disappointment and hasn’t come close to making the impact that I’d hoped and indeed expected. For £4m you’d expect to be someone who regularly takes games by the stuff of the neck. Instead we have a player who consistently struggles to pass the ball to a team mate. He frequently gets bookings for getting himself embroiled in situations where his behaviour borders on reckless.

     

     

    Granted he made a positive impact when Lenny realised that he was more of a hindrance than a help in central midfield. Does that merit a new contract? No, not in my eyes. However, I would like us to receive some recompense for our initial outlay.

     

     

    For this reason I’d like him to sign a contract on greatly reduced terms. A contract which would permit us the opportunity of selling him on in the not to distant future.

  4. Serge (10) Tommy Burns on

    Kojo

     

     

    Only 60/40!…..maybe 70/30 hahaha.

     

     

    Tomorrow will be an interesting day im sure.

     

     

    Well i’ll have to call it a day, Up for work in 6 & a half hours & it’s gonna be a late 1 tomorrow night with the game.

     

     

    I’ll give you a shout tomorrow before the game when Broony has signed his new contract ;-p

     

     

    Have a good day.

     

     

    Serge, HH.

  5. If the Hun go @rse up and out of SPL then the rest of the clubs and their fans must grasp the immediate opportunity to up their game

  6. Awe_Naw

     

     

    Useful link at 17:04.

     

     

    Having the odd problem when CQN is opened with IE8 – recovering the tab and having to click de-bug before it opens up.

     

     

    Will give your link a try and see if that cures it – thanks.

  7. The problem with Scott Brown’s contract is not to do with agents etc it is to do with timing. We can be held to ransom so we will be.Simple. We should have agreed an extension before the last window and if for any reason – agents fees or wage demands – we did not get a signature we should have put him on the market during that window. If we set that as a precedent then players might learn that the pre contract agreement option is unlikely to be open to them.

  8. This snippet may interest ole Cadizzy-

     

     

    ‘British singer-songwriter Elvis Costello has told fans not to buy a pricey limited edition box set of his music on sale next month, recommending they purchase some Freddy and the Dreamers instead.

     

     

    Costello, real name Declan MacManus, said in an official blog post that the online retail price for The Return Of The Spectacular Spinning Songbook of $202.66, or 212.99 pounds in Britain, “appears to be either a misprint or a satire”.

     

     

    “If you want to buy something special for your loved one at this time of seasonal giving, we suggest, ‘Who Wears Short Shorts’- a cute little imitation pair of baggy shorts containing 10 re-mastered albums by one of the most beautiful and loving revolutionaries who ever lived — Freddy Garrity’

     

     

    The music, he added, was “vastly superior”, and cost less than $150.

     

     

    While Costello’s comments may embarrass his record label, they have also generated considerable publicity for the “super deluxe” edition, which is available from next week.